Fantasy Football Player Notes

He's a very good football player and one who can help you win fantasy weeks... but is he a No. 1 wide receiver on fantasy teams? In my Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, I highlighted the fact that he's been a WR2 or better in just 44.1 percent of his career games, while someone like Julio Jones has posted WR1 numbers in 42.4 percent of his games. Hill averaged just 7.4 targets per game last year, a number that will need to come up for him to be a more consistent fantasy option. Can it happen? Absolutely. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not help that, nor will the supposed increase in Mecole Hardman offensive snaps. There were just two games in 2019 where Hill saw double-digit targets, which again, limits his consistency. By comparison, Davante Adams has averaged 11.0 targets per game over the last two years while Julio Jones saw 10-plus targets in 7-of-15 games in 2019. If you want to draft Hill as your WR1, I have no issue with it, but understand that you'll need to balance your roster throughout the remainder of the draft. Robert Woods is someone that immediately comes to mind as consistent and reliable, and would make a perfect complement to someone like Hill.

I understand the want to draft Hardman, I really do. But has the hype train gotten out of control? He's played four years of college and pro football, and here are his touch totals (most recent first): 30, 40, 33, and 0. He's been highly efficient on almost all of those touches, but at some point, you have to ask yourself why he's not getting more. Seriously, his efficiency last year was out of this world. Here are some stats for you from my 175 interesting facts from the 2019 football season article:
- Among wide receivers who've seen at least 30 targets, Mecole Hardman's 13.1 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
- Mecole Hardman averaged 2.77 PPR points per target in 2019, which ranked as the fourth-best mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
Pretty nuts, right? I'm not arguing his efficiency at all. His performance last year was very Tyreek Hill-esque, and I could see him breaking out similarly to Hill, "if" Hill wasn't on the field with him. It certainly helps that the Chiefs are taking him off special teams to focus on offense, as that's the same thing they did with Hill a few years ago. Drafting him as a WR4/5 could be worth the reward but understand that he might be the No. 5 option in the passing game behind Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Sammy Watkins. For a team that hasn't thrown the ball more than 583 times in Andy Reid's entire time in Kansas City, that directly impacts Hardman, even if he is uber efficient. If he starts playing more snaps than Watkins, that's when you'll see me completely buy in.

Does anyone else believe that Watkins may have played through injury in 2019? He hadn't tallied anything less than 8.3 yards per target over the previous four years, and that's despite some subpar quarterback talent in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Knowing that Watkins is the No. 2 option at wide receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense and that he's going outside the top-50 wide receivers is bananas. Sure, he was bad in 2019, but he looked like the player we thought he'd be once they got to the playoffs, as he compiled 14 receptions for 288 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in their three playoff games. The Chiefs also had an opportunity to move on from Watkins this offseason, but they decided to keep him on the roster. He may not be an every-week option from the get-go, but knowing you have a player tied to Patrick Mahomes who saw six-plus targets in 10-of-17 games last year should carry some weight. Snagging him as a WR4/5 with upside makes too much sense, as we can't let one inefficient year erase what he's been throughout his career. There's an avenue to him finishing as a WR3 without injury in front of him.

Despite playing in one of the best offenses in football, Robinson has one little from a fantasy perspective. He set or tied career-highs last year with 55 targets, 32 receptions, 449 receiving yards, and four touchdowns, but it will take far more than that for him to get on the fantasy radar. Behind Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman, Robinson needs injuries to one or more of the other receivers to have any relevancy.