The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals

• JAC -3, O/U 47.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Jacoby Brissett has finished as a QB1 in EVERY start this season (QB7, QB12, QB10, QB10, QB4). Since Week 6, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in passing yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdowns, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in catchable target rate. I know Justin Herbert fell on his face last week, but Jacksonville still doesn’t have a pass defense that strikes fear in my heart. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the second-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, and ranked 16th in CPOE.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Travis Etienne is dealing with a shoulder issue. He has practiced all week on a limited basis and has been listed as questionable. I expect him to play, and our “Are They Playing Tool” gives him a 99% chance to play this week. Last week, in the first three quarters of the game, before an ankle injury sidelined Bhayshul Tuten Etienne played 51% of the snaps, had a 45% route share, and saw an 11.1% target share. He had five red zone rushing attempts compared to Tuten’s three. Etienne finished the game with 19 touches and 73 total yards (two scores) as the RB11 for the week. Etienne should have another strong game this week, even if he’s splitting the work with Tuten. Since Week 7, Arizona has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate.

Bhayshul Tuten (RB)

Bhayshul Tuten is working through an ankle injury that he sustained last week. Last week, he had a big uptick in work. In the first three quarters of last week’s game (before getting injured), he had a 42.9% snap rate, a 20% route share, and zero targets. He had three red zone rushing attempts while Travis Etienne had five. Tuten finished the game with 15 carries and 74 rushing yards (one score) as the RB20 for the week. Tuten has flashed the trademark explosiveness that had everyone drooling over him in the summer. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 12th in missed tackle rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. He is a strong flex that could be an RB2 again this week. Since Week 7, Arizona has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Last week, Michael Wilson was THE WR1 in weekly scoring. I’ll own the L there and say I didn’t see this monster game coming. Nope. Not at all. Not for a player that hadn’t had more than 61 receiving yards or a weekly finish higher than WR40 all year. Wilson had a 31.6% target share, a 60.9% air-yard share, 185 receiving yards, 3.94 yards per route run, four deep targets, and a 40% first-read share. I don’t think Wilson has an encore performance this week, but he can still have a strong game with Marvin Harrison Jr. out again. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Trevor Lawrence has been a decent QB2 this season as the QB17 in fantasy points per game. He should have another nice but not eye-popping game this week. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks 20th in passing yards per game, 29th in yards per attempt, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in catchable target rate. Arizona’s pass defense has taken a step back. Since Week 7, they have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback.

Michael Carter (RB)

Last week, after Emari Demercado left the game, in the second half, Michael Carter played 71.4% of the snaps with two of the team’s three running back carries and a 68.8% route share. He’ll likely work as the passing-down back this week. His workload will probably have a lot to do with the game situation. If the Cardinals are trailing and pass-heavy, Carter will be on the field a ton. If it’s a neutral script or if the Cards are playing with a lead, then Carter could see his snaps drop. Carter finished last week with seven touches and 28 total yards. Carter had a 12.3% target share (seven targets) and 22 receiving yards. The Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest yards per reception to backs. Carter is a viable PPR flex.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Last week, Jakobi Meyers had a 75% route share, a 27.3% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first-read share. He finished with five receptions, 64 receiving yards, and a red zone target. Since Week 7, Arizona has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Meyers is a solid flex play, but we still need to see if Brian Thomas Jr. plays this week. That will impact his market share of targets in Week 12.

Brenton Strange (TE)

In Weeks 1-4, Strange was the TE16 in fantasy points per game with one TE1 outing (TE7). He’ll be back in the lineup this week. In the first four games of the season, Strange had a 66.4% route share, a 16% target share, 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, and a 15.7% first-read share. He didn’t have any red zone targets or downfield looks in those games. Strange is a viable streaming option at tight end this week that could easily produce TE1 numbers. Arizona has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Zonovan Knight (RB)

Last week, after Emari Demercado left the game, in the second half, Zonovan Knight played only 28.6% of the snaps and had a 25% route share. He had only one of three running back carries. This likely had to do with the Cards playing catch-up and Michael Carter being the preferred passing-down back. Flexing Knight this week depends on how you think this game will go. If the Cards play with a lead or keep it close, Knight should be involved on early downs. If the Cards are getting trucked, he is likely on the bench. Last week, Knight finished with nine touches and 45 total yards. Knight has only a 9% missed tackle rate and 1.70 yards after contact per attempt this season. Jacksonville has kept early down rushers in check. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt. I’m sitting Knight in most leagues this week.

