The soul-sucking injury bug has decimated another week of NFL action and more fantasy rosters. A swarming insect that seeks to steal joy, inflict pain, and leave fantasy GMs and NFL fans whispering, “not like this,” as they huddle in a dark corner in a pool of their tears.
The list of battered, bruised, and lost for the season continues to grow, but all hope is not lost. Even if you’re 0-2, ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST!
I’ll leave you with the powerful words of Winston Churchill to inspire your might to fight and prevail with Ws in Week 3.
“Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never, never-in nothing, great or small, large or petty-never give in, except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force. Never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
- CLE -3.5, O/U 39.5
- Titans vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The more things change in Tennessee the more they stay the same. The Titans are 32nd in neutral pace with the 13th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The Browns are 14th in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Ryan Tannehill: Will the real Ryan Tannehill please stand up? After a rough Week 1, he rebounded dramatically last week. Tannehill was first in passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate as the QB15 in fantasy. We’ll see if Tannehill can stack back-to-back fantastic games against a Browns’ defense that looks legit. Cleveland has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, third-lowest passer rating, and the lowest adjusted completion rate. The Browns also have the eighth-best pressure rate. Tannehill won’t have much time in the pocket in Week 3. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end QB2
Deshaun Watson: I warned everyone this offseason that 2022 Watson could be quite similar this season. The former magic he possessed on an NFL field looks to be gone. Watson has the 12th-lowest passing grade, third-lowest yards per attempt, and second-lowest adjusted completion rate. He is 19th in fantasy points per dropback. That said, this is the matchup for Watson to turn his fortunes around. If it can happen in 2023, it should start in Week 3 against a burnable Titans’ pass defense. Tennessee has permitted the fourth-highest yards per attempt, eighth-highest passer rating, and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Week 3 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside this week
|Player||Rushing attempts||Targets||Routes||RZ opportunities|
Derrick Henry: Henry dominated snaps in Week 2 (71%) as the Titans surprised everyone (including myself) and kept the game close before pulling out the win. The spread for this game indicates another close affair in Week 3, so Henry should see a 60% snap rate this week. Henry has averaged 22.5 touches and 107 total yards as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. While the Browns have the top stuff rate in the NFL their other run defense metrics are lagging. Cleveland has the highest missed tackles allowed rate and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 3 Positional Value: Solid RB1
Tyjae Spears: Spears saw his snap share fall from 54% to 37% last week. I’m projecting a similar workload this week with a close spread. Last week, Spears had ten touches that he turned into 55 total yards. Spears is an explosive player, so I won’t discount his ability to rip off a big run in this game. He’s fourth in yards after contact per attempt with the second-highest elusive rating among backs. Week 3 Positional Value: Coin flip flex play
Jerome Ford: Ford will be one of the top waiver wire pickups this week. The news of Nick Chubb‘s injury is devastating. With Chubb lost for the season, Ford takes over as the team’s starting do-it-all back. He played 49% of the snaps, finishing with 19 touches and 131 total yards as the RB6 in Week 2. Ford is a talented player, ranking sixth in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in elusive rating. Ford only had a 25% route per team dropback rate in the fourth quarter of Week 2 (Pierre Strong 15%), so he might not be the undisputed passing down back in Week 3. Tennesse’s run defense remains an elite unit. They have the third-highest stuff rate, second-lowest rate of runs of 5-plus yards, sixth-lowest missed tackles, and third-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Keep expectations in check for Ford this week. Week 3 Positional Value: volume-based RB2/high-end RB3
Kareem Hunt: Hunt will be active this week, but he’s not playable. He likely only sees a handful of snaps in an atrocious matchup. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-sit / Stash
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins gutted it out through injury last week with a 65% route run per team dropback rate. Through two games, he has a 29.3% Target share and 35.8% air yard share. Despite being banged up, he still led the team with a 25% first-read share. Hopkins ranks second on the team behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in red zone targets. Hopkins will run about 62% of his routes against Denzel Ward (53.3% catch rate and 107.6 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (12.5% catch rate and 39.6 passer rating).Hopkins’ practice participation declined throughout the week, but he’s expected to play. He started with a full practice on Wednesday before a limited session on Thursday, and he missed Friday’s practice. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end WR3/Must-Sit if you have comparable options
Treylon Burks: Burks has been disappointing. He has a 12.1% Target share, a 20.1% air yard share, and an 11.9% first read share (fourth on the team). He’s been the team’s field stretcher, leading the team with two deep targets (14.4 aDOT). Burks should be a must-sit for most teams. He’ll run about 54% of his routes against Ward and Emerson. Week 3 Positional Value: WR5
