Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Trea Turner
LAD
Turner's excellence depends on his health. He's played more than 148 games only once in his seven-year career. If LA's great weather can keep him on the field, he's a legitimate threat for 30 HRs, 100 RBI and 110 runs in a consistently good Dodgers lineup. But Turner's history makes it more likely he plays in something closer to 120-130 games. Is that worth his top-three ADP? Qualifying at 2B bumps up his value a few ticks, but keeper league owners should beware: He'll return to SS-only eligibility in 2023.
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2.
Ozzie Albies
ATL
Ignoring the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Albies stands alone as the only player to score 100 runs, hit 20 home runs and steal 10 bases over each of the last three full seasons. He's a surefire five-category hitter coming into his prime. If Mookie Betts doesn't maintain 2B eligibility in your league, Albies is the No. 2 second baseman behind Trea Turner.
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3.
Mookie Betts
LAD
If Betts is healthy, he's an automatic NL MVP candidate. He played through back and hip injuries last year that limited his effectiveness. Reports are that Betts is healthy and ready to resume his spot amongst the game's elite. If he has 2B eligibility in your league, he's even more valuable. If Betts slides to 8, 9, 10 in the first round, snatch him up. If he adds 20 steals to his usually impressive R/HR/RBI tallies, he's going to be in the running for the overall No. 1 player at season's end.
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4.
Marcus Semien
TEX
Semien's 45 HRs last season were the most ever by a second baseman. His monster 2021 performance also included 115 runs, 102 RBI and 15 stolen bases. A 48% flyball rate makes Semien a launch angle darling and suggests that he'll keep clearing the fences. He's been a prolific run scorer for the last four seasons. On the other hand, there's some batting average risk here, and Semien probably maxed out his SB potential last year. He's going from a loaded Blue Jays lineup to a sketchy Rangers lineup, and Semien will turn 32 in September. Last year's numbers will make him irresistible to some investors, but a drop-off in value may be imminent.
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5.
Whit Merrifield
TOR
This late bloomer has been fantasy gold for the last five years. Merrifield stole 40 bases last season at age 32. Durability is a big plus: Merrifield hasn't missed a game in the last three years. But there are some worrisome signs of slippage. His line drive rate has been steadily dropping over the last few seasons, and he hit only two home runs last season from July 1 on. Merrifield has been a terrific value for years, but it's possible he'll be slightly overpriced in 2022 drafts.
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6.
Jose Altuve
HOU
After a forgettable short season in 2020, Altuve tied a career high with 31 home runs last year, scored a career-high 117 runs and had 83 RBI despite hitting in the leadoff spot. The peripherals suggest that Altuve's 2021 HR total was somewhat fluky and park-aided. Altuve used to be good for 30+ stolen bases a season, but he's had 11 SBs in his last two full seasons combined. The days of .300 batting averages may be gone, too. Altuve has been below .300 in each of the last three seasons and has batted .277 over that span. We should at least be able to count on a lot of runs with Altuve batting at the top of a stacked lineup, but the ceiling here isn't what it used to be. Exercise caution as Altuve enters his age-32 season.
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7.
Javier Baez
DET
The free-swinging middle infielder signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers. Baez led the NL with 184 strikeouts last year but also belted 31 homers, had 87 RBI and 80 runs, and batted a respectable .265. This is a strange, volatile skill set, but Baez can usually be counted on to provide help with the counting stats. He won't hurt you in leagues that use batting average, but his unwillingness to take a walk becomes a liability in OBP leagues.
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8.
Ketel Marte
ARI
Guys with recurring muscle injuries scare me. They're one wrong step away from missing a month. Marte terrifies me. Ever since his 2019 breakout that had all of us wondering if we'd be better off with Marte or Ozzie Albies (lol, what were we thinking?), Marte has had trouble staying healthy. Arizona is likely to give him more rest this season with the goal of keeping him on the field. He'll still help you in average, and he has a little pop in his bat, but he's one of the riskier investments in fantasy baseball.
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9.
Brandon Lowe
TB
In 2021, Lowe became a full-time player for the first time in his career and responded with 39 HRs, 99 RBI and 97 runs. He batted only .247 last year and struck out 167 times in 615 plate appearances. Lowe has also struggled against lefties throughout his career. But Lowe's first-half/second-half splits were eye-opening. He was batting .208 at the All-Star break; Lowe batted .292 after the break and dramatically reduced his strikeout rate without sacrificing any power. If the second-half adjustments stick, Lowe might actually be able to improve upon his breakout season.
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10.
Jorge Polanco
MIN
Polanco enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2021, batting .269 with 33 HRs, 98 RBI, 97 runs and 11 SBs. He went nuclear after the All-Star break, batting .287 with 21 homers. Could it be that Polanco feels less pressure as a second baseman than as a shortstop, and his hitting has benefitted as a result? Polanco has always been a line drive machine, so even if the power gains don't stick (and there's a good chance they won't), he should still deliver a healthy batting average. Dual 2B-SS eligibility is a plus. Polanco is a worthy investment, but don't pay for a full repeat of the power.
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11.
Jonathan India
CIN
Full disclosure:, I have a little man(ager) crush on India. The NL Rookie of the Year saved my season last year after some early middle infield injuries. He's a five-category option who will still be available in the eighth round or beyond. But beware: He's not going to get a lot of help in the lineup to bolster his RBI and run totals. Cincy is not going to be a good team. Without slugger Nick Castellanos and some other veteran bats the team plans on trading away, India will be a man on an island. Take that into consideration.
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12.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
MIA
Let me introduce you to my second base draft target. Just 24 years old, Chisholm offers a tantalizing combination of power and speed. If he makes the necessary offseason adjustments to hit breaking pitches better, Chisholm will deliver an all-star season. He'll max out as a four category guy until he gets his average up, but for a guy ranked outside of the top 10 in nearly every set of 2B rankings, Chisholm looks like a potential draft steal. A 20/20 season is all but a lock.
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13.
Max Muncy
LAD
Muncy had a fantastic 2021 season with 36 homers, making it his third straight full season in which he reached the 35-homer plateau. But he tore the UCL in his elbow late in the year and missed the playoffs, and the fantasy baseball world has been holding its collective breath hoping that he'll be able to be ready for Opening Day this year. All signs - and Dave Roberts's comments - point to Muncy being available, and the addition of the DH to the National League can only help his cause. But although a torn UCL isn't nearly the same injury for a position player that it is for a pitcher, Muncy will still likely see some limitations and need some time off this year. Expect his usual excellent production, but knock off 10-20 games from his usual output.
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14.
Tommy Edman
STL
There's a lot to like here. The biggest draws are speed and multi-position (OF/2B) eligibility. Edman stole 30 bases last year, tying for fourth in MLB. Statcast says he's in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed. There's a little bit of power here, too. Edman hit only 11 HRs last year but clubbed 41 doubles. Edman has a .272 batting average over three seasons, and there could be room for growth there. His contact rate improved to 85% last year, and he sprays hits to both sides of the diamond. Edman doesn't take many walks, but that's a minor nit to pick.
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15.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
Cronenworth quietly had a very solid season for the Padres, totaling 21 home runs and exactly an .800 OPS. He's not an exciting player - he doesn't have a ton of power or speed and his batting average won't wow you. But he'll bat second for the Padres this year and so you can expect him to challenge the 94 runs scored he totaled last season. He also struck out just 14% of the time last year, which ranked in the top 10% in MLB, so he's unlikely to endure prolonged slumps, and consistent production goes further in today's fantasy landscape than it used to. Add to that his multi-position eligibility and Cronenworth makes an ideal part of any fantasy team, particularly one with daily lineup changes.
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16.
Chris Taylor
LAD
Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.
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17.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu seems like the poster child for the effect of the juiced ball. After drastically increasing his home run power over the previous few seasons, he hit just 10 home runs last year and his slugging percentage dropped to .362. LeMahieu had offseason surgery to repair a hernia, so perhaps his injury was bothering him longer than he let on and is responsible for his down year. But it's equally possible that at 33 years old, and without the juiced ball, LeMahieu just isn't as valuable a fantasy commodity as he used to be. Chances are, at the very least, that the days of a .300-plus batting average are gone, and now with likely low-teens home run potential, LeMahieu is more of a late-round pick whose main value is his position flexibility.
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18.
Ryan McMahon
COL
McMahon showed that his poor performance during the shortened 2020 season was an aberration, as his 2021 statline was nearly identical to the one he put up in 2019. His batting average (.254), OBP (.331) and slugging percentage (.449) were all within four points of his 2019 mark and his counting stats were similarly comparable. There's a chance that McMahon makes some gains this season - he's entering his "magical" age-27 season and he cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% last year. But, given how closely his last two full seasons have mirrored one another, you can likely bank on a .250-ish average, 24 home runs, 145 combined runs and RBI, and five steals. Draft him with those numbers in mind.
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19.
Ty France
SEA
Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.
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20.
Gleyber Torres
NYY
Forget about ever seeing Torres come close to the 38 home runs he hit in 2019. His power has come crashing back down to earth over the past two years, along with his batting average. He did rebound a bit in the second half, hitting .289 with six home runs and eight steals, but when those are the numbers that force you to have hope for his fantasy production, things aren't in great shape. He'll still bat in an outstanding lineup so his counting stats should have somewhat of a floor, but he's now an option you settle for, rather than target.
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21.
Jean Segura
PHI
Segura had a solid bounce-back season after 2020's blip, as his 14 home runs were the most he had hit since 2016. A 15-10 season is probably his ceiling at this point in his career, but he hasn't slipped from his .285 career batting average and he continues to avoid strikeouts with the best of them. With the addition of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, the Philadelphia lineup is as strong as it has been in years, and that should bolster Segura's counting stats. He's an option once you miss out on the top middle infielders.
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22.
Brendan Rodgers
COL
Rodgers finally provided some fantasy value last year, batting .284 with 15 home runs in just 102 games. The proclivity for stolen bases he showed at times in the minors is non-existent now, but he seemingly did enough to lock down an everyday job in the majors going forward. His putrid walk rate will keep both his OBP and his runs scored total in check, but he should help in batting average and approach 20 home runs. That's perfectly acceptable as a middle infielder, even if it comes with a low ceiling.
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23.
Kolten Wong
MIL
Wong played extremely well with the Brewers last year, hitting 14 home runs and stealing 12 bases in just 116 games. Wong is what he at this point - he'll chip in double digit steals and homers with a batting average that will help you, but there's no chance of a breakout season given his level of quality of contact. He should lead off for the Brewers so expect plenty of runs scored, and his totals should be enough to make him a passable middle infielder for fantasy purposes.
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24.
Jonathan Schoop
DET
Schoop is rarely talked about during prep season, but he has hit at least 21 home runs in each of his last five full seasons. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but that level of consistency in power from a second baseman is unusual and impressive. As usual, Schop was again among the league leaders in maximum exit velocity (117.1 MPH, a career high), and his hard hit rate was nearly five percentage points higher than his career average. The Tigers' lineup should be stronger this year with the addition of Javier Baez, and considering that Schoop is just 30 years old and has shown no signs of decline, there's every reason to expect his boring but stealthily productive numbers once again.
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25.
Eduardo Escobar
NYM
Escobar rarely gets much love from fantasy managers, probably because everything under the hood doesn't usually support his numbers. He almost always outperforms his expected statistics, and he offers no help in batting average or steals. But he does have plenty of pop (53 homers over his last two full seasons, at least 21 in each of his last four), and he's been a plus in runs scored and RBI despite playing on mediocre teams. He'll now be the everyday third baseman for the Mets, so managers can enjoy his dual eligibility, and his placement in the middle of a strong lineup should keep all his counting stats afloat. There's not a ton of upside with Escobar, but there's a high floor.
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26.
Kike Hernandez
BOS
Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.
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27.
Luis Urias
MIL
Urias exploded last year, putting up 23 homers with 149 combined runs and RBI. Just to put that into perspective, Urias's high in home runs before last year was four, and his best combined runs and RBI total was 51. Most of his production was backed up by the underlying data, as his hard-contact rates exploded. He'd be a prime sleeper but he's battling a quad injury that is going to shut him down until early April at least, so knock him down your draft board a bit with the injury news. Performance-wise, however, last year looks legitimate.
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28.
Jeff McNeil
NYM
McNeil's 2019 power outburst looks like a total anomaly, as he hit just seven home runs last year. His usual reliable batting average bottomed out to just .251 as he played through injury, but most of his underlying metrics looked strong. He'll rarely strike out, but there's just not that much that he can offer given his lack of power and speed. Worse still, he'll likely now bat in the bottom third of the Mets' batting order with the team's additions. There's little reason to consider McNeil in any capacity this year unless he somehow finds his power stroke.
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29.
Gavin Lux
LAD
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30.
Nick Madrigal
CHC
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31.
Adam Frazier
SEA
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32.
Josh Rojas
ARI
Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.
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33.
Jonathan Villar
SEA
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34.
Garrett Hampson
COL
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35.
Cesar Hernandez
WSH
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36.
David Fletcher
LAA
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37.
Andres Gimenez
CLE
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38.
Nick Solak
TEX
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39.
Nick Senzel
CIN
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40.
Luis Arraez
MIN
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41.
Joey Wendle
MIA
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42.
Abraham Toro
SEA
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43.
Josh Harrison
CWS
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44.
Ha-Seong Kim
SD
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45.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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46.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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47.
Vidal Brujan
TB
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48.
Tony Kemp
OAK
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49.
Jose Iglesias
COL
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50.
Jorge Mateo
BAL
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51.
Tommy La Stella
SF
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52.
Robinson Cano
FA
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53.
Brad Miller
TEX
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54.
Dylan Moore
SEA
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55.
Jurickson Profar
SD
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56.
Rougned Odor
BAL
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57.
Edmundo Sosa
PHI
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58.
Ramon Urias
BAL
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59.
Chad Pinder
OAK
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60.
Diego Castillo
PIT
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61.
Leury Garcia
CWS
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62.
Tyler Wade
NYY
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63.
Andy Ibanez
TEX
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64.
Nolan Gorman
STL
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65.
Alcides Escobar
FA
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66.
Kevin Newman
PIT
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67.
Luis Garcia
WSH
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68.
Michael Chavis
PIT
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69.
Willi Castro
DET
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70.
Jed Lowrie
FA
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71.
Cole Tucker
ARI
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72.
Nick Gordon
MIN
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73.
Niko Goodrum
HOU
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74.
Thairo Estrada
SF
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75.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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76.
Josh VanMeter
PIT
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77.
Sheldon Neuse
OAK
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78.
Christian Arroyo
BOS
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79.
Sergio Alcantara
ARI
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80.
Jack Lopez
DET
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81.
Donovan Solano
CIN
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82.
Rio Ruiz
FA
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83.
Luke Williams
MIA
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84.
Jon Berti
MIA
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85.
Jace Peterson
MIL
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86.
Mike Brosseau
MIL
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87.
Zach McKinstry
CHC
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88.
David Bote
CHC
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89.
Mauricio Dubon
HOU
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90.
Eric Sogard
FA
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91.
Marwin Gonzalez
NYY
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92.
Johan Camargo
PHI
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93.
Max Schrock
CIN
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94.
Hanser Alberto
LAD
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95.
Hoy Park
PIT
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96.
Alan Trejo
COL
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97.
Matt Duffy
LAA
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98.
Harold Castro
DET
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99.
Owen Miller
CLE
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100.
Shed Long Jr.
BAL
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101.
Matt Carpenter
NYY
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102.
Jack Mayfield
LAA
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103.
Joe Panik
FA
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104.
Jose Rojas
LAA
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105.
Isaac Paredes
TB
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106.
Yonny Hernandez
ARI
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107.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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108.
Wilmer Difo
ARI
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109.
Danny Mendick
CWS
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110.
Jose Peraza
BOS
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111.
Ronald Torreyes
FA
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112.
Ernie Clement
CLE
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113.
Jordy Mercer
FA
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114.
Jahmai Jones
LAD
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115.
Oswaldo Cabrera
NYY
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116.
Isan Diaz
SF
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117.
Nick Maton
PHI
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118.
Donovan Walton
SF
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119.
Rodolfo Castro
PIT
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120.
Lucius Fox
WSH
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121.
Pat Valaika
ATL
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122.
Jonathan Arauz
BAL
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123.
Michael Stefanic
LAA
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124.
Richard Palacios
CLE
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125.
Otto Lopez
TOR
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126.
Yairo Munoz
PHI
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127.
Tucupita Marcano
PIT
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128.
Alejo Lopez
CIN
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129.
Jose Devers
MIA
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130.
Kody Clemens
DET
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131.
Travis Demeritte
ATL
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132.
Ildemaro Vargas
WSH
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133.
Jake Hager
ARI
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134.
Max Moroff
FA
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135.
Trent Giambrone
CHC
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136.
Andy Burns
LAD
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137.
Jake Noll
WSH
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138.
Richie Palacios
CLE
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139.
Yolmer Sanchez
BOS
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140.
Andrew Young
WSH
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141.
Jonathan Aranda
TB
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142.
Kean Wong
LAA
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143.
Yolbert Sanchez
FA
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144.
Hernan Perez
ATL
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145.
Brendan Donovan
STL
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146.
Ivan Castillo
KC
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147.
Travis Blankenhorn
NYM
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148.
Omar Estevez
LAD
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149.
Robel Garcia
FA
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150.
Clay Dungan
KC
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151.
Adrian Sanchez
WSH
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152.
Domingo Leyba
SD
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153.
Freddy Galvis
FA
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154.
Logan Warmoth
TOR
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155.
Tim Lopes
COL
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156.
Ryan Goins
ATL
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157.
Drew Jackson
SF
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158.
Alex De Goti
HOU
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159.
Dee Strange-Gordon
FA
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160.
Tyler Ladendorf
FA
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161.
Richard Urena
FA
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162.
Franklin Barreto
FA
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163.
Stevie Wilkerson
FA
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164.
Forrest Wall
SEA
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