Greg Dortch (WR)

Last week, Greg Dortch finished as the WR12 in weekly scoring, securing all six of his targets with 66 receiving yards and a score. It was absolutely fraudulent production, though. Jacoby Brissett‘s truckload of passing attempts helped to prop up Dortch. Dortch had only a 10.5% target share and 14.3% first-read share. Unless you expect Brissett to throw the football another 57 times this week, you shouldn’t be flexing Dortch. It’s also a horrible matchup for Dortch. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Dortch 82.5% slot rate last week).

Parker Washington (WR)

Last week, with Jakobi Meyers more involved in the offense, Parker Washington saw his target share drop to 9.1% and his first-read share dip to 13.3% despite having a 91.7% route share. I have zero interest in flexing Washington this week. Arizona has held slot receivers in check. Since Week 7, they have allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LV -4, O/U 36.5
• Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Quinshon Judkins (RB)

Quinshon Judkins is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19 touches and 76.7 total yards. He is 17th in opportunity share, 18th in weighted opportunities, and 18th in red zone touches among backs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Judkins ranks 24th in missed tackle rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he faces a Raiders run defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Judkins, 56.1% gap). Judkins is a volume-driven RB2 again this week.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

We should not be living in a world where Ashton Jeanty got only six carries against the Cowboys. SIX! CARRIES! Chip Kelly, what in the actual hell are you doing? Jeanty’s fantasy day was somewhat saved by the eight targets that he got, but this is head-scratching, no matter how you slice it. Jeanty’s passing game usage has been nice with at least five targets in each game since Week 9. Among 54 qualifying backs, Jeanty is ninth in missed tackle rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. I would not be shocked if the Raiders came out this week with the onus placed upon running the ball. This would be a good opportunity to feed Jeanty. Since Week 7, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and ranked 15th in missed tackle rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Shedeur Sanders (QB)

I WILL NOT weigh in on Shedeur Sanders and first-team reps and everything else circulating on the internet right now, but I will discuss how he played last week and what we could expect this week. Last week, Sanders struggled with a 25% completion rate, 2.94 yards per attempt, and a 43.8% catchable target rate. There’s nothing good to highlight there. Hopefully, Sanders shows more this week with a full week of practice and a good matchup incoming. Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the tenth-highest passer rating, the third-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in success rate per dropback. Also working in Sanders’ favor is the fact that over that span, the Raiders have had the seventh-lowest pressure rate.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jerry Jeudy has only one weekly finish this season as a top-30 wide receiver while leading the Browns with a 19.7% target share. He has 35.6 receiving yards per game with 1.02 yards per route run and a 26.9% first-read share. Jeudy leads the team with eight red zone targets and 11 deep targets. I wish I could tell you that I had faith in Jeudy blowing up with a good game this week with a nice matchup incoming, but at this point of the season I can’t. Could it happen? Sure. Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Excluding Week 3, Tre Tucker has had a 15.9% target share with 39.7 receiving yards per game, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. In those nine games, he has five red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a Cleveland secondary that has the second-highest single high rate (64.3%). Against single high (excluding Week 3), Tucker has a 15% target per route run rate and 1.25 yards per route run. He’s a middling flex play again this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has ranked 17th in PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Geno Smith is the QB31 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 performances this season. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passing yards per game, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. He’s likely to return low-end QB2 value this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has been tough on quarterbacks, giving up the fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback. During that span, the Browns have also had the second-best pressure rate. Smith will struggle again this week.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

And just like that, Tyler Lockett‘s 2025 fantasy viability went up in smoke. Last week, his route share dipped to 44.9% as the Raiders utilized more 12 personnel. Lockett is droppable in redraft leagues. I didn’t see that coming, but sadly, that’s where we are.

*I can’t trust Harold Fannin Jr. or David Njoku in a lineup this week. Their route shares have been too unpredictable over the last two weeks. Across the last two games, Njoku has had 48.8% and 54.5% route shares, while Fannin saw his dip from 74.4% in the week prior to 48.5% last week. Even if I want to overlook the risk that Shedeur Sanders’ starting brings, I can’t overlook their playing times being a hindrance. Also, this isn’t a great matchup. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.*

BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• PHI -3.5, O/U 47.5
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• Javonte Williams
• CeeDee Lamb

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

Despite his dud performance last week, Smith has been the Eagles’ unquestioned WR1 this season as the WR19 in fantasy points per game. He has been a top-20 wide receiver in weekly scoring in four of his last six games. Smith has a 25.3% target share, 66.5 receiving yards per game, 2.18 yards per route run, and a 31.4% first-read share. Smith is third on the team with six red zone targets and leads Philly with 14 deep targets. In Week 1, Dallas utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps, which I expect them to have a similar defensive game plan in Week 12. Against two high, Smith leads the team with a 23% target per route run rate and 2.41 yards per route run. Smith should have another strong game. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Dallas Goedert is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.8% target share with 39.6 receiving yards per game with 1.50 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Goedert is second on the team with seven red zone targets and has also seen six deep targets. In Week 1, Dallas utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps, which I expect them to have a similar defensive game plan in Week 12. In Week 1, Goedert secured all seven of his targets with 44 scoreless receiving yards (TE14 for the week). He should be busy this week again. Against two high, he is second on the team with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.69 yards per route run. Dallas has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Jake Ferguson is the TE4 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.1% target share with 40 receiving yards per game, 1.35 yards per route run, and a 22.3% first-read share. He leads Dallas with 16 red zone targets and has three deep targets. Expect Ferguson to be a big part of Dallas’s passing game this week with the coverage matchup. Philly utilized two high in Week 1 with 57.1% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Ferguson is tied for the team lead with CeeDee Lamb with a 25% target per route run rate and is second with 1.51 yards per route run. I don’t expect Ferguson to be efficient this week, but he should see a heavy workload. Philly has limited tight ends to the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

A.J. Brown (WR)

A.J. Brown has had a rollercoaster of a season as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Brown has a 25.7% target share with 50.8 receiving yards per game, 1.71 yards per route run, and a 33.5% first-read share. He leads the team with eight red zone targets and is second with 13 deep targets. Brown’s coverage splits have been massive this season, and I expect Dallas to exploit this like they did in Week 1 when Brown was held to one reception for eight yards. I don’t think it’ll be that bad, but I don’t project a ceiling game for Brown in Week 12. In Week 1, Dallas utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps, which I expect them to have a similar defensive game plan in Week 12. Against two high, Brown has seen his target per route run rate drop to 21% (third on the team) with 1.33 yards per route run (fourth on the team). Since Week 7, Dallas has still had issues stopping perimeter wide receivers, allowing the second-most receiving yards and the tenth-most PPR points per target. Maybe Brown takes advantage of the nice corner matchup, but if Dallas does go two-high heavy, it won’t be good for him.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Dak Prescott has been having a wonderful season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying passers, Prescott ranks fourth in passing yards per game, second in passing touchdowns, ninth in passer rating, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and first in catchable target rate. The last time these two teams met, Prescott played extremely well (Week 1), but he had only 188 passing yards, 5.5 yards per attempt, zero passing touchdowns, and a QB29 finish to show for it. I don’t project Prescott to have that poor of a fantasy day this week, but it won’t be easy. Since Week 7, Philly has fielded an elite pass defense, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the tenth-lowest CPOE. During that span, they also have the fifth-best pressure rate (43%).

