The 2023 NFL Draft was pure chaos. Leading up to the draft, no one really knew what any of the teams at the top of the draft were going to do. Once things got started on Thursday night, there were surprises and trades galore. QBs Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud went No. 1 and No. 2 overall to the Panthers and Texans, respectively, while Anthony Richardson was drafted by the Colts at No. 4. Fellow QB Will Levis, however, fell out of the first round entirely and landed with the Titans in the second round. The Lions shocked everyone by taking Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs, while the Seahawks made a similarly puzzling move to take UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet in the second round a year after drafting Kenneth Walker.

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NFL Draft Winners & Losers

1. Who is the rookie whose stock is on the rise the most by virtue of the situation he walks into (team/depth/etc) and why? Also, how early should he go in a rookie draft?

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Running back Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted 12th overall by the Detroit Lions, and the team proceeded to trade D’Andre Swift shortly after. The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his 199-pound frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency. He’s a no-doubt top-three pick in regular rookie dynasty drafts. I’ve seen him go as high as fourth overall in Superflex rookie drafts. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)
“I’m surprised more people aren’t bumping up the stock of Jonathan Mingo, after the Panthers invested heavily into procuring Bryce Young to steer the ship. Typically a team taking a QB #1 overall will invest in a few new toys to pair up, and Carolina wasted no time immediately selecting Mingo in the 2nd at #39 overall. That’s a premium investment for a player who can step on the field and be the WR1 from day one. Mingo has great size and speed and has shown a propensity to make difficult contested catches. Young will be far and away the best quarterback he has ever played with, and for what amounts to a dart throw based on ADP, your chances of striking gold are high.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

“A player that not many had inside the Top 36 prior to the draft, Jonathan Mingo’s landing spot is one that could provide value early for Dynasty managers. The receiving room for the Panthers is currently occupied by declining veterans (Adam Thielen/D.J. Chark) and unproven talent (Terrace Marshall). Along with the new face of the franchise, Bryce Young, Mingo has the skillset and size to make an impact early on. Developing a rapport with Young early on during practices will be Key for Mingo as he looks to stand out and compete for a starting spot in the offense as a rookie. With his rookie draft stock rising, look for him to be selected in the mid-to-late second round of drafts. ”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
“Jordan Addison landed in the perfect place to boost his fantasy value in the short term. He’ll have the benefit of playing across from one of, if not the best, wide receiver in the game currently in Justin Jefferson, and Addison runs pro-ready routes already. Given the targets left behind by Adam Thielen, it’s easy to see a world where Addison racks up at least 120 targets in his rookie season. ”
– Anthony Corrente (The Dynasty Drive)

Devon Achane (RB – MIA)
“Devon Achane could have become an afterthought in rookie drafts if he’d landed in an unfavorable spot or slipped into Day 3 of the draft, but he’s a hand-in-glove fit for the Dolphins and Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone running scheme. Raheem Mostert had a mid-career breakout in that scheme when McDaniel was the running game coordinator in San Francisco and played well in Miami last year, but Mostert is 31 and has an extensive injury history. Achane is a younger, more electric version of Mostert and is a far better pass catcher. The concern with Achane is that he’s 5-9 and 188 pounds, but he averaged 19.6 carries and 23.2 touches a game for Texas A&M last season, and his contact balance for a smaller back reminds me of Warrick Dunn. It’s going to be fun to see how McDaniel deploys Achane and his 4.32 speed. Achane is worth picking in the late first round of 1QB dynasty rookie drafts or in the early second round of superflex drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“The Miami Dolphins have a type, and that type is fast. Devon Achane landing in Miami is among the better landing spots for running backs in this year’s draft. The Dolphins are a team built on speed and explosiveness when in the open field and Achane can confidently check both boxes. After rushing for over 1,100 yards and scoring eight times in only ten starts, he fits how the ‘Fins want to attack offensively. He bumps up into the RB4/5 range in rookie drafts. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
“Snub your nose at Puka Nacua all you want. I’m not hearing it. Nacua’s profile put some extra shimmy in my step during the predraft process. Once I saw him fall to the fifth round of the NFL Draft, I was getting worried he could get buried on a depth chart. In step, the Los Angeles Rams and their lackluster depth chart to the rescue. Nacua only has to beat out Ben Skowronek to start in three-wide sets and Van Jefferson to emerge as the team’s third receiving option. Nacua could be the second coming of Robert Woods in Los Angeles. Not only did he rank second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets per PFF), but he finished his collegiate career with 357 rushing yards (9.2 yards per carry). I’ll take Nacua in the early third round of rookie drafts. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
“Robinson is the best running back over several draft classes due to his combination of size, speed, contact balance, elusiveness and ability as a receiver. While Tyler Allgeier rushed for over 1,000 yards as a fifth-round rookie last season, Robinson immediately becomes the clear featured back in one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses. Not only should he be 1.01 in rookie drafts, but he’s now a top-three fantasy RB in my 2023 redraft rankings. In turn, Allgeier is one of the biggest fantasy losers in the draft.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Fitz’s Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (Day 2 | Day 3)

2. What veteran player walks away as the biggest winner based on the new addition(s) to his team and how does it affect how you value him this season?

Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
“Time to stop sleeping on QB Geno Smith. The 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle’s fully-entrenched starter finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. And all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB16 is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early best ball ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Not only did the Seattle Seahawks extend Geno Smith, but they also did not draft any competition for him. Instead, they drafted the consensus rookie WR1 in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and they also added running back Zach Charbonnet to go along with some offensive line help. Smith gets a bump into middle QB2 territory for superflex leagues and worthy late-round pick in best ball drafts.”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
“Tony Pollard got nearly 200 carries and was still 30 behind Ezekiel Elliott in the Cowboys’ pecking order. Even though Dallas may resign Zeke, they are not standing in his way of leaving, and they took the feel-good story of the draft in Deuce Vaughn – who is still undersized for the next level. I learned my lesson with Donnel Pumphrey, and can’t see Vaughn being any kind of threat to Pollard surpassing 250+ carries in 2023.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

“Assuming he’s fully recovered from the late season leg injury he suffered, the stars have lined up for a career season from Tony Pollard. The most notable addition the Cowboys made at the running back position this offseason was Deuce Vaughn, and he doesn’t figure to threaten much of Pollard’s workload. I’m expecting pretty gaudy numbers from Pollard, and a top-five finish at the position is within reach. ”
– Anthony Corrente (The Dynasty Drive)

“This has more to do with what the team has not done in the offseason and in the NFL Draft. Tony Pollard, as of now, is the clear-cut RB1 in Dallas on an offense that will lean more run-heavy in 2023 under new OC Brian Schottenheimer. Last season, while splitting reps (50.9% snap share) with Ezekiel Elliot, Pollard’s 15.6 FPPG was enough to land him as the RB8 on the year. With less completion for touches, expect more productivity from Pollard in 2023 with a ceiling as a Top 5 RB in fantasy.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

“Tony Pollard: It was such a cool moment to see Deuce Vaughn’s father, a Cowboys scout, share that Dallas was drafting him, but from a fantasy perspective, Pollard benefits from how long the Cowboys waited to draft a running back (Vaughn, 212th pick). Pollard set career highs in 2022 with 232 touches, 1,378 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. It’s likely he’ll handle an even larger workload in 2023, especially if the team doesn’t bring back Ezekiel Elliott, which could allow him to repeat as a top-eight RB (half-PPR PPG).”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“There hasn’t been much talk about what the Colts’ selection of Anthony Richardson could do for Jonathan Taylor. Running backs often get an efficiency boost when they play with fleet-footed quarterbacks because defenders have to pay heed to the possibility that the QB will take off and run. That uncertainty can leave defenders flat-footed when the quarterback hands the ball off to his running back. I can think of no better example of this phenomenon than when the plodding Alfred Morris ran for 1,613 yards and 13 TDs (averaging 4.8 yards per carry) in 2012, the year Washington QB Robert Griffin III was a dual-threat rookie sensation. Taylor is much faster, much better RB than Morris. If Richardson quickly becomes a credible passer and can keep safeties from cheating up toward the line of scrimmage, Taylor could go berserk this season.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Jared Goff (QB – DET)
“During the draft, the Detroit Lions filled the skill cupboard back to the brim for Jared Goff. With Jameson Williams missing time to open the season, Goff looked to only have Amon-Ra St. Brown as a dependable weapon, with D’Andre Swift regulated to only part-time status last year. The team jettisoned Swift but added Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs during the draft. Goff started last season with two top-ten fantasy weeks before cratering during the middle of the season. Goff bounced back down the home stretch with four top-seven weekly fantasy finishes over his final six games. Goff is a mid-QB2 who could pull a Kirk Cousins‘ and somehow will himself to a top-12 fantasy finish this season if everything falls just right. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers (Day 2 | Day 3)

3. What veteran player walks away as the biggest loser based on the new addition(s) to his team and how does it affect how you value him this season?

