The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -5.5, O/U 53
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir is the only fantasy viable wide receiver to discuss with the Bills, right now. Last week, only Shakir and Gabe Davis crossed the 50% route share mark. If you were to tell me that Shakir was the only Bills’ wide receiver to surpass that line this week, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Shakir is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with a 20.5% target share with 47.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 23.9% first-read share. Shakir leads the team with ten red zone targets while also kicking in five deep targets. Shakir offers solid flex appeal against a Bengals team that will force Buffalo to pass more than they probably want to. Since Week 9, Cincy has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Dalton Kincaid has been dealing with a knee issue and a hamstring injury. He has practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Kincaid is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 14.8% target share, five red zone targets, four deep targets, and a 17.4% first-read share. Kincaid has been mashing on a per-route basis with 3.37 yards per route run, but the issue is that he has only a 47% route share. I’d love to tell you that I LOVE HIM this week versus the Bengals, who have bled out production to tight ends all year and are easily the best matchup in the NFL for the position, but I have my worries. Kincaid has been a limited snap player all season, and in Weeks 8-9, he had only 32% and 46.7% route shares. In those two games, he had only three and six targets. It’s tough to expect him to be ridiculously efficient and produce on limited volume when he is clearly not 100%. Could he pay off for fantasy this week? Sure. Are there a ton of concerns around his playing, efficiency, and the Bills’ game plan this week? Oh, hell yes. If Buffalo wants to just lean on their run game, they can against Cincy. That would crush the Bills’ passing volume and Kincaid’s involvement. Playing him is a risk this week. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards per game, the highest yards per reception, and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Joe Burrow (QB)

In his first game back, Burrow finished as the QB11 for the week. The high-end moments were there as Burrow had an 8.7% hero throw rate, while he also had spots where the rust was evident. Burrow also had only a 56.5% highly accurate throw rate and a 67.4% catchable target rate. Burrow will round back into form with more snaps in the coming weeks. This week will be a good litmus test. The Bills’ pass defense has been one of the best in the league for the last few weeks. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the second-lowest CPOE. Burrow could still be a QB1 this week, but he’ll need to raise the bar of his play-to-play consistency quickly.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Tee Higgins has cleared the concussion protocol and will be back this week. Higgins is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 16.5% target share, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 23.2% first-read share. Higgins is second on the team with nine red zone targets and 14 deep targets. The Bills have the sixth-highest rate of two high (55.3%) this season. Against two high, Higgins has seen his numbers dwindle with a 13.8% target share, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 20.9% first-read share. Higgins could pay off with a touchdown, but I don’t think this is a ceiling game for him. Since Week 9, Buffalo has limited perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• DEN -7.5, O/U 40.5
• Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

RJ Harvey (RB)

Since Week 11, RJ Harvey has averaged 53.1% of the snaps with a 28.1% route share and an 8.4% target share. In those two games, he has averaged 15 touches and 58 total yards as the RB37 and RB2 in weekly scoring. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 40th in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate. Harvey should have another solid game this week against a middle-of-the-road Raiders run defense. Since Week 9, Las Vegas has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game, 18th in rushing success rate, and has given up the sixth-highest missed tackle rate.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Courtland Sutton is the WR24 in fantasy points per game with 14 deep targets and ten red zone targets. He had a nice bounce-back game last week as the WR16, which was his first top 24 finish in weekly scoring since Week 7. This week, he faces a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 9, has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (63.8%). Since Week 7, against single high, Sutton has ranked second on the team with a 19.1% target share, second in yards per route run with 2.60, and second in first-read share with 22.1%. Sutton should have another strong game against a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Troy Franklin (WR)

Troy Franklin continues to hum along as the WR35 in fantasy points per game while ranking second in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. The last time he faced this pass defense, he was the WR23 for the week, securing five of his nine targets with 40 receiving yards and a score. This week, he faces a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 9, has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (63.8%). Since Week 7, against single high, Franklin has had a team-leading 27% target share and 33.8% first-read share with 2.13 yards per route run. He should lead the way for Denver’s passing attack this week. Since Week 9, the Raiders’ secondary has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Bo Nix (QB)

