Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 16 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

After getting benched, an injury to Mike White forced Wilson back into the starting lineup for the Jets. While his on-the-field play was hot and cold, the second-year quarterback played well for fantasy players. He ended the week as the QB9 but led the league with 268 air yards. Yet, Wilson finished the week 12th in pass attempts with 35. His 7.7 aDOT was the highest in the league, nearly two yards more than the second-place quarterback. By comparison, Wilson averaged only 95.1 air yards per game and a 3.5 aDOT over the first seven games of the year. Which version of the quarterback will show up Thursday night?

On Thursday night, Wilson will take on the Jaguars. In this matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, we will see one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. Lawrence has been the QB2 over the past two weeks, averaging 30.6 fantasy points per game. At the same time, the former Clemson star has averaged 198 air yards per game and a 4.7 aDOT. By comparison, Lawrence averaged only 140.4 air yards per game and a 4.0 aDOT over the first 12 games this year. With a matchup against a tough New York defense this week, will Lawrence rise to the challenge or struggle?

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard about Hurts’ injured shoulder and the possibility that he won’t play this week. However, he showed no signs of the injury last week against the Chicago Bears. Brown and Smith finished in the top six in air yards last week. Furthermore, Brown has the fifth-most air yards this season, while Smith has the 25th-most. However, can fantasy players trust them with Gardner Minshew under center? In his two starts last season, the former sixth-round pick averaged only 104.5 air yards per game and a 3.6 aDOT. While those numbers aren’t ideal, fantasy players should still start both wide receivers this week, even if Minshew is under center.

Everyone panicked when the Jets announced that White wouldn’t play against the Detroit Lions last week. Despite the quarterback change, Wilson continued to shine. In the three games White started, the rookie receiver averaged 72.7 air yards per game and a 7.3 aDOT. Wilson had 89 air yards and a 9.9 aDOT last week by comparison. However, the former Ohio State star averaged only 23.7 air yards per game and a 4.4 aDOT over the first seven games with Wilson under center. With White out again this week, can the rookie receiver take advantage of a struggling Jacksonville secondary?

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Over the past two weeks, Knox has been the TE2, averaging 15.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, he has the most air yards at the position, with 82. His 9.3 aDOT has also been solid and well above his season average (4.9). Over his first 11 games this season, the veteran tight end averaged only 18.6 air yards per game and a 4.7 aDOT. His recent hot streak isn’t surprising, given how well Buffalo’s passing attack has played. However, Knox faces a tough matchup in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears. They have held tight ends to only 11 air yards per game and a 2.9 aDOT over their past five contests.

All aboard the Okonkwo hype train! The rookie tight end has played well over the last seven weeks, averaging 18.9 air yards per game and a 4.7 aDOT. More importantly, he produced those numbers while averaging only four targets per game. Furthermore, Okonkwo has taken his play to another level over the past three weeks. During that span, he has averaged 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. By comparison, Kelce has averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game during that span. Over the past three weeks, the rookie has averaged 26.3 air yards per game and a 4.9 aDOT. If it’s not too late, trade for Okonkwo in your dynasty leagues.

The Top Five Underperformers

While the Cardinals were without Kyler Murray and had a difficult matchup against the Denver Broncos, Brown was a massive fantasy bust last week for fantasy players. He had only 3.9 half-point PPR fantasy points, a season-low. Yet, Brown has seen at least eight targets in every game he’s played since Week 1. While last week’s matchup wasn’t ideal, the change at quarterback was the problem for Brown. In the seven games with Murray under center, the veteran receiver averaged 50.4 air yards per game and a 4.9 aDOT. He has only 25 air yards and a 1.6 aDOT over the past two weeks with Colt McCoy and Trace McSorley at quarterback. Fantasy players can drop the veteran receiver if they need the roster spot.

The Texans haven’t had Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins for the past two games. In Week 14, Moore had 79 air yards, a 7.2 aDOT, and scored 17.4 half-point PPR fantasy points against Dallas Cowboys. After his excellent performance, the veteran receiver was a popular streaming option last week, with Cooks and Collins unable to play again. However, Moore struggled despite a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling 25 air yards, a 2.8 aDOT, and 6.2 fantasy points. The Texans face the Tennessee Titans this week, who have surrendered 34.4 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, the most in the NFL. If Cooks and Collins are out again this week, can fantasy players trust Moore, given his excellent matchup?

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.