Week 1 is in the books, and we finally have some actual factual data and film to look back on to help figure out which teams are worth targeting with fantasy defenses. Several teams have had their QB situations change since last season, so let’s check in:
- The Cleveland Browns: Of the four quarterbacks on Cleveland’s roster, veteran Joe Flacco won the role of Week 1 (and Week 2) starter. This went rather badly, with a multi-interception loss to a pretty bad Bengals’ defense. We’re very likely to see Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel eventually this season, but the Browns are shaping up to be a top-tier defense target no matter who is starting.
- The Indianapolis Colts: The Colts made the prudent decision to deploy newly-acquired veteran Daniel Jones instead of continuing to feed Anthony Richardson to the wolves. Jones was excellent in Week 1, though to be fair it was against a truly awful Dolphins team. Jones has been in the league long enough that we know who he is, and that’s a quarterback I’m happy to target with good defenses like this week’s Broncos.
- The Las Vegas Raiders: Geno Smith picked up a win in his first game as a Raider, but he did it while taking four sacks against a not-great Patriots defense. I’m still very willing to target him with good defenses, which there happen to be a lot of on the Raiders’ schedule (AL West problems, amirite?).
- The Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy made his first NFL start following missing his entire rookie season with a knee injury. It was a bit of a weird game, with McCarthy struggling in the first half and throwing a pick-six in the third quarter, before popping off to the tune of 3 touchdowns and a comeback win in the 4th quarter. With an implied point total of 25.5 against the Falcons this week, Vegas clearly thinks it’s legit, so I do too. Rookie mistakes leading to defensive touchdowns are certainly on the table, but I’m not interested in starting any but the best defenses against Minnesota as of now.
- The New York Jets: Justin Fields was the best version of himself we’ve seen in the NFL so far in his first week with the Jets. If that continues with any consistency that will put the Jets firmly in do-not-target territory. But I am going to need to see that consistency before I stop deploying solid defenses against the Jets.
- The Seattle Seahawks: My expectations for new Seahawks QB Sam Darnold was that they’d be a pretty good target this season. Indeed they only put up 13 points against the 49ers, but notably only allowed one sack. It’s possible that Seattle’s offensive line upgrades mean Darnold is no longer someone we should expect 3+ sacks from regularly, but one week is not enough to declare the Seahawks a low-ceiling defense matchup.
- The Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward‘s NFL debut against the best-in-the-league Broncos defense went about as well as you would expect, which is to say 6 sacks and just 12 team points. This is not reason to panic for Titans fans, but it is reason to target Ward with any defense that has a real pass rush for the time being.
Streaming Defenses: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 2)
While the pool of defenses with a good outlook is shallow this week, some of the best options are available in most leagues, so it’s still a decent week for streaming. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo, where 10-team leagues are a majority due to it being the default. You can find me on Bluesky.
Week 2 D/ST Fantasy Football Projections
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | LAR | @TEN | Cam Ward | 18.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.41 | 27% |
| 2 | SF | @NO | Spencer Rattler | 18.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.26 | 34% |
| 3 | BAL | CLE | Joe Flacco | 16.25 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 6.98 | 96% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 4 | PIT | SEA | Sam Darnold | 18.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.77 | 99% |
| 5 | DEN | @IND | Daniel Jones | 20 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.74 | 100% |
| 6 | DAL | NYG | Russell Wilson | 19.25 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.71 | 7% |
| 7 | ARI | CAR | Bryce Young | 19.25 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.69 | 61% |
| 8 | BUF | @NYJ | Justin Fields | 19.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.65 | 73% |
| 9 | LAC | @LV | Geno Smith | 21.75 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 6.24 | 50% |
| 10 | DET | CHI | Caleb Williams | 21.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 6.17 | 74% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | HOU | TB | Baker Mayfield | 20 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6.13 | 76% |
| 12 | MIA | NE | Drake Maye | 21.25 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 6.08 | 3% |
| 13 | TB | @HOU | C.J. Stroud | 22.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.04 | 5% |
| 14 | ATL | @MIN | J.J. McCarthy | 25.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 5.78 | 1% |
| 15 | TEN | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 23.75 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.61 | 0% |
| 16 | SEA | @PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 21.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.61 | 22% |
| 17 | GB | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 22.25 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.58 | 46% |
| 18 | JAC | @CIN | Joe Burrow | 26.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5.36 | 2% |
| 19 | NO | SF | Brock Purdy | 23 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.26 | 1% |
| 20 | CIN | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 23 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.25 | 14% |
| 21 | NE | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 22.75 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.09 | 14% |
| 22 | LV | LAC | Justin Herbert | 25.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.05 | 1% |
| 23 | KC | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 24 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.99 | 84% |
| 24 | CAR | @ARI | Kyler Murray | 25.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.97 | 0% |
| 25 | PHI | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 23 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.92 | 99% |
| 26 | NYG | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 25.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.89 | 4% |
| 27 | IND | DEN | Bo Nix | 22.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4.69 | 1% |
| 28 | CHI | @DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.42 | 7% |
| 29 | NYJ | BUF | Josh Allen | 26 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 25% |
| 30 | MIN | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 20 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4.01 | 94% |
| 31 | WAS | @GB | Jordan Love | 25.75 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.01 | 45% |
| 32 | CLE | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 28.75 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3.86 | 7% |
Week 2 Matchups
- LAR @ TEN: Cam Ward was pushed into the deep end of the NFL in week 1, facing the best overall defense, the Broncos. This went exactly how you’d expect – 6 sacks, a fumble, and only 12 points. There are better games ahead for Ward, but probably not in week 2. The Rams are also an excellent defense, and have similar potential for sacks.
