Don’t go into a fantasy draft hell-bent on getting your favorite players no matter what. Any draft strategy that includes no matter what is reckless.
Price always matters. It’s hard to turn a profit with your roster if it’s loaded with players on whom you overspent.
That said, it certainly makes sense to zero in on your favorite draft targets if you can get them at a reasonable price or even a below-market price.
Here are the players I’m most aggressively targeting in 2024 fantasy drafts. Check out my must-have fantasy football draft targets.
Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Fitz’s Top Targets
Quarterbacks
Over his first five years as an NFL starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged 24.0 fantasy points per game. Last year, in his sixth season as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, Mahomes averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in the league in that category.
It’s easy to see why: Kansas City had one of the league’s worst collections of wide receivers. WR Rashee Rice had a strong rookie season, but he was a manufactured-touch, catch-and-run guy. Rice had under 500 air yards last year. The rest of the Chiefs’ receivers were, to use a clinical term, hot garbage juice.
The Chiefs signed speedy WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency. They traded up a handful of spots in the first round to draft University of Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who broke the combine record with a 4.21 in the 40-yard dash. The added pass-catching talent should propel Mahomes back into elite fantasy status.
Don’t be the mincing, fraidy-cat fantasy manager who’s scared to take a chance on a rookie quarterback. Rushing ability is the cheat code for quarterbacks to unlock fantasy success, and Daniels is capable of moving the needle with his ability to take off and boogie.
The No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last year after throwing for 3,812 yards with 40 TD passes and only four interceptions. Daniels averaged 11.7 yards per pass attempt for LSU last year. He also ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Commanders brought in Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator, and Kingsbury coaxed a QB7 fantasy season out of mobile QB Kyler Murray in Kyler’s rookie year with the Cardinals.
Daniels’ ADP was QB17 as of this writing, which is way too low. If he remains so ridiculously affordable, you owe it to yourself to pounce on him, even if you’re drafting him as a second quarterback.
Running Backs
Taylor’s top-end scoring potential rivals are that of the top three running backs by ADP: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson. We saw what Taylor is capable of in 2021, when he had 1,811 rushing yards, 2,171 scrimmage yards 20 touchdowns.
Now, imagine what Taylor could do with mobile young QB Anthony Richardson playing a full season for the Colts. Taylor started the 2023 season on IR, and Richardson sustained a season-ending injury early on, so those two didn’t get to play together. Imagine linebackers seeing Anthony Richardson put the ball in Jonathan Taylor‘s breadbasket, not knowing if Taylor is going to take the handoff or if Richardson is going to pull the ball out and run it himself. The Richardson/Taylor combo gives Colts head coach and playcaller Shane Steichen some delicious run-pass option possibilities.
Taylor will typically come off the board late in the first round or late in the second, and he’s an excellent option if you’re picking at or near the 1-2 turn.
It’s strange that the market has cooled on Walker, considering that he was well-liked as a prospect when he entered the league in 2022 and hasn’t done anything to disappoint us. Walker is fast and athletic, put up huge numbers in his final college season at Michigan State, has averaged just under 80 yards from scrimmage per game since entering the NFL, and has scored nine TDs in each of his first two seasons as a pro.
Is it the presence of fellow second-round draft pick Zach Charbonnet that has people concerned? Walker averaged 16.5 touches a game last year. Charbonnet averaged 7.4 touches in games that Walker played. It seems like the Seahawks have made up their minds about who their lead back is.
No running back in the NFL has forced more missed tackles over the last two seasons. than Walker, who should benefit from a favorable schedule this season. The only slight drawback is that Walker probably won’t be a prolific pass catcher, though he had a respectable 29 catches last year.
Williams averaged 3.6 yards per carry last season and didn’t really show us much of the sizzle we saw from him when he was a rookie in 2021. But now Williams is nearly two years removed from the torn ACL that derailed him in 2022. Hopefully we’ll see more of the power and explosiveness that we saw from him at the beginning of his career.
The pass-catching potential here is appealing. Denver running backs had a league-high 153 targets last year. That works out to 9.0 RB targets a game.
Sean Payton’s offenses have always utilized the running backs heavily in the passing game. As noted by outstanding analyst JJ Zachariason, Sean Payton’s teams account for eight of the 20 highest RB target shares since 2011. Now, enter rookie QB Bo Nix, who was a checkdown and screen machine in college. Williams had 47 catches last year. It’s not hard to imagine him finishing with 60-70 catches this year.
At worst, Brown is likely to be the primary passing-down back in Cincinnati’s post-Joe Mixon backfield. But are we absolutely certain Zack Moss is going to be the main early-down back for the Bengals?
Moss was terrific for the Colts early last season while Jonathan Taylor was on injured reserve, perhaps benefitting from the rushing threat posed by QB Anthony Richardson. But from Week 6 on, Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and wasn’t nearly as effective. Moss has never been much of a pass catcher.
