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Players to Buy
3 down weeks for Bijan Robinson. If you can somehow buy low…do it.
CeeDee Lamb once again commanded elite usage, drawing a 31% target share and 42% of the team’s air yards, but failed to find the end zone despite multiple end-zone targets and 117 incomplete air yards. He finished with 7 catches for 85 yards on 12 targets and remains a prime buy-low candidate given his consistent volume and elite route involvement.
Lamb is averaging a 28% target share since returning from injury in Week 7. If you can trade for him on his bye week to a manager with a losing record…Full send.
Last four games when healthy, Drake London has averaged 12.5 targets, 7.7 receptions, and 107 receiving yards per game. Solid playoff schedule as well (TB, ARI, LAR).
Always be buying.
Running back Ashton Jeanty continued to look like a three-down workhorse. He handled 90% of the snaps, with 13 carries for 42 yards and 5 receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, Jeanty forced 9 missed tackles (his second-most in a game this season) and generated 71 yards after the catch, a career high. He also logged 3 goal-line carries and handled virtually all of the two-minute offense. Through Week 9, Jeanty has now forced 46 missed tackles, the third-most in the NFL entering Sunday Night Football.
The advice remains the same as the last two weeks.
The Raiders – per the SOS tool – have a top playoff schedule for fantasy RBs. Per the SOS tool…Raiders have the No. 1 schedule for RBs in the fantasy playoffs. Although being fully transparent, the Eagles/Texans aren’t amazing matchups even if they are somewhat plus spots on paper.
It’s not perfect, but there are some decent spots for a three-down workhorse like Jeanty, who ranks 12TH in the NFL in total touches.
RB15 in XPGG and RB17 FPPG.
The Broncos x2, Eagles and Texans aren’t ideal – even if the Chargers/Cowboys/Giants are fantastic. Week 17 versus the Giants might be worth it to acquire Jeanty for a championship-level performance. I still want to buy Jeanty.
Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 24 passes for 152 yards without a touchdown or interception, managing the offense efficiently but without much explosiveness through the air in Week 8. His leading target was Emeka Egbuka, who drew a team-high nine targets, catching three passes for 35 yards. Down game for the rookie, but the usage was solid again for a second straight game.
58% air yards share and a 38% target share (67 incomplete air yards) to go with two more end-zone targets. It’s ironic that finally Egbuka is getting alpha usage, but the production has been lackluster. When to start the year, he was overproducing based on a sub-par role. Either way, you want to go aggressively after Egbuka in his bye week. 10-plus targets per game over the last two games. Four end zone targets. Over 180 incomplete air yards.
Remember…Egbuka hurt his hamstring two weeks ago and almost didn’t play versus the Lions. Coming out of the bye week, he should be closer to full go.
Pat Freiermuth returned to the end zone, catching three of four targets for 27 yards and a red-zone touchdown. Jonnu Smith (3-25) and DK Metcalf (2-6) chipped in minimal gains on just four targets. Metcalf was put back in his low ADOT role with two RZ targets inside the 5-yard line – while Roman Wilson (1-4) and running back Kaleb Johnson (1-9) rounded out the receiving production. Bad game for Metcalf’s usage with Rodgers only attempting quick throws. Even so…I still love the schedule for DK. He’s already had his bye week and seems destined to be a fantasy WR2 at worst ROS, even if he doesn’t score a TD every single week (even though it seems like it happens every week). However, I think you can wait…given his price might get cheaper if the Steelers trade for a WR before the November 4th deadline.
The Steelers ROS schedule is GREAT for WRs, and No.1 in the fantasy playoffs: Dolphins, Lions, and Browns.
Buying Metcalf after his worst game of the season is a quintessential process buy low maneuver.