Amari Cooper: Cooper came into this week nursing an injury, but you could never tell that based on his play in Week 2. He had a 79% route run per team dropback rate, drawing a 22.5% Target share and a 32.3% air yard share (2.31 YPRR). Cooper is the clear first read for Watson, with a 30.6% first-read share. Assuming his health holds up heading into Week 3, Cooper is poised for another strong outing against a pass funnel defense. Cooper will run about 68% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (66.7% catch rate and 129.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (75% catch rate and 116.7 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR2
Elijah Moore: Moore truthers might have to face tough facts that rookie season Eliah Moore might never return. After two games, he has a 21.7% Target share and 22% TPRR, but he’s done very little with the volume. Among 60 qualifying wide receivers, he’s 48th in receiving grade and 46th in YPRR. He ranks 42nd in first read share among that same sample of receivers. Watson isn’t playing good football, but Moore isn’t blowing the doors off so far in 2023. Moore will run about half of his routes against Roger McCreary (50% catch rate and 62.5 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR4
Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones should not be on a fantasy roster now. He’s quickly become an afterthought in this offense. Peoples-Jones has an 81% route run per team dropback rate, which is fantastic, but he’s only drawn a 7.2% Target share and 7.4% air yard share. He’s the fourth or fifth option in a struggling passing attack. Week 3 Positional Value: Droppable
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Oknokwo has been a major disappointment so far. While he’s had a serviceable 66.7% route run per team dropback rate, it hasn’t translated into production. He has only a 10.3% Target share and an 11.9% first-read share, which both rank 26th among 38 qualifying tight ends. Add in his 0.76 YPRR, and he’s barely even streamer-worthy material. Cleveland was tough against tight ends last season, and that’s translated to this year. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to the position and zero touchdowns. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE2
David Njoku: Let’s continue our lovely ride on the pain train. Njoku’s name value in fantasy circles has eclipsed his production this season. He’s currently the TE29 in fantasy points per game, immediately behind Tyler Conklin. He’s running a route on 75% of the team dropbacks, but that hasn’t helped Watson to look his way. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 27th in Target share, 25th in first-read share, and 22nd in YPRR. This could be the matchup to get him going, though. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and third-highest yards per reception to tight ends. They had similar struggles stopping tight ends last year, giving up the most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE1
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
- DET -3, O/U 46.5
- Falcons vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Falcons added a wrinkle to their offensive approach in Week 2 as they sped up the offense. Atlanta was tenth in neutral pace and fifth in no-huddle rate in Week 2. They did remain based around the ground game, though, with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Ben Johnson has deployed a moderately paced run-balanced offense through two games. Detroit ranks 14th in neutral pace but 21st in neutral passing rate.
Desmond Ridder: Ridder has been a replacement-level quarterback so far. With two games under his belt, he has the second-worst passing grade, highest turnover-worthy play rate, and seventh-lowest aDOT. He also has the fourth-lowest deep passing grade and tenth-lowest deep passer rating. His ten rushing attempts (39 rushing yards) last week and rushing score saved his fantasy day. In his six NFL starts, that is only his second game with more than ten rushing yards, so I wouldn’t count on the rushing production as a consistent weekly aid. Detroit is 11th in passer rating, 14th in yards per attempt, and has allowed the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. Their pass defense is still finding its way, but their pass rush is in midseason form, ranking fifth in pressure rate. Ridder has crumbled under pressure with the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate and fifth-lowest yards per attempt. Week 3 Positional Value: Low-end QB2
Jared Goff: Goff has been playing outstanding football. He’s fifth in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate. Goff is also tenth in fantasy points per dropback. He started balling out down the stretch last season and has continued to play well into the 2023 season. After demolishing rookie Bryce Young in Week 1, the Falcons faced Jordan Love last week. Against Love, they finished the week with the fifth-lowest passer rating, fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and third-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Atlanta’s pass defense looks legit, also ranking eighth-best in pressure rate. Goff should have plenty of time to find open receivers, as his offensive line has allowed him to face the seventh-lowest pressure rate. Goff should post a solid stat line here but don’t expect a ceiling performance. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end QB1/high-end QB2
|Player||Rushing attempts||Targets||Routes||RZ opportunities|
Bijan Robinson: Robinson saw his snap share climb in Week 2 to 72% (Week 1 63%). Robinson has averaged 19.5 touches and 127.5 total yards this season as the RB5 in fantasy. Robinson leads the NFL in percentage of runs, gaining at least five-plus yards. He’s also seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Robinson has also been as good as advertised as a dynamic pass-game weapon. He’s second in routes run per team dropback rate, first in Target share (22.0%), and tenth in yards per route run among running backs (minimum 15 routes). Detroit has been a tough run defense so far. They have the 13th-highest stuff rate, sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards before contact per attempt allowed. Robinson’s pass-game role will help him weather any efficiency woes this week. The Lions have deployed zone coverage on 60-66% of their corner’s snaps this season. Against zone, Robinson leads the team with a 21.4% Target share. Week 3 Positional Value: Matchup proof RB1
