Identifying the Next Breakout Wide Receivers (Fantasy Football)

Identifying the Next Breakout Wide Receivers (Fantasy Football)

In fantasy football, hitting on a breakout wide receiver can swing a league. But what exactly defines a breakout? For this article, we’re identifying breakout WR1s as players who have never finished a season as a top-12 wide receiver in fantasy football.

Using historical data, usage trends and recent patterns, we can pinpoint the profile of players most likely to take that WR1 leap in 2025.

This article was inspired by a piece written by Sam Ryner, who collected WR1 data points from 2012-2021.

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Identifying the Next WR Breakouts in Fantasy Football

What Predicts a Fantasy Football WR1 Breakout?

While no projection system is perfect, several factors tend to precede fantasy football WR1 breakouts:

  • Target volume and opportunity: You don’t luck into WR1 status without consistent looks.
  • Talent isn’t in question: Whether it’s signaled by draft capital or film… most of the time, these are receivers we already believe in. It’s about past situations (bad quarterbacks, injuries, etc.) limiting the player more so than them shouldering all the blame.
  • High-value usage and efficiency: Metrics like yards after catch (YAC) per reception and average depth of target (aDOT) tell us how these targets are being used and how these wideouts are taking advantage of those opportunities.
    • Keon Coleman, for example, posted a 15.4 aDOT (eighth among receivers) and ranked in the top 10 in YAC/reception in 2024. The only other player matching that combo? Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
    • Now, sharing a stat with Valdes-Scantling isn’t a ringing endorsement (although he did have a pretty impressive five-game stretch last season), but versatility/dynamism is important as receivers look to make a leap into WR1 territory.
    • Jerry Jeudy ranked in the top 24 in both YAC/reception (12th) and aDOT (24th) in 2023. Tee Higgins ranked in the top 28 in both aDOT and YAC/reception (17th) in 2023.
    • Before his 2024 breakout, Terry McLaurin was 20th in ESPN’s WR YAC model.
    • Jaxon Smith-Njigba also ranked top-12 in YAC/reception during his rookie season before a breakout in Year 2.
    • CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown flashed YAC-potential long before they became annually-ranked WR1s.
    • YAC specifically credits the player more and shines a light on their ability with the ball in their hands. It’s difficult to have a high aDOT and a high YAC rate.
  • Quarterback quality and red-zone involvement: A spike in touchdowns often vaults receivers into the top 12. Think Ja’Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Even depth options like Jauan Jennings cracked the top 20 in red-zone targets per game last season in his pursuit of his first WR1 season.
  • Red-zone targets are crucial: These high-value targets often provide the difference-maker in propelling WRs into WR1 range (and often to the WR1 overall). Good offensive environments create scoring opportunities. Ergo, if you’re torn between two potential wide receiver breakout candidates, the better offense is probably a good tiebreaker.

Historical Trends

According to research from Sam Ryner’s original article:

  • From 2012 to 2021, an average of 4.4 first-time WR1s emerged per season.
  • Over 50% of these breakouts came in Year 2 or Year 3, reinforcing the idea that early-career development is key.
    • 34% first became WR1s in their third season
    • 20% in their second season
    • 16% in their fifth season
    • 11% in their rookie season
    • 0% in Year 7, Year 9, Year 10 or Year 12 or later
  • Fifth- and sixth-year receivers, particularly those on new teams, represent another fruitful archetype.
  • Even in strong wide receiver seasons, WR1 turnover is common. There was an average of 7.3 different WR1s year-over-year during the 2012-2021 sample.
  • This means that if history repeats itself, we can expect around four wideouts to finish as top-12 receivers for the first time in 2025, with up to seven not repeating the feat from 2024.

Recent Seasons: New WR1 Breakouts

Unfortunately, Ryner’s article stopped after the 2022 season. But I’ve gone back over the last three years and added the desired data (full PPR scoring).

2022:

  • 5 new WR1s
    • 3 second-year WRs
    • 1 third-year WR
    • 1 fifth-year WR

2023:

  • 3 new WR1s
    • 1 rookie
    • 1 third-year WR
    • 1 sixth-year WR

2024:

  • 8 new WR1s
    • 3 rookies
    • 2 third-year WRs
    • 1 fifth-year WR
    • 1 sixth-year WR

Key Data:

  1. Year 2/Year 3 WRs = 44% of breakouts
  2. Rookies = 25%
  3. Year 5/Year 6 WRs = 25% (often on new teams)

Notable Trends:

  • Zero Year 2 WR1s in the last two seasons (although the high rookie breakout rate shallowed the talent pool).
  • Rookie breakout spike in 2024 (three total)
  • Year-over-year WR1 turnover: Seven (2022), five (2023) and nine (2024). This aligns with the historical average of 7.3 from 2012-2021. Keep in mind that these could have been repeat WR1 performers, just not in back-to-back seasons.
  • Average of five new WR1s per year (close to the 4.4 average from 2012-2022).
  • Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin made similar WR1 leaps when paired with star rookie quarterbacks.

