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20 Players to Avoid at ADP From The Most Accurate NFL Experts (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 14, 2022
Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson has a bit more competition in the Washington backfield this season.

It’s important to know who to target and who to pass on when it comes to your fantasy football draft. To get a better sense of players to avoid and others to reach for, use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and compare them to a player’s average draft position (ADP). Players that are going higher in ADP versus ECR are likely those that you want to reconsider at their current cost. On the flipside, players that experts are higher on versus ADP are those that could be worth reaching for, or at least targeting at their current ADP.

And you can use our expert accuracy rankings to help determine which experts to select when you are building your custom fantasy football draft cheat sheets.

Here’s a look at players the experts are avoiding at their current ADP.

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

20 Players to Avoid at ADP From The Most Accurate NFL Experts

RK PLAYER NAME TEAM POS ECR VS. ADP
4 LAC RB4 -2
7 LAR WR2 -2
17 CLE RB10 -4
24 DEN RB14 -4
26 MIA WR9 -5
38 LAR RB20 -6
46 WAS RB23 -8
50 LV RB24 -6
51 SF TE4 -9
56 LV TE5 -7
64 ARI WR27 -6
68 KC RB28 -7
77 BUF WR32 -6
80 DET TE8 -18
84 MIN WR33 -12
86 TB WR34 -20
100 LV WR40 -19
102 ARI WR42 -16
111 TEN WR45 -11
122 JAC RB45 -15

 

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).

It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season.

And It’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)

The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.

Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.

FantasyPros Staff Rankings

Expert Consensus Rankings

Fantasy Football Player Profiles

Fantasy Football Projections

FantasyPros Consensus Average Draft Position (ADP)

Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Fantasy Football Draft Research

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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