The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• IND -1.5, O/U 47.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor
• Tyler Warren

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 20.9% target share with 51.7 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 24.7% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, Pittman should lead the way for the Indy passing attack against the two high heavy Jags pass defense. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has ranked fifth in two high rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pittman has led the team with a 22.5% target share with 2.10 yards per route run and a 28.1% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Last week, Meyers led the team with a 22.2% target share, 90 receiving yards, 3.10 yards per route run, and a 35.3% first-read share. He had one red zone target and one deep target as the WR11 for the week. Since Week 11, he has had a 22.8% first-read share, 68 receiving yards per game, 2.65 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had four red zone targets and one deep target. Indy has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the 13th-most receiving yards per game to the position.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Since his return, Strange has been the TE4 and TE7 in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, he has had a 15.8% target share with 69 receiving yards per game, 2.94 yards per route run, and a 15.4% first-read share. In those two games, he had one red zone target and four deep targets. His usage is increasing at the perfect time for a boom game this week. Indy has bled out production to tight ends all season, allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Since Week 9, Trevor Lawrence has been the QB12 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in four of his last five games. Since Week 9, among 38 qualifying passers, Lawrence ranks 19th in passing yards per game, 11th in yards per attempt, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, tenth in catchable target rate, and 15th in hero throw rate. Since Week 9, Indy has ranked 16th in yards per attempt and success rate per dropback while allowing the 11th-lowest CPOE and passer rating. This should be considered an average matchup for Lawrence with Sauce Gardner out. Lawrence could be a low-end QB1 again this week.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Daniel Jones has fallen off a ton in recent weeks. Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula, and with his one rushing yard last week, we should consider any rushing upside off the table (for possibly the rest of the season). Since Week 9, Jones has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 18th in catchable target rate, and 18th in hero throw rate. He faces a Jacksonville pass defense that has been feasting on bad quarterback play. Since Week 9, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback, but in that span they faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, and Cam Ward among others. This is best viewed as an average matchup for Jones, but expecting more than QB2 production from Jones right now is asking too much.

Alec Pierce (WR)

This doesn’t line up well as another strong Alec Pierce week. Pierce has been the Colts’ field-stretching single-high destroyer all season. Since Week 10, the Jags have allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate when defending downfield passing. Also, since Week 10, they have utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pierce has had an 11.3% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Working in Pierce’s favor is the fact that the Jags have been horrible against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This could help Pierce pop off with a splash play or two, but I don’t believe this is a ceiling game for Pierce.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Travis Etienne is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.2 touches and 84.7 total yards. Among backs, he ranks 13th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and fourth in red zone touches. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in explosive run rate and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne has been a boring volume play pretty much the entire season, with his last 100-yard rushing game coming in Week 4, which feels like a lifetime ago. His passing game usage hasn’t done much to help his ceiling and floor this season, as he has had more than four receptions or 30 receiving yards only once. Eitenne will need a touchdown and all the volume he can handle this week to walk away with a strong fantasy day. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Josh Downs (WR)

Josh Downs has had a disappointing season, and I don’t see it turning around this week. He is the WR53 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t hit double-digit PPR points since Week 9. Downs has a 16.7% target share with 33.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with ten red zone targets while kicking in five deep targets. Jourdan Lewis‘s return last week means Downs is headed toward another quiet game. In slot coverage this season, Lewis has allowed only one touchdown and a 61.7 passer rating in his coverage. Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Brian Thomas Jr. returned to the huddle last week with a 78.1% route share, an 11.1% target share, 28 receiving yards, and a 17.6% first-read share (second on the team). He had a 16.0 aDOT, and one of his three targets was downfield. Could Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. connect on a deep heave this week? Sure, but I don’t want to bet on it this week. This season, Indy has allowed the 13th-lowest deep completion rate, the tenth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing, and the third-fewest deep passing touchdowns (tied).

Parker Washington (WR)

Parker Washington sustained a hip injury last week. He opened this week with a DNP. I’ll update his status on Friday once we know more from his practice participation this week.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -2, O/U 42
• Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Jefferson (WR)

In J.J. McCarthy‘s six starts, Justin Jefferson has finished as a top-24 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR18, WR20. In that sample, he has had a 30.8% target share with 53 receiving yards per game, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 38% first-read share. In those six games, he has had seven red zone targets and eight deep targets. Since Week 11, Washington has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (64.8%). With McCarthy against two high, Jefferson has still led the team with a 25.6% target share and 28% first-read share. If McCarthy can show a pulse this week (I know it’s a big IF), Jefferson could have a big bounce-back game. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel is the WR15 in fantasy points per game with six deep targets and ten red zone targets this season. Across the last two games, he has finished as the WR5 and WR32 in weekly scoring. This week’s matchup with Minnesota leans in his direction as the focal point for the passing offense along with Zach Ertz. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high, Samuel has had a 26.4% target share with 2.54 yards per route run and a 30.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz is the TE13 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season (TE2, TE5, TE3). Among tight ends, he ranks third in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high, Ertz has a 22.1% target share with 1.82 yards per route run and a 25% first-read share. Ertz is a strong streaming option this week. Minnesota ranks 16th in receiving yards per game and has given up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

If there was ever a week for JJ McCarthy to flash the upside and potential that I think he still has, this is it. Can he do it? We shall see. It’s a definite leap of faith when the product on the field to this point has been worrisome. In his six starts, McCarthy has only one QB1 finish. Among 47 qualifying passers, he is 43rd in yards per attempt, 45th in highly accurate throw rate, 46th in catchable target rate, and second in hero throw rate. The Commanders’ pass defense looked improved last week, but I still don’t think this is a good pass defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt, the highest CPOE, and have ranked dead last in pressure rate.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Since Week 11, Chris Rodgriguez has been Washington’s lead back with seven of 11 running back red zone rushing attempts. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 63 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a solid touchdown-dependent flex this week. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and logged the 11th-lowest stuff rate.

Jordan Addison (WR)

In his four games with JJ McCarthy under center, Jordan Addison has only one top-36 finish in weekly scoring (WR31). In those four games, Addison has had a 17.8% target share with 25.8 receiving yards per game, 0.84 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In that sample, he has two red zone targets and seven deep targets. Since Week 11, Washington has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (64.8%). With McCarthy against two high, Addison has had a 20.7% target share and a 22.9% first-read share. Addison is a dart throw flex this week with a good matchup. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

In JJ McCarthy’s six starts, TJ Hockensen hasn’t finished higher than TE19 in weekly scoring. In those six games, he has had a 13.8% target share with 17.3 receiving yards per game, 0.75 yards per route run, and a 13% first-read share with one red zone target. Hockenson is a low-end streaming option this week. Washington has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

Jayden Daniels returned to practice this week. He is a non-contact participant and will be reevaluated later in the week. It’s possible that he could return this week. I’ll update this situation on Friday.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Aaron Jones left last week’s game with a shoulder injury. He opened this week with a limited practice. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Jordan Mason (RB)

Aaron Jones is dealing with a shoulder injury. He left last week’s game with a shoulder injury. Jones opened this week’s practice schedule with a limited session. If Jones misses this week, Mason would be the lead back. I’ll update this situation on Friday.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Last week, Terry McLaurin LOUDLY announced his return to the starting lineup for Washington with a WR8 finish while seeing a 28% target share with a 36.1% air-yard share, 96 receiving yards (3.00 yards per route run), and a 27.5% first-read share. He had five red zone targets and two deep targets. I don’t think McLaurin stays in the flames this week. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high this season, McLaurin has had a 14.3% target share with 1.76 yards per route run and a 15.8% first-read share. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• MIA -2.5, O/U 41.5
• Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• De’Von Achane
• Jaylen Waddle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyrod Taylor (QB)

Last week, Tyrod Taylor managed his second QB1 performance of the season as the QB7 for the week. In his three starts this season, he has averaged seven rushing attempts and 36 rushing yards (one rushing touchdown). Among 47 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in catchable target rate. Taylor should be able to exploit a Miami pass defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the 12th-most passing yards per game.

Breece Hall (RB)

Breece Hall is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.1 touches and 79.8 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate and 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Hall might not have a ceiling week, but he should be able to turn in serviceable RB2 numbers this week. Since Week 9, Miami has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Hall 69.5% zone), and ranked 18th in explosive run rate.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Last week, Adonai Mitchell finally had a boom game which you could see coming from a mile away with the market share and the matchup that he had last week. It was wonderful to still see it come to fruition. Last week, Mitchell was the WR5 in fantasy with a 36.4% target share, a 59.8% air-yard share, 102 receiving yards (2.83 yards per route run), and a 50% first-read share. He had two red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 11, Mitchell has had a 28.4% target share, a 61.4% air-yard share, and a 41.8% first-read share with four red zone targets and seven deep targets. He has been operating as the team’s clear WR1. He could easily continue the hot streak this week against a Miami secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

John Metchie (WR)

Since Week 11, John Metchie has finished as a top-20 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR18, WR11). Since Week 11, Metchie has had a 20.5% target share with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has two red zone targets and zero deep targets. He could easily be a strong flex play again this week operating as New York’s WR2 against a Miami secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Darren Waller (TE)

Last week, Darren Waller returned to the lineup with a 65.5% route share, a 13% target share, 47 receiving yards, 2.47 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. He had one red zone target and two deep targets. Overall, Waller has a 17% target per route run rate with 1.86 yards per route run and a 12.9% first-read share. In his five games played, he has five red zone targets and three deep targets. Waller is a streaming option this week, but don’t expect a massive stat line from him. The Jets have allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.

