Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I'm also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he's a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.

It's a good bet that the Seahawks' running game will thrive under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run game coordinator Rick Dennison. The Kubiak-Dennison combo has been ground-game gold for years dating back to Dennison's pairing with Klint's dad, Gary Kubiak, in the '90s. The Seahawks' running scheme will utilize a lot of outside zone, and Kenneth Walker has been ultra-efficient on outside zone runs early in his career. Walker has been productive when healthy during his time in Seattle, but he's missed 10 games over his first three NFL seasons.

Zach Charbonnet has been good for the Seahawks whenever he's gotten an opportunity. He averaged 3.35 yards after contact per carry last year and forced 32 missed tackles on only 135 rushing attempts. When Kenneth Walker was hurt, Charbonnet had a two-touchdown game against Miami and another two touchdowns against Arizona. Charbonnet has been good as a pass catcher, with 75 catches over his first two seasons. Charbonnet is one of the most valuable handcuff running backs, and he might even offer some stand-alone value.

Cooper Kupp has dealt with injuries (ankle/thigh) over the last three seasons, which have limited to no more than 12 games in a season since his legendary 2021 season. If he can somehow manage to stay healthy in 2025, he might prove that he has more left in the tank than the general consensus believes. Last year, in the games in which he played at least 55% of the snaps, he drew a 24.7% target share, averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game with 2.15 yards per route run, a 31.6% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). In that sample, he averaged 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the WR18 last season. During those games, he had a 0.097 separation score and a 14.5% route win rate overall, which, among 112 qualifying receivers last season, would have ranked 31st and 42nd. Those are passable numbers, but what really opened my eyes were his 0.139 separation score and 17.6% route win rate as a boundary receiver. Those marks would have ranked 16th and 24th among the same sample of wideouts. With his injury history and the downgrade in quarterback play from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold, Kupp is best viewed as a WR4 with some upside.

Sam Darnold was the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year. Let's get this out of the way VERY QUICKLY...Darnold set career marks in every category imaginable last year, and I don't see anything close to that production repeating in 2025. Yes, last season, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked sixth in yards per attempt and passer rating and third in CPOE, but also, when we look closer, the real Sam Darnold can still be found. Despite those rousing stats I mentioned a second ago, Darnold was also 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and he had the ninth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. With his move to Seattle, he loses Kevin O'Connell, faces a downgrade at offensive line and skill players, and will likely operate in a more run-centric offense. All of this leads to Darnold falling back into QB2 territory in 2025.

Seattle has an average schedule, but they do have the third-biggest improvement year over year. Last year, the Seahawks' D/ST was the fantasy football de jour as the DST 5 through 17 weeks. This year, they are back in conversation. A matchup against San Francisco at home in Week 1 is OK, but Weeks 2-3 are salivating against the Steelers and Saints.

Second-round rookie Elijah Arroyo will be given every chance to replace perennial underachiever Noah Fant as Seattle's top tight end. One of the more athletic members of this year's talented rookie TE class, Arroyo had 595 receiving yards and seven TD catches in his final college season at the University of Miami-Fla., then stood out in Senior Bowl practices. A major rookie-year impact seems unlikely, but Arroyo is certainly worth monitoring.