Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Aaron Judge
NYY
In 2023, Aaron Judge played 106 games, the least since 2019. Despite this, he delivered impressive stats: a .267/.406/.613 slash line with 37 homers. While remarkable, these figures probably disappointed those who expected more from a Top 5 pick. Statcast ranks Judge at the absolute top of several metrics, including xwOBA, xSLG, avgEV, Barrel%, HardHit%, and BB%. Judge remains an offensive powerhouse, but some health risks put him at a better value as a second-round pick in 12-team leagues.
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2.
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Shohei Ohtani remains a fantasy giant, even if he is only a hitter in 2024. Despite playing for an underwhelming Angels team, he delivered 95 RBIs, 102 runs, 44 homers, and 20 steals in 135 games. His recovery from an elbow injury should mirror Bryce Harper's successful return, indicating minimal impact on his elite performance. Statcast ranks Ohtani in the top 98th percentile for batting run value, leading in barrel percentage, exit velocity, and expected slugging. The only concern is the trend of players underperforming after big free-agent deals, but Ohtani's exceptional skill set makes him a solid addition to fantasy lineups. There is a chance he could slip to the second round, which boosts his value even higher.
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3.
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Despite missing 68 games in 2023, Yordan Alvarez showcased his exceptional batting skills. He posted a .293/.407/.583 line with 31 home runs and 97 RBIs, mirroring his 2022 RBI count in fewer games. Statcast ranks him in the 99th percentile for batting run value, underscoring his undeniable value in four fantasy categories. While his 18.5% strikeout rate is notable, his 13.9% walk rate compensates well. Alvarez is an excellent second-round choice for fantasy teams, especially if you're flexible with stolen bases.
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4.
Jose Ramirez
CLE
Jose Ramirez turned in another stellar season in 2023, hitting 24 home runs and stealing 28 bases while slashing .282/.356/.475. His other counting stats took a hit due to a subpar lineup around him. He only knocked in 80 and scored 87 across 156 games. Ramirez will be in his age-31 season, typically a time when stolen bases begin to slow down, but his superb batting skills will continue to have high fantasy value. If Cleveland does not improve the lineup around him, he is a first-round talent in a later-round situation that will leave fantasy managers wanting more.
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5.
Bryce Harper
PHI
Bryce Harper returned triumphantly from elbow surgery in May instead of the predicted July and rewarded every fantasy manager who took a flier on him late in 2023 drafts. He played 126 games and remained an elite hitter in the majors, slashing .293/.401/.499 in the middle of a Phillies lineup that finished sixth in team OPS. Harper is now primarily a DH/1B, which should work just fine in fantasy leagues, and fantasy managers can anticipate a 30/90/90 season with double-digit steals (he stole 11 in '23). After Freddie Freeman is off the board, whether Matt Olson or Harper goes next is a coin flip. A full season of Bryce Harper is never a bad thing to have on your fantasy roster.
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6.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. played 156 games and raised his walk rate while lowering his strikeout rate. Those were the highlights. Unfortunately, his other numbers took a fall across the board. The good news for 2024 is that Vladdy's expected numbers were more in line with what fantasy managers were looking for when they drafted him. For his age-25 season, he should see a bounce back to mid-30s in homers and close to 100/100 in runs and RBIs. The biggest discrepancy was his .264 average compared to his xBA of .295. Vladdy should be an asset, but he is now a Round 3 or 4 guy.
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7.
Manny Machado
SD
Manny Machado had a down year by his standards and by the standards of fantasy managers who took him early in 2023 drafts. In 138 games, he hit 30 home runs and drove in 91, which is in line with his career average. However, his batting average (.258) and OBP (.319) did not hold up their end of the bargain. Of course, neither did the Padres All-Star lineup. According to Statcast, he is right around average in Batting Run Value, which should drop his draft cost considerably, and his counting numbers may not hold steady with the departure of Juan Soto in the offseason. When you take into consideration the overall increase in talent at 3B and couple it with an aging Machado (he will turn 32 in July), there may be better value on the board in 2024.
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8.
Paul Goldschmidt
STL
Paul Goldschmidt continued to do what he does, albeit at a lesser pace than his torrid 2022. He hit 25 home runs, scored 89 runs, knocked in 80, and stole 11 bases. He continued to be a picture of stability, playing in over 150 games for the eighth year in a row (excluding 2020). His batting average tumbled from .317 to .268, and his slugging fell to .447 from .578. Essentially, the regression that we expected hit, yet he still had an overall productive season. Looking ahead, fantasy managers can probably expect numbers in line with 2023.
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9.
Adley Rutschman
BAL
Adley Rutschman arrived in 2023 in a big way. He slashed .277/.374/.435 and hit 20 home runs, drove in 80, and scored 84 times. The upstart Orioles offense is loaded with weapons, and the 26-year-old should continue to bat at the top of it. He will never steal bases, but he will protect your ratios better than any other catcher on the board. Don't be surprised when he is the first backstop drafted in 2024.
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10.
Christian Yelich
MIL
In 2023, Christian Yelich bounced back impressively, showcasing a potent mix of power and speed with 19 homers, 106 runs, 76 RBIs, and 28 steals. His .278 batting average matched his expected average, underlined by a top-tier Hard-Hit% in the 93rd percentile. Yelich's on-base skills shone, too, reaching a .370 OBP, partly thanks to the new shift rules. Despite a less-than-stellar Brewers lineup, he surpassed 100 runs, a trend likely to continue in 2024. While nagging back issues are a concern, a healthy Yelich offers strong outfield value, fitting comfortably as an OF3 with potential for more.
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11.
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Kyle Schwarber is one of the most predictable players in fantasy baseball. He will hit bombs (40+). He will score runs (100+). He is going to drive in teammates (100+). And he will absolutely crater your batting average (.197 in 2023). These stats seem like a "The sun rises in the East" type of guarantee. Schwarber does get on base, thanks to a 17.5% walk rate, and he continued to hit atop a powerful Phillies batting order. You just need to decide if you're punting the average category before you take him because you don't get to be surprised by it later.
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12.
William Contreras
MIL
William Contreras arrived in 2023 and produced at a Top 10 catcher rate for the entire season. He provides a nice balance of power and average from the backstop position, hitting 17 home runs and slashing .289/.367/.457. Nothing stands out as something fantasy managers will have to "account for" when drafting him, ideally past the eighth round.
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13.
George Springer
TOR
At age 33, George Springer played in 154 games, marking a high since 2016. While achieving his first 20/20 season, Springer's hitting showed notable dips with career lows in batting average (.258), OBP (.327), and SLG (.405). His Statcast data reveals an average performance, except in Chase% and K%. Springer remains a crucial player atop the potent Blue Jays lineup, expected to regain power but lose a few stolen bases. For 2024, he's ideally suited as an OF3/4.
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14.
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD
Teoscar Hernandez appeared in 160 games in his season with Seattle, echoing his typical performance. He notched 26 home runs, tallied 93 RBIs, and scored 70 runs. Excelling in hard hits (90th percentile) and a 13.8% barrel rate, Hernandez is expected to maintain a batting average of around .250. Landing in Los Angeles to bat in the middle of that powerhouse lineup, Hernandez suddenly has extremely high upside in counting stats. Beware of the premium that many fantasy managers will put on all 2024 Dodgers, but at the right price, Hernandez can be a high-end OF3.
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15.
Josh Naylor
CLE
Josh Naylor suffers from BatsInTheGuardiansLineupitis, but he offers enough upside to nab as a second or third corner infielder in the middle rounds. Naylor dealt with injuries in 2023, limiting him to 121 games. However, he hit 17 home runs and drove in 97 while slashing .308/.354/.489. He also kicked in 10 stolen bases for good measure. As long as he continues to bat behind Jose Ramirez, he should be a boon to the RBI category, but it's his 95th percentile xBA (.293) and K% (13.7) that makes him a valuable pick.
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16.
Josh Lowe
TB
In 2023, Josh Lowe emerged as a fantasy gem, especially for those lucky enough to snag him off waivers. Lowe significantly bolstered fantasy lineups by contributing a solid .273/.323/.457 slash line, 20 homers, and 32 steals. His metrics indicate this performance wasn't a fluke, with high percentile rankings in expected batting average, slugging, and sprint speed. Looking ahead, Lowe shows promise for another 20/20 season, making him a valuable second or third outfielder in fantasy leagues that you can get in the seventh round.
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17.
Anthony Santander
BAL
In 2023, Anthony Santander's performance was a blend of pros and cons. While his home run tally dipped and strikeout rate rose, he improved his batting average to .257 and saw an uptick in key statistics. Heading into 2024, the 29-year-old faces more potential risks than gains. With Baltimore's wealth of emerging prospects, Santander's role could be at risk if he doesn't start strong.
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18.
Marcell Ozuna
ATL
In 2023, Marcell Ozuna shined for the Atlanta Braves, hitting 40 homers in 144 games and posting a .274/.346/.558 batting line. Ranking in the top 98% for both xwOBA (.400) and xSLG (.558), Ozuna is poised for another strong year in 2024, backed by Atlanta's formidable lineup. However, fantasy managers should note he's likely to be DH-only in their lineups.
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19.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
CIN
Christian Encarnacion-Strand got 241 plate appearances for Cincinnati in 2023, hitting 13 home runs and slashing .270/.328/.477. The acquisition of Jeimer Candelario leaves the 24-year-old without a regular position other than DH, but that's all fantasy managers will need him for. CES has the profile to become a very helpful fantasy bat and can slot in as a corner infielder in lineups nicely.
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20.
Yainer Diaz
HOU
Yainer Diaz will probably be on every Sleepers list for 2024 drafts because he offers a ton of offense at a position that lacks it. The 25-year-old hit 23 home runs in 104 games while slashing an impressive .278/.306/.532. Yes, the OBP is low, which is attributable to his 2.9 percent walk rate. (If you're looking for the player in the first percentile in this category and Chase% (44), you've found him.) The good news is that his xBA is .288, and his xSLG is .543. He will get plenty of at-bats in Houston, and since defensive metrics don't matter in fantasy, he is definitely someone to target.
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21.
Jorge Soler
SF
In 2023, Jorge Soler demonstrated formidable power, blasting 36 homers while racking up 77 runs and 75 RBIs. With a .376 xwOBA, placing him in the top tier of hitters, the 31-year-old showcased his strength despite a high 24.3% strikeout rate. His standout ISO of .262 highlights his offensive prowess. Now a free agent, Soler's future lineup impact is uncertain, yet he's expected to maintain his 30+ home run potential and possibly surpass 90 runs and RBIs. Additionally, he retains outfield eligibility, avoiding fantasy limitations.
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22.
Masataka Yoshida
BOS
Masataka Yoshida impressed in his MLB debut, posting a .289/.338/.445 average and contributing 15 home runs, 71 runs, 72 RBIs, along with eight steals. Known for his low strikeout rate, Yoshida is expected to reach base even more in 2024. Surrounded by talents like Rafael Devers, the rising Triston Casas, and a potentially fit Trevor Story, his statistical output is poised to grow. Yoshida makes a reliable outfielder option, ideally as OF3 or OF4 in fantasy lineups.
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23.
Jake Burger
MIA
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24.
Willson Contreras
STL
Willson Contreras began his Cardinals career by improving his batting average and not slipping anywhere else. The elder Contreras brother hit 20 home runs, drove in 67, and slashed .264/.358/.467 across 125 games. He increased his BB% to 10.3 and is in the 93rd percentile in xwOBA at .373. While he will go through stretches where he chases more than fantasy managers would like, he should continue his Top 10 catcher production in his ninth season. Willson and William had eerily similar stats in 2023, but you can get Willson about 55 picks later. He is a great mid-round target to fill your catcher position.
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25.
Nolan Gorman
STL
Nolan Gorman offers the possibility of 30 home runs from the second base position, and you can have him past pick 180. The question is how many opportunities he will have, given that his K% is north of 30. Gorman feels like the type of fantasy player who hits most of his home runs while on your bench because you benched him after a week of 40 strikeouts. If your ratios are protected elsewhere, Gorman can provide pop in your MI slot.
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26.
Salvador Perez
KC
Salvador Perez remained a staple of the Kansas City Royals lineup in 2023, playing in 140 games and racking up 580 plate appearances. He hit .254 with a miserable .292 OBP and .422 SLG. He hit 23 home runs for the second year in a row and drove in 80. His projections for 2024 suggest more of the same for the 33-year-old. Perez is a catcher who isn't going to drag down your batting average and give you 20+ homers. That is a rare bird; at his ADP of 133, he isn't a bad value in 2024.
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27.
Christopher Morel
CHC
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28.
Edouard Julien
MIN
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29.
Eloy Jimenez
CWS
Eloy Jimenez presents a mixed bag for fantasy managers. In 2023, he managed 120 appearances, his highest since 2019, with a .272 average and 18 homers. However, limited playing time in a struggling White Sox team capped his runs at 50 and RBIs at 64. Despite projections hinting at a power uptick in 2024, concerns linger. His xSLG stood at a modest .421, and he's yet to exceed 121 games in a season. Plus, he's now only DH-eligible, raising several caution flags for fantasy selection.
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30.
Byron Buxton
MIN
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31.
J.D. Martinez
NYM
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32.
Kerry Carpenter
DET
Heading into 2024, Kerry Carpenter is a viable OF5 option, known for his power-hitting capabilities, evidenced by his 20 home runs. With a stronger lineup supporting him, expect an improvement in his previous tally of 57 runs and 64 RBIs. While his plate discipline could be better, given his low walk rate and considerable strikeouts, his draft value remains accessible, not requiring a high pick.
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33.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
ARI
Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., joined Arizona through the Daulton Varsho deal and impressed in his free agency lead-up. He achieved personal highs with 24 homers and 65 runs. Known for his solid contact hitting, ranking in the top 77% for HardHit%, Gurriel faced a dip in BABIP, likely to rebound in 2024. As a valuable OF5 pick, he's a great late-round draft choice.
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34.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
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35.
Mitch Garver
SEA
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36.
Justin Turner
TOR
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37.
Giancarlo Stanton
NYY
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38.
Josh Bell
MIA
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39.
Jake Fraley
CIN
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40.
Kris Bryant
COL
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41.
Brent Rooker
OAK
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42.
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
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43.
Tommy Pham
FA
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44.
Joey Meneses
WSH
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45.
Joc Pederson
ARI
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46.
Charlie Blackmon
COL
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47.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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48.
Ezequiel Duran
TEX
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49.
Mark Canha
DET
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50.
Rowdy Tellez
PIT
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51.
Harold Ramirez
TB
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52.
Jesse Winker
WSH
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53.
Andrew McCutchen
PIT
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54.
Heston Kjerstad
BAL
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55.
Edward Olivares
PIT
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56.
Brandon Belt
FA
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57.
Jiman Choi
NYM
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58.
Alec Burleson
STL
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59.
Mark Vientos
NYM
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60.
Garrett Cooper
CHC
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61.
Trey Mancini
FA
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62.
Luken Baker
STL
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63.
Mike Ford
CIN
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64.
Daniel Vogelbach
TOR
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65.
Alexander Canario
CHC
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66.
AJ Pollock
FA
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67.
Evan Longoria
FA
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68.
Robbie Grossman
CWS
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69.
Spencer Horwitz
TOR
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70.
Matt Carpenter
STL
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71.
Brendan McKay
TB
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72.
Willie Calhoun
LAA
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73.
Luis Torrens
NYY
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74.
Pavin Smith
ARI
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75.
Franmil Reyes
FA
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76.
Kyle Lewis
FA
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77.
Jorge Alfaro
FA
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78.
Brad Miller
SD
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79.
Tommy La Stella
FA
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80.
Darin Ruf
FA
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81.
Jahmai Jones
NYY
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82.
Cooper Hummel
HOU
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83.
Seth Beer
PIT
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