Jaylen Waddle once again served as the offensive focal point in Tyreek Hill‘s absence, commanding a 23% target share and 35% air yards share. He caught six of nine targets for 82 yards, and it could have been an even bigger day had a long reception not been wiped out by a questionable tripping penalty. Waddle has now topped 82 yards in four of his five games this season without Hill, averaging over seven targets and 78 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (9-game sample size). He’s cemented himself as an auto-start WR1 with Hill out. After the BAL-MIA game, Miami fired its general manager but reaffirmed its commitment to head coach Mike McDaniel, ensuring continuity for an offense built around speed and spacing. The Dolphins’ final eight games feature five at home — an ideal setup for fantasy production. With Achane commanding elite usage and Waddle thriving as the WR1 in Hill’s absence, this offense remains a buy-low opportunity for savvy managers looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs.
Rookie Tetairoa McMillan led the team in targets (6, 30% target share), receptions (4), and yards (46), while Xavier Legette added a 22-yard grab on a deep shot. 53% air yards share.
Again, Rico Dowdle stole the production, but McMillan’s peripherals are super strong – as they have been all season.
The rookie WR is 12th in XPPG this season. Also, the Panthers have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs.
In the backfield, Kenneth Walker reclaimed control of the rotation, playing 54% of the snaps and handling both goal-line carries (a role that often goes to Zach Charbonnet). Walker rushed 11 times for 42 yards (3.8 YPC) and caught 2 passes for 19 yards, marking his first multi-catch game since Week 1 — a subtle but important development in his usage. Charbonnet played 38% of snaps, rushing 8 times for 25 yards and catching his lone target for 21 yards, while George Holani saw cleanup duty in the fourth quarter of the blowout.
I never want to have major takeaways after a blowout regarding usage, but the Walker bump is noteworthy.
Now, Walker has had GL opportunities before, so it’s possible it just goes right back to that split next week. But if it doesn’t…that makes Walker a screaming “buy-low” option.
If you are hurting at RB – I like buying Walker dirt cheap, just at the potential. The worst case is that he just remains an RB2 on a great offense.
Tight end Tyler Warren was active underneath, catching five passes for 26 yards on seven targets (thrice in the red zone), while running back Jonathan Taylor added two receptions for 12 yards.
Warren’s been quiet in back-to-back games, so perhaps the manager is getting frustrated with all the Colts’ WRs eating and not their rookie tight end. Take advantage and buy low. When you consider penalties, he actually had nine targets versus the Steelers.
If Ricky Pearsall starts practicing this week, it’s possible he could return this week. Another buy among this 49ers WR room. PFF’s 21st-highest graded WR in four games played. And he has a chance to practice/play this week.
Must-add/trade for dirt-cheap.
TreVeyon Henderson continued to be a dual-threat option, catching four passes for 32 yards on six targets (21% target share) and contributing in pass protection. He looked much better in pass pro this week – which I think is going to grant him more touches/snaps even if Rhamondre Stevenson returns. The Patriots’ backfield was controlled by Henderson, who played 77% of the offensive snaps (not including the final two kneel downs) and handled 18 total touches (14 carries for 55 yards, plus 4 catches for 32 yards). His workload dominance firmly establishes him as the lead back moving forward, as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is sidelined. Terrell Jennings mixed in on 23% of the snaps and made the most of his touches, rushing 11 times for 35 yards and a short touchdown while catching one pass for nine yards — functioning as the goal-line and short-yardage complement to Henderson. A classic thunder and lightning backfield. But expect another back to be added – given Stevenson’s injury and the reporting that NE is going to trade for another RB. Good for Henderson to finally flash the juice in back-to-back games. Again. Rookies always have bigger roles in the second halves of seasons. Hope you were somewhat patient. More importantly, the Fantasy playoffs – Pats have Bills/Ravens/Jets (with Bengals and Giants Weeks 12-13). If Henderson can just hit his stride during these three weeks, he can finish his rookie campaign on a high note. The Patriots have the No. 1 schedule ROS for RBs.
