2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Ronald Acuna Jr. appeared in 119 games last year, a significantly higher number than the original projection of a July return from his torn ACL injury. Indeed, the 25-year-old came back in late April, immediately began stealing bases, and rewarded fantasy managers who used a high draft pick on him. While his slugging percentage was down significantly, a lot of that can be attributed to working back from the injury. His EV and HardHit% certainly showed no signs of slowing down, and he remains an on-base machine batting at the top of a fearsome lineup. Acuna should return to his former self with the extra time post-surgery. Fantasy managers can draft him with confidence.

Trea Turner cashed in on his elite speed/power combination and signed an 11-year, $300 million contract to join the reigning National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies. The 29-year-old scored 101 runs and tallied 100 RBI, often batting behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in L.A. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect a repeat RBI performance, given that he is almost assuredly going to bat leadoff in Philly, but repeating a 20 HR/100 R season is likely as Citizens Bank plays well to right-handed power. Where Turner catapults to No. 1 is the addition of stolen bases. He had 27 of them in 2022, but if the new baserunning rules indeed make it easier to run, his elite 24.7 ft/sec sprint speed could see him flirt with 40 in 2023. Philly has no problem letting their guys run (ranked seventh in SB attempts), and they're not going to lock up their new toy on arrival. Draft him and enjoy.

Heading into the season, Juan Soto is the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, which feels ridiculous to say about a guy who still ended with a WAR of 5.2. The first half of 2022 found him in a terrible lineup, so opposing pitchers walked him 95 times in 436 plate appearances. Reports also surfaced that he had turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from Washington, and soon, the HR Derby winner headed to San Diego with expectations as big as the contract he turned down. He struggled with the Padres, slashing .236/.388/.390 with only six homers and 16 RBI in 52 games, but he also took a trip to the NLCS. Fantasy managers can expect a course correction in 2023, somewhere in the vicinity of 30+ HR, 110+ RBI, and an elite .400+ OBP. With the addition of Xander Bogaerts, the return of Fernando Tatis, Jr., and the presence of Manny Machado, this is a real-life team you want multiple pieces of in fantasy. Soto is worth every penny of a top draft pick.

As Mookie Betts enters his age-30 season, there is some expected decline in a few areas (fly ball rate increased but led to a lower ground ball EV/BABIP). Still, his elite on-base skills continue to increase his value in fantasy leagues, especially considering that he bats leadoff in one of the most explosive lineups in baseball. He played in 142 games in 2022, batting first in the lineup in all of them. It is difficult to predict what effect the new running rules will have on his SB total, but fantasy managers can safely count on 10-15 in this area. However, his 30+ HR, 100+ runs, and solid advanced metrics will contribute across the board, and he is worthy of a late first-round pick. The fact that Dave Roberts might deploy him enough at 2B to give him that eligibility is just icing.

After a volatile offseason that saw him sign with the Dodgers, Freddie Freeman settled in and got to work being the hitting machine fantasy managers have come to know and love. While his HR total dropped to 21, his runs (117), RBI (100), and SB (13) kept him in the fantasy MVP conversation. What we really love, though, are his ratios. He may not duplicate his .325/.407/.511 line again, his three-year average of .312/.415/.563 says that range is possible with his elite skills. Ranking in the 90th percentile in K%, BB%, and xwOBA is all you need to know to feel confident in grabbing the 33-year-old in the second round.

The Brewers took the training wheels off for Corbin Burnes in 2022, allowing him to throw 202 innings after only 167 the year before. The 28-year-old didn't disappoint, striking out 243 batters while feasting on the free-swinging NL Central batters. Some fatigue appeared to set in following the All-Star Break, but overall, his numbers remained elite, with an xFIP of 2.85, a K/9 of 10.83, and a WHIP of 0.97. With no clear-cut SP1 in fantasy this season, Burnes is a solid choice, as he will buoy your pitching categories while pitching in front of a Top 10 defensive team.

Manny Machado took a look at his 2021 numbers and thought they were a little low, so he decided to have one of the best years of his career in 2022, finishing second to Paul Goldschmidt for NL MVP. The two knocks on Machado are that his K% was a career-high of 20.7, and he's not getting faster as he ages, but fantasy managers aren't drafting him for his speed. He is a Top 3 third baseman, providing a bankable 30/100/100 while slashing in the .300/.360/.500 range for fantasy managers who decide to power their infield early in drafts. Additionally, the acquisition of Xander Bogaerts, a more relaxed Juan Soto, and a returning, ringworm-free Fernando Tatis Jr. surround him in the Padres lineup. Machado is a safe but exciting draft pick in the second round.

The Polar Bear was dethroned at the 2022 HR Derby but otherwise had a phenomenal campaign, hitting 40 HR with 131 RBI, 95 runs, and lowering his K% to a career-low 18.7. He had an impressive xwOBA of .354, an ISO of .246, and WRC+ of 143 while batting cleanup in New York. Projections for the 28-year-old look similar to this stat line, though he will have a boosted lineup ahead of him to knock in with the re-signing of Brandon Nimmo, return of Francisco Lindor, and anyone else Steve Cohen decides to add to his luxury tax mountain. The beauty of Alonso is that he has all of the power without cratering your batting average (.271 last season). He remains worthy of a second-round pick in 2023.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the glow-in-the-dark, neon-colored wild card sitting in every fantasy baseball draft of 2023. Tatis missed the entire 2022 season with injuries and a PED suspension in August. The injuries have been addressed: He surgically repaired his torn labrum shortly after his suspension for a nagging shoulder issue that plagued him, and he had surgery on his left wrist in October. The suspension will end on April 20, so fantasy managers don't have to take a long absence into account. It's just every other part of the picture that muddies the water. Tatis's raw skills are phenomenal; he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game, runs extremely well, and gets on base. He will be surrounded by superstar talent in the San Diego lineup, and he will have SS and OF eligibility in 2023, but he probably won't be playing the demanding infield position. If someone could guarantee that 2021 Tatis is who we're getting, he'd be a Top 5 pick, but the variables are numerous, and the impact is unknown. Someone will spend a high-round draft pick on him, so you only have to ask yourself if it will be you.

Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP in 2022, putting together a strong campaign that saw him hit 35 HR with 115 RBI and 105 runs while slashing .317/.404/.578 in his age-34 season. Strangely, all of his underlying metrics were actually worse in 2022 than in 2021 with the exception of his BB% bouncing from 9.9 to 12.1. One striking reason for this was a .368 BABIP, while another was facing a lot of atrocious pitching in the NL Central. His Statcast page reads like a warning when comparing his expected numbers with his actual ones. All of this adds up to that Goldy is due for some regression in 2023, which could be dramatic. The positives are his solid floor, and a good surrounding lineup will keep the numbers afloat. Just make sure you're not paying for his MVP iteration on draft day.

Austin Riley showed up on a lot of "Busts" lists heading into 2022, which caused his draft stock to fall, so the fantasy managers who took the chance were handsomely rewarded with 38 HR, 93 RBI, and 90 runs. Riley sits in the 95th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xSLG, Barrel%, avgEV, MaxEV, and xwOBA, which puts him in a tiny group of batters who can provide power numbers without destroying your ratios. He will strike out and doesn't take as many walks as he should, but the lineup around him provides plenty of protection and a fantastic ceiling for counting stats. The 25-year-old is not making it out of the second round in NFBC drafts, so chances are good his draft stock isn't going anywhere this season.

Aaron Nola had a wildly unlucky 2021 that most fantasy managers were aware of on draft day in 2022. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Nola remains elite in BB% (3.6) and HardHit% (31.6) while allowing weak contact - which is good since his defense consisted of mostly should-be DHs. The 29-year-old picked up an extra 25 2/3 innings of postseason work, the first of his career, bringing his total innings to a career-high 230. Nola is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies, so he will have plenty of motivation to demonstrate his ability to serve as the ace of any staff.

Spencer Strider arrived in MLB in 2022 and promptly helped many a fantasy manager make the playoffs. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. He struggled with free passes, issuing 3.1 walks per nine, but he more than made up for that with a 16.4% swinging strike rate and K% of 38.3. After he signed a six-year, $75 million contract, the Braves should allow him to throw more innings, probably in the 150-160 range, and he should still have RP eligibility, making him a points-league stud as well. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. Draft him with confidence.