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
“Kenneth Walker was easily my biggest loser during the 2023 NFL Draft. The Seahawks rusher looked PRIME to flirt with potential bell-cow status, but that was immediately nuked after the team drafted Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round. It hurts Walker in the rankings because Charbonnet boasts a three-down skill set and his 52nd overall draft capital suggests that he will see solid work in some capacity. Walker falls from my top-10 into the middle RB2 territory as a result.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Simply put, the Seahawks drafting Zach Charbonnet took a lot of wind out of the sails for Kenneth Walker to improve upon his strong rookie season, which saw him finish at RB16 in FPPG (13.5). Relatively unused until the injury to Rashaad Penny, Walker used his high volume (255 touches) to give fantasy managers a solid floor of production each week. Now with Charbonnet in the fold, this backfield becomes a committee, and Walker will have to become more efficient with his touches. Something that was an issue for him in 2022 (RB19 in yards created/touch with 2.97). Prior to the draft, Walker was a sure fire RB1 in drafts, but now must be valued as a mid-tier RB2 due to the split.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

“Kenneth Walker: Following free agency (but before the draft), Walker ranked as my RB6. He impressed as a rookie (255 touches, 1,215 YFS and 9 TDs), and especially so down the stretch with three consecutive 100-yard games to close the regular season. Zach Charbonnet may not be the home-run threat that Wilson is, but the versatile second-rounder should be a steady contributor who lightens Walker’s workload. Charbonnet should be more involved than Walker as a receiver, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ultimately gets more of the opportunities near the goal line.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“While he wasn’t my favorite prospect, Zach Evans has a lot of good going for him, and winds up becoming a value based on his draft grade vs capital. He ends up in Los Angeles, where Cam Akers is the incumbent but hasn’t truly cemented himself as untouchable. Akers hasn’t progressed as a receiving threat to this point, and his menial 4.2 ypc is not guaranteeing anything. This is a longer-term play, and not necessarily one for 2023, but I believe we could be seeing the changing of the guard in the Rams backfield and no one seems to be paying attention to Evans.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

Dawson Knox (TE – BUF)
“Dawson Knox takes a big hit after the Bills selected Dalton Kincaid in the first round. He’s a player who’s returned fringe TE1 value over the past couple of seasons, but that figures to change now. He’ll need even better touchdown luck to return that sort of value which feels unlikely given the other options around him. I’m treating him like a mid-range TE2 in redraft formats. In dynasty, I don’t have any issue moving off of him if I have other options at the position. ”
– Anthony Corrente (The Dynasty Drive)

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
“It is easily Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have been less than coy with their future intentions after selecting a second-round quarterback in consecutive drafts. While Malik Willis did not show well when given the opportunity, and hints of the coaching staff not looking favorably on his work ethic, the Titans took Will Levis in the draft. Levis can take this season to learn the playbook, get acclimated to the NFL, and watch Tannehill audition for his next team. At the time of this writing, Tannehill is the QB34 in best ball drafts if that sheds any light on his current perceived value. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)
“No need for a long-winded answer here. It’s Tyler Allgeier. When the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson, Allgeier’s fantasy value disappeared in a puff of smoke.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
“Khalil Herbert is an uber-talented running back. There’s no denying that, but the Bears crushed him this offseason. They started by bringing in D’Onta Foreman, who might have only received a one-year deal, but he’s no scrub. Last year Foreman ranked tenth in yards after contact per attempt and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 100 carries per PFF). Then they put the cherry on top by drafting Roschon Johnson in the fourth round. Johnson might have been a backup in college, but he won’t be sitting behind anyone in the pros. Last year Johnson ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt and third in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). Herbert has tumbled from a possible low-end RB2 with the departure of David Montgomery to a fringey RB3/RB4 with the backfield additions. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts (Post NFL Draft)

• Superflex, 4 Rounds
• Superflex, 5 Rounds
• 12-Team, PPR, 3 Rounds
• Post-Round 1 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

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