George Pickens (WR)

George Pickens is on track for a career-best season as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. Pickens has a 21.6% target share with a 37% air-yard share, 90.8 receiving yards per game, 2.56 yards per route run, and a 27.7% first-read share. He’s second on Dallas with 13 red zone targets and first in deep targets. In Week 1, the Eagles limited Pickens to three receptions and 30 scoreless receiving yards, and they could do the same this week. Philly utilized two high in Week 1 with 57.1% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Pickens has seen his numbers fall off with a 16% target per route run rate and only 1.47 yards per route run. Philly has clamped down on perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 7, they have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to outside receivers.

BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -1.5, O/U 39.5
• Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyler Shough (QB)

In his last start, Shough was impressive with 282 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, a 70.4% completion rate, and 10.4 yards per attempt. His deeper metrics were encouraging, with a 59.3% highly accurate throw rate, a 77.8% catchable target rate, and a 7.4% hero throw rate. We’ll see if he can continue to build upon that performance this week. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the second-most yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

In Week 10, Kamara had a 64.2% snap share with a 48.4% route share (10.7% target share), 25 touches, and 115 total yards. He handled both of the team’s red zone carries. It was his highest touch count since Week 2. Kamara is still searching for his second touchdown of the season. His 3.1% explosive run rate and 1.72 yards after contact per attempt are basement-level per-touch metrics, but his 16% missed tackle rate is respectable. Kamara has a nice matchup this week where he could continue to build upon his last game and hopefully get into the endzone. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Chris Olave (WR)

Chris Olave is the WR12 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets among wide receivers. In Tyler Shough‘s two starts, Olave has been the WR44 and WR6 in weekly scoring. In those two games, he has had a 20.8% target share with a 40.1% air-yard share, 80.5 receiving yards per game, 3.50 yards per route run, and a 26.5% first-read share. The Falcons have the highest single high rate in the NFL (69.1%). Since Week 9, against single high, Olave has had a 23.3% target share with 4.04 yards per route run and a 25% first-read share. Olave should eat this week against an Atlanta secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Kirk Cousins will be the Falcons’ starter, possibly for the rest of the season. In his one start this season, he was the QB23 in fantasy, and while the box scores haven’t been great, Cousins hasn’t been bad on a per-dropback standpoint. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 14th in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate, and has the ninth-lowest off-target rate. With zero rushing upside, he’s still only a middling QB2 this week. Since Week 7, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback while ranking 16th in passer rating.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Darnell Mooney should operate as the Falcons’ WR1 until Drake London returns (PCL sprain). Mooney has been a ghost for most of the season, but across the last two games, he has had a 25.9% target share, a 37% air-yard share, and a 28.9% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data. Now, he hasn’t done much with the volume, averaging only 25.5 receiving yards with 0.91 yards per route run, but with this type of volume, Mooney could surprise this week. Since Week 7, New Orleans has ranked 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Kyle Pitts is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with an 18.9% target share, 43.4 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and four deep targets. The Saints have the fifth-highest single high rate (59.2%). Against single-high, Pitts is second on the team with a 24% target per route run rate with 1.53 yards per route run. Pitts should operate as the clear second option in the passing attack this week. The Saints are a middle-of-the-road team against tight ends, ranking 16th in receiving yards per game and 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. Pitts could easily be a TE1 again this week.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

In Tyler Shough‘s two starts, Juwan Johnson has had a 15.1% target share, 61.5 receiving yards per game, 3.00 yards per route run, and an 11.8% first-read share. He was the TE9 and TE3 in fantasy scoring in those weeks, seeing two red-zone targets and a deep target. Johnson should flirt with TE1 value again this week. The Falcons haven’t given up much to tight ends this season because they have faced the second-fewest tight end targets per game, but they have given up the fourth-highest yards per reception to the position.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF