Fantasy Football Player Notes

If we knew Carson would be healthy the entire season, he'd be ranked as a top-12 running back. But we don't. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Seahawks backfield, as Carson is coming off a season-ending hip injury, while Rashaad Penny is recovering from a torn ACL, and they drafted DeeJay Dallas in the fourth round of the draft. You'll want to pay close attention to this backfield as we approach fantasy draft season.

It was a tale of two different seasons for Lockett, as he started out the year hot, but then had an injury derail his production. Clearly, he was affected by a serious shin contusion that had him in the hospital. I won't pretend that D.K. Metcalf started removing some of his elite target upside, but even Lockett's efficiency went down the tube. Combining Lockett's games under Brian Schottenheimer prior to the shin injury, he's totaled 116 receptions for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns over a span of 25 games. That's pretty dang good. Knowing that I'm projecting a rise in pass attempts for the Seahawks overall, Lockett should see 110-plus targets as long as he's healthy, a number that goes very far with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. Seriously, stop talking about regression when it comes to Wilson's receivers. First it was Doug Baldwin. Regression never really happened. Then there was Lockett. Next, it'll be Metcalf. Lockett is perfectly fine as your WR2. He's the safer of the Seahawks receivers because his role is locked in. If the Seahawks were to sign or bring in someone like Josh Gordon/Antonio Brown, that would affect Metcalf a lot more.

Remember when most people said Metcalf was "raw" and could only run the go-route? Or how about he had no agility because his three-cone drill was bad? Or how about that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, and Andy Isabella went before him? Yeah, me too. Despite having a knee scope done during the last preseason, Metcalf managed to make it back for Week 1 where he racked up 89 yards on six targets. He wound up tallying nine games with more than 60 yards, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. That doesn't even count his playoff game against the Eagles where he broke the rookie record for receiving yards (160) in a playoff game. There was progression in his routes as the year went on, and he's been working out with Russell Wilson at his house this offseason. At 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds, the ceiling is endless with Metcalf, who has true WR1 potential as soon as this year. The biggest concern is that the Seahawks were looking into Antonio Brown, which tells me they may add another perimeter wide receiver. It would directly impact his target upside if that were to happen, and not as much Tyler Lockett. Because of that, Lockett is the safer pick this year, though it's Metcalf who has the higher ceiling.

The knock on Wilson has forever been "he doesn't throw the ball enough!" That argument only holds so much water, as Wilson has now finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in four of the last six seasons. Let me tell you... if Wilson attempted 600 pass attempts, he'd under consideration as the first quarterback off the board. Despite topping out at 553 attempts, Wilson has thrown at least 31 touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. There's been just one season he's averaged less than 7.7 yards per attempt. He's hit a 6.0 percent touchdown percentage in 6-of-8 career seasons. He's the good stuff. Can we anticipate more pass attempts? Sure we can. The first year under Brian Schottenheimer they threw the ball just 427 times. The second year (2019), that number went up to 516 attempts. Why did that happen? Not because the run game wasn't effective. It certainly was. It's because the Seahawks defense has trended in the wrong direction, which bodes well for Wilson's pass attempts. They did just trade for Jamal Adams, which will certainly help matters, but their front seven doesn't generate a whole lot of pressure. If they lose Jadeveon Clowney, it only gets worse, but I'd consider 516 attempts the floor for Wilson in 2020. When you add in the growth/chemistry between Wilson and D.K. Metcalf, the ceiling continues to grow. Don't forget that Metcalf was a rookie last year, while Tyler Lockett dealt with injuries over the second half of the season. I can't say Wilson gets to 600 pass attempts, but we don't need him to in order to produce elite numbers, as we've seen. Provided he's healthy, his floor is likely a top-six quarterback, something not many can say.

After ranking 12th in rushing yards last year, Hyde accepted a one-year deal with the Seahawks. It seems that he's insurance for Rashaad Penny, who's expected to start the year on the PUP list. But you never know with Pete Carroll, as he's not afraid to shake things up. If Chris Carson struggles coming off his hip injury, or fumbles again, we could see Hyde in a 15-touch role. He's worth a pick in one of the last few rounds.

Based on where Olsen's targets took place last year, he scored 20.5 fewer fantasy points than the average tight end would've, which was the worst mark in football, just ahead of Trey Burton. He's now 35 years old and wants to go to the booth soon enough. He was the Seahawks insurance to Will Dissly. Once they know Dissly is healthy, it's back to fantasy irrelevance for Olsen. If Dissly isn't ready for the start of the year, Olsen could have some streaming appeal.

Myers' first year in Seattle was a disappointment coming off his stellar 2018 with the Jets. He missed four extra points, and was only 6-of-11 from 40-plus yards. Kicking for Seattle's offense should be a good thing, however, as the Seahawks have a solid offense but often like to play conservatively. But, at this point, Myers is just one of a handful of low-end kickers you can consider drafting in a 12-team league.

Injuries have sadly derailed the production for Dissly, but when on the field, he's been ridiculously good. He's only played 10 games, but in those games, he's posted TE1-type numbers in 60 percent of them. That's the same percentage as George Kittle in his career. Again, it's a small sample size, but as the 31st tight end off the board? He's well worth the risk. And no, don't worry about Greg Olsen.

It seems that Penny will start the year on the PUP list after tearing his ACL towards the end of last year. That would knock him out for at least the first six weeks, which is not something fantasy owners should be looking to draft. Even when he returns, we don't know where he stands on the depth chart, as they still have Chris Carson, then drafted DeeJay Dallas in the fourth round, and also signed Carlos Hyde in free agency. Unless you have an IR spot, Penny should be on waivers to start the season.

It's kind of crazy how some wide receivers are just glued to elite quarterbacks no matter where they go. Dorsett fits that bill after playing with Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and now Russell Wilson. With no offseason, it may be difficult for him to get the nod over Moore, but if he did, his skill set would probably fit very well with Wilson. I say that because Wilson completed 48.2 percent of his passes over 20 yards and had a QB Rating of 119.2 on them. While in New England last year, he saw 17 deep balls, though only five were catchable. He caught all of them for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Both are battling for the No. 3 in targets, so it's not like either will be a weekly producer, but Dorsett is the one with the better pedigree, and his skill set aligns with Wilson's strength. If Lockett were to miss time, Dorsett actually played very well in the slot for the Patriots, catching 13-of-14 targets for 218 yards and three touchdowns. He's someone I've snagged quite a few times at the end of best ball drafts.

Moore took a step back in 2019, catching just 17 passes and scoring two touchdowns. Now, he'll fall out of even three-receiver sets, with Phillip Dorsett on board. Even with an injury in front of him, it seems doubtful that Moore would be worth rostering, so ignore him on draft day and likely beyond.

Hollister made the most of his opportunity to get into the starting lineup last year, putting up a 41-349-3 line in 11 games. Unfortunately for Hollister, the Seahawks brought in Greg Olsen this offseason, and Will Dissly looks like he should be ready to contribute early in the season. That puts plenty of roadblocks between Hollister and fantasy-relevance, so he can be firmly ignored on draft day.