What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The advantage of drafting first overall is selecting the best available player. That may sound obvious, but who that player is will depend on what kind of league you play in.
For example, a QB in a Superflex league will be the most important player. Therefore, you’ll want to draft the best available QB with the first overall pick. Josh Allen has finished as QB1 the past two seasons and is ranked as such this year. In this case, he would be the optimal pick at 1.01. In a league with standard rosters (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, etc.), an RB is recommended at first overall.
The disadvantage of having the first pick is that your next pick won’t come until the end of the second round if you’re in a snake draft, which “wraps” the picks from one through 12, then the 12 spot picks twice then the draft wraps backward. If you play in a 12-team league, 22 players will be drafted between your first and second pick. However, you will be rewarded for your wait with two consecutive picks.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The advantage of drafting first overall is selecting the best available player. That may sound obvious, but who that player is will depend on what kind of league you play in.
For example, a QB in a Superflex league will be the most important player. Therefore, you’ll want to draft the best available QB with the first overall pick. Josh Allen has finished as QB1 the past two seasons and is ranked as such this year. In this case, he would be the optimal pick at 1.01. In a league with standard rosters (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, etc.), an RB is recommended at first overall.
The disadvantage of having the first pick is that your next pick won’t come until the end of the second round if you’re in a snake draft, which “wraps” the picks from one through 12, then the 12 spot picks twice then the draft wraps backward. If you play in a 12-team league, 22 players will be drafted between your first and second pick. However, you will be rewarded for your wait with two consecutive picks.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.01 in 2022?
The recommended strategy is to draft the best available player (relative to team needs, as we discussed). Most fantasy managers choose to go after the top RB here. This is because they gain points on the ground and through the air. Additionally, they are more likely than any other player on offense (other than a QB) to touch the ball. Therefore, they have the highest fantasy ceiling of any position.
Another reason RBs are drafted so heavily early on is because of how fickle/injury prone the position tends to be. Additionally, there is a significant disparity between the fantasy output of a bonafide RB1 and an RB2, unlike with the WR position, where you are significantly more likely to find a WR capable of delivering WR1 production in the WR2/3 pool or could get by with two high-end WR2s.
Matthew Berry mentioned in his Draft Day Manifesto that from 2010 to 2020, the drop-off in total points from RB5 to RB10 was 18.4%, while the drop-off from WR5 to WR10 was 12%. It may not sound like much, but it is pretty significant.
Ideally, your selection will include an RB who will likely receive ample weekly volume and is involved as a receiver.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
This year, the consensus suggestion at first overall is the reigning RB1 from 2021, Jonathan Taylor (22.5 touches per game, 20.8 PPG in 2021), although it is ultimately a matter of preference.
Other acceptable substitutes would include Christian McCaffery (1,497 receiving yards and an average of 23.2 PPG in his last 26 games) or Derrick Henry who makes up for his lack of receptions with massive rushing volume and productivity (20+ touches in 22 of his last 24 games, averaging 23 PPG in 2021). However, those players are widely ranked below Taylor because of their recent injury history.
If you wanted to minimize that risk and take your chances on an RB later (a more risky strategy), WR Cooper Kupp (21.5 PPG in 2021) would be a great pick at 1.01.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
Dalvin Cook (RB5). There are injury concerns, and then there’s Cook, who is a walking injury concern. He is all but guaranteed to miss at least one game each season. He has missed 25 of 81 possible games (30%) in his NFL career. Of course, he is widely considered worth the risk because of his on-field production (18.8 PPG 2019-2021), but in fantasy football, the best quality is availability. You can’t have your RB1 hanging you out to dry in the fantasy football playoffs.
It is hard to advise against drafting a player as talented as Cook, but he is one of the main reasons the handcuff strategy is essential.
Targeting the backup of your RB1 later in the draft is the strategy referred to as handcuffing. This allows you to have an insurance policy if your RB1 succumbs to a multi-week injury. Most handcuffs can be secured with your closing picks. However, some backups are hotter commodities than others (Kareem Hunt, RB29) and will require you to strike earlier.
Cook’s backup, Alexander Mattison, has been a shining example of how valuable a handcuff can be. In the last six games that Cook has missed with injury, Mattison averaged 20.1 PPG.
What is the plan of attack for rounds two-three based on the possible first-round scenarios?
By the end of round two, every RB1 (in terms of expert consensus ranking) will likely have been selected, in contrast to WR1s where it is statistically likely for a top-12 option to still be available for you. That’s not to say there’s no chance an RB you select here won’t end up performing as an RB1, but it is much more of a risk to rely on them as your top RB. Again, it is a matter of preference.
Remember, you will also have the very next pick, so pick two players you think are the best fits for your team. In an ideal world, you will land a WR1 and a quality RB2.
