This is going to be my most realistic mock draft yet.
Why? Because my home league, the one that’s been going since I was a sophomore in high school, is a half-point-per-reception league, and I have pick number three this year.
As always, we’re using the FantasyPros FREE Draft Wizard. We’ll mirror my home league’s roster format as well, which is two flex positions and standard rosters other than that.
For each selection, I’ll talk about which player I went with and why, as well as some other players I considered at the pick. At the end, we’ll go through the draft analysis provided by FantasyPros’ Draft Wizard and experts.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Mock Draft: .5PPR, Early Selection
Pick 1.03
Selection: Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Considered: Cooper Kupp
I’m going to be monitoring the Cooper Kupp situation up until draft day. If we have confirmation Kupp is healthy and active for week 1, he’s my pick at three. Kupp is simply the singular focal point of his team’s offense, unlike anyone other than Justin Jefferson. It’s as though Matthew Stafford plays every game with Cooper Kupp blinders. Until Kupp is confirmed healthy, I’ll go with Jefferson, McCaffrey, or Ekeler.
Pick 2.10
Selection: Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Considered: Najee Harris, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave
Yes, he’s the number two option on his team, but Waddle seems as though he’s a class above these players in terms of explosiveness. He’s a staple on his team’s offense and will inevitably produce a couple of matchup-winning weeks for us.
Pick 3.03
Selection: Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Considered: Mark Andrews, Travis Etienne, Amari Cooper
Olave’s floor is too high to pass up here, given his upgrade at quarterback. Derek Carr is more than capable of producing a high-end WR2, and Olave’s career ascension is just getting started. I think Andrews in the third is good value, but he kind of needs everything to go right (Lamar Jackson‘s health, his health, etc.) to warrant the third-round pick. As long as Carr is healthy, I would be surprised if Olave weren’t getting double-digit targets every week.
Pick 4.10
Selection: Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
Considered: DeAndre Hopkins , Calvin Ridley
I have a ton of Cam Akers shares across my mock drafts. I think a late fourth-round price for a potential three-down back in Sean McVay’s offense is criminally low. I get it, though. He’s had injuries and hasn’t exactly demonstrated a “wow” factor. I’m still in.
Pick 5.03
Selection: T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
Considered: Drake London, DeAndre Hopkins
Between weeks 9 (his first week with Minnesota) and 17, T.J. Hockenson was the fourth-most targeted player in football. He was tied with Travis Kelce for 85 targets in that timespan. I’m not a proponent of taking TEs early in 12-team leagues, but that target share in the fifth round is hard to pass up.
Pick 6.10
Selection: Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Considered: Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Trevor Lawrence
I was close to selecting Lawrence here. He represented the end of a tier for me, a tier above Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, etc. However, in a two-flex league, putting off one of those flex spots another round isn’t how I want to start the draft. I expect the Chargers to have a high-scoring, fast, pass-first offense, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Williams leads them in receiving yards.
Pick 7.03
Selection: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
Considered: Diontae Johnson
Well, Lawrence fell. Here’s my soapbox: Trevor Lawrence improved astronomically in just about every statistic from his rookie year to last season. Now he has Calvin Ridley and another year with Doug Pederson and his auxiliary weapons (Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones). Lawrence also has 625 rushing yards through two seasons and upped his rushing TD total from two to five last season.
Pick 8.10
Selection: Jamaal Williams (RB – NO)
Considered: Zach Charbonnet, JuJu Smith-Schuster
I was really hoping Brandin Cooks fell, but he didn’t. Jamaal Williams, your 2022-23 rushing TD leader, is in line to be the Saints’ lead back for the first three weeks of the season. I like knowing he’s a no-brainer for three weeks. The fantasy RB position is so capricious I’m confident I can figure it out after week three.
Pick 9.03
Selection: Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)
Considered: Elijah Mitchell, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Can Charbonnet carve out a role in the offense by week four in time to take over for Jamaal Williams in my flex spot? I don’t know, but I like the thought of it. Let’s ride.
Pick 10.10
Selection: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)
Considered: Michael Thomas, Tyler Allgeier
I was thinking of handcuffing an RB1 here with someone such as Allgeier, Jerome Ford, or Jaylen Warren, but opted for the ceiling of Odell Beckham Jr. Will he play all 17 games? It’s unlikely, but when he is healthy, it’s looking like Lamar Jackson is going to be looking his way quite a bit.
Pick 11.03
Selection: Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
Considered: Michael Thomas, Elijah Moore
I like Warren’s value here. He likely sees regular work even with a healthy Najee Harris, but should Harris miss time for any reason, Warren is in for a sizable workload.
Pick 12.10
Selection: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Considered: Aaron Rodgers (QB – NJY)
I had to take a flier on Richardson because of his rushing potential in a four-point passing TD league. We can always cut the players we draft this late.
Pick 13.03
Selection: Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC)
Considered: Zay Flowers, Nico Collins
Why not handcuff my first pick? I liked Flowers a lot here, too.
Final Grade: 82/100
Not bad! Here’s the board!
Analysis:
The Draft Wizard would have been kinder if I drafted Najee Harris instead of Chris Olave and Zay Flowers instead of Joshua Kelley. The latter, I completely understand. I wouldn’t fault anyone for selecting Harris over Olave, either. Harris should have a nice workload. I just have more confidence in Olave as a player.
The Wizard would also have liked me to take Rhamondre Stevenson instead of Jaylen Waddle. I can’t wrap my head around this. Stevenson’s workload, especially around the end zone, will be siphoned by Ezekiel Elliott.
That’s my team! I really liked how this turned out and rue that my league mates will inevitably read this.
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