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.

Francisco Lindor had an abysmal 2021 after signing a huge contract with the Mets, but he returned to form in 2022, tallying 26 HR, 107 RBI, 98 runs, and 16 SB. He hit .270, though his xBA was only .254. With the Mets starting lineup getting stronger by the day, Lindor should continue to see good counting stats in the 25/80/90 range, and the new stolen base rules may help him get back to 20 in that department. Lindor is the definition of a "safe" pick in a good lineup with some upside, but he won't be returning to 2017-2019 numbers anytime soon.

For most of 2022, Nolan Arenado was in the NL MVP conversation while batting directly behind the guy who eventually won it, Paul Goldschmidt. Two years into his St. Louis tenure, the 31-year-old has put to rest most fantasy manager fears about the lack of the Coors effect. The last time Arenado did not hit 30+ HR with 100+ RBI was in 2014 (ignoring the pandemic-shortened season). His BABIP was a little high (.290), which led to his .293 batting average, so fantasy managers should consider that regression and expect more in the .270 range. Aside from that, though, rostering Arenado is a calm, reliable move worth making if you took bigger risks in the early rounds or if you just want the safest option available at the hot corner.

Michael Harris II played 43 games in Double-A last year before getting called up to the majors and proceeded to hit 19 HR, steal 20 bases, and slash .297/.339/.514 on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year award. At the age of 21, he didn't take many walks and struggled with strikeouts, but these numbers should improve based on his profile in the minors. Harris should be a 20/20 guy for the foreseeable future, and he is surrounded in the lineup by guys who will boost his counting stats. There is a lot of value to be had here.

Brandon Woodruff had a strange 2022 season. He only pitched 153 innings; he missed time due to a diagnosis of Raynaud's Syndrome, which affected the index, middle, and ring fingers on his pitching hand. He still struck out 190 batters and maintained a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but the missed time and increased average exit velocity allowed left something to be desired for fantasy managers. The 13 wins were nice, and his underlying metrics remain stellar, but he comes with a little more risk than previously.

After signing an 8-year, $168 million contract with the Atlanta Braves, Matt Olson did his best to replace franchise icon Freddie Freeman in one of the weirder series of transactions in recent memory. The 28-year-old's numbers were lower than what fantasy managers had come to expect, losing 31 points off his batting average and dropping his OBP from .371 to .325. His K% jumped precipitously (16.8 to 24.3), while his walk rate went the other direction (13.1 to 10.7). The good news is that his expected numbers were all higher than the actuals, and he still hit 34 homers with 86 runs and 103 RBI. Olson played in all 162 games last season, continuing his career of solid durability, so fantasy managers can draft him with the expectation that his numbers will normalize in his second year in Atlanta with a good lineup around him.

Kyle Schwarber strikes out at such a large clip (29.9 K%) that it is easy to miss his dominance in other fantasy categories. In his age-29 season, he played 155 games, led the NL in home runs with 46, scored 100 runs, drove in 94, and stole 10 bases. His OBP was the second-lowest of his career at .323, but his xwOBA was .375, so hopefully, some improvement is in the cards for 2023. Schwarber batted leadoff for the vast majority of the season, but the acquisition of Trea Turner will most likely move him down in the order. It's possible they leave him in the 2-slot, especially until Bryce Harper returns, in which case he will continue to score runs and increase his RBI total. The Phillies will score in bunches, and Schwarber may have multi-position eligibility, depending on your league, which is not a bad fantasy asset to have at all as long as you can absorb the batting average.

Jazz Chisholm gave fantasy managers a 60-game taste of his true potential in 2022 before being shelved with back and knee injuries. His numbers were greatly improved from 2021 - he took more walks and struck out less while hitting 14 homers and stealing 12 bags in the limited time frame. Chisholm should enter his age-25 season healthy, though he will probably lose SS eligibility in most formats. However, he still offers clear 20-20 potential at the shallower 2B position with the hope he will continue where he left off in 2022.

Ozzie Albies played in only 64 games in 2022, losing time to a broken foot and then a broken pinkie finger. There is nothing to garner from his numbers due to the small sample size, though his injuries should be behind him heading into Spring Training. If we look at his three-year trends from the last three full seasons he played, the 25-year-old projects to be in the 20/15 range for HR and SB. His true asset, though, is his ability to score runs in a potent lineup. He will probably strike out more than we'd like and not take enough walks, but if the speed and power come back to near normal, he's one of the top second basemen on the board in a very shallow position pool.

Some fantasy managers refuse to "pay" for catchers in a similar way to how some refuse to "pay" for saves, but J.T. Realmuto is the one catcher worth the price on draft day. The 31-year-old smacked 22 home runs and stole 21 bases while slashing .276/.342/.478 for the National League Champions. His oWAR of 5.4 was eighth in the NL overall and first for catchers by a wide range, and he is in the 86th percentile in sprint speed among ALL players. The best part is that none of these numbers are outliers with expected regression. He has never played fewer than 125 games in a full season, including the six years before the arrival of the NL DH, where he got some extra at-bats on days off. He should give fantasy teams consistent production from a position where that is almost impossible to find.

Zack Wheeler returned from his 2021 Cy Young runner-up campaign and defended his position as a top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. In 153 innings, the 31-year-old struck out 163 batters and ended the campaign with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Wheeler will take the ball every fifth day and deliver a strikeout per inning, solid ratios, and should be a good source of wins for the defending National League Champions and your fantasy squad.

Josh Hader may come at a discount in 2023 due to those who fixate on a stretch of outings in August 2022 or look only at his final ERA. The surface stats are much uglier than fantasy managers have been used to seeing. The 28-year-old ended with a 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, both of which are career highs by a longshot. Looking beneath that, however, shows that his xERA was 3.51 with an xFIP of 2.94. His K% and Whiff% remain in elite status, and he still walked away with 36 saves. This is still a player with Top-3 closer abilities, so fantasy managers in leagues where others shy away due to a few outings in August should draft, sit back, and enjoy.

Julio Urias ended the 2022 season with a shiny 2.16 ERA, but this belies some concerning underlying numbers that pushed his xFIP to 3.81. The 26-year-old benefited from an excellent defense and an unsustainable .229 BABIP, while his HR/9 went up to 1.2. Those are the negatives. On the positive side, his spin rates are still above the 90th percentile, and he threw 175 innings, taking the ball every fifth day like clockwork. For 5x5 leagues, Urias finished third in the majors with 17 wins last year, and while it's not great to chase that category, he seems a safe bet to do well in it. Draft him expecting some regression, but he is still a very good pitcher on a behemoth of a team with a great defense.

Devin Williams played second fiddle to Josh Hader for most of four seasons before finally getting handed the ball after Milwaukee traded the latter to San Diego. Out of 14 Statcast pitching categories, the 28-year-old ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in nine of them. His weakness - BB% - is the thing that keeps him in Tier 2 of closers for most fantasy analysts, but his talent and abilities cannot be ignored during drafts. Milwaukee is a pitching-heavy team that will offer plenty of save opportunities. Right now, Williams is the clear choice to get the first crack at them and rack up strikeouts for your team while doing so.

In 2022, Max Fried demonstrated that pristine control and location can still be effective in today's Triple-Digit SP Society. In 185 innings pitched, he struck out 170 batters while walking only 32. He limits hard contact and uses a four-pitch combination to sit in the 91st percentile of chase rate. The 29-year-old will give fantasy managers six innings in most games, and he will anchor your SP ratios to sit in the 2.70/1.05 range. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts.

Yu Darvish is an often-overlooked starter in fantasy drafts, be it his age or his past inflated ERA that drive people away. His 2022 numbers, however, rewarded whoever took him two rounds too late, finishing 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics looks like a giant red flag. His value is great in the sixth or seventh round, and even though we don't chase wins, he plays for a team who should put him in line for many of them. He turns 37 in August, but he could be a sneaky great pick on draft day.

