Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Justin Jefferson had a horrible runout as the WR28 in fantasy points per game (WR14 in expected fantasy points per game). Obviously, a ton of his season was impacted by the level of quarterback play, but Jefferson also slid to 36th in separation score and 38th in route win rate (among 109 qualifying receivers, per Fantasy Points Data). A lot of the blame can fall at the feet of Minny's quarterback room last year, but not all of it, considering the per-route metrics as well as the fact that Jefferson was tied for the sixth-most drops. Yes, he was also 78th in catchable target rate, so 2025 was a mixed bag with some blame on both sides of the aisle. Last year, Jefferson was still sixth in target share (28.5%) and seventh in first-read share (35.1%), so we should all expect the Minnesota passing attack to run through their alpha wide receiver again in 2026. He could easily return to being a top 10 fantasy wideout as he has been every year of his NFL career (outside of 2025), but there's still some risk with Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy throwing him the ball this season.

Last year, as the quarterback play in Minnesota cratered, Jordan Addison had a career-worst season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Addison had only a 17.4% target share with 43.6 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, a 22.1% first-read share, and 0.065 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers jump off the page or are convincing enough to dive back in on Addison with Kyler Murray as the starting quarterback for 2026. Addison could have a bounce-back season and still not move the needle for fantasy purposes as a matchup-based flex option or WR3/4. I'm avoiding Addison this season.

After a slow start last season (in Weeks 7-18), Jauan Jennings was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.5% target share with 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, 0.095 first downs per route run, and a 28.9% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are all decent to strong metrics, but here's the problem. Jennings is no longer with the 49ers. He signed with the Vikings this offseason and profiles as the third or fourth option in the passing attack that is led by Kyler Murray. Murray isn't exactly a passer who has shown he can support three weapons (or more) on a weekly basis for fantasy. Jennings could have some flex appeal and be a bye-week fill-in for teams during the season, but I don't want to draft him this year and count on him as a weekly flex option.