Ramirez continues to be one of fantasy baseball's most bankable commodities, reliably stuffing the stat sheet. His fire-hydrant physique belies impressive speed; he swiped 27 bags last year, including 18 after the All-Star Break. The power numbers are stable. The batting average has been less predictable, but it's probably a good sign that he managed to bat .266 last year despite a .256 BABIP. His supporting cast isn't great, but it wasn't great last year either, and he still scored 111 runs and had 103 RBI. Invest with confidence.

The young slugger put it all together in 2021, tying for the MLB lead in HRs and leading the AL in runs, OBP and slugging percentage in his age-22 season. Statcast numbers and other peripherals fully supported the gaudy surface stats. Guerrero alleviated concerns that he hit the ball on the ground too much by cutting his ground-ball rate from 55% to 44%. Vladito doesn't steal bases, but he gives you everything else. And unlike his famous dad, he's actually willing to take a walk. Guerrero deserves to be taken in the top half of the first round.

The future is bright for this young star as he enters his age-24 season. Bichette broke out in 2021 with an AL-high 191 hits and proved himself to be a true five-category performer. His dad Dante once hit 40 HRs for the Rockies, and Bo seemingly has room for growth in the power department with some launch-angle adjustments, since his ground ball rate last season was just shy of 50%. Bichette doesn't like to take walks, but he hits the ball hard to all fields. Playing in one of MLB's best lineups should help keep his run and RBI totals robust. His 2021 season will be a tough act to follow, but this is a first-round profile.

Consistency and durability make Cole the most bankable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in MLB in strikeouts (243) last season and tied for third in wins (16). The last time Cole made fewer than 30 starts in a full season was 2016. His 3.23 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last season were actually high by his standards - his worst numbers in those categories since 2017 - which illustrates just how brilliant he's been in recent years. Cole had an ERA above 4.00 after the All-Star break last season, but his 0.51 ERA in three August starts leaves the impression that his second-half ups and downs were random variance. This is an ace at the height of his powers and a worthy first-round pick.

He's destined to end up in Cooperstown, but Trout has been plagued by injuries in what should be the prime of his career. He hasn't played more than 140 games in a season since 2016, and a calf injury last year limited him to just 117 at-bats. If he can stay healthy, he'll hit a bunch of bombs and make major contributions in runs, RBI and batting average. Trout once stole 49 bases, but that was a long time ago, and the SBs might not come back now that he's in his 30s. You're bound to get an injury discount on Trout, and with good reason - the risk of continued health problems is very real. But if you're lucky enough to get 150+ games out of him, you're going to turn a big profit.

This former uber-prospect didn't disappoint in his first full MLB season, delivering the goods in five categories. There's room for more, as Tucker played 140 games and was typically slotted in the bottom half of the Astros' batting order. Tucker's contact rate is on the rise, he makes plenty of hard contact, and his flyball rate is what you're looking for in a power hitter. Tucker will probably never bee among the stolen base leaders, but he swiped 14 bags last year and has 20 SB upside. Tucker might just be scratching the surface of his talents. He figures to go somewhere close to the first-round/second-round turn, but he's destined to be a perennial first-rounder.

Devers hit a career-high 38 HRs in 2021, and the peripherals say there's more where that came from. He was north of the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. Devers doesn't take a lot of walks, but he drives the ball to all fields with authority and should provide a plus batting average. He doesn't run much, but with this sort of hitting profile, that's a minor complaint. He plays in a great hitter's park and has a strong supporting cast. Devers is building an impressive body of work, and he's still only 25. This is a rock-solid investment.

The young White Sox slugger missed more than three months after straining his hip flexor trying to leg out an infield single but went nuclear upon his return, batting .350 with 12 HRs and 35 RBI over his final 43 games. Robert runs, too, with 15 SBs in 124 career games. There's legitimate 30-30 potential here, and it's not hard to imagine Robert producing a 40 HR season at cozy Guaranteed Rate Field. A ridiculous .394 BABIP fueled last year's .338 batting average, so there's bound to be some major recoil in that category. Health is a concern as well, as Robert experienced leg tightness in the playoffs. There's a lot to like here, but a second-round ADP seems a bit rich for a 24-year-old who has yet to play a full season.

Power is his calling card, and Alvarez didn't disappoint in that department last year, mashing 33 HRs with 104 RBI. He had a healthy .277 batting average in 2021 and has a career mark of .290, so the power doesn't come at the expense of BA. The power peripherals are outstanding - he's in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. There could be a 50 HR season lurking here. Alvarez has just one SB in 233 career games, and he's had surgery on both knees. But if those granddad knees hold up, you're likely to be please with your return on investment.

He's Japan's greatest gift to MLB since Ichiro, and he offers the greatest combination of hitting and pitching since Babe Ruth. Ohtani's 9.1 WAR in 2021 was more than a full win higher than anyone else's. It's unfortunate that the rules in most fantasy leagues make it impossible for investors to fully tap all of Ohtani's skills. As a hitter, he provides prodigious power, scores runs in bunches and makes meaningful SB contributions. He batted .257 last year, but would it shock anyone if he gave us a .300 season? As a pitcher, Ohtani got his walks under control, struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings, and posted a 9-2 record. It's a dazzling skill set, and if Ohtani stays healthy, he's likely to return something close to first-round value as a hitter. He's a valuable pitcher, too, but to most fantasy owners that's just gravy.

Bieber had a breakout season in 2019, won the Cy Young Award in 2020, and was off to a good start in 2021 before a shoulder strain in mid-June landed him on IL and limited him to just two more starts the rest of the way. Bieber has some of the filthiest breaking stuff in baseball. When he's on, he piles up strikeouts and limits walks and flyballs. Shoulder problems for pitchers are worrisome, but Bieber recently told a Cleveland beat writer he feels great. There's an element of risk here, but it's injury risk, not performance risk. Bieber should continue to be a top starter if he can stay healthy.

Anderson could fall out of bed and go 2-for-5. His batting averages the last three seasons: .335, .322, .309. At this point, we have to conclude that his consistently high BABIPs aren't fluky. Anderson isn't a truly elite base stealer, but he swiped 18 bags in 123 games last season and could conceivably steal 25-30 bases in a good year. Anderson has consistently been in the 17-20 home run range, so while he won't provide a lot of help in the power department, he won't hurt you either. In a loaded White Sox lineup, Anderson has a chance to score 100 runs if he can stay healthy. Anderson's ADP suggests he might slip into the fourth round of your draft. Pounce on him if he does.

It would normally make sense to be wary of a late-ish bloomer who has a breakout year at age 28. Hernandez established new career highs in basically every offensive category last year, batting .296, belting 32 HRs, driving in 116 runs, scoring 92 times and doubling his previous season high in stolen bases with 12. But the peripheral numbers back it all up. Statcast absolutely loves Hernandez, even backing up the SB breakout by putting him in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. He'll bat cleanup in a stacked Blue Jays lineup and should get ample opportunities to drive in runs. A full repeat of his 2021 numbers might be a stretch, but Hernandez should be able to come close.

In Colorado, Story was a menace. Away from the mile high air, he's just another guy. Since 2019, Story's batting average has been 80 points lower away from Denver, and his slugging percentage is 150 points lower. He's hit 60.1% of his career home runs at Coors Field, and 62% of his career RBI have come there. Now he'll be playing his home games in Fenway Park, arguably the second-best hitters park in baseball. But while Fenway is good for hitters overall, it actually depresses home runs slightly. Let someone else spend the year complaining that they weren't smart enough to dodge this overpriced bullet.

The city of Baltimore hasn't seen such an unexpectedly high HR total since Brady Anderson smacked 50 homers in 1996. Mullins had hit seven HRs in 374 career at-bats entering 2021. He cleared the fence 30 times last year and added 30 stolen bases for good measure. Mullins played the 2020 season with an undiagnosed case of Crohn's disease, which may have prevented us from seeing the "real" Cedric Mullins. Some pullback on the HR total is probably inevitable, but the speed and other plate skills should remain intact. Looks slightly overpriced at a third-round ADP.

Semien's 45 HRs last season were the most ever by a second baseman. His monster 2021 performance also included 115 runs, 102 RBI and 15 stolen bases. A 48% flyball rate makes Semien a launch angle darling and suggests that he'll keep clearing the fences. He's been a prolific run scorer for the last four seasons. On the other hand, there's some batting average risk here, and Semien probably maxed out his SB potential last year. He's going from a loaded Blue Jays lineup to a sketchy Rangers lineup, and Semien will turn 32 in September. Last year's numbers will make him irresistible to some investors, but a drop-off in value may be imminent.

Giolito doesn't have pinpoint control, and he gives up his fair share of gopher balls, but those are relatively minor warts on an otherwise sterling profile. He's finished 16th, 4th and 16th in strikeouts over the last three seasons. His worst batting average against over that span is .217. Giolito had a 3.53 ERA last year, but it would have been 3.17 if the Red Sox hadn't shelled him for seven runs in one inning in a disastrous Patriots' Day start. At 27, Giolito is entering the prime of his career, and he should benefit from playing on a good team in a soft division.

This late bloomer has been fantasy gold for the last five years. Merrifield stole 40 bases last season at age 32. Durability is a big plus: Merrifield hasn't missed a game in the last three years. But there are some worrisome signs of slippage. His line drive rate has been steadily dropping over the last few seasons, and he hit only two home runs last season from July 1 on. Merrifield has been a terrific value for years, but it's possible he'll be slightly overpriced in 2022 drafts.

Perez tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021 and had a league-leading 121 RBI. After missing the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery and playing 37 of 60 games in 2020, Perez played 161 games last year (40 as a DH) and went to the plate 665 times. He's bound to get fewer PAs this season, and some HR pullback is probably inevitable, but the Statcast numbers show that Perez crushes the ball when he makes contact. His career batting averages have been all over the map, and he doesn't run, but the power and run production are legit. Perez deserves to be the first catcher off the board, but he might be drafted too early after last season's homer-fest.

Get a season of reasonably good health out of Buxton and you're likely to run a profit, probably a big one. But what are the chances he'll play 150 or more games? In the five non-COVID years that he's been on the Twins' Opening Day roster, Buxton has averaged 81.6 games played and 271.2 at-bats. In 2021, Buxton missed 39 games with a strained hip, then broke his hand after being hit with a pitch in his third game back, causing him to miss another month. When healthy, Buxton will steal a lot of bases and score plenty of runs. He's added power, too, and he batted .306 over 61 games last year. Still only 28, Buxton has upside galore, but the risk level here is enormous.

He's been lights-out for three years now. Hendricks led the AL with 38 saves last year, finishing one save behind MLB leader Mark Melancon. And, man, did Hendricks earn those saves. In 71 innings, he had 113 strikeouts and gave up only seven walks. For a second straight year, he gave up fewer than six hits per nine innings. His combined WHIP over the past two years is 0.72. Hendricks' flyball rate crept above 50% last year, leading to 11 gopher balls, but that's a small blemish on an otherwise flawless profile. Invest confidently in one of the game's best closers.

Quad and knee injuries limited Springer to 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays, but he mashed when healthy, with 22 HRs, 50 RBI and 59 runs in just 299 at-bats. Springer has consistently posted batting averages in the .260s or higher during his career, and he'll steal a handful of bases for you. Batting leadoff with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Teoscar Hernandez behind him, Springer has a great chance to score 100 or more runs. He'll turn 33 in August, but he seems to be aging gracefully. Springer is a solid investment.

This is one of the riskiest bets in fantasy baseball for 2022. Ray tamed his chronic wildness in 2021, pounding the strike zone with his electric stuff and turning in a Cy Young season. But do you really want to wager that the control problems won't return? Ray walked 2.4 batter per 9 innings last year. His career average is 3.9 walks per 9 innings. Ray yielded a career-low BABIP of .269 last year. If there's regression in Ray's hit and walk rates, the results could be toxic. There's an enormous range of outcomes here. We saw the best of Ray last year, and he was immensely valuable. In his bad seasons, he's been a negative-value player. Where on the spectrum he lands this year is anyone's guess. Invest at your own risk.

The Rays' wunderkind signed an 11-year, $182 million contract in November and now simply has to go about the business of becoming the superstar everyone expects him to become. Franco scored 53 runs and had 39 RBI in only 70 games last season. He also displayed impressive plate patience and remarkable contact skills as a 20-year-old rookie. He's not a speed merchant, and the power might take time to develop, but Franco should score a lot of runs, drive in a lot of runs and produce something close to a .300 batting average.

Give the ascending slugger a mulligan for an ill-fated 2021 season. Jimenez ruptured a pectoral tendon in a spring training game and didn't come back until July 26. His surface stats in his 55 games were decent - 10 HRs, 37 RBI a .249 average - but Jimenez didn't live up to the promise he showed in the shortened 2020 season, when he had 14 HRs, 41 RBI and a .296 average. Expect a rebound and substantial power numbers. Speed isn't part of the package - he's played 232 career games and still hasn't stolen a base - but that's the only weakness here. It's only a matter of time before Jimenez gives us a 40 HR season.

After a forgettable short season in 2020, Altuve tied a career high with 31 home runs last year, scored a career-high 117 runs and had 83 RBI despite hitting in the leadoff spot. The peripherals suggest that Altuve's 2021 HR total was somewhat fluky and park-aided. Altuve used to be good for 30+ stolen bases a season, but he's had 11 SBs in his last two full seasons combined. The days of .300 batting averages may be gone, too. Altuve has been below .300 in each of the last three seasons and has batted .277 over that span. We should at least be able to count on a lot of runs with Altuve batting at the top of a stacked lineup, but the ceiling here isn't what it used to be. Exercise caution as Altuve enters his age-32 season.

The playoff hero of 2020 provided a satisfying encore by being named 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, though there was some slippage. After belting 10 HRs in 20 playoff games two seasons ago, Arozarena hit 20 homers in 141 games last season and struck out 170 times. A modest flyball rate and ordinary Statcast numbers suggest that Arozarena probably won't provide elite power numbers. Last year's 37% hit rate fueled a .274 batting average that may not be sustainable. On the bright side, he had 20 SBs on 30 attempts. There are a multiple paths to value here, but still, Arozarena is a high-profile player likely to be overdrafted.

The White Sox slugger continues to be one of the most reliable investments in fantasy baseball. He hit 30 homers last year, with 117 RBI and 86 runs. In seven full MLB seasons, Abreu has produced 30 or more HRs five times and 100 or more RBI six times. His .261 batting average last season was the lowest of his career, but he batted .280 from July 1 on. His exit velocities and hard-hit percentage say that he still crushes baseballs with authority. If you get an age discount, pounce.

Seager will play with an American League team for the first time after the Rangers gave him a 10-year $325 million deal. Seager will rake when healthy. He's batted .307 and .306 the last two years and has a career average of .297. He also makes solid contributions in HRs, RBI and runs. Seager won't offer much help in the SB department, however. There's little performance risk, but there's a lot of health risk. Seager had both hip surgery and Tommy John surgery in 2018, and he missed more than two months with a broken hand last year. He's in the prime of his career and figures to offer a satisfying return on investment if he can stay healthy.

At age 30, Gausman finally put it all together over a full season and got himself into the Cy Young conversation. Gausman had a K/BB ratio of 4.5/1 last year and induced swinging strikes on better than 15% of his pitches for a third straight season. His .275 BABIP in 2021 says there was a small element of luck involved, but most of the numbers fully support his banner year (which followed his strong showing in the COVID-shortened 2020 season). Gausman's splitter has become one of the most effective pitches in baseball. The move to the AL East is a mixed bag. On one hand, the Jays should win a lot of games. On the other hand, Gausman will make a good percentage of his starts against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.

The free-swinging middle infielder signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers. Baez led the NL with 184 strikeouts last year but also belted 31 homers, had 87 RBI and 80 runs, and batted a respectable .265. This is a strange, volatile skill set, but Baez can usually be counted on to provide help with the counting stats. He won't hurt you in leagues that use batting average, but his unwillingness to take a walk becomes a liability in OBP leagues.

Berrios may have finally arrived as an ace last season, yet he's still very affordable in fantasy drafts. His 3.52 ERA in 2021 was the lowest of his career. Berrios walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings last year and had a K/BB ratio of 4.5/1. He's as durable as they come, having made 32 starts in each of his last three full seasons. Berrios will spend his first full season in the rugged AL East, but with a loaded Blue Jays lineup giving him run support, he has a good chance to exceed 14 wins for the first time in his career. Entering his age-28 season, Berrios should be at the height of his powers.

In 2021, Lowe became a full-time player for the first time in his career and responded with 39 HRs, 99 RBI and 97 runs. He batted only .247 last year and struck out 167 times in 615 plate appearances. Lowe has also struggled against lefties throughout his career. But Lowe's first-half/second-half splits were eye-opening. He was batting .208 at the All-Star break; Lowe batted .292 after the break and dramatically reduced his strikeout rate without sacrificing any power. If the second-half adjustments stick, Lowe might actually be able to improve upon his breakout season.

If only we could transfer this skill set to a more durable body. Mondesi is a stolen base machine with some surprising pop in his bat, but he hasn't played in more than 102 games or made more than 443 plate appearances in any season, and he's played more than 75 games only once. Leg and foot injuries limited him to only 35 games last year, yet Mondesi still managed to swipe 15 bags and belt six home runs. He strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and has a .249 career batting average, but his contributions in the counting categories (especially steals) more than make up for it. This is all about risk tolerance, and you're obligated to bake some missed games into Mondesi's price.

If he stays relatively healthy, Stanton is probably going to contend for the home run crown. But that's a huge "if," obviously. Stanton enjoyed two relatively healthy seasons in 2018-2019, played 41 combined games in 2019-2020, and managed to play 139 games last year with only one stay on the DL for a quad issue. Statcast numbers show that he's still one of the games top sluggers, and he should have better luck in RBIs and runs than he had last season, when he had 97 and 64, respectively. Stanton doesn't run, but he holds his own in batting average. There's a lot of risk here, particularly with Stanton now well into his 30s, but the lengthy injury history almost guarantees a discount in drafts.

Polanco enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2021, batting .269 with 33 HRs, 98 RBI, 97 runs and 11 SBs. He went nuclear after the All-Star break, batting .287 with 21 homers. Could it be that Polanco feels less pressure as a second baseman than as a shortstop, and his hitting has benefitted as a result? Polanco has always been a line drive machine, so even if the power gains don't stick (and there's a good chance they won't), he should still deliver a healthy batting average. Dual 2B-SS eligibility is a plus. Polanco is a worthy investment, but don't pay for a full repeat of the power.

Montas has taken his investors on a wild ride the past few seasons. He got off to a fast start in 2019 but received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Montas pitched poorly in 2020, posting a 5.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts. Last year, Montas took a 6.20 ERA into May but then pulled it all together and was lights-out in the second half, with a 2.17 ERA in 14 starts after the All-Star break. Increase usage of his elite splitter spiked his swinging-strike rated and helped him rack up a career-high 207 strikeouts. It's been a bumpy ride, but it seems like Montas has figured things out.

After his monster 2019 season (.296, 41 HRs, 112 RBI), Bregman's last two campaigns have been disappointing. Quad and hamstring issues limited him to .348 ABs last season, and he batted .270 with 12 HRs, 55 RBI and 54 runs. Uninspiring Statcast numbers suggest that another 40 HR season isn't in the cards. Bregman is a career .281 hitter, however, and he'll make worthwhile contributions in RBI and runs. Just don't pay for the Bregman of 2018-2019.

Most fantasy managers expected James Karinchak to be Cleveland's closer last year, but Clase simply could not be denied. His miniscule 1.29 ERA and 0.96 WHIP were largely earned, and he ranked in the top one percent of the league in barrel rate, xERA, wOBA, and xWOBA. His cutter/slider combination is one of the best in the league, and he routinely sits at over 100 miles per hour with good command. With his raw stufdf being as good as it is, there's little reason to doubt that Clase can repeat his 2021 performance. Draft him as one of the first relievers off the board.

Cease showed a lot of growth last season, drastically increasing his strikeout rate (top four percent in MLB) while seeing a corresponding drop in both his walk-rate and HR/9. But to take the next leap, he's going to have to increase his efficiency, as he barely averaged five innings per start. There's a pretty plausible path to Cease finishing as a top-15 starter, and it largely involves him continuing to hone his command, particularly with his inconsistent curveball. If he does, and he can avoid the blow-up outings, then Cease has the makings of a fantasy ace. If he can't, then he'll likely still be a productive, albeit inconsistent, starter for your team.

Witt was drafted everywhere after buzz in the spring suggested that he'd be up in the majors before long. "Before long" became never, as Witt spent the entire year in Double-A and Triple-A, admittedly showing why he's such a valued prospect. In 123 games combined between the levels, he hit 33 home runs and stole 29 bases, all with a plus average. Witt should begin the year in the majors (or be up shortly after the start of the season), and he'll almost certainly play third base, giving him dual-eligibility. He may struggle early on, but he's too talented to let it continue for long. At a barren third base position, he could be one of the most impactful players in fantasy baseball this year based on his ADP.