Jakobi Meyers will provide a slight boost to Trevor Lawrence – although his impact after being traded is probably better for his individual WR fantasy value, given the history of Liam Coen and slot WRs.
The Giants have the No. 1 schedule ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Brock Purdy will be back under center at some point (expected to be this week), along with several other 49ers WRs.
The playoff schedule for the 49ers in fantastic – so I’d be trying to get at least one Niner on my bench for the playoff run. Whether that be Purdy or one of these WR pieces.
Dalton Kincaid was the star of the day, catching all 6 of his targets for 101 yards and a touchdown, marking just the second 100-yard performance of his career. Kincaid created 3+ yards of separation on 4 of his 6 targets, accounting for 84 yards and his score — both career bests on well-timed seam and corner routes. He led a tight end group that combined for 5 catches, 130 yards, and a touchdown on downfield targets, with Dawson Knox (1 catch, 30 yards) and Jackson Hawes (1 catch, 18 yards) contributing key chunk plays.
Kincaid continues to “get away with it” in fantasy despite playing a limited snap role. He only played 34% of the snaps while running 16 routes versus KC.
But this has been his usage all year when he’s been a fantasy TE1. The Bills TE has posted a 25% target rate per route run (4th among all TEs).
He’s being hyper-targeted and while remaining hyper-efficient. Possibly the efficiency tails off…but beggars can’t be choosers at tight end. And it’s entirely possible that Kincaid could see his routes increase from the 55% rate in Week 9. It was as high as 70% earlier this season.
A healthy Kincaid is emerging as Allen’s go-to guy. Don’t overthink it.
Tight end Kyle Pitts was featured but contained, catching 4 of 7 targets for 38 yards (2 RZ targets and 50 incomplete air yards), while Darnell Mooney contributed one 15-yard reception on two targets. Pitts has been up and down – but he’s been better than Mooney. Mooney is PFF’s 4th-worst graded WR this season. The ROS schedule is favorable for Pitts, ranking favorably in the next four games. If you are hurting at tight end…Pitts might be a sneaky trade for target. The Falcons’ TE is third in receptions this season. 3-plus receptions in every game this season
Romeo Doubs led the way with 10 targets, catching 7 passes for 91 yards (41% air yards share) and serving as Love’s primary chain-mover, while Christian Watson flashed explosiveness before getting banged up, hauling in 2 catches for 58 yards — including a 52-yard deep shot that set up a score. Watson averaged nearly 27 air yards per target and ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks playing a full-time role. Add Watson given all the injuries.
Minnesota has a solid stretch of matchups as the fantasy playoffs come into play for the Vikings. Top-10 schedule rest of season for WRs and for QBs.
No. 1 schedule for QBs ROS. Add JJ McCarthy. In two of his three games played this season the Vikings second-year QB has been a top-13 QB averaging north of 20 PPG. He is also adding value as a rusher (two rushing TDs).
Players to Sell
Derrick Henry powered the ground game, rushing 19 times for 119 yards (6.3 YPC), generating +36 rushing yards over expected — his most in a game since Week 1 — and 118 of those yards came after contact, marking the fifth-highest total by a running back this season (next gen stats). Henry faced light boxes on 26% of his carries, his highest rate of the year, and ripped off 66 yards on five such attempts. He was stuffed twice at the goal line, leaving fantasy managers wanting more, but his efficiency and power were back on full display. Note that his playoff schedule is tougher. Something to file away before the fantasy football trade deadline. Weeks 16-17 are Pats/Packers.
The Pats matchup is the one I am most concerned about given they have not allowed any RB to go over 50 rushing yards. And since Henny is not used as a receiver, he can’t take advantage of their defense’s weakness. Being nit-picky, but something to keep top of mind regarding Henry in trades.
