Fantasy Football Player Notes

Did Mike Evans fall off the age cliff last year or, at the very least, begin his descent? It does appear that way on paper. Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. All these volume metrics are nice, but they will all take a hit with Tom Brady gone. His efficiency metrics are the real tale of the tape, as he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). With declining metrics and an uncertain quarterback situation in Tampa Bay, Evans is a WR3.

Chris Godwin had a productive 2022 in the shadow of his late-season 2021 ACL/MCL tear. Godwin was the WR15 in fantasy points per game as the Buccaneers' insane passing volume elevated him. Godwin was 31st in target share (21.8%) and tenth in raw target volume (142) while only playing 15 games. The volume covered up his efficiency ugliness in 2022. He was neutered into being a low aDOT (5.6, 99th) receiver who also ranked 38th in yards per route run. Godwin was 96th in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. He was 68th among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Entering his age 27 season with uncertainty at quarterback (Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield...WOOF!) and in the passing volume department, Godwin is a scary WR3.