Tyler Allgeier: In Week 2, Allgeier saw his snaps drop to 44% while still earning 16 rushing attempts (zero targets), churning out 48 rushing yards. Allgeier is a talented early-down rusher. Among 45 qualifying running backs, he ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). With Allgeier’s pass game usage drying up and this being a tough-on-paper matchup for rushing, this would be a good week to sit him. Week 3 Positional Value: Middle of the road flex play/RB3
Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs played 48% of the snaps last week with 14 touches and 56 total yards. My thoughts for everyone upset with his early season usage…please understand it when I say that you are missing the boat here if you’re upset. Last week, Gibbs saw a 25.7% Target share. He got nine targets. NINE! Was the result amazing? No. Is his usage the problem? Nope. Talent is not the problem. Usage is not the problem. Gibbs’ best days are ahead of him. He’s 11th in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in elusive rating. Gibbs has been the superb receiving talent that we thought he was entering this season, as he ranks 11th in receiving grade and fourth in YPRR. Gibbs is set up well to have a breakout performance this week. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, has the tenth-worst stuff rate, and the 11th-worst yards after contact per attempt. Week 3 Positional Value: Borderline RB1
Craig Reynolds: Reynolds will likely play the watered-down “David Montgomery role” this week as Gibbs’ running mate. Reynolds does not get enough credit for how talented he is. Across his 82 career carries, he has amassed 3.72 yards after contact per attempt, a 34.4% breakaway rate, and a 115.3 elusive rating. If you compared these numbers to rushers with at least 100 carries last year in those categories, he would have ranked third, tenth, and first. In his four career games, with at least 40% of the snaps played, he has averaged 15.8 touches and 89.7 total yards. Reynolds is a plug-and-play flex this week. Week 3 Positional Value: RB3/4 or a strong flex play
David Montgomery: Montgomery hasn’t practiced all week. The team listed him as “doubtful”. Montgomery will be ruled out for Week 3. Week 3 Positional Value: N/A
Drake London: After finishing with a goose egg in Week 1 with only one target, London got things going in Week 2. He commanded a 25% Target share a 30% air yard share, and manufactured 2.09 YPRR. London was the WR19 in fantasy scoring last week. Talent is not a problem for London, but weekly pass game volume and quarterback play definitely are. Against the Lions’ stout run defense, the Falcons could be forced to throw more than they want. If that happens, London can post another productive stat line. Last year, he was fifth in receiving grade and 12th in YPRR against zone coverage. London will run about 86% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (66.7% catch rate and 88.9 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (73.3% catch rate and 127.5 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he logged a limited session on Thursday and a full practice on Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. I expect him to play right now and handle his usual complement of snaps. An in-game setback is possible, so tread cautiously, but in most formats, if you have him, you’re probably forced to start him. St. Brown has a 22.9% Target share while ranking 21st in TPRR and tenth in YPRR among wide receivers. He will run about 50% of his routes against Dee Alford (85.7% catch rate and 138.4 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR1
Josh Reynolds: Reynolds is running hot. He’s the WR12 in fantasy after two stellar games. He has a 17.1% Target share and 31.4% air yard share as a trusted weapon for Goff. Reynolds ranks ninth in receiving grade and 14th in YPRR. While I doubt he keeps up this torrid pace all season, we still have to tip the cap to Reynolds. Reynolds has run the team’s second-most slot routes to only St. Brown. If St. Brown can’t go, don’t be surprised if Reynolds sees his slot rate bump even higher (48% slot). Reynolds will run about half of his routes (maybe more) against Dee Alford (85.7% catch rate and 138.4 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside
Marvin Jones: Jones is cooked. He has earned only a 7.1% Target share, an 8.5% air yard share, and produced 0.22 YPRR. Jones shouldn’t be on any fantasy roster. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-sit / Cut bait
Kyle Pitts: Pitts has a 16.0% Target share and a 34.0% air-yard share, which sounds great until you realize that Pitts is the TE32 in fantasy points per game. He has not been a priority against zone coverage, ranking third on the team in Target share (14.3%) and fourth in TPRR (15%). Sadly, his TPRR ranks immediately behind fellow tight end Jonnu Smith. Detroit gave up a ton of production to tight ends last season, but that all came against inline tight ends. Against slot tight ends, they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points (Pitts 50% slot). Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 that can pop off as a TE1 in any week
DON'T LOOK NOW ROOKIE TE HATERS
Sammy Ballgame through 2 weeks
15.7% Tg share
6th in PFF rec grade
3rd in YPRR
11th in YAC/rec
last week 7th in route run per team dropback rate
(78.4% per @FantasyPtsData )
Sammy Ballgame is the current TE6 in Fppg pic.twitter.com/AbcctSHMa8
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 19, 2023
Sam LaPorta: Around here, we stan Sammy Ballgame. Don’t look now, rookie tight-end haters. LaPorta is the TE6 in fantasy points per game. He’s sixth in receiving grade, third in YPRR, and 11th in YAC per reception. Last week, his route run per team dropback rate ranked seventh (78.4%). Last year, Atlanta allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. This season, they have surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: Locked-in TE1
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
- GB -1, O/U 42.5
- Saints vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Saints continue to move at a lightning-fast pace (fifth in neutral pace), but their passing rate took a hit in Week 2. They are 17th in neutral passing rate.
- Green Bay remains focused on protecting Jordan Love. They have the 12th-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Derek Carr: Carr’s play has been a rollercoaster through two weeks as he settles in. Carr is fifth in yards per attempt and fourth in big-time throw rate, but he’s also 20th in passing grade and 30th in adjusted completion rate as he tries to get on the same page with his receivers. Green Bay hasn’t been a pushover pass defense, ranking 18th in yards per attempt while holding passers to the seventh-lowest passer rating, but they can be beat deep. The Packers have allowed the second-highest passer rating and third-highest adjusted completion rating to deep passes. This matches up perfectly with their struggles to defend the deep ball in 2022. Last season, Green Bay gave up the tenth-highest passer rating and fourth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passes. Carr has been hyper-aggressive, letting it rip downfield. He leads all quarterbacks in deep ball rate and deep pass attempts. Week 3 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside if he connects on the deep balls
Jordan Love: The perception of Love’s quarterbacking has been puffed up by an unsustainable touchdown run out. Love is tied for first in passing touchdowns (six) despite ranking 28th in passing attempts. This will come back to earth, and it probably starts this week. Love’s efficiency metrics are ghastly. He’s 26th in passing grade with the tenth-lowest big-time throw rate and the lowest adjusted completion rate in the NFL (minimum 20 dropbacks). New Orleans is a defense to be reckoned with. They have held passers to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, second-lowest passer rating, and third-lowest adjusted completion rate. Quarterbacks average only eight fantasy points per game against New Orleans (fourth-lowest). Week 3 Positional Value: Worrisome QB2
Kendre Miller:If you read the Primer before my update, I had Tony Jones Jr. in this spot, but at the time of writing that, I was unaware that Miller would practice in full all week. Miller doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Miller could be the Saints’ bell cow this week. Tony Jones Jr. was the defacto volume back last week with Miller out with an injury. I doubt Jones Jr. plays more than a breather role this week. Last year in college, among 168 qualifying backs, Miller ranked 31st in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in elusive rating immediately behind Zach Charbonnet. Miller looked good in limited reps this preseason as a receiver with 1.42 YPRR. Miller has a cakewalk matchup incoming on the ground. Green Bay has the third-lowest stuff rate while allowing the third-most missed tackles and the third-highest rate of 10-plus yard runs. Don’t shy away from plugging in Miller this week. Week 3 Positional Value: RB2/3
Aaron Jones:Jones has been listed as questionable this week. He opened the week with a DNP before stacking back-to-back limited practice sessions. I think Jones will be active this week, but I’m not so sure he handles his usual workload. In Week 1, Jones played 47% of the snaps with 11 touches and 127 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. New Orleans has the 13th-highest stuff rate, the third-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (2022: Jones 64% zone). It’s a mixed bag, but most of the early season metrics point to the Saints being an above-average run defense this season. Week 3 Positional Value: Low-end RB2/high-end RB3
A.J. Dillon:In Week 2, Dillon played 68% of the snaps last week with 16 touches and 63 total yards as the Packers lead back. Assuming Jones is active this week, Dillon falls back into his complementary role. In Week 1, Dillon handled 48% of the snaps with 15 touches (36 total yards). Among 49 qualifying backs, Dillon ranks 34th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in elusive rating. Dillon is an uninspiring flex. Week 3 Positional Value: RB3/4
NO vs. zone coverage
|Player||Target share%||TPRR||YPRR||First-read %|
Chris Olave: Olave leads the team with a 30% Target share and 41.2% air-yard share as the WR15 in fantasy. Olave is fifth in receiving grade and tenth in YPRR among receivers. He should lead the way in attacking the Packers deep this week. He leads the team with six deep targets. His prowess on go routes will also factor in heavily this week. Last season, Olave had a 34.8% Target share (20th), 39% TPRR (30th), and the 17th-highest YPRR on go routes (among 82 qualifying wide receivers). This matters a ton because the Packers have struggled against go routes in each of the last two seasons. Last year, Green Bay allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, third-highest adjusted completion rate, and the second-most passing touchdowns to go routes (per Fantasy Points Data). Olave has been running almost half of his routes from the slot, so he’ll get plenty of reps against Keisean Nixon (88.9% catch rate and 135.6 passer rating) this week. Olave leads the team with a 31.1% first-read share (Thomas 26.7%, Shaheed 15.6%). The Packers have utilized zone coverage on 79-83% of their corner’s snaps. Olave leads the team in nearly every category against zone. Week 3 Positional Value: WR1