- SF @ NO: The Saints’ offense under Spencer Rattler was unsurprisingly weak, putting up only 13 points against an unspectacular Cardinals defense. To his credit he avoided turnovers and took only one sack, leading to a mere 5 fantasy points for Arizona’s defense. That sort of low-power, low-counting stats game from New Orleans is on the table, but that’s not what I expect against the 49ers, who should be able to get to the quarterback a few more times.
- BAL vs CLE: Last week, Joe Flacco was bad against a pretty weak Bengals defense, throwing two interceptions and failing to crack 20 points. Cleveland has several options at quarterback who they might deploy this season, but as far as we know Flacco will start again in week 2. Until one of them proves otherwise, the Browns are a prime target for fantasy defenses with any of their potential quarterback starters.
- PIT vs SEA: The Steelers got roughed up against the best version of Justin Fields last week, but one week of that won’t scare me off of starting the them against he Seahawks. In his first start with the team, Sam Darnold led the Seahawks to just 13 points, though he did take only a single sack. Last year Darnold was one of the more sack-able quarterbacks in the league in Minnesota, and Seattle had one of the worst offensive lines. In addition to acquiring Darnold the Seahawks made some moves to improve their line in the offseason, and based on last week and the preseason it appears to be working. But we’ll need to see it a few more times before we decide Darnold isn’t someone we should expect 3+ sacks from regularly. This is a good bounce-back opportunity for the Steelers after last week’s shootout with the Jets.
- DEN @ IND: The Broncos’ defense unsurprisingly terrorized the Titans and rookie Cam Ward last week. Daniel Jones played one of the best games of his career in Week 1, leading the Colts to score on every single drive, a first for any team this Millenium. And yet, that did include multiple field goals and only 7 drives, against a Dolphins defense that is looking like the worst in the league. Now he has to face the best. The Broncos have some tough matchups which might be tough decisions in weeks 3-5, but this week they’re a no-brainer to start.
- DAL vs NYG: The Giants were totally ineffective with Russell Wilson, scoring a meastly 6 points against a pretty good Commanders defense. Personally I think Wilson will figure it out this season, but that might be a long and painful process. Dallas lost the season opener against Philadelphia, but this big story there was CeeDee Lamb‘s drops in the second half. Holding unstoppable Eagles offense to 24 points is honestly pretty good, so I feel decent about them facing the Giants.
- ARI vs CAR: The Cardinals’ defense got the job done last week, holding the Saints to just 13 points. But it didn’t end up being a particularly good fantasy day due to a lack of turnovers and only one sack. Bryce Young is a better quarterback than Spencer Rattler, but last week he played worse, turning the ball over to the Jaguars 3 times. Starting the Cardinals this week is betting on a pretty reasonable chance of another multi-turnover game from Young.
- BUF @ NYJ: Last week Justin Fields lived up to the hopes and dreams of all the fantasy analysts who’ve been singing his praises, against what’s supposed to be a very good Steelers defense. He’s well known to be a major rushing threat which informs his upside in fantasy, and for one week he seemed to also have it together as a passer. Buffalo giving up 40 points last week is not a reason to bench them, you would expect that for any defense against Lamar Jackson. I wouldn’t blame you if you fade them against Fields this week, but there is still a very real possibility that he throws interceptions trying to keep up with the Bills’ offense.
- LAC @ LV: Last week Geno Smith and the Raiders picked up the win against New England, but they did it with only 20 points and Smith took 4 sacks, making it still a decent fantasy total for the Patriots defense. The Chargers took down the once-untouchable Chiefs and are now frontrunners for the AL West. This should be an easy win for the Chargers by virtue of their offense, and it’s very possible their defense gets to Smith even more times than the Patriots did. If the Raiders find themselves in a negative game script, that increases the chances of turnovers too. There is a lot of upside here.
- DET vs CHI: Many were ringing alarm bells about a Lions team that lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason, and last week’s poor performance against the Packers made that look wise. Meanwhile Caleb Williams and the Bears had a pretty good game under head coach and former Lions OC Ben Johnson, though it ended in a loss due to a major clock management error. Still, Williams has a history of taking a lot of sacks, even when his performance is good otherwise. The Lions this week are a low-end start, hoping for another game with big sack numbers for Caleb Williams.
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