Brown looked terrific last season in a very limited role (especially as a pass catcher), and he’s capable of handling a heavy load if the Bengals determine that he’s their best RB option. Brown averaged 27.3 carries a game and 29.6 touches a game in his final college season at Illinois, finishing with 1,883 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns in 12 games.
If Brown is only a passing-down/change-of-pace back for the Bengals, he’s fairly priced at his middle-round ADP. But there’s enormous profit potential if the Bengals take a look at Moss and decide they prefer Brown, who’s younger, faster and a better pass catcher.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Waddle has played three NFL seasons and has topped 1,000 yards each year. He finished with 1,014 yards last season despite missing three games and battling injuries for much of the season. The Dolphins have had target hog Tyreek Hill for two of those seasons, and yet Waddle has continued to produce.
Waddle’s efficiency numbers have been terrific: 10.7 yards per target and nearly 2.5 yards per route run over the last two years. Waddle has a proven track record, he’s in an explosive offense, and he’s had a fruitful relationship with QB Tua Tagovailoa dating back to their days at the University of Alabama.
In most drafts, Waddle comes off the board late in the third round or early in the fourth. He’s an auto-pick for me if I can get him in that part of the draft.
The productivity of several Cleveland pass catchers spiked late last season when Joe Flacco took over as the Browns’ starting quarterback. Cooper had some big games with Flacco at QB, including an 11-catch, 265-yard, two-TD outing against Houston in Week 16. But Cooper also thrived with Deshaun Watson at quarterback — which is reassuring since Watson is expected to be Cleveland’s starter in 2024. Cooper averaged 5.6 receptions and 96.0 receiving yards in the five games Watson started and finished last year, with at least 90 receiving yards in four of those five games.
Cooper’s ADP is currently WR27. In two seasons with the Browns, Cooper has finished WR16 and WR17 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He’s a screaming value at his current cost.
McLaurin has banked four straight 1,000-yard seasons. The quarterbacks he’s played more than one game with over that span are Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, late-career Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett.
Now, McLaurin gets to play with Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The Commanders don’t have a great running game, and they don’t have a very good defense, so they’re probably going to be pass-heavy this year. And obviously, McLaurin has passed every eye test with flying colors. An ADP of WR32 makes McLaurin a strong buy.
Eleven weeks into the 2023 season, Adam Thielen was WR10 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring and was averaging 9.7 targets and 7.6 catches per game. That’s the sort of target and catch upside Diontae Johnson has for the Panthers this year, except Johnson won’t average under 10 yards per catch the way Thielen did last season. Johnson is younger and better than Thielen.
Aside from Thielen (who’ll be 34 years old when the curtain goes up on the new season) and Johnson, the Panthers don’t have another proven pass catcher on the roster. Johnson has 160-target upside. And it’s possible that we will see improvement from Panthers QB Bryce Young, who should benefit from the tutelage of Carolina’s new head coach, noted QB whisperer Dave Caneles.
Watson has an ADP outside the top 40 at wide receiver, presumably because drafters are worried about (1) his target competition and (2) his balky hamstrings.
Watson recently saw a specialist about the hamstring issues and has expressed confidence that adjusting his training routine will solve the problem. As for the target competition, it’s worth noting that in games where Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were all healthy last season, Watson had a 27% target share, Reed a 22% share, and Doubs an 18% share. And Watson’s targets tend to be high-value targets. His average depth of target was 13.8 yards in 2022 and 15.6 yards in 2023.
Watson is 6-foot-4 and has sub-4.4 speed. He scored eight touchdowns over a four-game span as a rookie, and he scored four touchdowns over a three-game span last year. This is talent worth betting on, especially at a bargain price.
Tight Ends
Kittle is rarely overdrafted in fantasy leagues ad frequently underdrafted. It’s strange that interest is so tepid in a tight end who’s coming off a 1,000-yard season.
Granted, Kittle’s production can be wildly inconsistent because of the way he’s used. Some weeks, he’s targeted heavily in the passing game. Other weeks, he does a lot of blocking (and is darned good at it). There were six games last season in which Kittle had more than 15 fantasy points (0.5 PPR), and six games in which he had fewer than five fantasy points. My stance is that the poor Kittle games hurt you less than the Kittle smash games help you. Every tight end is going to have down weeks. Not every tight end is going to have weeks where he wins you a fantasy matchup almost singlehandledly. Kittle has several such games every year.
As noted in my earlier endorsement of Dak Prescott, I think the Cowboys are probably going to be pass-heavy this year. Ferguson had 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns last season, finishing TE8 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. From Week 8 through the end of the season, he was TE6.
The Cowboys didn’t make any significant additions at wide receiver or tight end in the offseason, so Ferguson’s role is secure. He’s a great fallback option if you don’t land one of the top tight ends.
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