The suggested game stacks this year have typically featured high totals and slight spreads. Occasionally, they’ve featured slight spreads and mediocre totals. This week’s suggested game stacks have totals of 50.5 points and 50, respectively. Yet, those games also have sizable spreads. Nevertheless, each of those games has multiple exciting, high-upside, slate-breaking talents. Thus, two players from those games are among the suggested core studs. Finally, the core studs and values/punts sections include a skinny stack.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 12
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bengals vs. Patriots
Spread/Total: NE -7.0/50.5 Points
Ja’Marr Chase is suspended this week after making the vile decision to spit on Jalen Ramsey. As a result, Tee Higgins should see all the targets he can handle. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Chase had a 40.4% air yards share, 33.8% target share, 0.34 targets per route run and 44.3% first-read rate in Joe Flacco’s five starts. He leaves behind a massive piece of the pie.
Higgins wasn’t a slouch in those contests, though. He had the following stats.
- 84.7% route participation rate
- 13.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 33.8% air yards share
- 16.4% target share
- 0.19 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 23.6% first-read rate
- 22 receptions (4.4 per game)
- 386 receiving yards (77.2 per game)
- 2.05 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- Five touchdowns
- Four end-zone targets
- 19.1 DraftKings points per game
- 16.9 FanDuel points per game
Could he see a few more layups mixed in with his deep shots? Maybe. Fortunately, Flacco isn’t shy about throwing 50/50 balls to Higgins, so Higgins should have ample opportunities to pile up fantasy points, even if he doesn’t receive an uptick in easier targets. Furthermore, it appears Joe Burrow could be back this week, which would be ahead of even the optimistic timeline of a return on Thanksgiving.
Circling back to Flacco, since Week 6, Flacco is second in passing yards per game (290.6), third in passing touchdowns (12), third in DraftKings points per game (23.3) and third in FanDuel points per game (23.1). He had a dud last week, and Chase’s absence creates more volatility for the veteran pocket passer. Nevertheless, he’ll likely chuck the ball a ton for the underdog Bengals against a pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Patriots are tied for facing the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this year, and they’ve faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 7. Flacco let down the gamers who used him against the Steelers last week. Still, he’s earned some grace for a dud and should be considered in GPPs as part of this game stack. Alternatively, Burrow would instantly be in the GPP mix if he started this weekend.
Burrow is the highest profile Bengal who might return this week, but Mike Gesicki also appears likely to suit up this weekend after logging a full practice on Wednesday, when the club opened his 21-day practice window to return from the injured reserve (IR).
Gesicki could immediately step into a prominent role without Chase. Cincinnati’s No. 1 wide receiver didn’t miss any games last year. Yet, Higgins missed five games last season, and Gesicki had the following numbers in those contests.
- 59.9% route participation rate
- 9.1-yard aDOT
- 22.5% air yards share
- 18.3% target share
- 0.28 TPRR
- 7.2 targets per game
- 22.6% first-read rate
- 26 receptions (5.2 per game)
- 312 receiving yards (62.4 per game)
- 2.40 Y/RR
- Two touchdowns
- Four end-zone targets
- 14.2 DraftKings points per game
- 11.4 FanDuel points per game
Gesicki doesn’t need to duplicate his production without Higgins in 2024 on Sunday to provide DFS gamers with value, but it’s encouraging that he stepped up without one of Cincinnati’s top-shelf wideouts in 2024. At the minimum salary on FanDuel and just $100 above the minimum salary at DraftKings, he can provide gamers with valuable salary relief in all game types.
Sometimes, things are straightforward in DFS. A running back with a modest salary and a workhorse role is valuable, even in a challenging matchup. Brown had a 96% snap share in Week 9 and an 82% snap share after Cincinnati’s Week 10 bye. In those two contests, Brown recorded 29 rush attempts, 126 rushing yards, 22 targets, 14 receptions and 103 receiving yards. Brown has ripped off at least 100 scrimmage yards in four consecutive games. Samaje Perine didn’t practice on Wednesday. Brown is a viable DFS option this week if Perine is out. According to the lineup optimizer, Brown is projected as the RB8 at both DFS outlets, with the RB6 value score (the measure of points per $1,000) at DraftKings and tying for the RB4 value score at FanDuel.
Drake Maye is projected as the QB1 at both DFS providers, with the QB2 value score at DraftKings and the QB1 value score at FanDuel. Frankly, while Cincinnati’s pitiful run defense has garnered most of the headlines in the fantasy football and DFS community, it’s pitiful against the pass, too. According to Sumer Sports, the Bengals have allowed the most expected points added per pass (EPA). According to Pro Football Reference, Maybe is fourth in passing yards per game (258.7), third in adjusted net passing yards per attempt (8.00) and fourth in passing touchdowns (20) this season. Maye can also score fantasy points with his legs, and his ceiling would be elevated if the Bengals could punch back on Sunday afternoon.
Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry are the best stacking options with Maye. They’re also viable options without Maye. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Bengals have played single-high coverage at the eighth-highest rate (55.5%) this year. Diggs has 0.25 TPRR and 2.72 Y/RR on 148 routes against single-high coverage this year. Additionally, since Week 7, Diggs has had a 73.2% route participation rate, 52.2% slot rate, 21.9% air yards share, 23.9% target share, 27 receptions (5.4 per game), 272 receiving yards (54.4 per game), 2.03 Y/RR and three touchdowns. Diggs’ slot usage is especially noteworthy. DJ Turner has been the lone bright spot on Cincinnati’s defense, often bottling up the opposition’s No. 1 wide receiver. However, Pro Football Focus (PFF) credits Turner with just 22 snaps aligned in the slot, and his season-high was six in Week 9. Diggs is a screaming value at FanDuel, where he has the WR1 value score and projects as the WR6.
As for Henry, he has the Rolls-Royce of DFS matchups at tight end. Cincinnati’s 22.5 DraftKings points per game allowed to tight ends this year are 4.7 more than the second-highest total, and the 18.6 FanDuel points per game they’ve permitted to the position are 4.4 more than the second-highest mark. Unsurprisingly, Henry has the TE1 value score at DraftKings and is tied for the TE1 value score at FanDuel.
Game: Lions vs. Giants
Spread/Total: DET -10.5/50.0 Points
The Lions are in an eruption spot, indoors at home. Jared Goff has carved up defenses for 256.8 passing yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns in just four home games this year. Meanwhile, the Giants have yielded 218.6 passing yards per game and 12 touchdowns with zero interceptions in their previous five games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit’s top passing-game weapon and one of the top wideouts in the NFL. Among 68 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this year, the Sun God is tied for 11th in air yards share (39.1%), sixth in target share (29.1%), fourth in targets per route run (0.30), fourth in receptions (66 at 6.6 per game), eighth in receiving yards per game (73.5) and second in receiving touchdowns (eight). ARSB is projected as the WR2 at both DFS sites this week, with the WR4 value score at DraftKings and the WR3 value score at FanDuel.
Jameson Williams‘ season didn’t take off until Dan Campbell took play-calling duties in Week 10. In two games with Campbell calling the offense, Williams has had the following numbers.
- 89.2% route participation rate
- 11.4-yard aDOT
- 35.3% air yards share
- 18.1% target share
- 0.20 TPRR
- 19.6% first-read rate
- 10 receptions
- 207 receiving yards
- 3.14 Y/RR
- Two receiving touchdowns
- One rush
- Nine rushing yards
Williams should stay hot against the Giants. Big Blue has played man coverage at the highest rate (40.5%) this year and single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (58.5%). Detroit’s speedy wideout has logged 0.21 TPRR and 2.85 Y/RR on 71 routes against man coverage and 0.20 TPRR and 2.51 Y/RR on 156 routes against single-high coverage this year.
Jaxson Dart still has hurdles to clear in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but he’s progressing in the right direction. The rookie quarterback has been a DFS dreamboat. He has averaged 202.4 passing yards per game and 45.3 rushing yards per game with 10 passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns in seven career starts. The G-Men have also scored at least 20 points in six of his seven starts, which provides some hope for Big Blue to force the Lions to keep their foot on the accelerator and make this a DFS-friendly game-stack. Jameis Winston‘s willingness to sling it and punt-priced salary would make him an acceptable option if Dart couldn’t clear the NFL’s concussion protocol this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson is Big Blue’s top healthy receiver. He had team highs in route participation rate (93.1%), target share (25.4%), first-read rate (27.8%), receptions (38 at 5.4 per game) and receiving yards per game (54.1) in Dart’s starts, adding one touchdown reception. Robinson is an optimizer darling, with the WR1 value score at DraftKings and tying for the WR4 value score at FanDuel.
Darius Slayton was out last week with a hamstring injury. He didn’t practice to begin the week, and his status must be monitored. Still, Slayton has paced the Giants in air yards share (34.3%) and logged a 16.9% target share, 0.21 TPRR, 17 receptions (3.4 per game), 50.4 receiving yards per game and 2.05 Y/RR in Dart’s starts. Finally, the Lions have faced the second-highest target rate (51.3%) to players aligned wide since Week 7, and Slayton has aligned on the perimeter 81.3% of the time in Dart’s starts. Isaiah Hodgins is an intriguing punt if Slayton is out after parlaying a 77.4% route participation into six targets, five receptions and 57 receiving yards without Slayton last week.