Hall erupted for 147 yards and two scores, even throwing a TD pass back in Week 8, presenting a perfect sell-high spot. His upcoming schedule (CLE, NE) is a gauntlet, and the Jets offense remains volatile. Weeks 15-16 are both on the road, and Week 17 is the Pats. If he stays in New York, the bust risk is high; if he’s traded, role potentially uncertain. Flip him now for a locked-in asset before regression hits. Again…the Bengals defense is TERRIBLE (see Bears game).
Brown missed Week 8 and could return post-bye, but the Eagles’ passing volatility creates weekly boom-or-bust outcomes. With DeVonta Smith thriving and Saquon Barkley starting to heat up, target volume may normalize lower. His name still commands WR1 trade value despite the fact that Smith has been the more productive WR this season. Sell into that brand before Philadelphia leans heavier on the run.
After two strong weeks – you “could” get a ton for DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown should return after the bye week (although hamstring injuries can be tricky). Or even trading AJB should still be on your radar. Eagles offense was fine on Sunday without jamming him targets.
And as I think about this situation more…shouldn’t Smith be valued over AJB?
This season, Smith is PFF’s 9th-highest graded WR. Brown is 23rd. Through 7 games they have nearly identical target shares. However Smith has been much more efficient. Has more yards/catches by a substantial margin. Smith is averaging 2.24 yards per route. Career high.
I always talk about No. 2 WRs being undervalued…and Smith feels like that guy because of AJB’s alpha-ness. But given the way AJB has carried him self this season, I think Smith might finish this season as the Eagles No. 1 WR. We have seen teams phase out alphas post bye weeks.
And don’t forget that Brown still needs to overcome this hamstring…which might be a contributing factor to his lack of efficiency in 2025.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. delivered a signature performance, catching 7 (career-high) of 10 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown, including 5 receptions for 61 yards and the score against DaRon Bland. Harrison roasted Bland repeatedly, and per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys corner allowed 9 receptions for 144 yards, the third-most by any defender in a game this season. Last week, I mentioned I didn’t think it was going to happen with Marv Jr. with Kyler Murray as his QB. Also, not in love with the start of the postseason schedule either for Arizona (HOU, ATL), but Cincy in Week 17 might be all that matters. Last week wasn’t the week to sell. Dallas is the gift that keeps on giving, and that was proved true on MNF. But I’m not nearly as convinced Murray is going to return as the starter. Arizona’s offense has been better with Brissett. But Jonathan Gannon said post-game that Murray will be the starting quarterback when he returns. Ergo, the offense could regress from what we have seen with Brissett. Unfortunately, that makes MHJ a sell high. I think you can wait this week, though, before shipping him off just to gather more info on Murray’s status for Week 10. But if we get more news about Brissett being the starter the rest of the way…that’s a plus for this offense.
With Oronde Gadsden emerging and Ladd McConkey reclaiming WR1 status…QJ is will be tough to trust and difficult for fantasy managers to deal with. It’s now 3 games since his injury that his targets have tanked (sub-18% target shares).
Something has also happened to Keenan Allen, who is entering a similar TD or bust territory with his targets falling off in the last two contests. We know that these Chargers WRs have weekly upside. They play Dallas in Week 16. Even if QJ/Allen rides your bench or is a boom/bust option until Week 16…that one game alone could make them worth targeting/rostering as I explained last week. That being said…Johnston is still PFF’s 35th-lowest graded WR this season. The lowest among the top-3 Bolts WRs.
Long story short – all these Chargers WRs/TEs have tremendously weekly upside. If somebody is undervaluing that week-winning potential. I’d take advantage. Like we saw with QJ’s injury…just takes one guy to miss for the production floodgates to open for the other Chargers pass-catchers. But if the volatile nature of QJ is too much – or he just can’t be dealt then I think you have to hold him. A very price-dependent player that should be traded a lot. I think there’s a price where QJ and/or Allen is serviceable, but they project to be very boom-or-bust. When the Chargers get Omarion Hampton back they could lean on the ground game more. Also FWIW, the Chargers ROS for WRs in near the bottom of the league (playoffs withstanding of course).