Key Data From 2012-2024:

  • 32% of wide receivers had their first WR1 season in Year 3
  • 20% in Year 2
  • 15% in Year 5
  • 15% in their rookie season

More than 50% of breakouts came from Year 2 and Year 3 receivers, with rookies/five-year wideouts making up 30%.

There was an average of 7.2 new WR1s year-over-year (with an average of 4.5 being first-time new WR1s).

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Past ADPs of New WR1s

2022:

2023:

2024:

The WR18-WR50 range remains the richest pool for first-time WR1s. The sweet spot lies from the end of round three into round eight.

WR1 Breakouts By Preseason Positional ADP Range (2022-2024)

Interesting ADP Takeaways

  • CeeDee Lamb (WR7), Garrett Wilson (WR7) and Drake London (WR11) were all drafted as WR1s (top-12) in Year 3 before breaking out as first-time WR1s. Wilson and London were both playing with new quarterbacks.
  • WR1 breakouts often carry an elevated average draft position (ADP) in Year 3, but this doesn’t guarantee success.

Michael Pittman, entering his third season in 2022, busted as the WR20 with no prior WR1 finishes. Garrett Wilson, in his second season in 2023, busted as the WR27. Chris Olave, in his second season in 2023, was drafted as the WR12 despite zero top-12 finishes and busted as the WR16.

Tee Higgins in Year 4 busted as the WR14 with zero prior WR1 finishes. And last year, it was Marvin Harrison Jr. As a rookie, he had zero career top-12 finishes, and that still remains true after his disappointing first season. Olave was also a bust again as the WR12 in ADP for the second consecutive season in 2024.

This year’s receivers with the highest ADP despite zero WR1 career finishes are: Tee Higgins (Year 6), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Year 2) and Rashee Rice (Year 3). Only Higgins is being drafted as a WR1 (WR12 ADP). This suggests the Bengals’ No.2 WR has a high bust rate (especially based on him failing to live up to this ADP before).

The data also suggests that if Rice is healthy coming off his season-ending injury, he’s a logical candidate to make the jump into WR1 territory.

We’ve averaged at least one new WR1 from outside the top 50 receivers in ADP in each of the last three seasons. Six in total have gone after the WR40 range.

The most WR1 first-time finishers were drafted from picks 91-120 in overall ADP (between two rookies and two fifth-year players that switched teams).

However, the overall ADP range is relatively flat and well represented across draft rounds, nearly equally. Overall, ADP doesn’t help pinpoint the WR1 breakouts, but it’s at least acknowledging that new WR1s can be found throughout the draft.

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WR1 Candidates in the 2025 WR18-WR50 ADP Range

Eligible Year 1, Year 2, Year 3, Year 5 or Later Wide Receivers:

Honorable Mentions (ADP/Experience Borderline):

Best WRs in YAC:

Second-Year Players Most Likely to Enter WR1 Territory

The top names are obvious, but the player I continue to gravitate toward is Keon Coleman. Again, his ADP is outside the top 50 of receivers. But every year, we get at least one new WR1 from this ADP range.

Before a midseason wrist injury setback in Week 9, Coleman was emerging for Buffalo, averaging over two yards per route run and posting +136 receiving yards over expected (recYOE) — the third-best mark by a rookie wide receiver through eight weeks since 2018, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also led the team in red-zone targets (eight).

Third-Year Players Most Likely to Enter WR1 Territory

Third-year receivers have the highest hit rates to make the leap into the top 12. As already mentioned, a healthy Rashee Rice has the best chance to make the jump. But after him, the remaining names are intriguing.

There’s a lot of talent in this group; the situation just needs to fall favorably:

  • If Baltimore throws more, it’s not hard to see Zay Flowers hitting the top 12 if he can score more touchdowns (he had just four last season).
  • If Jayden Reed sees 100+ targets attached to a healthy Jordan Love, expect the Packers slot receiver to smash his ADP. If Matthew Golden is just average, Reed could take advantage of an offense that won’t have Christian Watson.

Exceptions to the Rule

Jameson Williams is entering his fourth season, but he has only played 33 games. If Williams were a third-year player, he would check off nearly every box of the next WR1 candidate after he broke out last season.

From Week 10 on (post-suspension), Williams was the WR10, averaging nearly 14 fantasy football points per game while commanding a 21% target share, nearly matching Amon-Ra St. Brown down the stretch (excluding St. Brown’s 18-target game versus the Bills in Week 15).

New offensive coordinator John Morton has already dubbed 2025 a “breakout year” for Williams. If the offense shifts away from being so Sun God-centric, Williams’ ceiling could grow even higher.

Rookies With Volume + Efficiency

These are rare but rising. Four of the nine rookie WR1s since 2012 occurred in the last two seasons.

  • Most rookie WR1s were first- or second-round draft picks. (Puka Nacua, drafted in round five, is very far from the norm.)
    • Tetairoa McMillan stands out as a top candidate in this year’s class. A dark horse candidate for me would be Chicago Bears second-round pick Luther Burden. Ben Johnson helped Amon-Ra St. Brown become a WR1 in his second season, and he could help elevate Burden if it’s not Rome Odunze taking the major leap. Burden thrives in the slot and possesses above-average YAC ability.

In the past 13 seasons, nine rookies have performed as WR1s (with four coming in the last two seasons, including three last season). Six of the nine were first-round picks. Two more were second-round picks. Puka Nacua (fifth-round pick) remains the extreme outlier case.

With this data, we can assume that if a rookie does break into the WR1 range in 2025, it will likely be one of the more high-profile prospects. But given that this class was also lackluster compared to previous years, it seems more likely than not that none of the rookies will break into the WR1 conversation. Instead, you are better off buying the dip on some of the second-year wideouts that failed to fire.

Fifth-Year/Sixth-Year WRs on New Teams

This archetype has hit three years in a row: Christian Kirk (2022), DJ Moore (2023) and Jerry Jeudy (2024). A common theme with these three, aside from them hitting on new teams, was that they all had at least one top-26 finish on their career resume, along with multiple seasons with 100+ targets.

Candidates:

Jennings is the most obvious name (especially given the recent news of Ricky Pearsall‘s hamstring injury). It’s Year 6 for him, but he didn’t play at all during his rookie season in 2020. As for the true fifth-year receivers on new teams… there’s no case that is as strong as in previous years. If Keon Coleman does emerge as the No. 1 WR in Buffalo, it’s probably coming at the expense of the older veterans. But Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore are free in drafts. There’s an opportunity if nobody else steps up in the Bills’ offense.

Final Fantasy Football Takeaways

  • Expect 4-5 new WR1s and close to seven that didn’t finish as such in 2024. Thus, 4-5 WR1s from last year won’t repeat.
  • Top candidates to fall out: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
  • Prioritize Year 2/Year 3 WRs and fifth-year wideouts with new teams.
  • From 2012-2024, the following receivers had their first WR1 season in Year 3:
    • 32% of Year 3 WRs
    • 20% of Year 2 WRs
    • 15% of Year 5 WRs
    • 15% of rookie WRs
  • More than 50% of breakouts came from Year 2 and Year 3 receivers, with rookies/fifth-year wideouts making up 30%.
  • Average of 7.2 new WR1s year-over-year (with an average of 4.5 being first-time new WR1s).
  • The WR18-WR50 range remains the richest pool for first-time WR1s. The sweet spot lies from the end of round three into round eight.
  • We’ve averaged at least one new WR1 from outside the top 50 in ADP at the position in each of the last three seasons. Six in total have gone after WR40.
  • Track aDOT, YAC/reception and red-zone usage to distinguish quality volume from empty volume.
  • Chase upside on high-powered offenses — wide receivers with target opportunities with red zone upside.
    • Buffalo’s wide receiver room is ripe for a breakout. Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, Joshua Palmer and even Khalil Shakir fit the mold. Josh Allen‘s MVP play supports WR1 outcomes.
    • Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice is going to smash. I lean Worthy based on how he finished his rookie year and the fact that he isn’t coming off a season-ending injury like Rice. From Week 11 on, Worthy averaged over two yards per route run and 14.6 fantasy football points per game. That was WR8 production over that span.
    • Andy Reid coached similar speedy wideouts in DeSean Jackson and Tyreek Hill to top-12 wide receiver fantasy football finishes in their second seasons.
    • Other than Rice’s injury, both Chiefs wideouts virtually check off the boxes you look for in a future WR1 candidate.

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About Author

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Andrew Erickson

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Andrew Erickson is a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.