Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL
Acuna missed some time last year and batted a mere .250. And thus ends the negative things you can say about him. He walked at an absurd 18.8% clip, which led him to a .406 OBP despite the poor average. He was one of the league leaders in quality of contact, wOBA, and xWOBA, and we now know after the last two years that he will run often on the bases so long as he continues to bat leadoff, which he should. In other words, from a fantasy perspective, Acuna is an absolute monster. He's a top-three pick and will (deservedly) go first overall in many leagues, and there's still upside given that he just turned 23 years old.
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2.
Mookie Betts
LAD
Betts's first year with the Dodgers was basically exactly what fantasy managers expected - that is to say it was pretty much in line with what he did with the Red Sox. If you want to quibble, his walk rate dropped a few percentage points and he struck out at a career-worst 15.4% clip. But at this point, there are few safer players than Betts - you know he'll give you strong production in all five categories and he bats atop one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Betts should be a top-three pick and there's every reason to consider him number one overall. The downside is borderline non-existent.
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3.
Juan Soto
WSH
There aren't enough superlatives in the English language to describe what Soto has done in his career given his young age. Had he merely repeated his incredible 2019 numbers last season, fantasy managers would have been ecstatic. Instead, he upped his walk rate from an elite 16.4% to a truly remarkable 20.9%, cut his strikeout rate down to just 14.3%, and batted .351. Soto does not have the speed or baserunning chops to steal 30 bases in a season, which is the only thing keeping him from being considered worthy of drafting first overall. But given what he's accomplished through his age-21 season, it's truly scary to think of how high his ceiling may be. Draft him as a top-five pick and enjoy the ridiculous production.
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4.
Mike Trout
LAA
For one of the first times since he took the league by storm, Trout is not the consensus top pick this year. It's hardly his fault, though it's fair to point out some of the negatives with his 2020 season. He batted a career-low .281, and posted his worst walk- and strikeout-rates since 2015. He also stole only one base. But Trout's move down the overall baseball rankings is due more to his competition for the top spot, rather than his numbers. He was still among the league leaders in quality of contact and every expected statcast metric, and was on pace to hit 50 home runs over the course of a full season. Trout is entering his age-30 season, so although we've seen him rebound from poor stolen base years before, it now seems unlikely that he'll ever get back to much past low-double digits. That keeps him out of the top spot in rotisserie rankings, but his incredibly high floor makes him a top-five overall draft pick.
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5.
Christian Yelich
MIL
Yelich's 2020 season was, in a word, bizarre. After batting .327 combined from 2018-2019, his batting average dropped to a meager .205 last year. Although he hit the ball as hard as ever, setting career highs in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, his strikeout rate ballooned more than 10 points to 30.8%. At the same time, Yelich's walk rate jumped up to 18.6%. Unsurprisingly, the reason for the jump in both Yelich's strikeouts and walks was that he simply swung less - just 34.6% of the time after his mark hovered above 44% the previous two seasons. If Yelich takes the same passive approach in 2021, then it's likely that his batting average will remain below what fantasy managers had come to expect. But considering that his season was so out of line with what he'd produced since coming to Milwaukee, fantasy managers should expect far more this season, and feel confident drafting him late in the first round.
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6.
Cody Bellinger
LAD
Bellinger was unable to replicate the magic of his 2019 breakout during last year's shortened season. His average dipped to .239, the worst mark of his career, his power dropped significantly, and he didn't make the same quality of contact. But although he slid backwards in his walk and strikeout rates, his regression there was minimal, and his expected batting average was .284. In other words, Bellinger got worse in 2020, but it wasn't quite as bad as the surface numbers suggest. He did have offseason shoulder surgery after getting injured during a post-season celebration, and that's always a bit worrisome for a hitter. But given that a "down" year for Bellinger at this point is a 30-15 season, he warrants being selected early in the second round.
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7.
Bryce Harper
PHI
In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it.
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8.
Kyle Tucker
HOU
Tucker finally got regular playing time last year and it was mostly what fantasy owners had hoped for. Tucker didn't quite put up his gaudy numbers that he averaged in the minors, but he was on roughly a 25-20 pace while helping out in the other statistical categories. Tucker's batted ball profile didn't completely wow anyone last year, but given his performance, his prospect pedigree and minor-league track record, and his guaranteed spot in a strong lineup, fantasy managers should feel little concern about having Tucker be their first outfielder in fantasy.
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9.
Eloy Jimenez
CWS
Jimenez has some warts, without question. He hits the ball on the ground too much, doesn't walk enough, and will provide nothing in the stolen base category. But he makes up for all of that by hitting the ball really, really, really hard pretty much every time he steps up to the plate. Jimenez ranks no worse than the 90th percentile in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and hard hit percentage, and has hit 45 home runs in 177 MLB games. Playing in Guaranteed Rate Field helps, of course, and Jimenez should pretty easily provide nearly 40 home runs with strong runs and RBI over the course of a full season. Draft him as a borderline top-10 outfielder.
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10.
Marcell Ozuna
ATL
Ozuna had a career year with the Braves last year, slashing .338/.431/.636, a career best in each category. His 18 home runs and 56 RBI led the National League, while his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate were all among the best in baseball. Given that he had shoulder surgery before the 2018 season, it's fair to assume that he needed two full years to recover. And although perhaps we can't expect him to again lead the league in power categories, you should expect roughly a 35-homer, 100-RBI season with a plus batting average. That makes him capable of being your first outfielder in mixed leagues and an asset to any fantasy team.
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11.
Luis Robert
CWS
Robert's production was pretty much what it was cracked up to be in terms of his power and speed, but his .233 batting average was a little hard to stomach. He struck out way too much (32.2% of the time, bottom 6% of the league), and just didn't make hard enough contact consistently to keep his average above water. But Robert will be just 24 years old this season, so there's plenty of room for growth in that area. That's particularly true given that Robert was a career .312 hitter in the minors and .314 in Cuba. Even if he was a batting average drain, which you shouldn't expect, given that he was on a roughly 30-25 full-season pace last year, fantasy managers should be able to stomach it. Draft him as a borderline first outfielder in fantasy leagues and reap the rewards.
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12.
George Springer
TOR
Springer's batting average fell off a tad last year, but once he was past his wrist injury, he was explosive, batting .316 with a 1.033 OPS over the final month of the season. His expected statistics were excellent, as he ranked in the top eight percent of the league in xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA. Now with the Blue Jays and an extreme hitter's park (wherever the Blue Jay play this year), he should once again be in line for a stellar year. Home runs and runs scored should again be plentiful, making Springer a rock solid second outfielder in mixed leagues.
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13.
Whit Merrifield
KC
Merrifield has established an extremely strong floor, as he'll almost always be an asset in batting average, steals, and runs scored, and chip in for the remaining categories. There were some concern after his steals dropped to just 20 in 2019, but he bounced back to a 32-steal pace last year while also seeing a power spike. Merrifield is 32 years old and does not hit the ball particularly hard, but that's really irrelevant at this point. He is what he is, and with multi-position eligibility, what he is a major asset in fantasy and one of the top second basemen in fantasy.
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14.
Starling Marte
MIA
Marte's getting a little old for a player to rely on for stolen bases, and although fantasy managers need to start lowering their expectations as he enters his age-32 season, there should be enough left in the tank for him to be productive. He ranked in the top 11% in sprint speed last year and was caught stealing just twice in 10 attempts. The quality of his contact declined fairly significantly, however, and considering he now plays in Miami, anything more than 15 home runs should be considered gravy. But he'll likely continue to chip in for all five rotisserie categories and be an asset in both stolen bases and batting average, two difficult categories to fill. Again, temper expectations a bit against his historical production, but fantasy managers can still draft him with confidence.
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15.
Aaron Judge
NYY
Judge missed about half of the regular season last year with a calf strain, though he still hit for plenty of power when he was in the lineup. He walked and struck out a bit less than usual, but trying to glean anything from a 28-game sample, given Judge's history, is silly. When he's in the lineup, you know you'll get a ton of power and runs scored with a passable average. The key is "when he's in the lineup," however, as injuries have forced Judge to miss significant time over the last three seasons. So long as you factor that into your draft price and select him as an OF2, you'll be happy with the production.
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16.
Randy Arozarena
TB
Fantasy managers will likely remember Arozarena's remarkable postseason, when he slashed .377/.442/.831. But his regular season (.281/.382/.641) would make him a strong fantasy asset if he could repeat hit. Arozarena wasn't looked at as a high impact prospect, but he put on significant muscle before last year and it manifested itself in his power production. There's a 25-homer bat in his skill set, and the fact that he'll likely throw in 15-20 steals should give him a high floor regardless. Don't pay for the postseason, of course, but Arozarena should be a rock solid fantasy outfielder in 2021.
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17.
Michael Conforto
NYM
Conforto built on his excellent 2019 season by trading off a bit of power for some batting average. Fed by a significant increase in line drive rate that led to a .412 BABIP, Conforto batted a career best .322 last year. His xBA was just .284, so don't think that he suddenly morphed into a high average bat, but he did hit above .300 against every type of pitch last year, so it was certainly more than luck. Expect some regression to closer to his .259 mark, but he should hit around 30 homers with plenty of runs and RBI and even toss in a few steals. That makes him a worthwhile OF2 in mixed leagues.
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18.
Charlie Blackmon
COL
Blackmon hit just six home runs last year, and the quality of his contact was downright awful. His 86.9 MPH average exit velocity, 29.7% hard hit rate, and 4.9% barrel rate were all well below the MLB average and at or close to his career worst marks. And his sprint speed continued to decline to now what is essentially league average. The steals are likely gone for good, but even on his worst day, Blackmon will help you in batting average, runs, and RBI, and he was still on pace for 15 home runs last year. Blackmon may be on the downside of his career, but he won't cost you much and can still contribute solid or better numbers in four of five categories. With his draft price fairly modest, there's plenty of value there.
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19.
Nick Castellanos
CIN
Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.
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20.
Trent Grisham
SD
Grisham had an excellent debut season with San Diego, reaching double digits in both home runs and steals in his 59 games. He improved on his already strong walk rate from 2019, and improved his quality of contact significantly. Whether or not you buy the bat, we know he has plenty of speed to do damage on the basepaths, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. Slated to lead off again for a strong Padres lineup, Grisham should provide plenty of runs scored to go along with his potential for a 20-20 season.
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21.
Brandon Lowe
TB
Lowe actually lost a point on his batting average from 2019 (.269 from .270), but his profile looked far better in 2020. He cut his strikeout rate from 34.6% to 25.9%, and his swinging strike rate from 19.1% to 15.4%. Despite barreling the ball a whopping 17.5% of the time (top 2 percent in baseball), his average dropped a point because, well, he just didn't have an outrageously lucky BABIP like he did in 2019 (.377). Lowe improved his ISO and HR/FB rate, and was generally the best version of himself in 2020. Even mashing together his 2019 and 2020 seasons, Lowe has hit 31 homers and stole eight bases over 138 games. Batting near the top of a strong lineup, he should deliver another solid season at the thin second base position.
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22.
Austin Meadows
TB
Meadows missed time with an oblique injury last year, and, more importantly, because of complications from COVID-19. Meadows's strikeout rate ballooned to 32.9% and his average fell to just .205 in 2020. Even if you expected regression from his 2019 season, he's just much better than a player who put up the 87 wRC+ and .292 wOBA we saw last year. Though it's absolutely fair to write off Meadows's season entirely, it's a bit worrisome that he struggled so much against lefties (.143 batting average), as that could potentially open him up to a platoon situation if he struggles against them out of the gate. The best course of action is to discount him from his numbers in 2019 for certain, but still buy him as a strong third outfielder, which should bake in the risk of any continued struggles against his upside.
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23.
Teoscar Hernandez
TOR
Hernandez missed 10 games due to injury and still put up an impressive 16 home runs in his mere 50 games. The statcast leaderboard is peppered with Hernandez's name, as he hit the ball hard consistently throughout the year. He also upped his line drive rate significantly, which his why the underlying statistics supported his massive jump in batting average. But it's hard to tell if Hernandez's 2020 season was real or just a very hot 50-game stretch. After all, he still struck out more than 30 percent of the time, and his walk rate dropped by about two points. In the end, given his home park and his supporting case, you can buy Hernandez as a 35-homer bat who will chip in steals and help with the remaining counting stats. But assume he hits closer to his .245 batting average, and don't count on the 50 homer pace you saw last year.
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24.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
TOR
Gurriel Jr. has developed into an extremely strong major league hitter, showing far more power than he did in the minors. He makes consistently strong (though not elite) contact, and although he swings a ton, his strikeout rate isn't prohibitive. Gurriel isn't going to be elite in any category, but he's going to provide some value in all five. Batting in an excellent lineup and hitter's park (whichever one it may be), Gurriel should be a fine pick in drafts in all formats.
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25.
Cavan Biggio
TOR
Biggio doesn't hit the ball particularly well and is passive almost to a fault. He swung at just 36% of the pitches he saw last year, third-fewest in MLB, and that represents a continued trend. That passivity leads to increased strikeouts, but also plenty of walks, as Biggio took a free pass 15.5% of the time last season, which ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. Despite not making consistently strong contact, Biggio has hit 24 home runs in his 159 major league games, and he's added on 107 runs and 20 steals. Those numbers play extremely well for fantasy, particularly at the weak second base position. Biggio is likely to add third base eligibility with the Blue Jays' addition of Marcus Semien, which should only add to his value, and he makes a fine pick if you can nab him in the fifth round or so where his ADP generally lands.
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26.
Eddie Rosario
CLE
Rosario stays in the AL Central, signing a one-year deal with the Indians after a successful tenure with the Twins. He's established a fairly reliable power baseline at this point, and he usually offers some batting average to go with it. Last year, however, his batting average dipped to just .257, in part because he became much more passive (8.2% walk rate, 51.2% Swing%, both far out of character for his career). The bigger issue was that Rosario largely cut down on his swing percentage on pitches in the strike zone, but continued to swing at pitches out of the zone at a 41.2% clip. That likely explains his lower than usual average exit velocity and barrel rate, and it's something that's easily correctable if he just goes back to his previous approach. At the very least, Rosario should chip in 25 home runs at least, while helping out in runs and RBI, and he's a fine third outfielder in mixed leagues.
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27.
J.D. Martinez
BOS
Martinez had a disastrous 2020 season, during which he slashed just .213/.291/.389 and hit seven home runs. Martinez simply didn't hit the ball nearly as hard as he used to, and hit a ton of fly balls, the combination of which helped to drain his batting average significantly. There's a ton to dislike about last year, but given that Martinez has talked about how much he relies on watching video in-game, and his inability to do so last year because of COVID-19 protocols, it seems likely that you can write off last year to a slump that didn't have time to end. He'll be eligible at utility only, but there's a massive opportunity for profit if you are willing to largely look past 2020.
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28.
Jeff McNeil
NYM
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
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29.
Tommy Pham
SD
Pham had a terrible 2020 season, during which he slashed .211/.312/.312 and hit just three home runs. A broken hamate bone limited him to just 31 games, and to make matters worse, he was stabbed in the lower back during an altercation in the offseason. But even entering his age-33 season, there are reasons to be optimistic about his 2021 outlook. Pham had averaged roughly 22 home runs and 22 steals with a .284 batting average the three years prior to last, and he had the highest hard-hit rate of his career in 2020. Indeed, his expected batting average of .266 was 55 points higher than his actual average. There's reason to expect Pham to return to his 20-20 ways if he can remain healthy, and batting in a loaded Padres lineup, he should add plenty of counting stats.
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30.
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Alvarez missed almost all of last season and had surgery on both of his knees, which is obviously worrisome for his 2021 outlook. His 2019 performance was incredibly impressive on every level (50 homers, 149 RBI in 143 games between the majors and minors), and he offers a high batting average floor to boot. It's all about health with Alvarez, so monitor his performance this spring. If he shows he's remotely healthy, his ADP is going to skyrocket.
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31.
Alex Verdugo
BOS
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32.
Mike Yastrzemski
SF
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33.
Byron Buxton
MIN
Buxton has immense talent and upside, and it feel like he could be a fantasy superstar if he stays healthy. Limited to just 39 games last year, he hit 13 home runs, greatly increasing his barrel rate (13.5%), average exit velocity (91.2 MPH) and hard hit rate (47.9%). Although he only stole two base, his sprint speed ranked in the 99th percentile. The two things holding Buxton back are his health concerns - he has played more than 92 games just once in his career, and his .238 career batting average, which won't improve until he stops swinging so much, particularly at pitches outside of the zone. But he's still just 27 years old, and has the power and speed to deliver a 30-30 season in a perfect world. Just bake in some missed time into the draft capital you're willing to spend.
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34.
Wil Myers
SD
Myers talked openly about making a swing change last year, and it paid off in a big way. He raised his average by nearly 50 points over the previous year while cutting his strikeout rate, and ranked in the top seven percent in barrel rate. Myers didn't run as much as previous years in the shortened season, but he still ranked in the top 85% of the league in sprint speed. His average will likely come down to closer to its career .254 mark. But he has earned a bit of a leash at least with his strong 2020 campaign, and should be a fine power-speed combination who will put up solid overall counting numbers.
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35.
Michael Brantley
HOU
After a few hours where it looked like Brantley was heading to the Blue Jays, he'll instead return to the Astros on a two-year contract. Despite his advancing age, Brantley remains one of the safest players in all of fantasy, batting at least .299 in each of the last six seasons in which he played at least 11 games. He both walked and struck out more than usual last season, but given that he played in just 46 games, there's little reason to draw any firm conclusions from that data. The bigger issue is that Brantley excels in only batting average, and although he'll offer something in each of the other four rotisserie categories, he won't be a difference-maker. Draft Brantley in the middle-to-later rounds if you need an average boost, but there's little upside.
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36.
Dominic Smith
NYM
Smith showed he had the bat to hit in the majors in 2019, but he took an extra step forward in last year's shortened season. His .316/.377/.616 slash line effectively forced the Mets to find a way to get his bat into the lineup, even if his defense tried to prevent it. His Statcast data was excellent, as he put up a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%, all with a .405 wOBA, which was in the top four percent of the league. The issue for Smith is his fielding and with the National League surprisingly not adopting the designated hitter, that means he'll need to play out in left field most days. Although the Mets can surely live with the tradeoff, Smith will likely lose plenty of at-bats late in games as he gets switched out for defensive purposes. He'll still have plenty of value, but without the DH, be cautious with your projections for his counting stats.
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37.
Ramon Laureano
OAK
Laureano had a down 2020, which included a .213 batting average and a sharp decline in his Statcast data, as well as his steal attempts. But he had provided a fairly solid baseline over the two prior seasons, with a .288 batting average, 29 home runs, and 20 steals while being caught just three times over 171 games. Laureano doesn't excel anywhere, but he'll chip in almost everywhere, and you can get him beyond the 12th round in most drafts. He's an ideal fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.
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38.
Joey Gallo
TEX
Gallo went from a big-time power hitter who would drain your batting average in 2017-2018, to a big-time power hitter who wouldn't crush your average in 2019, to a complete disaster in 2020. Gallo has actually been consistent against righties over the last several years, and the difference in his performance has been that he somehow destroyed lefties in 2019 (.333/.427/.747) and was worse than ever in 2020 (.143/.241/.386). The best bet is he's more like the 2017-2018 version of himself, and he'll likely put up a season where he hits around 40 home runs and bats in the low .200s. That's plenty valuable, and his ADP seems to be giving a ton of credit to his 2020 season. That leaves a lot of room for Gallo to outperform his draft position.
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39.
Giancarlo Stanton
NYY
It's all about the injuries with Stanton, as after two healthy seasons, he's been limited to just 41 games over the last two. There's little to analyze with the slugger other than his health. He still hits the ball as hard as anyone and walks and strikes out a ton. There's been little decline in his batted ball data over the last two years, but even if there had been, the sample size would be too small to draw any conclusions. Stanton is likely eligible at utility only in your league, but that limitation should let him come as a discount in drafts. Have power on your bench ready to fill in if you draft Stanton, but there's no reason to run from him.
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40.
Kyle Lewis
SEA
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41.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
Mountcastle followed up a successful minor-league career with a strong 35-game stint in the majors last year. Not only did he bat .333 with an .878 OPS and a 139 wRC+, but he also walked 7.9% of the time, far above what he showed in the minors. The batting average is unsustainable - he was a .295 hitter in the minors and last year he relied on a .398 BABIP despite sub-par average exit velocity and a middling line drive rate. But playing in Camden Yards should certainly keep his production high, and batting in the middle of the Orioles lineup should lead to enough RBI chances to make him a rosterable, if not startable, fantasy option.
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42.
Jorge Soler
KC
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43.
Anthony Santander
BAL
Santander has quietly turned into a strong power bat, but few fantasy managers seem to give him credit. A .476 slugging percentage with 20 home runs in 93 games in 2019, followed by a .575 slugging percentage and 11 home runs in 37 games in 2020. There's nothing particularly fluky about his power output - it's just a young hitter coming into his own and making better contact. He did seem to sell out a bit for power last year, upping his launch angle and fly ball rate significantly. And yet he hit .261, the same mark as in 2019, and his xBA was .286. In other words, there's plenty to like about Santander, who is going well behind other hitters who offer similar production. He should be a value in drafts this year.
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44.
Max Kepler
MIN
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45.
Victor Robles
WSH
There were plenty of warning signs with Robles' batted-ball data heading into 2020, and they're only greater now after an abysmal season during which he slashed .220/.293/.315. The MLB average in barrel rate and average exit velocity are 6.4% and 88.3 MPH, respectively. Robles clocked in at 4.8% and 83.3 MPH in 2019, and then fell to a ridiculous 1.7% and 82.2 MPH in 2020. His continously poor contact limits any upside, but it's worth noting that he still hit 17 homers and stole 28 bases in 2019 despite it all. Robles is still just entering his age-24 season, so massive long-term growth is still certainly on the table. But for now, it's impossible to justify drafting him as anything more than a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
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46.
Ian Happ
CHC
Happ has always made consistently hard contact, but his strikeout rate was simply untenable, hovering around 34% in his first two seasons. But he has cut that down to a more manageable 26% over the last two years, and he's batted .260 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI over 115 games in that span. Happ has some speed even if he hasn't shown it recently, and he'll likely bat leadoff for the Cubs, who may need to manufacture runs more than in previous years. The average probably won't help you much, but he should contribute in four categories at a relatively inexpensive price.
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47.
AJ Pollock
LAD
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48.
Ketel Marte
ARI
Most fantasy managers expected regression from Marte after his breakout 2019 season, but few saw last year coming. Marte hit two homeruns in his 45 games, and contributed minimally elsewhere other than batting average. His walk rate dropped to a miniscule 3.6%, and although he struck out less than ever, the quality of his contact was overwhelmingly poor. Truth be told, both 2019 and 2020 are probably outliers for Marte, and the truth probably lies somewhere between his 2018 (.260/.332/.437) and 2019 (.329/.389/.592) seasons. Those numbers will play at second base, especially given Marte's draft cost, but give up dreams of him hitting 32 home runs ever again.
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49.
Kris Bryant
CHC
Bryant had a terrible 2020 season, but it seems like fantasy managers are forgetting how consistent he's been. Over the last four seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .278 average, 29 home runs, 112 run scored, 80 RBI, and five steals. His quality of contact was awful last season, but hard contact has never really been his calling card anyway, and he battled back and wrist injuries. Bryant doesn't deserve a mulligan entirely for last season, but give it minimal weight in your evaluation.
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50.
Andrew McCutchen
PHI
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51.
Dylan Carlson
STL
Carlson caught major buzz heading into the season last year as he looked likely to earn an everyday role in the outfield, but he sputtered for much of the season even when he did play, slashing just .200/.252/.364 with three home runs in 119 plate appearances. But he had a successful, albeit brief, post-season, and now again looks ready to claim a starting outfield spot for the Cardinals. Carlson is just 22 years old and has a strong minor-league track record. If he can hold down his spot, he has 25-15 potential, and should hit for a solid average. Given his age and his poor 2020 season, there's some obvious risk, but the draft capital necessary to get him on your team is not prohibitive, and his upside should make him a target in all formats.
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52.
Franmil Reyes
CLE
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53.
Dylan Moore
SEA
Moore hit .255 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 38 games last year. Despite not having an abundance of speed, Moore's stolen base prowess is real, as he stole 96 bases over 447 minor league games at a 77% clip and ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed last year. And he cut his strikeout rate to a high but manageable 27% last year, and his barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity were all well above average. But Moore has struggled against righties for much of his time in the majors, and despite his success last year, is unlikely to have a long leash with Shed Long waiting in the wings. Moore has upside and multi-position eligibility to go along with his power and speed. Just have a backup plan ready to go.
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54.
Tommy Edman
STL
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
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55.
Kyle Schwarber
WSH
Schwarber gave back many of his 2019 gains last year, seeing a rise in strikeout rate (29.5%) and his batting average dropping to an abysmal .188. But Schwarber's season was far from linear: over the first half of the season, he slashed .230/.343/.448, but those numbers dropped to .154/.279/.346 over the second half. At the same time, he continued to hit the ball extremely hard, with a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, which was top 5% in the league. Given his consistently hard contact, the better course of action seems to forgive Schwarber for what amounted to an extremely poor 24-game stretch to close out the season. Now batting in the middle of the Nationals lineup with a fresh start and entering his age-28 season, Schwarber should rebound to somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 numbers.
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56.
Trey Mancini
BAL
Mancini missed all of the 2020 season after being diagnosed with cancer, but appears to be healthy as we head into 2021. He had a breakout 2019 season during which he hit 35 home runs and slashed .291/.364/.535, and there's every reason to think that production is sustainable. Mancini had hit 24 home runs in each of the two previous seasons, and other than being a bit more selective at the plate, made few changes that suggest his 2019 production was fluky. Instead, it appeared to be the natural progression of a hitter improving on his already strong foundation. Batting in a great home park, Mancini should again be a four-category producer, and his ADP should rise if he shows he's fully healthy throughout the spring.
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57.
Clint Frazier
NYY
There's little reason to doubt Frazier's ability to contribute from a fantasy perspective at this point. Over the last two seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .267 average, 30 home runs, 83 runs scored, 96 RBI, and 6 steals. He upped his walk rate significantly in 2020 (15.6%, top seven percent in the league) and hits the ball hard consistently. The only issue for Frazier is his playing time with Giancarlo Stanton healthy and Brett Gardner back in the fold. But Frazier has done enough to hold the left field job and, regardless, Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks are not the product of health. Draft Frazier as a starting outfielder and don't worry about the playing time.
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58.
Jesse Winker
CIN
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|
59.
Nick Solak
TEX
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60.
Andrew Benintendi
KC
Benintendi will get a fresh start with the Royals in 2021, and if any player ever needed a change of scenery, it's him. After looking like a perennial 20-20 player with a solid batting average, Benintendi has fallen off a cliff the last two years. To the extent you could boil his struggles down to something simple, it was that he appeared to get too homer-happy in 2019. Despite making better contact when he did hit the ball, his swinging strike rate jumped by four points to 11.6%, and his fly ball percentage and launch angle skyrocketed. Things didn't look much better in his brief 2020 season, which was cut short by a rib injury. Benintendi is still young, and out of the spotlight of the Boston media, might be able to return to what made him an impact player prior to 2019. You won't need to spend a ton to find out, thankfully, and he's worth a late-round pick in all formats.
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61.
Lorenzo Cain
MIL
Cain opted out of the season last year after just five games, but he'll play and bat near the top of the Brewers' lineup this year. His steals total dropped to just 18 in 2019, and his sprint speed has been declining in recent years. But he talked openly about wanting to try to steal more bases before he opted out last year, and he's still a safe bet for batting average and double-digit homers. He's been forgotten a bit in drafts this year, but he's a fine fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
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62.
Mark Canha
OAK
Fantasy managers seem to have declared Canha's 2019 season as a fluke after he hit just five home run last year, but much of his 2020 seems to suggest 2019 was fairly legitimate. Canha built on his massive gains in walk rate in 2019 (13.5%) and increased it to 15.2%, and his quality of contact largely remained the same. He's got 20-homer power still, and he'll likely lead off or bat second for the A's. You won't need to pay much for him and given his average draft position, there's a high probability of a profit.
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63.
Kole Calhoun
ARI
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64.
Mitch Haniger
SEA
Haniger hasn't played since June of 2019, and his career has been riddled with injuries. But he's shown his potential in his lone healthy season, and he certainly has 25-homer pop in his bat. The question, as usual, is health, and for now, he remains ready to go for the season. If things remain that way, draft him as a bench player with upside.
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65.
Victor Reyes
DET
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66.
Chris Taylor
LAD
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|
67.
Austin Riley
ATL
Riley made some notable gains last year after he looked like he might fall out of fantasy-relevance entirely with the way he closed his 2019 season. He essentially traded off some power for contact, as his swing percentage dropped, his contact rate increased, and he improved on both his walk and strikeout rates. Although there was some question as to whether the Braves would add another third baseman in free agency, it appears they're content to roll with Riley to begin the year. That should make him a cheap source of power for fantasy, one whose batting average (.262 xBA last year) won't hurt you too badly.
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68.
Brandon Nimmo
NYM
Nimmo has a career .390 OBP and will be batting atop the Mets lineup this year, and that's really all you need to know for his fantasy value. He'll likely be a steady contributor in the runs scored category, while chipping in some homers and steals with a batting average that won't hurt you much. He might see a bit of a platoon against left-handers, but he's a player who will cost you nothing in drafts and who can fill in for your team if you need him. He's worth a bench spot in all 10-team or deeper leagues.
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69.
Raimel Tapia
COL
Tapia doesn't make a ton of hard contact, but he slashed .321/.369/.402 last year and led off for the Rockies for the majority of the season. He's slated to do so again this year, which means he should be a cheap source of runs, batting average, and steals. Tapia's been around for awhile and never held a starting job all season, but he's in an excellent position this year and can be drafted late in all mixed leagues as a fifth outfielder or bench player.
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70.
Hunter Dozier
KC
Dozier is almost entirely off the fantasy radar this year, but that feels like an overreaction to 2020. Yes, his poor performance last year makes his breakout 2019 performance seem like an outlier, but really, it seems like 2020, rather than 2019, should be discounted. Dozier's quality of contact was awful last year, but it was out of character for him over the previous two seasons, and was more likely the result of him having tested positive for COVID-19 rather than from a sudden loss of skills. The Royals' lineup is sneaky deep, and Dozier will start at third base this season, giving him eligibility at three positions. Considering he's free in drafts, there is every reason to scoop him up with a late-round pick.
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71.
Aaron Hicks
NYY
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72.
Leody Taveras
TEX
Taveras should be a cheap source of speed for fantasy managers this year, as he's set to lead off for the Rangers. He stole 32 bases across 131 minor league games in 2019 and eight last year in 33 games. He won't do a ton else for your fantasy team, but given that he ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed last year, his contributions in the stolen base category should more than make up for his lack of production in others.
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73.
Randal Grichuk
TOR
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|
74.
David Peralta
ARI
Peralta is entering his age-34 season and coming off a season during which he hit just five home runs, but he still makes a fairly reliable late-round selection. His career batting average is .291 (and he hit .300 last year), and his 162-game pace is roughly 20 home runs and 160 combined runs and RBI. Even if his steals are gone, there's still plenty of production left in the bat for someone who will be drafted well beyond the top 200 picks, and who had shoulder surgery prior to the 2020 season which likely affected his production. The upside isn't there anymore, but safe and boring can sometimes be the right move.
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75.
J.D. Davis
NYM
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76.
Jarred Kelenic
SEA
|
|
77.
Austin Hays
BAL
|
|
78.
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
|
|
79.
Brian Anderson
MIA
|
|
80.
Nick Senzel
CIN
|
|
81.
Joc Pederson
CHC
|
|
82.
Daulton Varsho
ARI
Varsho saw plenty of action between catcher and the outfield last year for the Diamondbacks, and although he batted just .188, he hit three home runs and stole three bases. That may not sound like much but for a catcher-eligible player in 37 games, it's plenty. The problem for Varsho is that the Diamondbacks' roster looks pretty full, especially with the signing of Asdrubal Cabrera, and there's a good chance he begins the year in the minors. There's a ton of potential for Varsho, given that he was a high-average hitter during his minor-league career, but it seems increasingly likely that fantasy managers will need to wait a bit longer for him to become someone to start in fantasy leagues.
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83.
Adam Eaton
CWS
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|
84.
Avisail Garcia
MIL
|
|
|
85.
Alex Kirilloff
MIN
Kirilloff's bat is probably major-league ready, but since he hasn't yet played above Double-A and his fielding is iffy at best, he's likely to start the year in the minors. But his .317/.365/.498 slash line in his minor league career suggests he'll hit upon his promotion, which will likely be in late-April once the Twins gain a year of control. Even though he's unlikely to begin the year with the big club, draft him on your bench. He'll be an expensive waiver wire pickup if you don't.
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86.
David Fletcher
LAA
|
|
87.
Justin Upton
LAA
|
|
88.
Alex Dickerson
SF
|
|
89.
Garrett Hampson
COL
|
|
90.
Manuel Margot
TB
|
|
91.
David Dahl
TEX
|
|
92.
Jon Berti
MIA
|
|
93.
Jurickson Profar
SD
|
|
94.
Yasiel Puig
FA
|
|
95.
Corey Dickerson
MIA
|
|
96.
Jo Adell
LAA
|
|
97.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
MIL
|
|
98.
Adam Duvall
MIA
|
|
99.
Brandon Belt
SF
|
|
100.
Jason Heyward
CHC
|
|
101.
Oscar Mercado
CLE
|
|
102.
Kevin Pillar
NYM
|
|
103.
Cristian Pache
ATL
|
|
104.
Hunter Renfroe
BOS
|
|
105.
Willie Calhoun
TEX
|
|
106.
Mauricio Dubon
SF
|
|
107.
Sam Hilliard
COL
|
|
108.
Scott Kingery
PHI
|
|
109.
Myles Straw
HOU
|
|
110.
Robbie Grossman
DET
|
|
111.
Stephen Piscotty
OAK
|
|
112.
Shogo Akiyama
CIN
|
|
113.
Austin Slater
SF
|
|
114.
Tyler O'Neill
STL
|
|
115.
Josh Naylor
CLE
|
|
116.
Harrison Bader
STL
|
|
117.
Kevin Kiermaier
TB
|
|
118.
Luis Arraez
MIN
|
|
119.
Garrett Cooper
MIA
|
|
120.
Franchy Cordero
BOS
|
|
121.
Gregory Polanco
PIT
|
|
122.
Niko Goodrum
DET
|
|
123.
Ryan Braun
FA
|
|
124.
Kike Hernandez
BOS
|
|
125.
Nomar Mazara
DET
|
|
126.
Danny Santana
BOS
|
|
127.
JaCoby Jones
DET
|
|
128.
Adam Frazier
PIT
|
|
129.
Shin-Soo Choo
FA
|
|
130.
DJ Stewart
BAL
|
|
131.
Josh Reddick
FA
|
|
132.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
TB
|
|
|
133.
Julio Rodriguez
SEA
|
|
134.
Roman Quinn
PHI
|
|
135.
Miguel Andujar
NYY
|
|
136.
Michael Chavis
BOS
|
|
137.
Aristides Aquino
CIN
|
|
138.
Michael A. Taylor
KC
|
|
139.
Andrew Stevenson
WSH
|
|
140.
Tim Lopes
MIL
|
|
141.
Edward Olivares
KC
|
|
142.
Ender Inciarte
ATL
|
|
143.
Brett Gardner
NYY
|
|
144.
Monte Harrison
MIA
|
|
145.
Chad Pinder
OAK
|
|
146.
Cedric Mullins II
BAL
|
|
147.
Tim Locastro
ARI
|
|
148.
Anthony Alford
PIT
|
|
|
149.
Jared Oliva
PIT
|
|
150.
Dexter Fowler
LAA
|
|
151.
Adam Haseley
PHI
|
|
152.
Jay Bruce
NYY
|
|
153.
Daniel Johnson
CLE
|
|
154.
Mike Tauchman
NYY
|
|
|
155.
Josh Lowe
TB
|
|
156.
Marwin Gonzalez
BOS
|
|
157.
Jake Cave
MIN
|
|
158.
Jose Marmolejos
SEA
|
|
159.
Jake Bauers
CLE
|
|
160.
Nick Markakis
FA
|
|
161.
Tony Kemp
OAK
|
|
|
162.
Riley Green
HS
|
|
163.
Adam Engel
CWS
|
|
|
164.
JJ Bleday
MIA
|
|
165.
Stephen Vogt
ARI
|
|
166.
Shed Long Jr.
SEA
|
|
167.
Yusniel Diaz
BAL
|
|
168.
Mallex Smith
NYM
|
|
169.
Odubel Herrera
PHI
|
|
170.
Jarrod Dyson
FA
|
|
171.
Domingo Santana
FA
|
|
|
172.
Jarren Duran
BOS
|
|
173.
Leury Garcia
CWS
|
|
174.
Brad Miller
PHI
|
|
175.
Jesus Sanchez
MIA
|
|
176.
Brandon Marsh
LAA
|
|
177.
Josh Rojas
ARI
|
|
178.
Albert Almora Jr.
NYM
|
|
179.
Cole Tucker
PIT
|
|
180.
Jose Martinez
NYM
|
|
181.
Derek Fisher
MIL
|
|
182.
Eric Thames
FA
|
|
183.
Lewis Brinson
MIA
|
|
184.
Jose Peraza
NYM
|
|
185.
Harold Ramirez
CLE
|
|
186.
Dee Strange-Gordon
CIN
|
|
187.
Eric Sogard
CHC
|
|
|
188.
Chas McCormick
HOU
|
|
189.
Taylor Trammell
SEA
|
|
190.
Taylor Ward
LAA
|
|
191.
Brian Goodwin
PIT
|
|
192.
Jake Marisnick
CHC
|
|
193.
Jordan Luplow
CLE
|
|
194.
Seth Brown
OAK
|
|
195.
Lane Thomas
STL
|
|
196.
Sam Haggerty
SEA
|
|
197.
Tyler Naquin
CIN
|
|
198.
Johan Camargo
ATL
|
|
199.
Dustin Fowler
PIT
|
|
200.
Bradley Zimmer
CLE
|
|
201.
Matt Beaty
LAD
|
|
202.
Christin Stewart
DET
|
|
|
203.
Juan Rivera
FA
|
|
204.
Jake Fraley
SEA
|
|
205.
Tyler Wade
NYY
|
|
206.
Cameron Maybin
CHC
|
|
207.
Drew Waters
ATL
|
|
208.
Magneuris Sierra
MIA
|
|
209.
Darin Ruf
SF
|
|
210.
Steven Souza Jr.
HOU
|
|
211.
Derek Dietrich
NYY
|
|
212.
Yairo Munoz
BOS
|
|
213.
Delino DeShields
TEX
|
|
214.
Matt Kemp
FA
|
|
215.
Daniel Robertson
FA
|
|
216.
Daz Cameron
DET
|
|
217.
Brent Rooker
MIN
|
|
218.
Harold Castro
DET
|
|
219.
Ben Gamel
CLE
|
|
220.
Ryan McBroom
KC
|
|
221.
Matt Joyce
PHI
|
|
222.
Brett Phillips
TB
|
|
|
223.
Seth Beer
ARI
|
|
224.
Chris Herrmann
BOS
|
|
225.
Jorge Mateo
SD
|
|
226.
Phillip Ervin
ATL
|
|
227.
Brandon Drury
NYM
|
|
228.
Yonathan Daza
COL
|
|
229.
Steven Duggar
SF
|
|
230.
Bubba Starling
KC
|
|
231.
Greg Allen
NYY
|
|
232.
Billy McKinney
MIL
|
|
233.
Travis Demeritte
ATL
|
|
234.
Billy Hamilton
CLE
|
|
235.
Brock Holt
TEX
|
|
236.
Phil Gosselin
LAA
|
|
237.
Gerardo Parra
WSH
|
|
238.
Austin Dean
STL
|
|
239.
Abraham Almonte
ATL
|
|
240.
Mark Payton
CIN
|
|
241.
Eli White
TEX
|
|
242.
Jon Jay
FA
|
|
|
243.
Ka'ai Tom
OAK
|
|
|
244.
Nick Heath
KC
|
|
245.
Tyrone Taylor
MIL
|
|
246.
Jonathan Davis
TOR
|
|
247.
Guillermo Heredia
ATL
|
|
248.
Chris Owings
COL
|
|
249.
Scott Heineman
CIN
|
|
250.
Brian O'Grady
SD
|
|
251.
Justin Williams
STL
|
|
252.
Mark Mathias
MIL
|
|
253.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
|
|
254.
Kyle Garlick
MIN
|
|
255.
Mickey Moniak
PHI
|
|
|
256.
Khalil Lee
NYM
|
|
257.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
SF
|
|
258.
Braden Bishop
SEA
|
|
259.
Jace Peterson
MIL
|
|
260.
DJ Peters
LAD
|
|
261.
JT Riddle
MIN
|
|
262.
Micker Adolfo
CWS
|
|
263.
Jaylin Davis
SF
|
|
264.
Adolis Garcia
TEX
|
|
|
265.
Luis Gonzalez
CWS
|
|
266.
Charlie Culberson
TEX
|
|
267.
Ronnie Dawson
HOU
|
|
268.
Michael Hermosillo
CHC
|
|
|
269.
Josh Palacios
TOR
|
|
|
270.
Trevor Larnach
MIN
|
|
271.
Luis Barrera
OAK
|
|
|
272.
Akil Baddoo
DET
|
|
273.
Chris Shaw
BAL
|
|
274.
Luis Alexander Basabe
SF
|
|
275.
Jason Martin
TEX
|
|
|
276.
Stuart Fairchild
ARI
|
|
277.
Luke Raley
LAD
|
|
278.
Dwight Smith Jr.
BAL
|
|
279.
Estevan Florial
NYY
|
|
280.
Ian Miller
CHC
|
|
281.
Scott Schebler
LAA
|
|
|
282.
Marcus Wilson
BOS
|
|
283.
Jose Siri
HOU
|
|
|
284.
Stephen Wrenn
HOU
|
|
|
285.
Greg Deichmann
OAK
|
|
286.
Derek Hill
DET
|
|
287.
Troy Stokes Jr.
PIT
|
|
288.
Dustin Peterson
MIL
|
|
289.
Cesar Puello
BOS
|
|
290.
Nick Williams
CWS
|
|
291.
Skye Bolt
OAK
|
|
|
292.
Zach Reks
LAD
|
|
293.
Ryan McKenna
BAL
|
|
294.
Blake Rutherford
CWS
|
|
295.
Forrest Wall
TOR
|
|
|
296.
Nick Banks
WSH
|
|
297.
Corey Ray
MIL
|
|
298.
Joey Rickard
FA
|
|
299.
Sean Rodriguez
FA
|
|
300.
Jorge Bonifacio
FA
|
|
301.
Trayce Thompson
ARI
|
|
302.
Kevin Kramer
PIT
|
|
303.
Stevie Wilkerson
BAL
|
|
304.
Socrates Brito
FA
|
|
305.
Travis Jankowski
PHI
|
|
306.
Sam Travis
SEA
|
|
307.
Erick Mejia
KC
|
|
308.
Robel Garcia
HOU
|
|
309.
Tim Beckham
CWS
|
|
310.
Yasmany Tomas
WSH
|