But every draft is different, and what’s best for your team depends entirely on context.
Sometimes Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews will fall to you. In this instance, you can lock in a TE1 and forget about the position for the rest of the draft. This strategy has proved highly effective in the past (Kelce finished as TE1 from 2015 to 2021). In this scenario, you should draft your next pick’s best available RB or WR.
You could opt for a QB instead of a TE here. Many fantasy managers adopt this strategy, although it is not recommended. QBs are easily streamable depending on matchups. Not to mention, a QB1 can be acquired much later in the draft. While it is tempting to secure the highest-ranked QB this early in the draft, there should be about eight high-end QB1 options still available. There is only one spot in your lineup for a QB. While you can, you should try to build depth with the best available RBs/WRs, which you will start multiple of each week.
Remember: it will be another 18-24 picks before your next selection. Next time around, the quality of available players will have notably declined. So choose your second/third players wisely.
Suggestions for RBs who should be available in the late-second/early-third round include James Conner (ECR: RB15, finished as RB5 in 2021, scored 18 TDs splitting the backfield with Chase Edmonds, who is now in Miami), Ezekiel Elliot (ECR: RB19, RB6 in 2021, AVG finish RB6) or Saquon Barkley (ECR: RB14, RB1 in 2018, in 2021 averaged 17.8 PPG in games with at least 18 touches).
Suggestions for WRs who should be available in the late-second/early-third round include Deebo Samuel (ECR: WR7, WR3 in 2021, AVG 18.2 PPG), Keenan Allen (ADP WR11, AVG 149 targets and 101.8 receptions per season since 2016) and Mike Evans (ECR: WR9, WR9 in 2021, 27 TDs in 32 (regular season) games with Tom Brady).
Superflex:
It’s likely more QBs have been selected than your average draft, so there should be several RB1s still in play. So now is the time to strike. Some options who may realistically be available include Alvin Kamara (RB9, average finish RB4 with a career AVG of 21.3 ppg), Leonard Fournette (RB10, RB2 in total points weeks 4-14 before injury) or Aaron Jones (AVGs 13 TDs per season since 2019, AVGs 25.7 PPG in games without Davante Adams).
You should probably double up on RBs here as quality WRs should be available in high quantities later on. However, securing your QB2 with your third pick could be a good idea. It is just a suggestion, but if you were able to pair Josh Allen with a QB like Tom Brady or Russell Wilson (notoriously durable options) your QB room is likely to be the best in the league and is essentially guaranteed 40+ points per week. However, there are several intriguing QB2 options to choose from later on (Trey Lance, Derek Carr, Mac Jones).
Who are some targets in Rounds 4-7?
As for RBs, the first name should be Ezekiel Elliot. Zeke has been seen slipping to the fourth round in many situations. As mentioned above, his average fantasy finish is RB6. He was RB6 last year, playing with a partially torn PCL. If he is available in the fourth round, do not hesitate. Josh Jacobs (RB12 in 2021) and JK Dobbins (head of the backfield for the run-heaviest team in the NFL from 2019 to 2021) are also worth mentioning.
As for WRs, Chris Godwin is likely to be available because he is expected to begin the season on the injured reserve list (IR), but he could be back as early as mid-September and would pay off greatly at his current ADP. Michael Thomas (WR1 in 2019, current record holder for receptions in a single season) and Terry McLaurin (has dealt with subpar QB play throughout his career, but has managed 1,000+ yards and 130+ targets in each of his last two seasons) are also names to consider in the Round 4-5 range.
If you have yet to select a TE, George Kittle is a name to look for. If he is still available, it is probably your last chance to secure a true TE1. The next time you pick, he will be long gone.
You could wait longer for a QB, but if someone like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts (rushing QBs are fantasy cheat codes) are available now (Rounds 5-7), now would be a good time to strike on them. If you are comfortable with your starters/have decent depth when it comes time to decide, the 20+ PPG these players provide could be highly beneficial. However, players like Russell Wilson and Trey Lance could offer the same benefits and are being drafted significantly later.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
By now, if you’ve been following the strategy, you should, at the very least, have solid RB depth. If you’ve been able to resist the temptation at QB up to this point, you will ideally have three RBs, three WRs and a TE1. Or maybe four RBs and three WRs (or vice versa). If so, now would be a great time to look at your QB/TE options.
If you play with D/STs or kickers, you should not worry about these positions until the very end of the draft. Often times they are highly volatile and depend on circumstances outside their control, such as matchups, strength of schedule (SOS), or, in a kickers case, the offense they’re attached to’s ability to move the ball/score.
Focus on building your depth by round 10 because player quality/projected production will have substantially declined to the point you are tossing darts after that.
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