The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• JAC -5.5, O/U 48.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trevor Lawrence
• Travis Etienne Jr.
• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Jakobi Meyers had a quiet Week 16 against Denver, but he didn’t see the Patrick Surtain shadow. That honor fell to Brian Thomas Jr. Meyers still secured only four of his eight targets for 45 scoreless yards. Since Week 11, Meyers has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 22.5% target share, 59.8 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 28.6% first-read share. He has been their clear WR1 since becoming a full-time player. In his last six games, Meyers has had seven red zone targets and two deep targets. Meyers should have a wonderful bounce-back game this week. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has been the WR42 in fantasy points per game with two top 24 weekly finishes (WR23, WR15). The last time he faced this secondary, he secured three of his six targets for 87 scoreless receiving yards as the WR23 for the week. Since Week 13, Thomas has had a 14.3% target share with 49.8 receiving yards per game, a 19.7 aDOT, 1.66 yards per route run, and a 22% first-read share. Thomas Jr. has been their field stretcher since returning with 44.4% of his target volume coming via downfield looks. Thomas Jr. could hit big this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-highest deep completion rate and sixth-most deep passing yards per game. This secondary has also struggled to defend perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Philip Rivers (QB)

Last week, old man Rivers was slinging it as the QB13 for the week. Last week, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fifth in aDOT, tenth in deep ball rate, and 18th in hero throw rate. It was an impressive showing for Rivers, especially compared to his first start. Rivers looked more mobile in the pocket and had better zip on his passes. He’ll have a tougher challenge this week against a Jaguars’ pass defense that, since Week 12, has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback. Rivers should still be able to provide solid QB2 value this week.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

In his two games with Philip Rivers, Pittman has had a 15.9% target share (third on the team) with 29 receiving yards per game, 0.95 yards per route run, and a 16.3% first-read share (third on the team). He hasn’t seen a red zone target, but has gotten two deep targets. Pittman could have a bounce-back game this week, but with his prior usage with Rivers, he’s only a middling flex play this week. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Alec Pierce‘s downfield role provided again last week as Pierce finished as the WR3 for the week. In two games, with Philip Rivers, he has had only a 7.9% target share and 10.2% first-read share, but he has secured all five of his targets with a 19.0 aDOT, 51 receiving yards per game, and 1.73 yards per route run. In the last two games, he has had two deep targets and two red zone targets. Pierce is a desperation flex only, but he could pay off again this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has ranked 15th in deep ball completion rate and given up the tenth-most deep passing yards per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Josh Downs (WR)

With Philip Rivers, Indy has increased its usage of 11 personnel as Downs has seen an 83.3% route share while soaking up a 22.2% target share and 26.5% first-read share while producing 39 receiving yards per game and 1.42 yards per route run. In those two games, Downs has had one touchdown, one red zone target, and three deep targets. Downs is a low-end flex play this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 13, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Parker Washington (WR)

Last week, Parker Washington exploded with a huge game, but I don’t want to point chase. In his two previous games, with Jakobi Meyers on the team and Brian Thomas Jr. back, he had only a 45.6% route share, a 10.2% target share, and 39.5 receiving yards per game. Washington’s big game, I believe, was more of a result of Trevor Lawrence feeding him the ball and staying away from Denver’s talented outside corners. Since Kenny Moore‘s return in Week 7, Indy has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Sit Washington.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Since Week 12, Brenton Strange has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with a 16% target share, 46 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 15.4% first-read share. In those five games, Strange has had eight red zone targets, two scores, and four deep targets. Strange could have a quieter game this week. Since Week 10, Indy has held tight ends to the 12th-fewest yards per target and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Tyler Warren (TE)

In his two games with Philip Rivers, Tyler Warren has had a 23.8% target share, 24.5 receiving yards per game, 0.84 yards per route run, and a team-leading 28.6% first-read share. He has seen only one red zone target and zero deep targets. He has finished as the TE30 and TE22 in weekly scoring. Warren is only a low-end streaming option at tight end this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -7, O/U 53.5
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride
• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

All good things must come to an end. Last week, Jacoby Brissett broke his legendary streak of QB1 weekly finishes as the QB19 for the week. Pour one out for the king. Brissett has been amazing in fantasy this season. Since Week 6, among 40 qualifying passers, Brissett has ranked first in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in catchable target rate. Brissett could easily return to the QB1 ranks this week. Since Week 12, Cincy has given up the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, the second-most yards per attempt, and the eighth-most passing yards per game.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Carter (RB)

Michael Carter is a flex/RB2 play this week. Last week, he played 53.6% of the snaps with a 51.5% route share, finishing with 11 carries and 65 total yards. Over the last two games, he has averaged 14.5 touches and 70 total yards. Carter got most of the backfield work last week, but Emari Demercado was also involved, and Corey Kiner had both of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. I mention it to highlight that Carter isn’t the safest play this week, as Arizona will get other backs involved. Carter hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis, with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.59 yards after contact per attempt. Luckily for Carter, that might not matter against Cincy’s horrible run defense. If Carter gets the volume, he should produce nicely. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Luckily for Michael Wilson, it looks like DJ Turner isn’t shadowing anymore. Turner hasn’t shadowed since Week 11, as he didn’t follow Stefon Diggs or Jaylen Waddle in recent games. This significantly improves Wilson’s outlook for this week, as Turner has been one of the best shadow corners in the league in 2025. Last week, with Marvin Harrison Jr. back, Arizona’s passing offense went off the rails as Elijah Higgins was thrust into the mix and Michael Wilson saw only a 9.7% target share and a 15.8% first-read share. I’m hoping that was a one-game outlier rather than a sign of more weird things to come for Week 17. Since Week 11, Wilson has had a 26.3% target share, 97.8 receiving yards per game, 2.51 yards per route run, and a 36.2% first-read share as the WR3 in fantasy points per game. Wilson has a tougher matchup this week, but if his usage and volume bounce back, he can overcome it. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Mike Gesicki (TE)

Noah Fant is dealing with an ankle injury and missed last week’s game. If he is active, he may be limited this week. Last week, Gesicki had a 66.7% route share, a 12.1% target share, 35 receiving yards, 1.46 yards per route run, and an 18.2% first-read share. In his 11 games played this season, Gesicki has had seven red zone targets and three deep targets. Gesicki could easily post TE1 numbers this week and is a strong streaming candidate at tight end. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Elijah Higgins (TE)

Last week, Elijah Higgins was the WR2 for Arizona with a 75.8% route share, a 22.6% target share, 91 receiving yards, 3.64 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. In Weeks 14-15, Higgins had route shares of 62% and 62.8%, so this isn’t a one-off sample of Higgins running more routes, but the heavier integration into the game plan was a change. Higgins is a deep league streaming option this week at tight end. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the highest yards per target to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Last week, in his first game back from a heel injury, Marvin Harrison Jr. had only a 54.5% route share, a 9.7% target share, and a 15.8% first-read share. The Cards stated they were easing Harrison Jr. back in last week, but I doubt just one more week will make a massive difference in his heel health. Harrison Jr. stated previously that the injury was something he’d likely have to deal with for the rest of the season. With his usage and role in the offense up in the air, Harrison Jr. is only a middling flex play this week with a bad matchup. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

• SEA -7, O/U 42.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Sam Darnold is the QB19 in fantasy points per game with seven QB1 outings this season. Among 45 qualifying passers, Darnold has been exemplary, ranking seventh in passing yards per game, first in yards per attempt, second in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in hero throw rate. Darnold should flirt with QB1 production this week. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest CPOE.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Since Week 10, Kenneth Walker has been the RB25 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.1 touches and 81 total yards. Among 60 qualifying backs, Walker ranks second in explosive run rate and third in missed tackle rate. This week, he’s a strong RB2 again with big play potential for more. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, and the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Zach Charbonnet is a solid flex this week that could easily be an RB2 if he gets into the end zone. Since Week 10, Charbonnet has averaged 11 touches and 52.5 total yards as the RB34 in fantasy points per game. Among 60 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 11th in missed tackle rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, and the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 23.9% target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, 61.6 receiving yards per game, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 29.1% first-read share. McMillan leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 19 deep targets. McMillan’s weekly volatility has been a fallout of Bryce Young‘s highs and lows this season. Bryce Young will need to surprise in a tough matchup for McMillan to have a strong game. Since Week 12, Seattle has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers while also allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

After two strong games back-to-back, Shaheed faceplanted last week with one target and zero receptions. Yes, he did score on a 58-yard punt return and had 31 rushing yards, but that’s flukey production and not something that anyone should be chasing. Since Week 14, Shaheed has had a 13% target share with 47 receiving yards per game, 1.88 yards per route run, and an 18% first-read share. In those three games, he has had one red zone target and three deep targets. Shaheed could pop off with a solid performance this week, and it wouldn’t surprise me. He’s a viable flex play this week. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

AJ Barner (TE)

AJ Barner is the TE20 in fantasy points per game with five TE1 outings this season. Barner has a 13.6% target share with 30.8 receiving yards per game, 1.51 yards per route run, and an 11.9% first-read share. Barner is second on the team with 11 red zone targets while also kicking in three deep targets. Barner is a viable streaming option at tight end again this week. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the seventh-most yards per target to tight ends while also holding the position to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

Bryce Young is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 weekly scoring outings this season. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 35th in yards per attempt, 14th in CPOE, 25th in catchable, and tenth in hero throw rate. Young is a low-end QB2 this week with a horrible matchup. Seattle still has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 12, Seattle has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game, the lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Since Week 13, Rico Dowdle has averaged 16.6 touches and 51 total yards as the lead back for the Carolina Panthers. Chuba Hubbard has also factored in, but Dowdle has been the main source of volume in this backfield. Among 60 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 24th in missed tackle rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a volume-driven low-end flex this week. Seattle’s run defense remains elite. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• NYG -1.5, O/U 41.5
• New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Ashton Jeanty

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Across his last three full games, Tracy has averaged 19.6 touches and 101.6 total yards with weekly scoring finishes as RB12, RB5, and RB32. Tracy is a rock-solid RB2 this week that could easily flirt with 20 touches this week. Among 48 qualifying backs, Tracy ranks 38th in missed tackle rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, the Raiders have allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jaxson Dart (QB)

I understand that the Giants don’t want Jaxson Dart to get hurt in the final weeks of a lost season. Ok, I get that, but last week was a ridiculous showing. New York had a 39.6% passing rate and ran a total of nine passing plays in the first half. If you don’t want Dart to throw the ball or take unnecessary hits, BENCH HIM. Running the ball an obnoxious amount and not letting your quarterback actually play is pure foolishness. Dart finished with 13 passing attempts, 33 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, an interception, and only seven rushing yards (two rushing attempts). And people wonder why bad teams stay bad. I don’t. I could give you all of Dart’s season-long stats and per-game numbers, and they are nothing more than false window dressing if the Giants run this sham of an operation in Week 17. If the Giants let Dart do his thing this week (I have zero confidence that they will), then he could easily be a high-end QB1 this week. Since Week 12, Las Vegas has allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, and the third-highest success rate per dropback.

Geno Smith (QB)

Last week, Geno Smith had a surprisingly efficient outing against a stout Houston pass defense. He finished as the QB20 for the week with 201 passing yards while completing 69.6% of his passes with 8.7 yards per attempt. Smith just lost his WR1 in Brock Bowers for the rest of the season, which will definitely hurt his ceiling, but he could easily have a solid QB2 performance again this week. Since Week 12, the Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the 11th-highest success rate per dropback, and the highest CPOE.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR19 in fantasy points per game. With Jaxson Dart under center, Robinson has had a 26.5% target share, 48.6 receiving yards per game, 1.47 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. In those ten games, Robinson has had seven red zone targets and ten red zone looks. Robinson’s ceiling and floor will be impacted by the Giants gameplan this week. If they skew massively run-centric again, Robinson’s fantasy value could get tanked, but if they split the middle, he is a solid flex play with WR2 upside. Since Week 12, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Darius Slayton (WR)

With Jaxson Dart under center, Slayton has had an 18% target share with 44.3 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In those ten games, Slayton has been the Giants’ field stretcher with 12 deep targets and a 15.0 aDOT. Slayton could pop with a nice stat line this week. Since Week 10, Las Vegas has allowed the 12th-highest completion rate and the 11th-highest passer rating to deep passing.

Jack Bech (WR)

Since Week 14, Jack Bech has had a 15% target share, 36.7 receiving yards per game, 1.59 yards per route run, and an 18.9% first-read share. Bech is the dart throw flex from the Raiders I would bet on if you’re looking for someone from this passing attack to utilize in a deep league this week. In those three games, Bech has had two red zone targets and a deep target. Since Week 12, New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Theo Johnson is the TE21 in fantasy points per game with five TE1 weekly finishes this season. With Jaxson Dart under center, Johnson has had a 19.2% target share with 36.6 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. In those ten games, Johnson has had eight red zone targets and four deep targets. Johnson isn’t on the streaming radar this week. Since Week 10, Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per target and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL