Hitters Who Will Regress in 2017 (Fantasy Baseball)

Will Ryan Braun hit 30 homers again in 2017?

Knowing which stats to look at when identifying hitters who may regress is dependent on which category is being considered. For example, home runs are fueled by fly ball rate and HR/FB%, so looking for outliers in a player’s career norms is a relatively easy way to start.

Average is also a relatively easy area to identify regression candidates as well, by looking at BABIP and strikeout rate. Of course, figuring out which players made legitimate gains and which have improved their skills is a more difficult task.

The remaining three categories, RBI, runs, and stolen bases, are a bit trickier and require a bit more context to determine how improvements occurred. Considerations include where the batter is projected to fit into their team’s lineup and whether their manager is aggressive on the basepaths. Given all that, here are some of my regression candidates for the 2017 season.

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Ryan Braun (OF – MIL)
Ryan Braun reached the 30-homer plateau for the first time since 2012, and it took him a massive 28.8% HR/FB ratio, the highest in the league, to get there. His previous career high HR/FB% also came in the 2012 season and was 22.8%. Not only was his 2016 season a career high rate and an anomaly give his career numbers, but Braun’s contact portfolio didn’t support this huge spike.

For example, he posted his highest soft contact rate since 2011 and the third lowest hard contact rate of his career. In addition, his average fly ball distance fell from 302.9 feet in 2015 to 299.97 in 2015.

Finally, Braun doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a dominant power hitter, as most hitters who display prodigious power have a fly ball rate of at least 40%. That is a mark Braun has only surpassed twice in his career, and he hit more than 38% flyballs since 2008.

Steamer projects Braun for 24 home runs, which seems slightly optimistic but is a fair projection. In other words, prepare for regression.

Brian Dozier (2B – MIN)
Dozier’s second half performance was one of the best in recent history but also makes him one of the easiest calls for regression. His 24 second half homers were carried by a 24% HR/FB ratio, which isn’t as astronomical as expected but was still double his career rate and 11% higher than any full season mark he posted previously. It shouldn’t be expected that he can pull off that feat again, as 15 of his home runs were characterized as either “lucky” or “just enough” by ESPN hit tracker.

Meanwhile, his first half numbers were very good in their own right as he hit 12 home runs with plenty of counting stat production. Steamer is currently projecting him for 24 home runs, and that seems like a reasonable expectation. Given his other production, that leaves him as a very viable second baseman but not as a top 30 pick which is where he is currently being drafted in NFBC contests.

J.T. Realmuto (C – MIA)
J.T. Realmuto isn’t a typical catcher. In his two full seasons in the league, he has stolen 12 and eight bases respectively, which indicates that he doesn’t have feet of stone as so many other backstops do. Even with that said, his .357 BABIP from the 2016 season is destined to take a dip in 2017.

Realmuto does maintain a high groundball rate, something that normally aids a high BABIP. However, he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard as indicated by his 29.9% hard contact rate and his 20.4% line drive rate.

Realmuto has opened some eyes in the fantasy community as he is currently the sixth catcher off the board, though only the 114^th overall pick in NFBC drafts. He remains a play for bonus steals from the catcher position, but fantasy owners shouldn’t bank on him repeating his .303 average from last season.

Jose Altuve (2B/DH – HOU)
Fantasy owners get caught up in home runs, stolen bases, and average when judging a player’s value, because they are the easiest to project. As for Jose Altuve, fantasy players are focusing in on his increased power production and are considering him as a number one overall pick this season as a result. However, Altuve also used a massive jump in RBI and run production to reach his value last season.

These numbers are much harder to predict because they are dependent on more than that player’s own performance, but there are still some warning signs that regression may be coming. For example, Altuve’s 96 RBI last season came in part due to a .372 average with runners in scoring position. In 2015 and 2014 respectively, Altuve batted .297 and .310 respectively under that same circumstance.

Altuve’s new career bests do have an alternative explanation that legitimizes his jump in production, as he shifted from primarily a leadoff batter in previous seasons to primarily the team’s number three hitter last season. Naturally, this would lead to more chances to drive in runs and given the depth of the Astros’ lineup, wouldn’t necessarily hurt his potential to score runs. That said, regression is far from certain for a player with Altuve’s skills, but given his cost in drafts the possibility of regression is a necessary consideration.