Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jerry Jeudy weathered the Russell Wilson stink better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy's lower aDOT (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. With Sean Payton in town, we could have been a year early touting this offense as a breakout unit. Jeudy is a borderline WR2/3.

Courtland Sutton is coming off a disappointing season, but when we peer at deeper efficiency metrics, it's easy to see the problem wasn't him. Sutton dipped to 50th in yards per route run and 65th in fantasy points per route run, while he saw a 23.1% target share (25th). This paints the picture that the blame rests upon Sutton's shoulders until we also see that he was 16th in total route wins and 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Only 72.5% (71st) of his targets were catchable, and he ranked 42nd in target quality rating. With a new head wizard in Sean Payton directing this passing attack, there are reasons to buy in on a big Sutton bounceback in 2023. Sutton was 11th in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets last year. Sutton is an upside WR3.

Sean Payton traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to take the talented rookie from Oklahoma. Mims closes his collegiate career with a 94th percentile yards per reception and 96th percentile breakout age. Mims can work underneath and take the top off defenses with his 4.38 speed. He can also play above the rim with exceptional leaping ability and body control. Mims could be fighting for playing time with Tim Patrick from the outset, but it's possible he hops him on the depth chart and becomes a full-time starter immediately with a strong camp and preseason. Mims is a fantastic WR5 draft pick to stash on your bench. He could be a stretch-run hero and difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if this offense bounces back from last year's pitiful showing.