Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Jacob deGrom
SP - NYM
deGrom barely missed out on winning his third straight Cy Young Award last year, but it was yet another dominant season. For the third straight year, he came in with a WHIP under 1.00, an ERA under 2.50, and a strikeout percentage above 31%. deGrom is getting up there in age, but it's worth remembering that he has fewer miles on his arm than most pitcher entering their age-33 season, given that he didn't transition to pitching until late in his college career and missed significant time with injuries during his time in the minors. deGrom has shown no decline in his game, and should hopefully (finally) begin to pile on more wins this year pitching for a better team in front of an improved bullpen. He should be the first or second starting pitcher taken and is an obvious first-round pick.
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2.
Gerrit Cole
SP - NYY
Cole was pretty much as advertised in his first season with the Yankees. His ERA rose a tad, as did his home run rate as expected, and his strikeout rate fell a bit, though it remained at an absurdly high level. And, for the most part, all of his expected metrics fell off a tad from his 2019 season. But Cole's numbers from that season were so dominating that he could withstand plenty of regression and still be one of the best pitchers in fantasy. As such, he'll head into 2021 close to the way he came into the 2020 season: a dominant, high-strikeout, low-walk starter who will throw plenty of innings and who is more likely to finish as the top overall fantasy pitcher than he is to finish outside the top-10. It's a matter of personal preference between Cole and Jacob deGrom as the first pitcher off the board, but neither should fall outside the top-10 overall picks on draft day.
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3.
Shane Bieber
SP - CLE
Bieber took the huge gains he had made in 2019 and kicked the into hyperdrive en route to a Cy Young season. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and took his strikeout percentage to 41.1%, which ranked first among qualified starters. Everything was exceptional for Bieber, as he held batters to just a .167 batting average, barely allowed home runs, and earned eight wins in just 12 starts. He may struggle to again find wins given the Indians' depleted lineup, but there is nothing else to think twice about with Bieber. He's part of the ultra-elite tier in starting pitching with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole, and should be a first-round selection.
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4.
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Because the Dodgers wanted to closely watch Buehler's routine and workload, he got a late start to the shortened season, essentially using his first few starts as the end of his spring training. He also dealt with blisters late in the year. All that to say, Buehler's 36 2/3 regular-season innings are, for the most part, largely meaningless. He gave up a few more home runs and walked a few more batters than usual, and he won just a single game. But none of it matters. Value Buehler as you did after his 2019 season - as one of the true stud pitchers in the game. Once the big three of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber are off the board, Buehler should come under immediate consideration, as the type of starting pitcher who can be your fantasy ace.
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5.
Trevor Bauer
SP - FA
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6.
Yu Darvish
SP - SD
After a career year in 2020, Darvish moves to San Diego in a trade that shouldn't affect his strong 2021 outlook all that much. Despite his advancing age, Darvish built on the gains he had made over the second half of 2019, finishing with a 2.01 ER, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 31.3% strikeout rate. Darvish's walk rate has declined to a level once thought unattainable for the veteran, a mere 4.7%, which was in the top 8% of MLB in 2020. Although he'll be entering his age-35 season, there's simply nothing in Darvish's numbers, metrics, or statcast data that points to a decline. If you are desperate to find a negative, it's a move from the weak-hitting NL Central to the much stronger NL West, but that's hardly a reason to avoid Darvish. Draft him as an easy top-10 starter, and more like a top-5 option.
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7.
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
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8.
Max Scherzer
SP - WSH
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9.
Lucas Giolito
SP - CWS
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10.
Jack Flaherty
SP - STL
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11.
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
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12.
Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
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13.
Blake Snell
SP - SD
Snell moves to the Padres fresh off a solid year, in which he pitched to a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with a memorable early exit in the World Series. Snell has a checkered injury history and has pitched just 157 innings over the past two years, so don't expect him to be a big innings-eater in 2021. And, although he'll escape the dreaded AL East, he'll get a downgrade in park and defense, which largely makes the move a neutral one. All that said, Snell has plenty of talent as he's shown throughout his career, and should be able to pile up wins and strikeouts pitching for a strong Padres team. Draft him as an SP2 with upside.
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14.
Zac Gallen
SP - ARI
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15.
Brandon Woodruff
SP - MIL
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16.
Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
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17.
Stephen Strasburg
SP - WSH
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18.
Josh Hader
RP - MIL
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19.
Lance Lynn
SP - CWS
Lynn turned in another stellar year in 2020, leading MLB with 84 innings pitched, striking out plenty of batters, and keeping his walk rate and overall numbers in check. But there are a few warning signs under the hood, including his 4.19 FIP, his 4.34 xFIP, and his career-high 79.4% LOB rate. Of bigger concern is his trade to the White Sox and hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, particularly because Lynn had a 38.3% fly-ball rate in 2019 and a 42.3% fly-ball rate last year. That led to the worst HR/9 rate of his career and second-worst HR/FB rate (13.8%) in 2020. Countering those troublesome warning signs, however, is the fact that he'll be caught by perhaps the best pitch framer in baseball in Yasmani Grandal, and that will generally help with his numbers which, again, were excellent last year. Add it all up and Lynn's ERA should likely increase simply because of the additional home runs he'll allow if he can't turn around his trend in fly-ball rate, but Grandal's presence and Lynn's general aptitude on the mound should allow for another strong season and make him worthy of a selection as an SP2.
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20.
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
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21.
Dinelson Lamet
SP - SD
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22.
Aroldis Chapman
RP - NYY
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23.
Zach Plesac
SP - CLE
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24.
Tyler Glasnow
SP - TB
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25.
Hyun Jin Ryu
SP - TOR
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26.
Liam Hendriks
RP - CWS
Hendriks showed last year that his 2019 breakout season was not a fluke, as he improved on just about all of his numbers. Not only did he put up 14 saves in the shortened season, but he dropped his ERA to 1.78, his WHIP to 0.67, and his walk rate to just 3.3%. In short, there's nothing negative you can possibly take away from his 2020 season. Despite moving to a worse park with the White Sox, Hendriks is, without question one of the top closers in fantasy, and should be either the first or second (behind only Josh Hader) relief pitcher drafted.
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27.
Max Fried
SP - ATL
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28.
Kyle Hendricks
SP - CHC
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29.
Zack Greinke
SP - HOU
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30.
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Diaz's overall numbers bounced back in a monstrous way last season. He dropped his ERA from a bloated 5.59 in 2019 to a 1.75, and upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 45.5%. He was among the league leaders in nearly every expected statistic (batting average, slugging percentage wOBA, and ERA), and he cut his HR/9 rate from 2.33 to just 0.70. Diaz's walk rate actually regressed, however, as he issued free passes to nearly five batters per nine innings. That's not often a recipe for success from a closer, but Diaz can survive at that rate if he continues to keep the strikeouts up and limit the long balls. In the end, Diaz does carry some risk given his history, but he should be drafted as one of the upper echelon closers in the game, if not a touch behind the truly elite options.
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31.
Zack Wheeler
SP - PHI
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32.
Raisel Iglesias
RP - LAA
Iglesias bounced back from a sub-par 2019 to post an excellent 2020 season, with a 2.74 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and the lowest walk rate of his career. He'll now move to the Angels where he'll keep his role as a closer. Iglesias's numbers should be solid as usual, and his precise value should hinge on whether the Angels use him in more of a multi-inning role like the Reds historically did (which limited Iglesias's save totals), or deploy him as a more traditional ninth-inning option. Either way, Iglesias will be the Angels' stopper, and hence, should be drafted as a strong top-10 RP option.
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33.
Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
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34.
Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
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35.
Ian Anderson
SP - ATL
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36.
Jose Berrios
SP - MIN
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37.
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
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38.
James Karinchak
RP - CLE
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39.
Kenley Jansen
RP - LAD
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40.
Patrick Corbin
SP - WSH
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41.
Jesus Luzardo
SP,RP - OAK
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42.
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
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43.
Taylor Rogers
RP - MIN
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44.
Framber Valdez
SP,RP - HOU
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45.
Ryan Pressly
RP - HOU
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46.
Brad Hand
RP - FA
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47.
Dylan Bundy
SP - LAA
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48.
Pablo Lopez
SP - MIA
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49.
Sixto Sanchez
SP - MIA
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50.
Julio Urias
SP,RP - LAD
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51.
Charlie Morton
SP - ATL
Morton's 2020 numbers were poor, without question. He was limited to just 38 regular season innings because of a shoulder injury, and pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. His velocity was way down early in the season (when he got hit hard) and trickled up after he returned, but he got back to his normal 95 MPH fastball in the postseason and totaled a 2.70 ERA. Now 37 and with the Braves, the question is whether fantasy managers can write off Morton's down 2020 season considering his sterling post-season, or whether his age and injury history means they should avoid him. In reality, the answer is neither. Morton should still have gas left in the tank considering his playoff run, but should only be drafted as a value, meaning no earlier than a low-end SP3. Grab him there, at which point the risk-reward balance should reach an equilibrium.
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52.
German Marquez
SP - COL
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53.
Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Musgrove has been a popular sleeper the last two seasons and now that he's been traded to the Padres, his ADP is surely going to rise. In 2019, Musgrove continued to improve as a pitcher, upping his strikeout rate and adding velocity. But his 2020 season looked like a step back, until he returned from the IL strong, including finishing his season with back-to-back scoreless outings while getting back some of the lost zip on his fastball. Overall, Musgrove's 2020 numbers suggest a breakout waiting to happen, as he built significantly on his gains in 2019, increasing his strikeout rate to 33.1%. His chances for wins should improve dramatically in San Diego, and he's a fine fourth starter with upside.
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54.
Nick Anderson
RP - TB
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55.
Sandy Alcantara
SP - MIA
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56.
Marco Gonzales
SP - SEA
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57.
Mike Soroka
SP - ATL
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58.
Devin Williams
RP - MIL
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59.
Aaron Civale
SP - CLE
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60.
Frankie Montas
SP - OAK
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61.
David Price
SP - LAD
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62.
Dustin May
SP,RP - LAD
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63.
Shohei Ohtani
SP - LAA
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64.
Alex Colome
RP - FA
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65.
Chris Sale
SP - BOS
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66.
Kevin Gausman
SP,RP - SF
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67.
Chris Bassitt
SP - OAK
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68.
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CHC
As a whole, Kimbrel's 2020 numbers were abysmal. A 5.28 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a walk rate of 17.4%. And yet, there were some encouraging signs. Not only did his strikeout rate bounce back to 40.6%, but he was actually an elite pitcher after his first four outings. How elite? He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and stuck out 53.1% of the batters he faced. It wasn't perfect, as Kimbrel still walked five batters per nine innings over that stretch. But he showed that he still has some has left in the tank. Although he never reclaimed the closer's job despite his strong finish, it's a good bet that the Cubs hand him the ninth-inning role to start, as they try to rebuild his trade value in the final year of his deal. That means Kimbrel should at least get save chances for the first several weeks of the season, and, as such, should be drafted as low-end second closer with just a modicum of upside.
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69.
Triston McKenzie
SP - CLE
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70.
Dallas Keuchel
SP - CWS
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71.
Andrew Heaney
SP - LAA
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72.
Tony Gonsolin
SP,RP - LAD
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73.
Eduardo Rodriguez
SP - BOS
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74.
Brady Singer
SP - KC
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75.
Cristian Javier
SP - HOU
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76.
Rafael Montero
RP - SEA
Montero wound up closing for the Rangers and totaling eight saves in 2020, but it wasn't a particularly special season. His hard-hit rate and walk-rate increased from his strong 2019 season, and he totaled a 4.08 ERA. Now with Seattle, Montero's best asset may be his lack of competition for the closer's role, as Seattle has struggled for several seasons to find a reliable ninth-inning option. Draft Montero as a mid-tier closer, who you're taking more for his job security than his spectacular numbers.
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77.
Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
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78.
Matt Barnes
RP - BOS
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79.
John Means
SP - BAL
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80.
Zach Eflin
SP - PHI
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81.
Seth Lugo
SP,RP - NYM
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82.
Kirby Yates
RP - TOR
Yates was one of the most dominant relievers in the game in 2019, but missed almost the entire 2020 season and had surgery in August to remove bone chips from his elbow. He'll now head to the Blue Jays where he'll serve as their closer. Yates is older than you think - he'll be 34 years old by Opening Day - and any pitcher coming off elbow surgery is a risk. But given that he had a 42% strikeout rate and excellent control before his lost 2020 season, he offers plenty of upside. With few reliable closers outside of a handful of top options, Yates makes an intriguing RP pick who could offer a major return on investment if he shows he's back to form in the spring.
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83.
Jose Urquidy
SP - HOU
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84.
Jameson Taillon
SP - PIT
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85.
Zach Davies
SP - CHC
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86.
Drew Pomeranz
SP,RP - SD
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87.
Nate Pearson
SP - TOR
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88.
Marcus Stroman
SP - NYM
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89.
Michael Pineda
SP - MIN
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90.
Hector Neris
RP - PHI
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91.
James Paxton
SP - FA
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92.
Sean Manaea
SP - OAK
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93.
Mark Melancon
RP - FA
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94.
Trevor Rosenthal
RP - FA
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95.
Corey Kluber
SP - NYY
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96.
Kwang Hyun Kim
SP,RP - STL
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97.
Justus Sheffield
SP - SEA
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98.
Nathan Eovaldi
SP,RP - BOS
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99.
Ryan Yarbrough
SP,RP - TB
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100.
Richard Rodriguez
RP - PIT
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101.
Drew Smyly
SP - ATL
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102.
Brandon Kintzler
RP - FA
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103.
Jordan Hicks
RP - STL
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104.
Diego Castillo
SP,RP - TB
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105.
Griffin Canning
SP - LAA
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106.
Elieser Hernandez
SP,RP - MIA
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107.
Jordan Romano
RP - TOR
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108.
Michael Kopech
SP - CWS
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109.
Jordan Montgomery
SP - NYY
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110.
Chris Martin
RP - ATL
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111.
Matthew Boyd
SP - DET
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112.
Dane Dunning
SP - TEX
Dunning had an interesting seven-start run in 2020. He started out relying heavily on his outstanding slider and his fastball, which led to a strong swinging strike rate and plenty of punchouts in his first few starts. He then abandoned that approach to focus more on his changeup, which led to him missing fewer bats and being less successful. Now with the Rangers, Dunning should get a chance to compete for a rotation spot right out of the gate. He has the tools and skills necessary to be successful, and the draft capital necessary to acquire him should be minimal. He's worth a late-round pick in nearly all formats.
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113.
Taijuan Walker
SP - FA
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114.
Stefan Crichton
RP - ARI
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115.
MacKenzie Gore
SP - SD
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116.
Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
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117.
Giovanny Gallegos
RP - STL
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118.
Aaron Bummer
RP - CWS
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119.
Spencer Turnbull
SP - DET
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120.
Domingo German
SP - NYY
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121.
Mike Minor
SP - KC
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122.
Yimi Garcia
RP - MIA
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123.
Brad Keller
SP - KC
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124.
Masahiro Tanaka
SP - FA
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125.
Pete Fairbanks
RP - TB
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126.
Alex Reyes
RP - STL
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127.
Brandon Workman
RP - FA
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128.
Roberto Osuna
RP - FA
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129.
Bryan Garcia
RP - DET
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130.
Mike Mayers
RP - LAA
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131.
Tanner Houck
SP - BOS
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132.
Archie Bradley
RP - PHI
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133.
Jake Odorizzi
SP - FA
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134.
Noah Syndergaard
SP - NYM
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135.
Tarik Skubal
SP - DET
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136.
Justin Verlander
SP - HOU
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137.
Luis Severino
SP - NYY
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138.
Will Smith
RP - ATL
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139.
Freddy Peralta
SP,RP - MIL
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140.
Yusei Kikuchi
SP - SEA
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141.
Tanner Rainey
RP - WSH
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142.
Caleb Smith
SP - ARI
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143.
Deivi Garcia
SP - NYY
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144.
Jake Diekman
RP - OAK
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145.
Amir Garrett
RP - CIN
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146.
Mitch Keller
SP - PIT
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147.
Adam Wainwright
SP - FA
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148.
Madison Bumgarner
SP - ARI
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149.
Greg Holland
RP - KC
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150.
Daniel Bard
SP,RP - COL
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151.
Daniel Hudson
RP - WSH
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152.
Tejay Antone
SP,RP - CIN
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153.
Hunter Harvey
RP - BAL
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154.
Casey Mize
SP - DET
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155.
Robbie Ray
SP - TOR
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156.
Alec Mills
SP,RP - CHC
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157.
Josh Staumont
RP - KC
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158.
Josh Lindblom
SP,RP - MIL
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159.
Jose Leclerc
SP,RP - TEX
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160.
Jon Gray
SP - COL
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161.
Rich Hill
SP - FA
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162.
J.B. Wendelken
RP - OAK
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163.
Luke Weaver
SP - ARI
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164.
Ken Giles
RP - FA
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165.
Dean Kremer
SP - BAL
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166.
Zack Britton
RP - NYY
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167.
Tyler Rogers
RP - SF
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168.
Michael Lorenzen
RP - CIN
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169.
Spencer Howard
SP - PHI
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170.
Chad Green
SP,RP - NYY
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171.
Dylan Cease
SP - CWS
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172.
David Peterson
SP - NYM
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173.
Ross Stripling
SP,RP - TOR
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174.
Garrett Richards
SP - BOS
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175.
Adbert Alzolay
SP - CHC
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176.
Johnny Cueto
SP - SF
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177.
A.J. Puk
RP - OAK
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178.
Keegan Akin
SP - BAL
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179.
Tyler Matzek
SP - ATL
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180.
Lucas Sims
SP,RP - CIN
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181.
Austin Gomber
SP,RP - STL
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182.
Rick Porcello
SP - FA
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183.
J.A. Happ
SP - MIN
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184.
Adrian Houser
SP,RP - MIL
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185.
Trevor May
RP - NYM
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186.
Blake Treinen
RP - LAD
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187.
Carlos Martinez
SP,RP - STL
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188.
Danny Duffy
SP - KC
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189.
Dakota Hudson
SP - STL
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190.
Tyler Duffey
RP - MIN
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191.
Kyle Wright
SP - ATL
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192.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
SP,RP - STL
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193.
Rafael Dolis
RP - TOR
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194.
Randy Dobnak
SP - MIN
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195.
Gregory Soto
SP,RP - DET
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196.
Luis Patino
SP,RP - TB
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197.
Merrill Kelly
SP - ARI
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198.
Brendan McKay
SP - TB
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199.
Tomoyuki Sugano
INT
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200.
Brent Suter
SP,RP - MIL
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201.
Garrett Crochet
RP - CWS
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202.
Logan Webb
SP - SF
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203.
Brusdar Graterol
RP - LAD
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204.
Kendall Graveman
SP,RP - SEA
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205.
Emilio Pagan
RP - SD
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206.
Carlos Rodon
SP - FA
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207.
Cal Quantrill
SP,RP - CLE
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208.
Kyle Freeland
SP - COL
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209.
Anthony DeSclafani
SP - SF
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210.
Trevor Rogers
SP,RP - MIA
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211.
Matt Foster
RP - CWS
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212.
Jesse Hahn
RP - KC
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213.
Forrest Whitley
SP - HOU
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214.
Vince Velasquez
SP,RP - PHI
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215.
Clarke Schmidt
SP - NYY
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216.
Andrew Miller
RP - STL
|
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217.
Kyle Gibson
SP,RP - TEX
|
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218.
Jose Cisnero
RP - DET
|
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219.
Mike Foltynewicz
SP - FA
|
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220.
Joey Lucchesi
SP - NYM
|
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221.
Matt Magill
RP - SEA
|
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222.
Tyler Clippard
SP,RP - FA
|
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223.
Tony Watson
RP - FA
|
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224.
Sean Doolittle
RP - FA
|
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225.
Ty Buttrey
RP - LAA
|
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226.
Jonathan Hernandez
RP - TEX
|
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227.
Joakim Soria
RP - FA
|
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228.
Kris Bubic
SP - KC
|
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229.
Mike Clevinger
SP - SD
|
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230.
Dan Altavilla
RP - SD
|
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231.
Emmanuel Clase
RP - CLE
|
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232.
JT Brubaker
SP - PIT
|
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233.
Yonny Chirinos
SP,RP - TB
|
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234.
Kevin Ginkel
RP - ARI
|
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235.
Hansel Robles
RP - MIN
|
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236.
Adrian Morejon
SP,RP - SD
|
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237.
Yusmeiro Petit
RP - FA
|
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238.
Alex Wood
SP,RP - SF
|
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239.
Corbin Martin
SP - ARI
|
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240.
Cole Hamels
SP - FA
|
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241.
Joe Jimenez
RP - DET
|
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242.
Jon Lester
SP - WSH
|
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243.
Josh Fleming
SP - TB
|
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244.
Jose Quintana
SP - LAA
|
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245.
Ian Kennedy
RP - FA
|
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246.
Keone Kela
RP - FA
|
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247.
Craig Stammen
RP - SD
|
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248.
Josh James
RP - HOU
|
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249.
Shane Greene
RP - FA
|
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250.
Jeremy Jeffress
RP - FA
|
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251.
Matt Manning
SP - DET
|
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252.
Steven Matz
SP - NYM
|
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253.
Antonio Senzatela
SP - COL
|
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254.
Bruce Zimmermann
SP - BAL
|
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255.
Tommy Hunter
RP - FA
|
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256.
Mychal Givens
RP - COL
|
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257.
Devin Smeltzer
SP,RP - MIN
|
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258.
Scott Barlow
RP - KC
|
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259.
Jonathan Loaisiga
SP,RP - NYY
|
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260.
Brett Anderson
SP - FA
|
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261.
Joe Smith
RP - HOU
|
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262.
Matt Strahm
SP,RP - SD
|
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263.
Ryan Brasier
RP - BOS
|
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264.
Anthony Bass
RP - MIA
|
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265.
Jeff Samardzija
SP - FA
|
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266.
Reyes Moronta
RP - SF
|
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267.
Scott Oberg
RP - COL
|
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268.
Anibal Sanchez
SP - FA
|
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269.
Justin Dunn
SP - SEA
|
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270.
Chris Archer
SP - FA
|
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271.
Reynaldo Lopez
SP - CWS
|
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272.
Bryse Wilson
SP - ATL
|
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273.
Chad Kuhl
SP - PIT
|
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274.
Julio Teheran
SP - FA
|
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275.
Bud Norris
SP,RP - FA
|
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276.
Daniel Norris
SP,RP - DET
|
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277.
Jose Alvarado
RP - PHI
|
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278.
Sergio Romo
RP - FA
|
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279.
Homer Bailey
SP - FA
|
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280.
A.J. Minter
RP - ATL
|
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281.
Enoli Paredes
RP - HOU
|
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282.
Darwinzon Hernandez
RP - BOS
|
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283.
Nick Pivetta
SP,RP - BOS
|
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284.
Rowan Wick
RP - CHC
|
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285.
Felix Pena
SP,RP - LAA
|
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286.
Austin Voth
SP - WSH
|
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287.
Jaime Barria
SP,RP - LAA
|
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288.
Brent Honeywell Jr.
SP - TB
|
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289.
Mike Fiers
SP - FA
|
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290.
Michael King
SP,RP - NYY
|
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291.
Edward Cabrera
RP - MIA
|
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292.
Nick Wittgren
RP - CLE
|
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293.
Logan Gilbert
SP - SEA
|
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294.
Steven Brault
SP,RP - PIT
|
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295.
Trevor Williams
SP - FA
|
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296.
Tyler Anderson
SP - FA
|
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297.
Ryan Helsley
RP - STL
|