Manoah was largely as advertised last year with Toronto, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His fastball (.288 wOBA) and slider (.238 wOBA) were a deadly combination, though he's probably going to need to continue to develop his changeup to truly excel as a starter. With that said, Manoah is just 24 years old and already boasts two elite pitches with a solid MLB season under his belt. He may pitch in a tough division and a hitter-friendly ballpark, but given his pedigree and potential for more, he's someone to draft as a high-end No. 3 starter with little hesitation.

Pressly was his usual excellent self in the bullpen last year, pitching to a 2.25 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 32.4% strikeout rate, his fourth straight season with at least a 31% mark. His fantasy value was held in check by his oddly-low save total of 26, but that was hardly his fault. The Astros as a team had only 34 saves total, which was tied with the Blue Jays for the lowest mark by a .500 team or better. Houston averaged 46.5 saves over the team's previous two full seasons, so expect them to approach that mark again and for Pressly's save total to jump by at least five or more. If you can grab a discount based on his low number last year, do so.

McClanahan had a successful 2021 season in almost every respect. His ERA, strikeouts, and walk rate were all extremely solid, and he made 26 starts including the post-season. Despite decent control, he had a bloated 1.27 WHIP, which was largely the result of batters destroying his fastball. Specifically, the pitch allowed a .308 batting average and a .378 wOBA, and considering he threw it 40.9% of the time, McClanahan's overall numbers are a testament to how good his slider and curveball were. Assuming he can get better command of his fastball and improve his performance with the pitch, there's plenty of room for growth with the young lefty.

A medley of injuries limited Rendon to 58 games and 249 plate appearances in 2021. He batted over .300 in each of his last three seasons with the Nationals, but Rendon's BA slipped to .286 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and bottomed out at a career-low .240 last year. When he's at his best, Rendon is a choosy hitter who racks up extra-base hits and makes significant contributions in every category except stolen bases. He's slightly past prime age, but we should still expect a bounce-back season from Rendon, and he's very affordable in drafts.

Winker's value drops with the move to Seattle, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB. He should still provide a solid batting average, but aspirations of 30 HR and 90 RBI now seem far-fetched. Winker is yet another player who deals with chronic injuries. He's a guy I usually pass on and regret it at least 21 nights of the season, but pat myself on the back the rest of the year.

Walsh was outstanding in his rookie year, blasting 29 home runs and batting .277. His expected batting average (.257) and slugging percentage (.436) lagged significantly behind his actual numbers, but his 114.8 MPH maximum exit velocity was in the top six percent of MLB and suggests his power is real. Walsh couldn't hit a lick against lefties last year, as he batted just .170 against them with a .565 OPS. But, even if he loses time against them, his success against righties should be more than enough to keep him relevant. Buy him as a 30-homer bat but take at least 10 to 20 points off his batting average from last year.

Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.

If Castillo is on your target list, make sure to buy a big bottle of Tums. By the end of the season, you'll probably be happy with your decision, to roster him, but there will be long stretches of the season where you'll be driven to the breaking point while following Castillo's starts on Stat Tracker. He's a notoriously slow starter, so be prepared for a bumpy ride until June. I've ridden the Reds ace through multiple tumultuous seasons, and I can't do it again. If you have a stronger constitution than I do, know that Castillo has SP1 stuff and will probably be worth it over the long haul.

Romano wasn't always used as a traditional closer last year, but he firmly established himself as Toronto's best reliever and wound up with 23 saves. Romano sits at 97 MPH with his fastball and it's just been an absolutely dominant pitch over the last two seasons, particularly when combined with his above-average slider. He's a reliever with a limited track record which means his volatility is high. But there are few closing situations where fantasy managers can feel confident about who is going to get the ball in the ninth inning - Toronto's is one of them, and that means Romano should be considered a top-10 reliever.

Rodriguez had an awful 2021 season, but his 4.74 ERA was backed up by a 3.32 FIP and 3.50 xERA. His walk percentage and strikeout rate were actually career bests, and he made at least 31 starts for the second consecutive season. Really, it was just a lot of bad luck for Rodriguez, as his .363 BABIP against and 68.9% LOB %, both career-worsts, showed. He'll face an easier slate of lineups now that he's with Detroit, but his ceiling is fairly low given that he's really got just one truly reliable pitch in his fastball. He could theoretically finally beat his career best 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but there's just not enough upside for him to be anything but a back-end-of-the-rotation type of arm.

On the one hand, Meadows largely bounced back from the horror story that was the abbreviated 2020 season. His strikeout rate normalized, his power returned, and his playing time stabilized. The glaring exception was that he could not correct his sudden struggles against lefties. In 2019, Meadows slashed .275/.316/.521 against southpaws. Last year, he slashed just .198/.270/.293 against them. Even if Meadows's overall numbers are passable, it seems unlikely that a team like the Rays are going to let a player who is merely an average defender continue to keep an everyday job when he's virtually useless against left-handed throwers. That would still leave Meadows on the strong side of a platoon, but if he does begin to sit more regularly, his counting stats will take a hit, and fantasy managers should be aware of that before they select him in their drafts.

After establishing himself as one of MLB's premier innings-eaters in 2019 and 2020, Lynn spent time on IL in 2021 with back and knee problems but was still highly effective, posting a career-best 2.69 ERA. There are a few minor concerns, however. The BABIPs against him the last two years have been .243 and .265. (For his career, it's .301.) Lynn's flyball rate has been on the rise the last two years, which could be a problem since the White Sox play in a bandbox. We might not see another sub-.300 ERA again, but we're likely to see more innings than bad, and Lynn is a good bet to give you a lot of innings. He led MLB in batters faced in 2019 and tied for the league lead in 2020.

Valdez fractured his ring finger just before the start of the season and although there were rumors he could miss the entire season, he wound up making 22 starts and throwing 134 2/3 innings. He lost some of the gains he had made with his control, but he induced ground balls at a 70.3% clip, an absurd rate. Valdez has one great pitch - his curveball - and his value is highly dependent on the quality of his defense. So the chances of him taking a great leap are minimal. But what he provides is plenty good enough to be a mid-tier starter for your fantasy team.

Mahle is your quintessential fantasy rotation filler. His ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.23) won't really hurt you and he'll throw enough innings, but because he's primarily a fastball pitcher with little else in his arsenal, there's so little upside. That's especially true because he pitches in a hitter-friendly environment and for a team that has traded nearly every decent offensive piece. That means wins should be hard to come by and with Mahle's upside cap, make sure not to draft him too early.

Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.

We've got a "best shape of his life" alert with Moncada, who has been vocal about his offseason training habits. Talk of 30 stolen bases have leaked out and considering the weakness of the third base position, Moncada's ADP has slowly begun to rise. But he's never stolen more than 12 bases in a season and is in the 67th percentile for sprint speed. Stolen bases are the least of Moncada's problems anyway, as he's hit just 20 homers and batted .253 combined over the last two seasons (196 games). His walk rate is still elite and there should be a ton of run and RBI opportunities again in the Chicago lineup. But until we actually see Moncada get back to the 2019 version of himself, don't bother reaching for him.

Renfroe has always had power but put it all together last year for Boston and became one of their most reliable and dependable bats.He cut his strikeout rate to just 22.7% and although he was still much better against lefties, he made major gains against righties such that he went far beyond potentially being placed in a platoon situation. Moving to the Brewers can only help his power, so bank on 30 home runs with helpful counting stats everywhere but steals.

Rizzo re-signed with the Yankees this offseason, and that's pretty much as good a landing spot as fantasy managers could have hoped for. His counting stats will benefit with the strong lineup and short porch in right, and he still has productive seasons ahead of him. But Rizzo is a different player now than he was in his heyday, and the days of 30 home runs, double-digit steals, or batting averages in the high .200s are over. He can be useful for fantasy managers, but he's a low-end first baseman or decent corner infielder in mixed leagues at this point in his career. Nothing more.

Gray can be maddening at time with his inconsistency. When his breaking stuff is on and getting strikes, he's borderline unhittable. When it's not, things often get ugly, and there's little rhyme or reason to which Gray you're going to see on any given day. His home-run rate spiked last year and a move to Minnesota should help get that under control. And he started throwing a cutter last year that had a lot of success, and if he continues to develop it, it could be a game-changer. But in the end, Gray has essentially put it all together just once in his last six seasons, so keep your expectations in check.

LeMahieu seems like the poster child for the effect of the juiced ball. After drastically increasing his home run power over the previous few seasons, he hit just 10 home runs last year and his slugging percentage dropped to .362. LeMahieu had offseason surgery to repair a hernia, so perhaps his injury was bothering him longer than he let on and is responsible for his down year. But it's equally possible that at 33 years old, and without the juiced ball, LeMahieu just isn't as valuable a fantasy commodity as he used to be. Chances are, at the very least, that the days of a .300-plus batting average are gone, and now with likely low-teens home run potential, LeMahieu is more of a late-round pick whose main value is his position flexibility.

Chapman get a massive upgrade moving from Oakland to Toronto, both in terms of home park and surrounding lineup. He's coming off an incredible disappointing year in which he hit only .210, but it's worth remembering that he had major surgery the prior offseason. As we saw with Buster Posey, players often take a full season to recover, so it's a good bet that you can write Chapman's 2021 off to his recovery. Even so, he hit 27 home runs last year, so if he can just get his strikeout rate back down to the 23% range he had shown in his career rather than the 33% range he's had the last two seasons, he could be in for a monstrous year.

Verdugo is a reliable option for batting average, as he's batted at least .289 in three straight seasons. He doesn't have a ton of pop or speed, though he'll at least chip in with home runs and steals, and because he'll bat near the top of the Red Sox lineup, should be an asset in runs scored. Think of a poor man's version of Michael Brantley in his prime and that's what Verdugo will give you, and that's plenty valuable for fantasy.

Kelenic's season was shaping up to be an all-time disaster for a prospect, but a fairly strong final month, during which he hit seven homers and slashed .248/.331/.524, salvaged things a bit. He still batted just .180 on the year and struck out 28.1% of the time, but there's reason to believe he can put his year in the rear view mirror and start fresh. Kelenic has an advanced approach, and could pretty easily put up a 20-20 season without batting an eye if everything breaks right. With a stronger Mariners lineup batting behind him, Kelenic should be someone to target in fantasy drafts given his potential and strong close to the 2021 season.

Grandal played in only 93 games last year because of a knee injury but still hit 23 home runs with 122 combined runs and RBI. His walk rate (23.2%) was comically high, but it obviously didn't impact any of his other numbers, and his strikeout rate was the lowest it has been in years. Don't extrapolate his home run numbers - he's not going to his 40 - but mid-20s with solid runs and RBI totals are in the bank. That's gold for a catcher.

Gilbert pitched better than his 4.68 ERA, and became a fairly reliable starter by the end of the season. He's got two major assets - an elite fastball that sits at about 95 MPH and outstanding command. His home park helps, too, but he'll need to continue to develop a second pitch (his slider is good but inconsistent) if he wants to take a step forward. He's an ideal back-end-of-the-rotation arm for your fantasy team - he'll give you innings and strikeouts and rarely get crushed, but things will need to break right for him to finish with under a 3.80 ERA.

Spoiler alert with Donaldson - he's going to hit the ball really, really hard, he's going to walk a ton, andhe' going to miss time with an injury or two, probably involving his calf. The move to the Yankees can only help his fantasy outlook but, as with the Twins, the Yankees' DH spot will be filled most days, so Donaldson will need to play the field. His quality of contact has remained remarkably consistent despite his advanced age, so even in his age-36 season, fantasy managers shouldn't worry much about a decline. Book the production when he plays, but have a fill-in ready.

Garcia had a fine 2021 season, as both his cutter (.175 BAA) and slider (.133 BAA) were dominant, at least until the end of the year and playoffs. His upside is capped just a bit because his fastball is so mediocre, so he really needs to lean in to both of those other pitches and have them both working to be effective. That's what we saw most of last year, so another season of a mid-3.00 ERA and a passable WHIP may certainly be in the cards. Let's just hope the mini-swoon we saw over the final month of the season (4.67 ERA) was a blip and not a sign of things to come.

There is no doubting Kopech's talent - he has an outstanding fastball and slider with a decent changeup - but it's more his role. He's had a tortured path to success, including undergoing Tommy John surgery and opting out of the 2020 season. But he was excellent last year, mostly in relief, and showed that he has the stuff to succeed in the majors. His role in 2022 is a bit undefined as of now, as the White Sox appear to want him in the rotation but state that he is behind the other starters. Given that he's thrown just 69.1 innings over the last two years, you'd be wise to pencil him in for about 130 innings and 20-25 starts. So long as you draft depth behind him, he should be a major asset this year.

Mancini was one of the best baseball stories of 2021 as he returned from missing the 2020 season due to cancer to put up a productive year. He dipped significantly from his outstanding 2019 numbers (.291/.364/.535), but his underlying metrics largely held firm. The truth is that Mancini was just a bit lucky in 2019, as he outperformed his expected numbers in nearly every category, and was comparably unlucky in 2021, underperforming those same numbers by similar amounts. His true version likely lies somewhere in between, and that's not a bad thing. Expect an improvement from most of his numbers last year, but bank on 25 homers, rather than the 34 he totaled in 2019, particularly with the new dimensions in left field in Camden Yards.

 

Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.

Forget about ever seeing Torres come close to the 38 home runs he hit in 2019. His power has come crashing back down to earth over the past two years, along with his batting average. He did rebound a bit in the second half, hitting .289 with six home runs and eight steals, but when those are the numbers that force you to have hope for his fantasy production, things aren't in great shape. He'll still bat in an outstanding lineup so his counting stats should have somewhat of a floor, but he's now an option you settle for, rather than target.

Sale returned from Tommy John surgery last year and mostly looked like his old self. His velocity was close to pre-surgery levels, and though his strikeout rate dropped a smidge, he was basically the same ace he's always been. A .358 BABIP against Sale last year suggests he got unlucky, yet he still posted a 3.16 ERA. Health is really the only concern for Sale, who was an All-Star for seven straight seasons from 2012 to 2018. Unfortunately, he's already hurt. A stress fracture in his rib cage will cause him to miss the start of the regular season.

Garcia came out of absolutely nowhere last season to become one of just five players to hit at least 31 home runs and steal at least 16 bases. His success largely came early in the season, as he blasted 11 home runs in May with a .312 batting average before, as most fantasy managers expected, pitchers adjusted. The adjustment hit Garcia hard, as he slashed just .211/.256/.370 in the second half, though he stole seven bases over the final month of the season to cushion the blow. The issue for Garcia is the same that plagues most largely unknown hitters who put up huge hot streaks - he lacks plate discipline. His strikeout rate (31.2%) and walk rate (5.1%) were both in the bottom six percent of MLB, and both were due largely to the fact that he simply swings too much at pitches outside of the zone (39.7 O-Swing%, ninth-worst in the league). The Rangers have a much-improved lineup and perhaps Garcia will improve in his second year, but unless he drastically changes his approach, his numbers are going to have a hard cap on them.

Clevinger is on track to be ready for Opening Day after missing all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That was Clevinger's second such surgery so there's certainly reason for long-term concern, but for just this year, he's someone to buy. He was a top flight fantasy starter for the last several years before his injury, and has a wipeout slider to go along with his fastball. His control has never been elite and there will probably be a fairly hard innings cap on him coming off of surgery, but on an inning-by-inning basis, he should provide elite production if healthy.

Sandoval didn't get much respect from fantasy managers despite a solid year last season, probably for two reasons. The first is that his control is middling (9.9% walk rate), which leads to an inflated WHIP. The second is that his fastball is just mediocre, and it's really difficult to trust a pitcher who doesn't want to throw that pitch. But all that ignores that he has a glorious changeup and a passable slider, which he uses to great effect. He ended his season with a stress fracture in his back but he's reportedly fully recovered now. There's some risk with him but, chances are, his ADP won't reflect his upside. Take a chance on him, but make sure to draft some other "boring" and safe options.

Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.

Straw is your quintessential no-power, all-speed player. He hit four home runs last year and that's not going to be anomaly given his incredibly low hard-hit rate. But he stole 30 bases and ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. He'll lead off for the Guardians this season and given their likely futility on offense, it's reasonable to expect Straw to try to swipe a bag at every chance he gets. If you're covered in power, he's a fine pick, but don't have any dreams of a home run surge now or anytime in the future.

Baddoo wasn't expected to contribute much in the majors last year, but he came on strong and ultimately played in 124 games, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 18 bases while batting .259. The speed is legtimate, as he ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season, but he's going to significantly improve on his .523 OPS against lefties if he's going to find success this year. Baddoo should begin the year batting leadoff in front of an improved Tigers lineup, so if he can just maintain his performance against righties and improve against lefties somewhat, a 20-20 season coul be in the cards. If not, then he'll likely bat in the lower third of the order and lose much of his value.

Means had a fine overall season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, the latter number helped by the fact that he walked just 4.4% of batters, which ranked in the top four percent of baseball. If you put Means on another team, his ADP would probably rise 20 or 30 spots. He has elite control as mentioned, and an above-average fastball, changeup, and curveball. But with Baltimore, he just won't win many games (he has eight wins over his last 36 starts) and his always awful home run rate likely won't improve that much, though it may stabilize at least a little with the new dimensions in Camden Yards. Means's expected stats were worse than his actual numbers last year, so some ERA regression may be due. But he's got upside, particularly if he is traded out of Baltimore, and his floor should be pretty stable regardless.

Hays finally made good on his prospect pedigree, hitting 22 home runs and topping 140 combined runs and RBI. It wasn't perfect - he walked only 5.3% of the time and his hard-hit rate and exit velocity were mediocre. But he had a strong close to th season with 12 home runs and 35 RBI over the final two months of the season. Just 26 years old, there's plenty of room for growth, though the new dimensions in Camden Yards may keep his power in check a bit. Buy him at his 2021 numbers and understand there's plenty of room for growth.

Skubal had some growing pains last year, and he really needs to improve his four-seam fastball (.611 SLG, .413 wOBA). But he approached his season the right way, and used it to develop his secondary pitches, and both his slider and changeup came a long way. Drafting Skubal to be a starter for your team means you believe that he's going to continue his upward trend, and considering that both his strikeout and walk rates were extremely solid last year, there's reason for optimism. Just be ready for an uneven ride along the way, as is typical with young pitchers.

Adell has massive power but hit just four home runs in 35 games in the majors last year. But his strikeout rate was a very manageable 22.9% after it was an incredibly bloated 41.7% in 2020, and that generally bodes well for a prospect. He worked on a swing change this offseason and looks much, much more comfortable in the spring. As fantasy managers know, prospect growth is not linear, so Adell's mediocre performance in the majors to this point shouldn't give you much pause. You'll have to pay more for him than his numbers suggest you should, be he's got the type of upside that should make the price worth it.

Barlow had a fine 2021 season, finishing with 16 saves and a 2.42 ERA. That season should be enough to give him the first shot at the closer's role again this year for Kansas City, but he's far from a locked-in option. His three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball) is solid, though he lacks a dominant pitch, and his control has been a bit hit or miss throughout his career. With Josh Staumont and Amir Garrett behind him, Barlow's job security may be tenuous if he struggles. He's a late-round closer who should hopefully provide you with saves early in the season. Just don't draft him expecting him to hold the role all year.

It's hard to properly assess a pitcher who has thrown 18 innings combined over the last three seasons, even one as talented as Severino. In his last two full seasons, he was a fantasy ace, pitching to a 3.18 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9 rate. He's purportedly healthy now, but you can't expect him to return to his old form after such a long layoff. Be conservative with your projections, including both his ratio stats and innings, but he's obviously got the potentuial to be a mainstay in your rotation if everything breaks right.

Baz underwent elbow surgery, and he won't throw until early April, but the Rays reportedly don't expect him to miss much time. His pure stuff has always been electric, as he combines elite velocity with an outstanding curveball and slider. Prior to last year, his command was the only thing holding him back, but he blossomed in Double-A and kept his gains in control throughout his three-game stint in the majors. A rough postseason start aside, 2021 was all gravy for Baz, and the Rays undoubtedly expect him to be a contributor to their rotation this year. But he did pitch just 92 innings last season, and given his age, fantasy managers should expect the Rays to cap him at about 130 innings or so, so the missed time for his elbow injury isn't a huge deal as of yet. That still leaves room for Baz to provide plenty of value, so long as the helium on his draft price stays in check.

If Urquidy could avoid dealing with injuries every season, then he'd probably be drafted much earlier, but he's missed time in each of the past three seasons. When he does pitch, he's almost always solid, with a WHIP that hovers around 1.00 thanks to an elite walk rate (4.5%, top four percent of the league). His pure stuff is well above average, with a fastball, slider, and curveball that can all induce weak contact. But, at least as of now, he hasn't yet gotten his strikeout rate to where it needs to be in order to be a true impact starter. There's potential for growth in strikeouts if his slider improves, but draft Urquidy for his safety, not his ceiling, and build in some missed time.

It was a tale of two halves for Rosario, as he slashed .259/.306/.367 in the first half and .309/.339/.457 in the second half. The end result was a good one, as Rosario wound up being a contributor in four of the five rotisserie categories, and is trending up heading into 2022. The biggest issue at this point is the extreme weakness of the Guardians' lineup, which is projected to be one of the worst in baseball. That's going to significantly cut into Rosario's counting stats and depress his value. But the options to help your batting average and generally contribute everywhere are few and far between, so Rosario should be no worse than a high-end bench player for your team.

Torkelson looks poised to start the year in the majors with the Tigers at first base, and there is a lot of reason to be excited after he blazed through three levels of the minors last year. He likely won't hit for much average, but he's got an exceptional eye at the plate (his lowest walk rate at any level last was 13%) and he hit 30 home runs in 121 games total in 2021. He's just 22 years old so don't be surprised if he struggles at first. But particularly in keeper formats, and even in redraft leagues, the upside is so strong that he should be a late-round target everywhere.

Ryan had a nice cup of coffee in the majors last year until the Tigers beat him up to inflate his overall numbers. There's been a lot of hype around the youngster but his stuff isn't overwhelming. His fastball is an enigma, in that it sits at just 91 MPH but batters just can't hit it (.172 BAA). If he can sustain that, along with his better than average slider, then there could be success for the full year, especially with his control. But more than likely, you're looking at a league average fantasy starter, one who will have more perceived than actual value.

Laureano has 28 games remaining on his suspension for PEDs, and given the dearth of talent on the A's, most fantasy managers are likely not going to target him during their drafts. But he's one of just a handful of players who are capable of putting up a 25-15 line over the course of a full season, and his eight steals over the first month last year showed how he could likely steal 25 if he really wanted to. There's not a ton to love otherwise about his offensive game, and his batting average probably won't help very much. But if you can deal with his absence for the first month of the season, he'll offer a decent power-speed combo, albeit one without many other helpful stats.

Suarez has continued to hit for power but his batting average has fallen off a cliff the last two seasons to just .199. Other than the fact that he had shoulder surgery just before the 2020 season, there's nothing really to explain. Almost all of his underlying metrics and quality of contact data look nearly identical to how they have his whole career, and he's just entering his age-30 season. But whatever the reason, Suarez is now a batting average drain, and he'll likely hit fewer home runs after being traded to Seattle. There's still plenty of value there, as he should still be a plus contributor in homers and RBI. But hope for a .230 batting avaerage as his ceiling at this point.

Ryu has always relied on his outstanding changeup and cutter, but both were hit hard last year. He still didn't walk many batters but his home run rate spiked while his strikeout rate plummeted. Ryu needs his secondary stuff to be successful, as his fastball barely sits at 90 miles per hour and has never been effective. Was 2021 a blip or the beginning of a decline? The good news for fantasy managers is that they should find out quickly this year, because either Ryu is inducing weak contact and getting swings and misses early, or you can cut bait. But given his pedigree and long track record, taking a late-round flier on him isn't a terrible idea.

Kittredge tallied eight saves last season, and should be in line for the bulk of the opportunities early in the year with Pete Fairbanks dealing with a strained lat. He's had success for several years now, relying on his excellent command and his fastball-slider combination. Based on pure stuff, if we knew Kittredge would be the closer all year, he'd be way up the reliever ranks. But fantasy managers know by now that you cant trust a Rays reliever, so book 15 saves for Kittredge for now. Anything else is gravy.

Garver moved to Texas this offseason and even though he'll play at least half his games in a pitcher-friendly park, it's still a great move for his value. Garver has never had more than 359 plate appearances in a season, but he should easily top 400 this year, and he's going to bat behind Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Garver doesn't strike out a ton for a catcher and has as much power as nearly anyone at the position, so 20 home runs should be the bare minimum if he stays healthy. Draft him late but fully understand that he has top-five catcher upside.

Lowe had plenty of exciting moments last year, especially early in the season, and ultimately ended up with a respectable 18 home runs and eight steals, along with a .264 batting average. He'll have significantly more help this year in the Texas lineup with the additions of Corey Seager, Mitch Garver, and Marcus Semien, so he can likely top the 147 combined runs and RBI he finished with last year. And if his above average exit velocity and hard hit rate can manifest itself into more power, it could be a big year for Lowe.

Houck will begin the year in the rotation despite an uneven spring, and he showed a lot of upside last year. His strikeout rate sat at 30.5% while his walk rate was just 7.4%, and his 3.52 ERA was inflated according to all metrics. He's got an outstanding slider, which is what really propels his success, but his lack of other pitches in his arsenal often forces him to go deep into counts and shortens his outings. He should be on your sleeper list because he has huge potential, but understand that if he struggles, he could be moved to the bullpen, even with Chris Sale currently on the shelf.

Schoop is rarely talked about during prep season, but he has hit at least 21 home runs in each of his last five full seasons. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but that level of consistency in power from a second baseman is unusual and impressive. As usual, Schop was again among the league leaders in maximum exit velocity (117.1 MPH, a career high), and his hard hit rate was nearly five percentage points higher than his career average. The Tigers' lineup should be stronger this year with the addition of Javier Baez, and considering that Schoop is just 30 years old and has shown no signs of decline, there's every reason to expect his boring but stealthily productive numbers once again.

Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.

Barnes was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first half of the season, harnessing his control and dominating with his fastball/cuveball combination. But he fell apart in the second half, seeing his ERA rise by almost four points. There's speculation that his decline was related to MLB cracking down on foreign substances but, either way, the first half version of Barnes disappeared. His job security was in doubt heading into the year, but the Red Sox didn't bring anyone into challenge him and the biggest internal competitior for the job, Garrett Whitlock, has been stretched out for a starter or long-relief role. Expect Barnes to begin the year as the closer but whether he remains all year is anyone's guess. Draft him as a low-end second reliever and hope we say the first-half 2021 version of him.

 

There's no doubting McCullers's stuff at this point. Already armed with an elite curveball, he added an equally dominant slider to the mix last season (.150 BAA, .242 wOBA), and set a career-high in innings with 162.1. Unfortunately, he ended the year on the shelf with an elbow injury and is now delayed in the spring because of a flexor tendon strain.The fact that he is still dealing with an injury at this point is extremely worrisome, especially for a pitcher with a history of elbow trouble. Drop him way down your draft boards, and take him only if you have plenty of depth or you are in desperate need of upside.

Dalbec has a ton of power, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average and maximum exit velocity. But he also struck out often, 34.4% of the time, which led to a middling .240 batting average despite him hitting the ball hard consistently. That's likely what we'll see again in his second year, though with more job security and perhaps a minor step up. Dalbec is one of a handful of 25-homer bats going very late in drafts, but he has enough upside to hit 35 without too much needing to go right. That makes him the ideal bench player or corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues.

Fantasy managers have wondered for years what Gray would look like out of Coors Field, and now they get their chance to see. Gray has the pure stuff to succeed - a fastball that sits at 95 MPH, a strong slider, and decent command. If he benefits from moving not just out of Coors but to a pitcher's park in Texas, as everyone expects, then we could finally see a decent WHIP with a sub-4.00 ERA. He is 30 years old now, so this is a lot of hypotheticals for a veteran such as him. But he's definitely worth a gamble late in your draft.

Soto was decent last year once he took over as the closer, posting 18 saves on the season with a 3.39 ERA. But his walk rate was an abysmal 14.5%, leading to a 1.35 WHIP, which just isn't sustainable. The Tigers don't have an elite bullpen but Michael Fulmer and Jose Cisnero can close in a pinch. With the uncertainty and Soto's control issues, don't bank on more than 20 saves.

Mize's overall numbers were impressive in 2021, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But his expected stats suggested he was incredibly lucky, and his 19.3% strikeout rate wasn't helping fantasy managers. Mize is young and both his fastball and slider, which are already league average or better, can continue to improve as he grows as a pitcher, and the Tigers are likely to loosen the reins a bit with his innings. He's an ideal late-round pick for your bench given his upside, but don't get into the season relying on him as anything more than your last starter.

Bader has always been known as a defensive outfielder, but his offensive game picked up last year. He cut his strikeout rate six points from his career mark and set a career best in home runs (16) and RBI (50), Bader has never had more than 427 plate appearances in a season, but he could easily steal 20 bases if stays healthy, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. Consider him akin to Tommy Pham around his prime in a best-case scenario, and given his ADP, he's a solid investment.

Kepler's expected stats suggest he got pretty unlucky last year, as they looked a lot like his 2019 season where he hit 38 home runs and batted .252. On the plus side, he did swipe 10 bases, the first time he had reached double digits in that category in his career. His true outcome likely lies somewhere between his 2019 season and last year's numbers, and he's more of a .240, 20-homer bat. The bigger problem this year is that the Twins' lineup likely won't be strong, and his counting stats will take a hit. Kepler can fill in for you, just don't rely on him as a starter.

McKenzie's overall numbers from last year look rough, as he pitched to a 4.95 ERA and had an 11.7% walk rate. But he was significantly better after he returned from the minors in the second half of the season and at least offered hoped for this year. McKenzie is incredibly slight and he needs to improve his command and the effectiveness of his fastball to become a reliable fantasy starter. But he's worth a late flier given his pedigree.

Vaughn's rookie season was a little unfair, as he was thrust into the outfield despite little experience there when Eloy Jimenez suffered a serious injury in the spring. His 15 home runs in 127 games as a rookie showed his potential, but his 21.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than projected. He'll likely see at-bats from several positions this year, as he plays outfield, first base, and DH, and it's likely that an advanced college bat such as his will take a step forward this year. Expect a good 20% increase on all his numbers across the board, which should make him startable, but not quite a fantasy superstar.

Ober is a really intriguing name to watch this year, as his strikeout rate and elite command have all the makings of an impact fantasy starter. He gave up way too many homers last year (1.95/9 innings), but that's due for regression given his minor-league track record. His stuff isn't overwhelming, and he sits at just about 92 MPH on his fastball. But his pedigree and performance last year are good enough for you to take a shot on late in your drafts.

It should be pretty accepted by now that Civale is not going to morph into an above-average fantasy starter. His velocity is sub-par, his strikeout rate is mediocre at best, and he'll be pitching behind one of the worst lineups in baseball. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA all suggest that he was lucky last year, so really, if you're looking for reasons to be optimistic that Civale can take a leap forward, there just aren't any from last year. Spend your draft capital on someone with more upside, even in the later rounds.

Sewald is a fine reliever and he upped his strikeout rate to an impressive 39.4% last year, one of the best marks in the majors. His expected stats (.182 xBA, .262 xWOBA) were pristine, and he offered plenty of hope that he could hold the Mariners' closer job if given the opportunity. That last part is the operative phrase, however, as Seattle is likely looking at some form of committee between Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Diego Castillo, and Ken Giles. Sewald isn't a bad late-round candidate for his ratios alone, and he should add on at least a few saves even if he doesn't win the job outright.

Santander dealt with a litany of injuries last year to his lower body, so the fact that he still popped 18 home runs in 100 games is rather impressive. He's admitted he is not 100% healthy after last year, which is obviously concerning with the season on the verge of beginning. Nevertheless, given Santander's ADP, he's well worth drafting. He's got 25 home runs in his bat easily if he can remain healthy, and his defense is so strong that he'll remain in the lineup even if he struggles offensively to start as he finds his footing. He rarely walks and so his runs scored total will never help you, but he's fine as a cheap outfield bat that always gets overlooked in fantasy.

 

 

Trivino is going to begin the year as the closer for the A's after racking up 22 saves last season. He throws hard and mixes his pitches extremely well for a reliever, but he struggles with his control at times and was a bit lucky last year. The A's should be wone of the worst teams in baseball after trading away many of their impact players, so saves may be hard to come by in any event. But there aren't many relievers who are guaranteed to have the ninth-inning to themselves to start the season, and Trivino is one of them. That makes him worth drafting everywhere.

If they gave out fantasy points for soft contact, Lopez would be one of your leaders. He has five home runs in three combined seasons, and his career high in RBI is 43. He has some speed, as his 22 stolen bases showed last year, and he shouldn't hurt you in batting average. But batting ninth in a mediocre Kansas City lineup, with zero power upside, is just not a formula for success. There are better places to spend your late-round draft capital.

 

 

 

Kikuchi's MLB career has been underwhelming thus far, as he's clocked in with nearly a 5.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He'll head to a Toronto team that managed to harness Robbie Ray's pure stuff, so maybe they'll do the same with Kikuchi, but it will take a leap of faith on the part of fantasy managers to draft him expecting that. He does have decent raw stuff - both his cutter and slider can be borderline dominant when he's on and his fastball can be successful when he gets that little extra bit of velocity, like he showed early last year. But ultimately, Kikuchi's pitch mix is not strong enough to overcome hi lack of command, and considering how high his home run rate was in Seattle, it's unlikely things will improve in Toronto. Maybe there's a step forward but, again, it's largely wishful thinking at this point.

 

Barlow saved 18 games between the majors and the minors last year, putting up excellent ratios. He'll get the first opportunity to close in Texas, but he doesn't have a lengthy track record with being the stopper, so the leash probably isn't that long. That's not a great thing considering his ERA metrics were far worse than his actual numbers and his walk-rate is sub par. Barlow is a closer, so he should be drafted, but don't go in expecting 25 saves given the risks.

 

 

 

Whitlock pitched out of the bullpen last year and many speculated that he might be a candidate to close this season after Matt Barnes struggled down the stretch. But instead he's being stretched out and is battling it out for a rotation spot. If he fails, he'll likely be a long-reliever and have little fantasy value. But, if he does lock down a starting spot, he has a great deal of upside. His fastball sits at 95 miles per hour and both his changeup and slider are above average. Monitor the reports as we head into the season but keep him on your radar in case he does land in the rotation.

Urshela was moved to Minnesota this offseason where he'll man third base and likely bat in the bottom third of the order. When healthy, he's a high-average, 20-homer bat who will chip in everywhere but steals. But his margin for error is fairly thin given how mediocre his quality of contact is and with his poor walk rate. Given that his surrounding llineup and home park took a pretty drastic step down, he's really just an AL-only option at this point.

Kiner-Falefa had eight home runs and 20 steals last season, but he was the ultimate compiler with 677 plate appearances. He'll move to a better lineup and home park with the Yankees but, realistically, his value was at his ceiling last year. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard or get on base much, but his defense should keep him in the lineup enough to again compile enough stats to at least be interesting for fantasy. But "interesting" is basically his ceiling.