Bo Nix might be the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but he has been extremely volatile this season and hasn’t been a QB1 in weekly scoring since Week 8. Among 47 qualifying passers, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. He struggled against this pass defense in Week 10 with only 150 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and 5.4 yards per attempt as the QB25 for the week. We’ll see if he can fare better the second time around, but Nix should be viewed as a QB2 this week. Since Week 9, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the eighth-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in passer rating.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

The last time Geno Smith faced this pass defense, he was the QB27 for the week with 143 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and 5.5 yards per attempt. I don’t see Smith faring much better this time around. I have zero interest in starting him in fantasy in Week 14. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Ashton Jeanty is the RB11 in fantasy points per game with 18.7 touches and 73.8 total yards per game. His offensive line has crushed his rushing output, but his passing game usage has been saving him weekly. Jeanty has eight targets in each of his last three games. Since Week 9, he has had an 18.3% target share with 33 receiving yards per game, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 12.8% first-read share. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty will have to lean on volume and his receiving prowess again this week. Since Week 9, Denver has remained a nasty run defense, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Since Week 10, Tucker has been the WR56 in fantasy points per game with a 17.6% target share with 30.8 receiving yards per game, 0.79 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. In those four games without Jakobi Meyers, he has had three red zone targets and eight deep targets. Sit Tucker this week. Since Week 9, Denver has held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -6.5, O/U 44.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Love (QB)

Jordan Love is coming off his fourth QB1 outing of the season. Last week, he finished with 234 passing yards and four passing scores as the QB2 for the week against Detroit. Overall, Love is the QB17 in fantasy points per game. Among 42 qualifying passers, Love ranks seventh in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdowns (tied), 12th in catchable target rate, and fifth in hero throw rate. Last week, Chicago got Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson back, but I still view this as a middle-of-the-road pass defense at best. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, and the ninth-highest CPOE. Love could be a QB1 again this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Last week, the Bears ran the ball down the Eagles’ throats with success and hid their young quarterback. I could see Ben Johnson deploying a similar attack plan this week. Last week, Swift played 52.9% of the snaps with a 47.5% route share. He had one of five red zone rushing attempts and finished with 19 touches and 138 total yards. Overall, he his the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Among 55 qualifying backs, Swift ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 16th in missed tackle rate. Since Week 9, Green Bay’s run defense has displayed some give, ranking 15th in explosive run rate while allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Kyle Monangai (RB)

Last week, Ben Johnson leaned on the ground game to help protect Caleb Williams. I think Chicago should and will deploy a similar attack plan against Green Bay. Last week, Monangai finished with 22 carries and 130 rushing yards as the RB8 for the week. He had four of five running back red zone rushing attempts while playing 44.7% of the snaps with a 22.5% route share (zero targets). Among 55 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in explosive run rate. Since Week 9, Green Bay’s run defense has displayed some give, ranking 15th in explosive run rate while allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Christian Watson (WR)

Since Week 11, Christian Watson has taken off as Green Bay’s clear WR1 and the WR12 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, Watson has led the team with an 82.4% route share, a 28.2% target share, 58.3 receiving yards per game, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 36% first-read share. Since Week 6, Chicago has utilized single high at the 12th-highest rate (53.8%). Since Week 10, against single high, Watson has had a 25.4% target share with 2.04 yards per route run and a 31.6% first-read share. Watson should crush again this week. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Caleb Williams continues to beat up on bad defenses and struggle against good ones. He has finished as the QB20 or lower in weekly scoring in six games this season. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, 39th in catchable target rate, and 28th in hero throw rate. Williams looks like he’s headed for another “down” week. Since Week 9, Green Bay has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the 14th-lowest success rate per dropback.

DJ Moore (WR)

DJ Moore has had a quiet season as the WR43 in fantasy points per game, with only two top 24 weekly finishes. In the last four games, he has finished as the WR68 in weekly scoring or lower three times. Moore has a 14.9% target share with 41.8 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 16.9% first-read share. He has seven red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Moore is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Luther Burden (WR)

