Fantasy Football Player Notes

A.J. Brown has a new home in New England for the foreseeable future. Brown has been a WR1 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons (WR10, WR12, WR8, WR8), and I don't see that stopping this season. Brown moves from an Eagles offense that was 15th in neutral passing rate to a Patriots' system that was ninth in neutral passing rate and could climb even higher this season with the additions of Brown and Romeo Doubs this offseason. Brown could easily spike a career high in touchdowns this season. Last season, Philly was 32nd in passing rate inside the ten-yard line while the Patriots were 15th. That jump in touchdown fuel (if it all works out) could send him into top five status this season among fantasy receivers. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Brown was ninth in target share (27.5%), 17th in yards per route run (2.23), eighth in first-read share (35%), and 20th in first downs per route run (0.104, per Fantasy Points Data). Brown was also 30th in separation score and 16th in route win rate among the same sample of receivers. While many will worry about Drake Maye spreading the ball around in 2026, I'm not because last year that was related to New England not having an alpha-level receiver like Brown on the depth chart. That isn't the case now. Brown is a strong WR1 with more upside than he's had in previous seasons because of the passing volume floor and ceiling for New England this year.

Romeo Doubs lands with the New England Patriots and should be Drake Maye's clear WR2 behind A.J. Brown. He should see a volume bump with the Pats, simply moving from an offense that was 30th in neutral passing rate last year (Green Bay) to one that was ninth in neutral passing rate. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats increase their neutral passing rate this season, either with the arrival of Brown and Doubs and Drake Maye having another year in Josh McDaniels' offensive system. Also add in Green Bay's love of rotating receivers and Doubs 72.8% route share last year, and it's not difficult to see Doubs being a late-round value. Last year, Doubs was the WR43 in fantasy points per game with five weeks in weekly scoring as a top 25 fantasy wideout. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers, Doubs was 36th in target per route run rate, 31st in yards per route run, 18th in first downs per route run, and 27th in fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Also among those 109 receivers, Doubs was 23rd in separation and fifth in route win rate. He's primed to explode this season with WR2/3 upside if everything goes right.