Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year was a disappointing season for Ladd McConkey. He finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, with eight weeks outside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring. The hype is heavy this draft season for McConkey to post monster numbers in Mike McDaniel's offense. I love McConkey's talent, but find myself lower than the market and expectations for McConkey this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 41st in separation and 15th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Those aren't daming numbers at all, but my bigger concern for McConkey this season is his ability to earn a target share that could vault him into the top 12 fantasy receivers. Last year, among the same subset of receivers, McConkey was 29th in target share (19.8%), 62nd in yards per route run (1.47), 37th in receiving yards per game (49.3), 46th in first-read share (20.4%), and 64th in first downs per route run. None of this screams "ascending monster breakout WR1" for the Chargers offense in 2026. McConkey has flashed the talent to do so at various points in his career, most notably in his rookie season, but where he's being drafted (as a mid-range WR2), for me to pay that price in drafts, I have to be able to squint and see WR1 or close to it upside for a player. I just don't see that for McConkey in 2026, but I could easily be wrong. I won't crush anyone for taking McConkey in drafts this summer, but I find myself consistently drafting other receivers and running backs over him at his ADP.

I'll go ahead and say it...I'm irrationally high on Quentin Johnston's outlook for 2026. He has a real opportunity to be the Bolts' WR1 this season because when he was healthy last year, that is exactly who he was. Last year, in Week 5, Johnston sustained a hamstring injury that lingered even into his Week 7 and 8 usage (missed Week 6). In Weeks 7-8, Johnston had a 9.1% target share and zero targets (9.78% and zero first-read shares). Those were massive departures from his early-season usage and for the remainder of the season. In Weeks 1-4 and 9-18, when he was presumably healthy, Johnson had a 20.3% target share, 1.83 yards per route run, 12 red zone targets, 17 deep targets, a 27% missed tackle rate, and a 24.8% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). During those games, Johnston led the team in EACH of those statistical categories while posting 13.9 PPR points per game. If Johnston had kept up that per-game output for fantasy all season, he would have been the WR16 in fantasy points per game. There's a real runout for Johnston that he's the Chargers' WR1 this year, and it's not Ladd McConkey, or at the very least that the gap in usage isn't nearly as wide as the consensus believes. I"ll be drafting Johnston a ton this season as a high-upside and cheap investment in the Chargers' offense that could pay off handsomely.

Ok, let me get this out of the way first. I loved Tre Harris as a prospect, but there's not a ton to get overly excited about from this rookie season. He had only a 39.9% route share with a 15% target-per-route run rate, 1.19 yards per route run, and 0.066 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I still have faith that he can blossom in his second season. Yes, I know I'm leaning on my priors here and my thoughts about him as a prospect, but he's a free dart throw at the end of drafts right now. Just to be kind and rewind, we're discussing a player who was first in yards per route run, first in yards per route run against man coverage, and 19th in YAC per reception in his final season in college (per PFF). I'm willing to forget his rookie season and take a shot on him late in drafts again in 2026, with the hope that the talent is still there and he can breakout this season.