Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 9 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

What a difference Tyreek Hill has made for Tua. The Miami quarterback averaged 122.2 air yards per game and posted a 4.1 aDOT last season. This year he has averaged 189.8 air yards per game and a 6.1 aDOT. Meanwhile, the matchup against the Detroit Lions was excellent for fantasy players with Tagovailoa on their roster. His 318 air yards last were 44 higher than his previous season high in Week 2. Tua had 382 passing yards in the game, meaning 83.3% of his yards were in the air and not after the catch. Furthermore, his aDOT was the second-highest last week, while his season-long aDOT (6.1) is the highest in the NFL.

Not only did Tua have his best air yards performance of the season, but he finished with 122 more yards than any other quarterback last week. However, Brissett has an excellent performance too. He had the highest aDOT in Week 8. The veteran had a 4.4 aDOT this season before last week, averaging 146 air yards per game. Furthermore, he had a 3.7 aDOT with the Miami Dolphins last year. With Amari Cooper getting more comfortable with the offense, expect Brissett to continue to push the ball downfield like he did this past week.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Another week is in the books, and the Dolphins have two top air yard producers again. Hill led all wide receivers in air yards for the third time this season in Week 8. It also marked the second time in the past three weeks that he led all wide receivers in that department. The veteran has 327 air yards over the past three weeks, 107 more than any other wide receiver. Furthermore, his 327 air yards over the past three weeks would rank as the 21st-most in the NFL for the entire year. Everyone who said Tyreek would struggle without Patrick Mahomes is eating those words today.

Fantasy players who drafted Hopkins are doing cartwheels, given how the veteran has played this season. After missing the first six games with a suspension, Hopkins has been unstoppable over the past two weeks. He has 230 air yards in the past two games, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, the veteran’s air yards account for 87.8% of his total receiving yards. More importantly, Hopkins has a 37.5% target share, the second-highest in the NFL during that span. Things will change in Arizona when Marquise Brown returns from a foot injury, however, Hopkins is an elite plug-and-play WR1 until Brown is healthy.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Week 8 was a wild one at the tight end position. Pitts found the end zone for the second time in the past three weeks but also had only his second game with more than 20 air yards this season. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews left the matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers early. The rookie Isaiah Likely played well for the veteran and totaled the second-most air yards among tight ends while finishing fourth at the position in targets. Conklin had a strong performance with Corey Davis out of the lineup, leading all tight ends with 10 targets this week. However, his production should return to normal when the veteran receiver returns.

Meanwhile, a star is emerging before our eyes in Denver. Dulcich missed the first five games of the year with a hamstring injury but has been fantastic since making his career debut in Week 6. Over the past three weeks, the rookie has averaged 5.7 targets and 36.7 air yards per game (6.5 aDOT). However, removing his season debut in Week 6, the former UCLA star has been excellent the past two games. Dulcich is second among tight ends in air yards (85) and third in targets (14) over the past two weeks, finishing top-10 in air yards both weeks. Fantasy players struggling at tight end need to add the Broncos rookie immediately.

The Top Five Underperformers

Is it too soon to call for Josh McDaniels to get fired? The Las Vegas Raiders offense was a disaster last week. They scored zero points and struggled to cross midfield, let alone find the end zone. Furthermore, Adams had only five targets in the game compared to eight for Mack Hollins and nine for Foster Moreau. More frustrating is that the veteran receiver had negative air yards and ended the game with only one reception. The Las Vegas offense was supposed to be a fantasy goldmine. Instead, it has turned into a big pile of trash. Fantasy players should continue to start Adams every week, but the team’s performance in Week 8 is disheartening.

While the Los Angeles Rams continue to struggle to win games, their offense has started to shift. Over the first five games of the year, Higbee averaged 9.6 targets and 20.2 air yards per game (2.1 aDOT). Meanwhile, Allen Robinson averaged 4.6 targets and 14.6 air yards per game (3.2 aDOT) during those five games. However, the tight end has only eight targets and two air yards (0.3 aDOT) over the past two weeks. At the same time, the veteran receiver had 13 targets and 98 air yards (7.5 aDOT) during that span. We will see what happens in Week 9, but Higbee’s days of getting elite volume might be over.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.