Since Week 10, Luther Burden has had a 51.6% route share, a 13.7% target share with 39.3 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a  19.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has zero high-leverage usage with no red zone or deep targets. With Rome Odunze out this week, I expect Burden to shift outside opposite DJ Moore as Olamide Zaccheaus becomes the full-time starting slot. Burden will have a tough assignment on the perimeter this week. Since Week 9, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Since Week 11, Romeo Doubs has been the WR44 in fantasy points per game with a 19.2% target share, 32 receiving yards per game, 1.52 yards per route run, and an 18% first-read share. I those three games, he has had four red zone targets and zero deep targets. Since Week 6, Chicago has utilized single high at the 12th-highest rate (53.8%). Since Week 10, against single high, Doubs has had a 12.7% target share, 0.38 yards per route run, and a 15.8% first-read share. The matchup is good for Doubs this week, but the coverage matchup could limit his volume. He’s a low-end flex this week. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Colston Loveland (TE)

Since Week 10, Loveland has had one TE1 weekly finish (TE3). During his last four games, Loveland has had a 54.8% route share with a 13.7% target share, 43 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Green Bay has held tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game. Loveland is a streaming option best left on the bench this week.

*I can’t trust any Packers wide receiver this week, not names Christian Watson and possibly Romeo Doubs. Jayden Reed will be back, and it could be a mess between Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Matthew Golden for playing time/routes. Those three wide receivers could cannibalize each other.*

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

• LAR -8, O/U 47.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Matthew Stafford
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Jacoby Brissett has been a QB1 in EVERY START he has made in 2025. I know it’s crazy, but it’s absolutely true. Since Week 6, Brissett has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game. During that span, he has ranked first in passing yards per game, fifth in passing touchdowns (tied), 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in hero throw rate. This week, he’ll have a tough test. Since Week 9, the Rams have ranked 18th in success rate per dropback while also holding passing offenses to the 13th-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest CPOE, and forcing the most interceptions. Brissett has displayed the ability to overcome tough matchups, so I won’t shy away from him this week.

Michael Wilson (WR)

With Marvin Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch out this week, the Cardinals’ passing attack will again be all the Michael Wilson and Trey McBride that the Rams can handle. In Weeks 11-12, when Wilson was living in a similar situation, he finished as the WR1 and WR9 in weekly scoring, commanding a 30.8% target share with a 53.9% air-yard share, 151.5 receiving yards per game, 3.16 yards per route run, and a 38.6% first-read share. In those two games, he had five deep targets and two red zone targets. Wilson is upgraded to a STRONG WR2 this week. This week, Wilson has an average to below-average matchup depending upon how you look at it. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and ranked 18th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Blake Corum (RB)

Since Week 7, Blake Corum has averaged ten carries and 44.3 rushing yards. He’s a strong flex this week. Corum is in the same area code as Tyler Allgeier weekly, as the 1B in a backfield that could easily work out as a nice fantasy play if he gets in the end zone. Since Week 7, Corum has had 12 red zone carries. He’s finally back to the form that he displayed early in his college career. Among 55 qualifying backs, Corum ranks 12th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. Corum could rip a big run or two this week and fall into the end zone. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest explosive run rate.

Michael Carter (RB)

It’s looking unlikely that we will see Trey Benson again this season. He’s out this week, and so is Emari Demercado. The Cardinals will lean on the tandem of Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter again this week. Carter is the passing-down back. Since Week 12, he has averaged nine touches and 61 total yards with a 53.5% snap rate, only ten of 31 running back carries, a 42.3% route share, and an 8.9% target share. Carter will likely lead the backfield in snaps again this week as the Cardinals will likely be trailing for most of this game. The Rams have allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception and the 14th-most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to running backs. Carter is a viable flex this week in PPR formats.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Zonovan Knight (RB)

It’s looking unlikely that we will see Trey Benson again this season. He’s out this week, and so is Emari Demercado. The Cardinals will lean on the tandem of Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter again this week. Knight is the early down back that can easily get game-scripted out. Since Week 12, Knight has averaged 14 touches and 65 total yards with a 46.7% snap share. In the last two games, he has 21 of 31 running back carries but only a 26% route share despite having an 8.9% target share. Since Week 12, he has led the backfield with two red zone rushing attempts (Carter, one). This isn’t a great matchup for Knight this week. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the ninth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game. He’ll need a touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week.

DAL vs. DET | PIT vs. BAL | SEA vs. ATL | TEN vs. CLE | IND vs. JAC | WAS vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | NO vs. TB | CIN vs. BUF | DEN vs. LV | CHI vs. GB | LAR vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | PHI vs. LAC