Injury-averse fantasy managers missed out on Zac Gallen's first healthy season in 2022, which saw him start 31 games and throw 184 innings. He struck out 192 batters on his way to a 2.54 ERA and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The 27-year-old throws his fastball almost half the time but finishes hitters off with his curveball and changeup equally. He limits hard contact, and his 4.09 K/BB ratio is in the upper echelon of the majors. Arizona is on the upswing, but the Diamondbacks are often forgotten about on draft day. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74.

Corbin Carroll mashed his way through the minor league system and arrived in Arizona for his debut in 2022. He played in 32 games, hitting four homers and stealing two bases while slashing .260/.330/.500 in the small sample size. Carroll's upside is in the 30/30 range, and he should have no trouble sticking as the everyday centerfielder with his plus-defense. He may suffer some of the typical rookie issues, but all signs point to a quick adjustment and solid fantasy production.

Starling Marte had a good 2022 season, but injuries prevented him from being a truly great fantasy asset. In 118 games, he slashed .292/.347/.468, buoying the ratios for fantasy managers in roto leagues. He hit 16 homers, his most since 2019, but he only stole 18 bases, a severe drop off from the 47 he snagged the year before. He is in the top 10 percent in maxEV and xBA, and the new SB rules could benefit someone with his speed. Just beware you'll probably get closer to 500 plate appearances than the preferred 600 with his injury history.

Xander Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres in the offseason, joining what should be a top-10 offense in all of baseball. The 30-year-old comes with some red flags for 2023, however. He slashed .307/.377/.456, but his expected numbers suggest his stat line should have been closer to .259/.363/.383. His BABIP was an unsustainable .362, and his barrel%, exit velocity, sweet spot%, and walk rate all declined from 2021. Bogaerts will be a solid, but not elite, producer in a lineup with Juan Soto and Manny Machado. Be prepared for a letdown if you reach too high for him.

If anyone needs a change of scenery in order to maximize his talent, Bryan Reynolds is that guy. Pittsburgh has a good long history of trading great players once they reach arbitration, so chances are that he will don a different uniform come Opening Day. We can't blame the Pirates for Reynolds's increased K% (23.0) and decreased BB% (9.1%), but we certainly can put the onus on them for his putrid runs and RBI numbers. Reynolds hit 27 HR and slashed .262/.345/.461 and yet scored 74 runs and knocked in only 62. The 28-year-old is too talented to leave on the board, so fantasy managers can draft him and send a quick wish into the universe that he plays basically anywhere else in 2023.

Will Smith is the catcher you draft when you want productivity from the position but don't want to pay J.T. Realmuto's price. He bats in the middle of a stacked Dodgers lineup, driving in 87 runs and swatting 24 home runs. He is a solid producer who doesn't strike out a ton and makes good contact when he swings. Dave Roberts used him strategically as a DH, which gave the 27-year-old 578 plate appearances without him wearing down like catchers often do. Expect more of the same in 2023.

Ryan Helsley used a devastating three-pitch combo to emerge as one of the top closers in baseball in the latter half of 2022. He added velocity to his fastball, resulting in a K/9 that jumped from 8.94 to 13.08 and grabbing 19 saves for the Red Birds. He should enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer in St. Louis, and if he continues to throw in the triple digits as often as he did last year, he can shore up your saves category while helping your ratios and strikeouts. He should easily be in the top 10 relief pitchers taken on draft day.

Oneil Cruz headed to Triple-A following Spring Training because while the Pirates predictably floundered around the first one-third of the season. When Cruz did make it to Steel City, he struggled with strikeouts, sitting in the first percentile in K% at 34.9%. He countered that by being in the 100th percentile in maxEV when he made contact. Over the last month of the season, he showed some patience and ability to get on base, which allowed him to get 15 SB to go along with his 17 HR. A full season from Cruz has sky-high potential, but he still plays in Pittsburgh with little in the way of talent around him, especially if Bryan Reynolds leaves by trade.

Dansby Swanson will enter his age-29 season with a freshly signed 7-year, $177 million with the Chicago Cubs. He played in all 162 games in 2022, swatting 25 HR with 96 RBI, 99 runs, and 18 stolen bases. The park switch to Wrigley Field could add one or two homers, but he may benefit from the new rules regarding swiping bags. Even with the big contract, Swanson has proven that his durability is consistent, and he should bat at the top of the order, both of which make him a valuable fantasy asset.

