Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Khalil Shakir broke out as the Bills' number-one receiver. Now, this breakout didn't lead to a wonderous eruption of fantasy points, but it was a solid season that offered hope that his 2025 season could be even better. He finished as the WR33 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-6, Shakir garnered a 16.3% target share with 49.8 receiving yards per game, 2.62 yards per route run, a 16.9% first-read share, and 0.126 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Shakir's yards per route run and first downs per route run in that sample were elite, but his market share numbers were middling at best. Well, the Bills noticed Shakir was balling out on a per-route basis and increased his role. In Weeks 7-17, Shakir saw a 23.1% target share with 57.2 receiving yards per game, 2.15 yards per route run, a 27.9% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run. The efficiency numbers took a dip, but he was featured more heavily while also seeing eight red zone targets in that ten-game stretch (only two touchdowns). If Shakir earns even more of this passing offense in 2025 and can marry the elevated role in the offense with improved efficiency, he could flirt with WR2 value. Shakir is best viewed as a solid WR3/flex with upside for more in 2025.

Keon Coleman had a disappointing rookie season in which he missed four games with a wrist injury. He finished as the WR55 in fantasy points per game, operating as Buffalo's man coverage option and deep threat (sixth-highest aDOT, 15.3). He ranked outside the top 40 wide receivers in target share (14.4%, 59th), yards per route run (1.87, 41st), first-read share (19.9%, 50th), and first downs per route run (59th, 0.074). Coleman had a 27% target per route run rate (TPRR) versus man coverage while only a 14% TPRR versus zone coverage. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he ranked 37th in separation and 44th in route win rate against man coverage, which isn't horrible numbers, but the addition of Joshua Palmer this offseason could push him out of this role. Palmer, in the same set of receivers, ranked fifth in separation and route win rate against man coverage. Coleman could lose this role to Palmer. He wasn't good enough against zone coverage to expect him to be fed in that realm, though. Among 128 qualifying receivers versus zone, Coleman ranked 125th in separation and 88th in route win rate. Coleman is a WR4/5 that I'm happily fading in 2025.

Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don't jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It's when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer's route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don't have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth the late-round flier to find out.