Fantasy Football Player Notes

What in the world happened to Beckham in 2019? If we were replaying last season, we wouldn't be drafting him until the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. But that's where fantasy players go wrong. That's a one-year sample size. We had 59 career games prior to that we can look at where he was the best game-by-game fantasy wide receiver of all-time. Which do you trust? Everyone on the Browns struggled last year and knowing that Beckham was playing through a hernia only added to the disappointment. 2019 was the first year he'd posted WR2 or better numbers in less than 66.7 percent of his games (which is ridiculous). We know the offense is changing, but that also comes with some concerns. While in Minnesota last year, Kevin Stefanski's wide receivers combined for just 201 targets and a 43.1 percent target share, which ranked as the fourth-lowest mark in football. Stefon Diggs, who is also very talented, saw just 94 targets in 15 games last year. While I don't expect the Browns to be as run-heavy as the Vikings were, it's an added level of concern. But here's the thing - it's not like a lot of the wide receivers in the 10-15 range don't come with similar issues or question marks. Beckham has done it before and has true No. 1 overall wide receiver upside. He's in the prime of his career at 27 years old and his only competition for targets (Jarvis Landry) is coming off hip surgery. Getting him as your high-end WR2 is worth it.

Did you know there have been just three wide receivers who've finished as a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last five years? Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Landry. The way he got there in 2019 wasn't ideal (posted WR2 or better numbers just 31.3 percent of the time), but it was a horrendous offense. The issue now is that he's coming off hip surgery this offseason. While it seems like his recovery has gone well, that could be something to hold him back from being as consistent as he's been the last few years in Cleveland. Another hurdle is the limited targets that may be available in Stefanski's offense. The Vikings receivers combined for just 201 targets last year, and it would appear the Browns are trying to recreate that offense with both Austin Hooper and David Njoku in 2TE sets, while using the run game heavily. There's been just two times in Landry's career where he's finished with more than 7.0 yards per target, and he's scored more than six touchdowns just once. If he's cut down anywhere close to the 100-110-target mark, which seems very likely, it's really going to hurt his fantasy impact. Because of that, he's a WR3, and one who might be a bit dicier than in past years.