When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Here are players to target or avoid with early, middle, and late first-round draft picks in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy
Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Consider at 1.02 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
These players will likely be available when you make your selection:
- Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
- Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
- Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
- Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
Players to Target at 1.02 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
For the most part, the top targets in redraft average draft position (ADP) seem to be the same we’ve seen in best ball leagues for most of the offseason. Ja’Marr Chase is the consensus 1.01, with a barrage of top talent fighting it out behind him. In your league, perhaps Chase won’t go first, but he’s unlikely to fall far. Your big question comes down to running back or wide receiver at the top?
After a resurgence in the running back position, it’s perhaps a little bit surprising to see a wide receiver go as the consensus first overall choice, but Ja’Marr Chase was so dominant last year that people have the utmost confidence in him. Chase led all wide receivers in receptions (117), receiving yards (1,612) and touchdowns (16), along with scoring two more full PPR points per game than the next nearest contender, Justin Jefferson.
There used to be a thought process that Chase only blew up when Tee Higgins was injured, but last year, Chase scored more points when Higgins was healthy at a rate of 24.68 per game when healthy versus 21.36 when he wasn’t. It seems likely the Bengals will finally agree to a deal with Trey Hendrickson after he ended his holdout, if only because, as an organization, they don’t know how to trade.
The fact remains, though, that the Bengals’ defense looks to be set for another year of being bad, causing them to rely heavily on the passing game, and with very little added to solve that this offseason, it’s fair to expect more of the same in 2025. Chase has had over 100 receptions in back-to-back years and has gone over 1,200 receiving yards in three out of four seasons (the only season he didn’t, he still recorded nearly 1,110 yards in 12 games).
Chase is as reliable as they come. If, for any reason, the team at the 1.01 fades Chase, you can feel very confident drafting him with the 1.02 pick.
It’s quite surprising to see Saquon Barkley falling in ADP and consensus rankings coming off a historical year where he rushed for 330 more yards than the next nearest running back. Barkley also notched 15 touchdowns and was a top-five back in seven weeks.
It seems that the worry for Barkley would be whether that efficiency can continue, coming off over 400 combined touches in the playoffs and regular season. The history of running backs seeing that much volume tends not to be kind to them in their next seasons. That is why it’s not as straightforward as some may like, but many people are starting their draft prep for 2025 now and are shocked to see Barkley isn’t the consensus 1.01. Don’t be surprised to see him taken this high in many drafts, even if the rankings are starting to drag him further down.
Unlike Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson has had to deal with a healthy or perhaps unhealthy amount of quarterback turnover in his time with the Minnesota Vikings. That hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, though, averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game throughout his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson.
The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022, and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. The case against Jefferson would be that he’s playing with an inexperienced quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. If both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are also on the field, there are a lot of mouths to be fed.
It is a little hard, however, to elevate Jefferson ahead of Chase when Jefferson is already missing time due to a ‘mild’ hamstring strain. While the use of the word mild is reassuring, soft tissue injuries can linger.
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led all backs with 16 scores during the fantasy season.
Robinson also ranked first out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked in the top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs, per Fantasy Points. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets – it’s the recipe we want to look for in the potential overall fantasy RB1.
Middle-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Consider at 1.07 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Here are players likely to be available when you make your selection:
Players to Target at 1.07 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
This comes down to risk tolerance, and for some, spending a first-round pick on a 29-year-old running back who has only played over 11 games once in the last four years might be a stretch too far. When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is as good as anyone in this league and has won people fantasy championships plenty of times over, but the injury record is cause for concern.
According to reports, McCaffrey took part in everything at organized team activities (OTAs), including some drills most veterans sat out, indicating he’s over his Achilles issues he suffered through in 2024. If he is healthy, then it’s hard to fade an elite pass-catcher and game-breaking talent.
Isaac Guerendo also impressed last year, to the point that the 49ers were willing to trade Jordan Mason to the Vikings. Guerendo averaged 16.3 PPR points in the games where he saw double-digit touches. He could be in for an increased role in 2025. Even if that role eats into McCaffrey’s ceiling, we’re probably still talking about a top-five running back, and we know how hard it is to find them later in drafts.
Whenever we draft rookie running backs this high, it’s worth remembering that since 1984, the only rookie to finish as the RB1 was Saquon Barkley in 2018, but it’s also worth considering that Ashton Jeanty belongs right in the same tier of prospect as Barkley when he entered the league.
Jeanty possesses rare qualities in his vision and pass-catching abilities, and with Geno Smith at quarterback, he’ll play with someone comfortable getting the ball to his best players. Jeanty averaged over six yards per carry in each of his last two seasons in college, and only caught fewer balls in his final season because he was routinely taking it to the house on his carries. The Raiders had no problem drafting Jeanty with the sixth overall pick, and it’s hard not to want to do so in fantasy drafts when he could be a lock for 300+ touches.