Core Studs
- Predictably, Trey McBride is projected as the TE1 this week, tying for the TE3 value score at DraftKings and tying for the TE1 value score at FanDuel. McBride has a 25.8% air yards share, 25.8% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 8.4 receptions per game, 88.6 receiving yards per game, 2.12 Y/RR, six receiving touchdowns, 25.1 DraftKings points per game and 20.9 FanDuel points per game in Jacoby Brissett‘s five starts this season. McBride is matchup-proof. Still, he has a drool-inducing matchup, with the Jaguars surrendering the second-most DraftKings points per game (17.8) and FanDuel points per game (14.2) to tight ends this season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs is justifiably projected as the RB1 with the RB1 value score on this slate. Gibbs has ripped off 318 scrimmage yards, three touchdowns and eight receptions in two games with Campbell as the play-caller, logging 19 and 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets). The Giants have permitted the second-most rushing yards per game (175.2), 5.96 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns since Week 7. Gibbs should run roughshod over them.
- Rhamondre Stevenson could return to muddy New England’s backfield for TreVeyon Henderson. Nevertheless, Henderson has excelled in Stevenson’s absence, and there’s ample meat on the bone for the rookie running back to smash the Bengals, even splitting the workload with his veteran teammate. The Bengals have coughed up the most DraftKings points per game (35.6) and FanDuel points per game (31.3) to running backs this season. They’ve also allowed the most rushing yards per game (198.8), 6.52 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns since Week 7. Henderson should stay hot after tallying 243 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns on 33 rush attempts and six receptions in the previous two weeks.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brissett has led the NFL in passing yards per game (314) since making his first start of the year in Week 6. The veteran signal caller has also tossed 10 touchdowns in those five starts. Brissett should sling it early and often against the NFL’s biggest pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Jacksonville has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) this year. Brissett is projected as the QB7 this week, with the QB1 value score at DraftKings and the QB4 value score at FanDuel.
- According to PFF, 50 quarterbacks have dropped back at least 15 times this year, and Shedeur Sanders has their worst passing grade and the highest turnover-worthy play rate (14.3%) among them. Sanders took two sacks, avoided one with a comical intentional grounding and threw an interception last week. Furthermore, Sanders had zero answers for the blitz. Per PFF, he was blitzed on nine dropbacks, completed zero passes, threw an interception and had three turnover-worthy plays. Sanders isn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback, and the Raiders should embarrass him this weekend.
- The Adonai Mitchell experience has gone terribly in the pro ranks. It got off to a shaky start with three drops on six targets in his debut for the Jets last week. At the same time, drops usually aren’t sticky, and Mitchell had sweet underlying data last week. With little time to acclimate to Gang Green’s offense, he managed to log a 60.6% route participation rate, 17.3-yard aDOT, 53.3% air yards share, 22.2% target share, 0.30 targets per route run and a 40.0% first-read rate in Week 11. If he does a better job of reeling in the football, and Tyrod Taylor makes Gang Green’s passing attack even a tick below average instead of a complete joke, Mitchell can pay off his punt salary.
Week 12 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Adonai Mitchell: 24.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Beyond Mitchell’s interesting underlying data last week, he also has a sweet coverage draw this week. The Ravens are fifth in man coverage rate (35%) and third in single-high coverage (60%) this year. Mitchell has 0.50 TPRR and 2.89 Y/RR on 18 routes against man and 0.34 TPRR and 3.37 Y/RR on 38 against single-high coverage this season. The second-year pro had 0.44 TPRR and 2.60 Y/RR against man and 0.35 TPRR and 3.19 Y/RR on 89 routes against single-high coverage last year. We project Mitchell to tally 36.1 receiving yards against the Ravens.
Jacoby Brissett: 244.5 Passing Yards – Higher
Brissett has tallied 320, 279, 261, 258 and 452 passing yards in his five starts. He’s comfortably exceeded his line of 244.5 passing yards this week in all of his starts. The Jaguars gave Justin Herbert fits last week, but he was behind a makeshift offensive line. Jacksonville has allowed 247.3 passing yards per game this year, and they’re unlikely to hold Brissett under his yardage prop.
Hunter Henry: 42.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Henry has averaged 38.4 receiving yards per game this season, with a median of 39 receiving yards in 11 games this year. Both of those marks are below this week’s line. However, they’re only slightly below those marks, and Henry has a dreamy matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 80.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Finally, per StatHead, seven tight ends have surpassed 42.5 receiving yards against the Bengals this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
