Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 4)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 4?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Week 4 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Chase Brown (RB – CIN) vs. Denver Broncos

Highest Rank: 13
Lowest Rank: 27

Chase Brown was widely considered one of the safest picks at running back this season, but has failed to exceed 50 rushing yards in a single game this season and is fresh off arguably his worst performance — just 10 carries for three yards and four receptions for 17 yards. He’s struggling on the ground, averaging fewer than two yards per carry, and he has seen a reduced role in the pass game. Still, Brown is the clear lead back, and the Bengals’ overall offensive struggles are limiting his upside this week.

This week, Brown faces a Denver defense that has been very generous to running backs. They gave up 165 yards to Jonathan Taylor and allowed an overall RB5 performance to Omarion Hampton. It’s possible Brown could have a bounce-back game, particularly through the air, as backs facing the Broncos have had success when it comes to receiving yards. Still, it’s tough to trust a running back whose best performance was barely scraping by as a low-end RB2. It’s hard to imagine an increase in rushing success this week. Brown must thrive through the air to justify a start. He’s a low-end RB2, at best, but is more of a risky Flex play this week.

My Projected Finish: RB21

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) vs. Green Bay Packers

Highest Rank: 15
Lowest Rank: 25

We had high hopes for Dak Prescott in Week 3, moving him up significantly in rankings following an overall QB5 finish in Week 2 against the Giants, where he threw for over 350 yards. In what should have been a very advantageous matchup against a struggling Chicago defense, Prescott finished as the QB17 with just 251 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Losing CeeDee Lamb early certainly didn’t help Prescott, and he’ll be without Lamb again this week and for the foreseeable future.

George Pickens is more than adequate as a No. 1 WR; however, the matchup is an issue. While the Packers are fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Browns, it was their offense that struggled. The Packers’ defense held Joe Flacco to under 150 yards with zero touchdowns, and no Cleveland receiver exceeded 26 yards. The Cowboys could lean heavily on the run, rather than attacking a defense that was successful in limiting passing yardage to both Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff. Prescott goes from a top-five option to a risky streamer. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere.

My Projected Finish: QB17

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Highest Rank: 15
Lowest Rank: 26

Through three games, Brian Thomas Jr. has just seven receptions on 25 targets for 115 yards and no touchdowns. While his production last season came with Mac Jones, it’s not as if he and Trevor Lawrence had zero success together. Thomas caught five touchdowns in nine games with Lawrence last year. There was inconsistency, but there were also big games, which makes the current decline even more concerning. The issue isn’t just Lawrence’s struggles either. Thomas has the lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade of any Jaguars pass-catcher and the highest drop rate on the team.

Combine Thomas’ struggles with Lawrence’s inaccuracy and the Jaguars’ run game thriving through both Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten, and the Jags may opt to lean more into the run game. There is one glimmer of hope. Brock Purdy‘s potential return could lead to more passing volume overall as the Jaguars are forced to chase points. In that instance, we can still turn to Thomas as a risky Flex option.

My Projected Finish: WR25

More Risky Starts

Week 4 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Michael Pittman (WR – IND) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Highest Rank: 28
Lowest Rank: 35

Faith in Michael Pittman as a safe start is directly attached to faith in Daniel Jones. Aside from the matchup against Denver’s secondary, Pittman has had two top-12 finishes in half-PPR scoring and has an excellent opportunity to continue that momentum this week against the Rams. While the Rams are a difficult defensive matchup, their offensive success forces opponents to keep pace, increasing passing opportunities.

We saw that last week with the Eagles’ bounce-back performances from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Pittman is the Colts’ clear No. 1 WR, and while his targets aren’t extreme, they are very consistent, and he’s shown more touchdown equity this early in the season than he’s seen overall in the past several years. Based on his numbers, Pittman’s ranking should be higher, but skepticism lingers from prior years’ performances. Still, the lack of deviation shows that the consensus rankings view him as one of the safer Flex starts this week.

My Projected Finish: WR23

David Montgomery (RB – DET) vs. Cleveland Browns

Highest Rank: 26
Lowest Rank: 31

After the Week 1 scare against Green Bay, where he finished with single-digit fantasy points, David Montgomery bounced back to his usual self and is coming off a massive game of 151 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore. While we shouldn’t expect that level of production, we can safely say he has weathered the storm of offseason rumors that Jahmyr Gibbs would see an increased workload. And make no mistake, that has been the case.

Last season, Montgomery and Gibbs were very even in terms of their attempts and production in the red zone. This season, there’s been a noticeable emphasis on Gibbs’ increased touches inside the 20. He’s second only to Jonathan Taylor in attempts there, butAllAll Montgomery remains extremely relevant in the red zone and has an extremely safe floor. This week’s matchup against Cleveland is less than ideal, but it could be a spot where the Lions lean more heavily on the ground game. Montgomery should still have ample opportunities to remain a solid RB2.

My Projected Finish: RB30

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE) vs. Detroit Lions

Highest Rank: 22
Lowest Rank: 29

In a matter of two weeks with zero preseason work, Quinshon Judkins has become one of the safest running backs. In Week 2, he saw limited snaps as expected and announced by the team, logging 10 carries for 61 yards and three receptions for 10 yards, finishing as the fantasy RB32. In Week 3, Judkins had 18 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown against a Green Bay defense that seemed like it had turned the corner against the run after holding Jahmyr Gibbs to just 19 yards and David Montgomery to 25 yards. The real question is, did the Green Bay defense fold, or is Judkins truly that good?

We’ll find out quickly this week against a Detroit defense that has done an excellent job of bending but not breaking to opposing running backs, fresh off holding Derrick Henry to just 50 yards on the ground. While the matchup isn’t ideal, it’s a luxury in fantasy these days to have a known volume running back. If Cleveland’s defense can keep the game within reach, the Browns can continue to rely on Judkins on the ground. Volume alone makes him a safe start this week rather than turning to the unknown of committee backs.

My Projected Finish: RB23