Willy Adames had the second-most home runs by a shortstop (31) in 2022, finishing only two behind Corey Seager for the lead. He went 8-for-11 in stolen bases, scored 83 runs, and tallied 98 RBI. So why isn't he begin drafted higher than his current ADP of 101? His batting average was .238 which perfectly matched his xBA. He did cut down on his strikeout rate, but he can be something of a free swinger. Still, in leagues with an SS and MI slot, fantasy managers can do a lot worse than a 30/10 guy in the ninth round.

Tommy Edman's fantasy value ebbs and flows with where he bats in the Cardinals' order. The switch hitter did everything better when St. Louis put him in the leadoff slot, which led to an overall .265/.324/.400 slash line. His primary category contributions are runs (95) and stolen bases (32). He doesn't take a ton of walks but doesn't strike out much, either. If he indeed gets to bat in front of the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, he will be worth a higher pick and should benefit from the new SB rules.

Joe Musgrove has been a picture of pitching consistency over the past two seasons, with his stats almost eerily similar. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and ERA. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). Drafting the 30-year-old is a smart idea if you pick an SP1 with more upside (and more risk) because you know what you're going to get. With a stacked Padres lineup and a propensity to collect quality starts, Musgrove checks all the boxes for one of the highest floors in the 2023 SP pool.

Tyler O'Neill experienced a litany of injuries in 2022 that inhibited the power he demonstrated in 2021. His HR tally dropped from 34 to 14 and games played went from 132 to 96. Not all was lost, though, as the 27-year-old showed off more of his speed, stealing 14 bases, which was only one less than his 2021 total. There is a lot to love about O'Neill in fantasy formats, but there is a lot to question as well. If he returns to 2021 form, he can be a five-category contributor, but he comes with plenty of risk in 2023.

Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. He still has elite breaking balls that limit hard contact and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Fantasy managers need only remember that his days of 30 starts are long gone, and he will have one or two IL stints during the season. Assuming his ADP remains reasonable, he is an asset to your staff.

Christian Yelich played in 154 games in 2022, his highest total since his last year in Miami in 2017. The 31-year-old hits the ball hard, in the 90th percentile in HardHit% and maxEV, and his BB% is a stellar 13.1%. His primary downfall when it comes to fantasy value is his 58.6% ground ball rate, which limits his HR and RBI totals. Of note, he increased his stolen bases, and this trend could continue in 2023 with the new baserunning rules. He is projected as a 15/15 outfielder and worth a look in the double-digit rounds.

Camilo Doval went 27 for 30 in save opportunities in 2022 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and he will enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer for the Giants. While his BB% is higher than we'd like from a truly elite closer, he creates weak contact thanks to a 99-mph cutter. Even with the walks, Doval is a Tier 2 closer you can get in the seventh or eighth round.

Logan Webb flashed his strikeout upside in 2021, leading to fantasy managers overvaluing him in 2022. Instead, his K/9 reverted back to his earlier 7.63 range versus the 9.59 K/9 outlier. Webb utilized his slider and changeup more last season, which helped to protect his ERA and WHIP. Even though the Giants finished last in defensive runs saved, his high ground ball rate didn't hurt him. Webb is more of an SP3/SP4 now and should be drafted as such.

Blake Snell pitched exactly the same number of innings in 2022 as he did in 2021, but he slashed three percentage points off his walk rate to lower his ERA and WHIP to fantasy-relevant levels. He will always strike out a high percentage of batters (32% last season), but his health is a question mark so expect him to miss some time if you draft him.

Raisel Iglesias signed a four-year deal with the Angels to be their closer before the 2022 season and found himself collecting holds out of the Braves bullpen in August. The 33-year-old still has a K% in the 92nd percentile in the league, though this did drop from 37.7% to 31.7% last year. Atlanta has a number of closer options, though Iglesias is the most experienced of the bunch and should get the first crack at it. He's a Tier 3 closer with a higher upside if he lands the job.

Christian Walker was ridiculously underrated/ignored in 2022 given the fantasy production he was putting out. The 31-year-old turned his Statcast page crimson, landing in the 92nd percentile in xSLG and xwOBA, two important categories to show out in. Walker raised his HR total from 10 to 36 and ended his 160-game campaign with 94 RBI and 84 runs scored. An improved offense around him should only boost his numbers in 2023.

Kris Bryant in Coors Field was supposed to be a party and instead, the guest of honor got plantar fasciitis and played in only 42 games for the entire year. The Coors effect isn't going to bring the 31-year-old back near his prime, but he should put up better numbers in 2023 and recently stated he would be ready to go for Spring Training. He might be an empty batting average/OBP player, though, so don't expect much more than 15 HR if you pick him.

Jake McCarthy is a vessel for stolen bases in the later rounds of drafts. He is exactly the type of guy you wait for once you've built up your other categories. He could pop double-digit homers, but all fantasy managers need to care about is that he keeps running well (23-for-26 SB in 2022) and with impunity.

If you feel the need for pitching speed, Hunter Greene offers you all that and then some. Unfortunately, he also offers 3.4 BB/9 as he sometimes isn't sure where his 100-mph throws will end up. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. The 23-year-old is projected to have a K-rate north of 30%, and he will certainly boost a fantasy team's strikeout count. He pitches for a terrible team in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, so there will be growing pains, but if he harnesses his talent, he will be a steal at his current ADP.

The bad news for Nick Castellanos was a 46-point drop in his batting average in 2022. Other bad news includes a Statcast page that is almost entirely blue, meaning he was ineffective in almost every meaningful statistical category during his first season in Philadelphia. He is not projected to be quite as much of a disaster in 2023 - his HR total should creep back above 20 instead of 13 - but a 20/70/70/5 guy with a .260 batting average and low OBP isn't someone you have to reach for in a draft.

Willson Contreras signed a 5-year, $87.5 million deal with the Cardinals and will presumably bat in an advantageous position in their lineup. He shaved seven percentage points off his K-rate, which will probably revert to somewhere in the middle in 2023. The 30-year-old has always had good on-base skills and 20-HR power, and his RBI total should hover in the 60-70 range. While he is a significantly worse pitch framer than the Hall of Famer he is replacing, St. Louis will find a way to keep his bat in the lineup. The only concern is the continued leg and ankle injuries that he experienced last year, but he comes at a discount and remains a C1 in this draft.

David Bednar holds the illustrious title of Best Closer on Worst Team heading into 2023. The 28-year-old mixes a 96-mph fastball with a 77-mph curveball and 90-mph changeup for a 32.9 K%. Even though he had an ERA of 2.61, his FIP was 2.44, which is a product of pitching in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball. Pittsburgh may not win many games, but Bednar is clearly the closer and should be dominant in any uniform.

Lance Lynn suffered a knee injury late in Spring Training that cost him two months of the season. When he returned, it looked like all of the skills that made him so highly sought after had disappeared. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. From August til the end of the season, however, he carried a 2.43 ERA and returned to his low-walk, low-HR self. Lynn is a prime candidate to climb draft boards if he shows out during Spring Training given his history as a workhorse.

 

Nick Lodolo arrived on the scene and shortly thereafter hit the IL with a back injury. When he returned, he dazzled fantasy managers with his 11.41 K/9 and 3.49 xFIP. Yes, the Reds are going to be absolutely terrible, so there probably won't be many wins. But Lodolo is a strikeout machine (131 in 103 innings) and has the stuff to improve on his rookie numbers with a full season. Go get him.

Injuries limited Freddy Peralta to only 78 innings in 2022, but he put up elite numbers when he did take the mound. He allows weak contact and his xERA sits in the 90th percentile. The only question for fantasy managers is whether or not you believe he can stay healthy. If you think he'll cross the century mark in innings pitched, he's a steal at his current ADP.

Amed Rosario's numbers in 2022 looked quite similar to the ones from 2021. He hit 11 homers, stole 18 bases, and slashed .283/.312/.403 in 153 games. He still has a microscopic walk rate, but he also took four points off his K%. A lot of his fantasy worth is tied up in whether or not he continues to bat at the top of the lineup. It's worth watching in Spring Training, and if he routinely bats behind Jose Ramirez, drop him in your rankings a bit as the counting stats will be affected. However, he can be a mid-round source of stolen bases either way.

 

While Father Time will claim all athletes at some point, the 39-year-old Morton seems to have an agreement in place to avoid being claimed yet. He started 31 games, pitched 172 innings, and struck out 205 batters last season, which makes that one of the quietest 200-strikeout seasons in memory. He continues to have an elite curve ball to match his 95-mph fastball and plays for the high-scoring Atlanta Braves. He is a safe pick in the late rounds of drafts.

Seiya Suzuki arrived to MLB and kicked off his career in the States with a bang, hitting four HR and getting on base at a .398 clip. A finger injury derailed his season, but he finished the year strong. Suzuki struggled to adjust to the different levels of pitching, but he is a prime candidate for a bounceback season. His sophomore campaign should be a boon to fantasy teams, and he will come at a discount.

While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Wright was an entirely different pitcher in 2022 than he was the year before, cutting his BB% from 14.3 to 7.2 and raising his K% from 17.1 to 23.6. He ended with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.16, and 174 strikeouts in 180 1/3 innings. Even accounting for some increase in ERA, his xFIP last year was 3.30, so the underlying metrics don't suggest extreme regression. Wright will be a helpful SP3 who can be had in the tenth round of most drafts.

 

It will be very important to keep track of where Happ is batting in the revamped Cubs lineup. He batted third or fourth for most of 2022, but his skillset reads like a No. 2. With many new faces around him, there is a chance he could drop down, which would harm his value. He falls into the "walk year" category, so he might outperform his projections. However, his .336 BABIP is unsustainable and will take a bite out of his batting average when it corrects. He is an OF5 being drafted in the OF4 range because of the cliff the position drops off of in drafts.

 

 

 

 

Dustin May had a long road to his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rustiness was apparent when he took the mound for the first time on August 20. He has elite curveball and fastball spin rates, but he was a bit wild with the breaking pitches, which is pretty typical for pitchers coming back. Still just 25, May has a high upside for 2023, which would make him a steal at his current ADP. However, beware the innings limit that is sure to come.

Alexis Diaz is already named the official closer for the Reds, which isn't a testament to his RP prowess, considering Cinci is going nowhere fast. His Statcast page jumps at you with his strikeout ability and limiting hard contact. However, his BB% also stands out for being in the 2nd percentile. Don't get blinded by his 1.84 ERA from last year, either. His xFIP was 3.97, and he hands out free passes like a new business in a strip mall. Make sure your ratios are protected before drafting him for saves.

Nico Hoerner should be the Cubs' everyday second baseman, and he should bat near the top of the lineup. He hit 10 HR and stole 20 bases while slashing .281/.327/.410 in 2022, even though he appeared in only 135 games. He is an intriguing later-round option who could nicely fill a MI slot and provide some speed/average help.

 

 

 

 

 

Where do you draft the superstar who will only play half the season at most? If you have the IL spots, his current ADP of around 130 makes sense. Even with his torn UCL last season, he still slashed .286/.364/.514 and powered the Phillies to the World Series. The biggest downside is that he most likely does not have OF eligibility in your league, so make sure your UTIL slot is free for him.

 

 

 

Scott Barlow held a lot more fantasy appeal before the Royals went out and signed Aroldis Chapman. Barlow will still get his fair share of save opportunities, but this smells like a closer by committee to start the season.

 

Ke'Bryan Hayes might have some good power hiding inside his offensive toolbox, but if you draft him for steals and batting average help, you'll feel much better about him in your lineup. He is an injury risk after playing in 136 last year and only 96 the year before. We have no illusions that Pittsburgh's lineup is going to boost any of his numbers, but 20 steals from 3B later in the draft is nothing to sneeze at.

Daniel Bard saved 34 saves for the hapless Colorado Rockies last year, and they rewarded him with a two-year extension. Fantasy managers should trust that he will get first crack at saving games, but they should also be aware that the 37-year-old benefited from a career-low .221 BABIP. While this is due to correct, it shouldn't scare you off from making him a top reliever on your squad.