Mason Taylor (TE)

Mason Taylor has seen his role in the passing game dwindle in recent weeks. He hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 8. That was also the last game that he had a red zone target. Mason Taylor is the TE31 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season. Since Week 11, he has had a 14.8% target share with 24 receiving yards per game, 1.06 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share. Taylor is on the streaming radar this week, though. The matchup is wonderful. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tua Tagovailoa has been a middling QB2 for most of the season, with the upside for a low-end QB1 performance if everything breaks right. I don’t think things will move in his favor for him to return to top 12 status this week. Among 47 qualifying passers, Tagovailoa ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 15th in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in catchable target rate and hero throw rate. Since Week 9, the Jets have been an average to above-average pass defense, depending on the week. During that span, they have ranked 19th in yards per attempt while holding offenses to the 13th-lowest adjusted completion rate and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns (tied). Tagovailoa likely logs another mid-to-low-end QB2 performance in Week 14.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -8.5, O/U 42.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Chris Olave

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Baker Mayfield has seen a dip in his production in recent weeks. Overall, he is the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 7, he has finished as the QB7 in weekly scoring twice and as the QB18 or lower four times. Since Week 7, among 35 qualifying passers, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in catchable target rate. Mayfield could be a QB1 this week as the Saints’ pass defense has been abysmal. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating and success rate per dropback, and the third-highest CPOE.

Tyler Shough (QB)

Tyler Shough has finished as the QB12 in weekly scoring in two of his last three games. Since Week 10, among 35 qualifying passers, Shough has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in catchable target rate, and 18th in hero throw rate. He has been showing some growth. He could flirt with QB1 production again this week. Since Week 9, the Bucs’ pass defense has been pitiful, giving up the most passing yards per game, the second-most yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the second-highest success rate per dropback.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Last week, Bucky Irving returned and immediately cemented himself as the clear lead back again. He played 54.4% of the snaps with a 24.2% route share, 17 of 21 running back carries, and all three of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. Irving finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB15 for the week. I expect his snap count to rise further this week with some more passing game involvement. Last week, Irving didn’t break any explosive runs and had only 1.59 yards after contact per attempt, but he did have a 41% missed tackle rate (WOW!), so I expect his efficiency numbers to climb moving forward. Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Since Week 10, with Tyler Shough under center, Johnson has had a 17.1% target share with 59 receiving yards per game, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share as the TE5 in fantasy points per game. In those three games, he has only one red zone target and one deep target. Johnson is a solid TE1 again this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends, but they have given up the seventh-most receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Devaughn Vele (WR)

Since Week 12, Devaughn Vele has had an 18.1% target share with 65 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. In those two games, Vele had two red zone targets and two deep targets. Last week, he was the WR7 in weekly scoring, securing all eight of his targets with 93 receiving yards and a score. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (63.1%). Since Week 12, against single high, Vele has been a distant third in the target pecking order against single high with a 17.9% target share, 1.29 yards per route run, and an 11.1% first-read share. Vele is a decent flex play this week, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week’s stat line in Week 14. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Cade Otton is the TE26 in fantasy points per game and on the fringe of streaming status this week. Otton has a 15.2% target share with 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 14.4% first-read share. He has only three red zone targets and a deep target this season. New Orleans is 15th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and has given up the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position. With the Bucs’ other receiving weapons getting healthier by the week, Otton is fading into the background. I would look to other streaming options this week, but if you’re forced to plug him in a deep league for Week 14, I get it.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Alvin Kamara didn’t practice last week (knee), but we need to see what his status is for Week 14 before projecting this backfield. He opened this week with another DNP. I’ll update Kamara’s status on Friday.

Devin Neal (RB)

I’ll update Devin Neal‘s outlook on Friday once we know more about Alvin Kamara‘s Week 14 status.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

The Buccaneers’ wide receiver room is in flux. Mike Evans could return this week, and Chris Godwin is back in the mix. I’ll update Emeka Egbuka‘s outlook on Friday because it could change wildly if Evans is back.

Chris Godwin (WR)

I’ll update Chris Godwin‘s status on Friday once we know more about Mike Evans‘ availability for Week 14. Godwin could be fighting Emeka Egbuka for WR1 or WR2 status on the team this week, depending upon Evans’ outlook.

Mike Evans (WR)

Mike Evans returned to practice this week. With his injury, since he’s been medically cleared, I expect him to play this week, but we need to see if that will be the case. His injury isn’t like a knee or hammy in that if he is medically cleared and his conditioning is good, he should return to his usual role, but we need to see how the week plays out.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC