You will read some DFS articles for the final week of the NFL regular season that tell you to “scale back your play” or “don’t play cash games” since there is an extra layer of analysis and uncertainty that comes with playing this week. However, I’d argue that the extra layer of analysis makes this DFS slate one of the most fun and potentially profitable weeks of the year.
When analyzing this week for DFS is more about which teams and players have something to play for than it is who has the best matchups. Here is the list of teams that are fighting for either a playoff spot or playoff position in Week 18: Colts, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers, Patriots, Saints, Bills, 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals. Players from these teams should make up most (if not all) of your DraftKings and FanDuel Cash game lineups this week.
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Kyler Murray (ARI): $7,400 vs. SEA
The Cardinals have clinched a playoff spot but can still win the division and get a home game in the first round, so Murray has plenty to play for this week against the Seahawks. Murray has posted at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
You will read some DFS articles for the final week of the NFL regular season that tell you to “scale back your play” or “don’t play cash games” since there is an extra layer of analysis and uncertainty that comes with playing this week. However, I’d argue that the extra layer of analysis makes this DFS slate one of the most fun and potentially profitable weeks of the year.
When analyzing this week for DFS is more about which teams and players have something to play for than it is who has the best matchups. Here is the list of teams that are fighting for either a playoff spot or playoff position in Week 18: Colts, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers, Patriots, Saints, Bills, 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals. Players from these teams should make up most (if not all) of your DraftKings and FanDuel Cash game lineups this week.
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Kyler Murray (ARI): $7,400 vs. SEA
The Cardinals have clinched a playoff spot but can still win the division and get a home game in the first round, so Murray has plenty to play for this week against the Seahawks. Murray has posted at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
In a game with the highest Vegas total on the main slate, the Seahawks rank 27th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against the pass according to FootballOutsiders. They have allowed 277 passing yards (28th) and 1.6 touchdown passes (20th) per game over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Josh Allen (BUF): $8,100 vs. NYJ, Taysom Hill (NO): $6,200 vs. ATL
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford (LAR): $7,400 vs. SF
I know, I know, Stafford has not been good the last few weeks. I will continue to try to put a lineup together that gets me up to Josh Allen, but for now, the $1,400 salary savings with Stafford makes a big difference.
On the plus side for Stafford is the Rams/49ers game is the one with the most playoff implication on both sides that is on the Sunday main slate. The game has a fairly tight line and one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate. The 49ers have been very good against the run (2nd DVOA) but have been below average against the pass (18th DVOA).
Other notables: Josh Allen (BUF): $8,800 vs. NYJ, Kyler Murray (ARI): $8,400 vs. SEA
Running Backs
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,300 vs. ATL
While Jonathan Taylor ($9,300) is a fine play, I give a slight edge to Kamara who costs $1,000 less and is more involved in the passing game which is a plus on a PPR site like DraftKings. With the Saints holding onto an outside shot at the playoffs and with Mark Ingram questionable to play, Kamara should get a heavy workload in the finale against the Falcons.
Kamara piled up 104 total yards and a score in the previous meeting with the Falcons. The Falcons rank 30th DVOA against the run this season and have allowed 97 yards (23rd) and 0.9 touchdowns (25th) per game to running backs.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB): $5,300 vs. CAR
The injuries in the Buccaneers backfield continue with Ronald Jones (ankle) looking unlikely to play this week. That leaves Vaughn and the recently acquired Le’Veon Bell to handle the backfield duties against the Panthers.
With the Buccaneers fighting for the #2 seed in the NFC, they will look to secure a win any way they can. The Buccaneers are more than a touchdown favorite which should allow them to commit to the running game after jumping out to an early lead. Vaughn had 11 opportunities compared to six for Bell last week. Keep an eye on the news regarding how the Buccaneers backfield snaps and touches will be distributed.
Other notables: Jonathan Taylor (IND): $9,300 vs. JAC, Devin Singletary (BUF): $6,000 vs. NYJ, Jaret Patterson (WAS): $5,300 vs. NYG
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor (IND): $10,200 vs. JAC
Taylor has been smashing all season and should finish with a bang in the last game of the regular season in a game where the Colts need a win to get in the playoffs. Taylor has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of the last eight games and scored in 12 of his last 13 games.
The Jaguars have allowed 119 rushing yards (27th) and 1.2 rushing scores (28th) per game to running backs over the last five weeks. In a week that has some uncertainty, take the certainty that Taylor will hit triple-digits with at least one score.
D’Onta Foreman (TEN): $6,900 vs. HOU
While the Titans await a potential return of Derrick Henry for the playoffs, it would be in their best interests to win this week against the Texans to secure the #1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. That should mean leaning on Foreman as a double-digit favorite against the Texans.
The Texans run defense has allowed 124 rushing yards (31st) and 1.6 touchdowns (32nd) on the ground per game to running backs over the last five weeks. Meanwhile, Foreman has stepped up with over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games while also scoring twice during that stretch.
Other notables: Devin Singletary (BUF): $6,700 vs. NYJ, Jaret Patterson (WAS): $6,600 vs. NYG, Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB): $5,900 vs. CAR
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,700 vs. SF
While I prefer to pay up for Taylor on FanDuel, I’ll look to slot in Kupp for cash games on DraftKings with the PPR scoring. You all know the drill with Kupp this season by now, a target monster who has posted at least 90 yards in all but one game this season.
The Rams have plenty to play for this week including the division title and the #2 seed in the NFC. They also happen to be in one of the only games on the main slate where both teams have playoff implications on the line which should lead to a competitive game throughout.
Ray-Ray McCloud (PIT): $3,800 vs. BAL
With Diontae Johnson going on the Covid list, there should be plenty of targets opened up for the remaining Steelers wideouts in a favorable matchup against the Ravens. McCloud has already been starting to get increased targets with 18 over the last two games.
The Steelers still have an outside shot at making the playoffs but must win to have a chance and the best way to attack the Ravens defense is through the air. The Ravens have allowed 14.6 receptions (27th) for 216 yards (32nd) and 2.0 touchdowns (31st) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,100 vs. CHI, Tyler Lockett (SEA): $6,400 vs. ARI, Cyril Grayson (TB): $4,400 vs. CAR
FanDuel
Mike Evans (TB): $7,800 vs. CAR
There are not a lot of players left that Tom Brady trusts on the Buccaneers’ offense with all of their injuries and mid-game walkoffs. That should lead to a lot of looks for Evans this week against a Panthers secondary that will be without their top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore.
With the Buccaneers still fighting for playoff positioning, Evans should at a minimum get the 54 yards needed to reach 1,000 for the season and should see plenty more targets including in the red zone.
Chase Claypool (PIT): $5,800 vs. BAL
With Diontae Johnson going on the Covid list, there should be plenty of targets opened up for the remaining Steelers wideouts in a favorable matchup against the Ravens. Claypool saw 15 targets in a game earlier this season that Johnson missed.
The Steelers still have an outside shot at making the playoffs but must win to have a chance and the best way to attack the Ravens defense is through the air. The Ravens have allowed 14.6 receptions (27th) for 216 yards (32nd) and 2.0 touchdowns (31st) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Stefon Diggs (BUF): $7,700 vs. NYJ, Darnell Mooney (CHI): $6,300 vs. MIN, Julio Jones (TEN): $5,700 vs. HOU
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Austin Hooper (CLE): $3,600 vs. CIN
Hooper makes the list as the Browns will likely be without tight end David Njoku this week. In the one game Hooper played without Njoku this season, he saw six targets with five catches for 30 yards and a score.
Hooper could be a popular target for backup quarterback Case Keenum while facing the Bengals who are expected to rest some of their starters. The Bengals also haven’t been able to stop the tight end position over the last five weeks allowing 8.6 receptions (32nd) for 98 yards (32nd) and 0.6 touchdowns (26th) per game.
Other notables: Zach Ertz (ARI): $5,300 vs. SEA, Cole Kmet (CHI): $3,400 vs. MIN
FanDuel
Zach Ertz (ARI): $5,600 vs. SEA
Ertz continues to be one of the top targets for Murray with DeAndre Hopkins out. Ertz has seen at least nine targets in each of the last three games. He posted a huge day with eight catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns the last time the Cardinals faced the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have allowed 61 yards (27th) and 0.8 touchdowns (31st) per game to tight ends over the last five weeks. Getting a touchdown will be key for Ertz to pay off on FanDuel but he should have a good chance for one in this matchup.
Other notables: George Kittle (SF): $6,900 vs. LAR, Dawson Knox (BUF): $6,000 vs. NYJ
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Browns (CLE): $2,600 vs. CIN
The Bengals have already stated that they will not play Joe Burrow and will also be without Joe Mixon due to Covid protocols. Look for more offensive players to get the week off, which should allow the Browns defense to flourish at home.
Other notables: Vikings (MIN): $2,900 vs. CHI, Cardinals (ARI): $2,700 vs. SEA
FanDuel
Steelers (PIT): $3,500 vs. BAL
The Steelers defense leads the league in sacks (3.25 per game) this season and have generated 4.4 per game (2nd) over the last five weeks. They will face a Ravens team that ranks last in sacks allowed (3.38 per game) this season and have given up 3.6 per game (30th) over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Buccaneers (TB): $4,200 vs. CAR, Vikings (MIN): $3,700 vs. CHI
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