Fantasy Football Player Notes

Metcalf has seen his fantasy production decline in three straight seasons after opening his first two seasons as the WR10 and WR20 in fantasy points per game. He found himself sitting at WR24 after the 2022 season. Metcalf's finish was fueled by three massive games in which he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He was a rollercoaster wide receiver who also had six weeks as a WR55 or lower in weekly scoring. Metcalf's overall metrics in 2022 still put him in the WR2 bucket when projecting forward to 2023. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), tenth in air yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run. Metcalf was also 12th in deep target and second in red zone targets among receivers.

Tyler Lockett kept trucking along in his age-30 season last year, finishing with another stellar stat line. He was the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.8% target share (26th) and 30.5% air yard share (24th). Lockett showed little signs of slowing down, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He was also second in open rate behind only Diontae Johnson (per ESPN analytics). Lockett should have at least one more WR2 season left in the tank, but adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba could hurt his raw target volume. Lockett is a borderline WR2/3.

Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks' pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle's usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let's discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF's deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don't plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don't want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn't been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he's never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he's ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.