The Rams are primed for a bounce-back year, having put their eggs in a Puka Nacua-shaped cart after moving on from Cooper Kupp. Davante Adams should help alleviate some of the pressure from Nacua, with him ranking 58th in ESPN’s open score metric, compared to Kupp, who ranked 108th out of 116 qualifying wide receivers.
Nacua has averaged 6.6 receptions per game over his two seasons and has consistently delivered. The only area he could improve is touchdowns, with nine combined across two seasons, but that shouldn’t be enough to dissuade us from drafting Nacua highly.
One of the true bright spots of 2024 fantasy football was Malik Nabers, who broke Puka Nacua‘s record for rookie receptions with 109. If it weren’t for Brock Bowers getting to 112, he might be talked up even further.
The argument against drafting Nabers last year was his poor quarterback situation, and while it isn’t exactly perfect this year, Nabers showed enough to assuage any doubts. Current reports suggest it’s a true battle between Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart for the QB1 job, with Jameis Winston a distant third choice.
Any of those options could be better than last year’s quadrant of poor options. Among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle all ranked in the bottom 20% of yards per attempt (YPA), and only DeVito ranked above 40th in quarterback rating (33rd).
Wilson ranked 16th in quarterback rating and 18th in YPA, while the Giants believed in Dart enough to spend a first-round pick on him.
Nabers continues to have minimal competition around him, with Wan’Dale Robinson the most noteworthy. Nabers should be set for another top-10 positional finish, having finished as the fantasy WR6 in 2024.
A month ago, it felt like De’Von Achane was firmly undervalued, going towards the 14th pick overall. Now, though, we’re looking at a very different landscape. Since Jonnu Smith‘s trade to Pittsburgh, Achane is firmly establishing himself as a first-round selection.
After a prolific first season in efficiency metrics but lacking in volume, Achane took it up a notch in 2024, despite the Dolphins being a miserable mess. Achane led all running backs with 78 catches, while also leading the position with 591 receiving yards and tying Rachaad White in receiving touchdowns with six apiece.
Achane had 70% of the Dolphins’ carries inside the 5-yard line, a higher number than Bijan Robinson. His only downside was a lack of touches. Now, though, Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert have moved on, and there’s a chance for Achane to break the league.
Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Avoid at 1.12 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
It was a strange 2024 season for AJ Brown with him having the second-highest target share among wide receivers (31.1%) and the fifth-most receiving yards per game (83.0) and yet it translated to WR16 in total PPR points. Even on a per game basis, this only jumped to WR13. Brown’s 7.5 targets per game ranked 23rd among receivers, which highlights the uphill battle he had to relevancy while Saquon Barkley had a season for the history books. Perhaps if Barkley regresses this year, or if the Eagles trend differently under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo then Brown can move back into the top tier of receivers, but right now this is too costly for a player with question marks.
It could be tempting to start dual-RB out of the 12 spot, but forcing Josh Jacobs into that pick if our other selections are gone would be a bad idea. Let’s not ignore that Jacobs had a great 2024 but the Packers were dead last in situational neutral pass rate and forced the ball to Jacobs with the third-highest run rate as Jordan Love struggled from injuries and performance regression. The Packers were also struggling with a wide receiver room that dropped too many passes and struggled for health and consistency. In 2025 that could be different with the addition of Matthew Golden who continues to earn rave reviews in training camp. Jacobs has also struggled to be consistent year over year in his career, with every year where he’s had over 270 touches followed by one where his yards per game regressed as well as his touchdowns. Obviously it’s easier to pick up more yards and more touchdowns when you get more touches, but deeper into the stats we find Jacobs yards after contact per attempt typically dropped in those years too, pointing to Jacobs generally lacking in the year after heavy workloads. Jacobs is a fine mid to late second round pick, but let’s not pull him too far above ADP for the sake of having a running back.
Roster Construction from 1.12
The 1.12 opens up a lot of roster construction possibilities and might just be the best place to pick on the board, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. The good news is that the back half of drafts this year is so strong, you’re almost guaranteed two really good players. If you take Brian Thomas Jr, then you can still get a running back with immense upside, such as De’Von Achane. It’s possible Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen may be gone before your third and fourth round picks, but Jayden Daniels could potentially be available and there are still later round gems like Justin Fields and Drake Maye who possess dual-threat abilities. Wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds tend to be a little more questionable, though, so securing at least one here feels like the right move. Double-tapping the wide receiver position and then considering a double-tap of running backs in your next selections feels like plenty of fun.
Draft Advice for Every First-Round Pick
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.01
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.02
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.04
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.05
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.06
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.07
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.08
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.09
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.10
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.11
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.12
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