Layer in the OL injuries with Joe Alt – and the offense becomes more of an issue. Alt will miss the rest of the season with his ankle injury. Bobby Hart also got hurt versus the Titans. The OL injuries are a big concern for Quentin Johnston – given he runs the most deep/go routes. Less time makes it more likely Herbert goes to his quick outlets – ie, his slot WRs and his tight end who can create yards after the catch. So, although I opened this section a bit pessimistic on Allen…he leads the Chargers in targets Weeks 4-7 when Joe Alt played just 10 snaps. We might see his targets bounce back – so I think he’s a hold if you didn’t already trade him away. QJ very much remains the sell-high after the TD grab. Schedule is tough over the next four weeks for WRs and bottom-7 ROS.
Over the next four games…the Chargers have the worst schedule for WRs in the NFL.
Making his first NFL start, seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai was unstoppable, rushing 26 times for 176 yards (6.8 YPC) and adding 3 receptions for 22 yards on 5 targets, while playing 75% of the offensive snaps. He forced six missed tackles and generated 123 rushing yards after contact, both career highs. According to Next Gen Stats, Monangai was hit behind the line of scrimmage on only 11.5% of his carries (3 times) — the lowest rate by any running back with 20+ carries this season. His combination of vision, balance, and burst powered a Bears offense that looked confident and physical throughout.
Who knows when D’Andre Swift will return after he failed to practice at all last week with a groin injury. I thought maybe that Monangai would be a perfect “sell-high” candidate, but waiver wire guys are so hard to trade for value that matches their production. If you can get a good deal – take it. I think you just hold and ride it out, as the schedule is tough in the playoffs (and after the Giants at home. The Bears have a tougher schedule for RBs in the playoffs: CLE, GB, and SF. Eventually, you will need to get off this ride. Maybe not now…but something to keep in mind if somebody offers Swift to you in a trade.
And although I’ve admitted that Swift has played better this season – returning from an injury doesn’t inspire me with confidence, especially if it’s a true 50/50 split versus a 1A/1B Bears’ backfield.
Samuel handled his usual hybrid role, catching 5 of 6 targets for 41 yards (27% target share) and adding a 3-yard rush. His usage remains strong, though the quarterback change could limit red-zone opportunities. Looked better after coming off the injury report this past week.
Still, Samuel’s tendencies to fall off in the second halves of seasons – especially in what looks like a lost year for Washington – is concerning. Samuel has finished outside the top-45 fantasy WRs in three straight games…despite averaging over 5 targets/game.
The backfield continued to sputter. Alvin Kamara played 58 percent of the snaps, carrying six times for just 14 yards (lost a fumble) and catching one pass for three yards, while rookie Devin Neal played 40 percent and added 11 rushing yards plus one short reception. Neal handled the Saints’ only red-zone rushing attempt, but the pair split passing routes nearly 50-50. Taysom Hill ran four times for 30 yards — nearly all of which came on that single 29-yard burst in the first quarter — but otherwise had little impact.
The Saints RB1 continues to look like a shell of himself. Bottom-dwelling offense. And he has been adamant about not being traded, so he’s stuck on the Saints.
Kamara is PFF’s lowest graded RB this season.
No one has scored fewer points under expectation than Kamara. He should be RB15. He’s instead RB30.
Despite the chaos, Trevor Lawrence did just enough; completing 23 of 34 passes for 220 yards and an interception, while scoring two rushing touchdowns on designed runs near the goal line. He was steady but inefficient, with multiple red-zone trips bogging down due to penalties and missed execution.
The Jaguars have the worst schedule ROS for QBs. T-Law won’t score two rushing TDs every week and the WR room is in rough shape. Remains to be seen how much a boost Jakobi Meyers will provide to Lawrence – although it’s probably good for his WR fantasy value given the history of Liam Coen and slot WRs.
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