Michael Thomas: If any wide receiver could get shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, it’s probably Thomas. Alexander followed D.J. Moore on 55% of his routes in Week 1. He held Moore to goose eggs across the board with zero targets or receiving yards. Thomas has a 22.9% Target share and 22.3% air-yard share with 1.76 YPRR as the WR41 in fantasy. Thomas has looked like the vintage Thomas. He’s been second in command against zone coverage behind only Olave. If Alexander doesn’t follow Thomas, he’ll run about 72% of his routes against Alexander (75% catch rate and 156.3 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (63.6% catch rate and 41.9 passer rating). Thomas has been the go to receiver in the red zone (tied for the sixth-most red zone targets in the NFL). Week 3 Positional Value: WR3
Rashid Shaheed: With every passing week, Shaheed continues to prove that his small sample rookie season efficiency majesty isn’t a fluke. He has a 14.3% Target share and a 21.0% air yard share as the WR26 in fantasy. His output against zone coverage over the last two seasons has been incredible, with 3.73 and 3.44 YPRR. Shaheed and Olave are Carr’s paths to a ceiling performance on the back of deep targets. Shaheed is second on the team with four deep targets. He’s also a go-route savant. This season, he’s been targeted on 57% of his go routes and leads the team with four go route targets. Shaheed will run about 63% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas. Week 3 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside this week
Romeo Doubs: Doubs has earned a 15.7% Target share and a 19.2% air yard share this season. He’s 24th in receiving grade and 47th in YPRR with a 64% route run per team dropback rate. While he opened the season with two scores in Week 1, we can’t rely on those touchdowns weekly. We should look elsewhere if we’re looking for strong receiving yardage totals to balance out the touchdown valleys. Doubs has surpassed 50 receiving yards in only three career games. I doubt he will make it four this week. Doubs will run about 81% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (37.5% catch rate and 9.4 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (55.6% catch rate and 43.5 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR5
Jayden Reed: Reed has been incredible on a limited route volume. He’s only seen a 57% route run per team dropback rate. Among wide receivers with at least 25 routes (141 WRs), Reed is 24th in Target share (23.5%), third in TPRR (38%), and 17th in YPRR (2.66). Reed’s role is holding him back. He’s stuck in a part-time slot role on a low-volume passing offense. Until he can break free and become a full-time player, his upside is capped regardless of how good he is on a per-route basis. Reed will run about 65% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (80% catch rate and 105.2 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR4/5
Christian Watson: Watson was limited in practice on Wednesday and Friday. He was unable to practice (hamstring) on Thursday. If he is active, he probably plays a limited snap role. That means he’s a must-sit this week. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-sit
Juwan Johnson: Johnson’s usage has been borderline TE1-worthy. He has an 11.4% Target share and a 13.3% first-read share. He has run a route on 70.9% of the team’s dropbacks. That’s not as high as we would like, but it’s not terrible. If Thomas gets locked up this week with Alexander, it could push some target volume his way. Last year, Green Bay was quite good against tight ends, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. After two games, maybe we are seeing a turning of the tide as Green Bay has allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week.
Luke Musgrave: Sit Musgrave this week. That is all. It doesn’t have to be complicated. New Orleans has been and remains a shutdown defense against tight ends. This season, the Saints have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and zero scores to the position. Last year, they gave up the fewest receiving yards, the fewest fantasy points, and only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Do not play Musgrave this week. Week 3 Positional Value: Must Sit