If you were viewing Houston Astros outfielder George Springer as a potential 30/20 guy this season, he says not to count on it.
Springer was on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio with Craig Mish and was asked if fans and fantasy players alike could expect him to steal more bases this season.
“I’ll run when the situation says I’m supposed to,” he said. “With the guys that are up behind me, sometimes if I’m on first I’m in scoring position.”
Ruh-Roh!
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Springer stole 37 bases in the minor leagues during the 2012 season and stole 45 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2013. Then, during the 2015 season, it appeared as if we had a guy that was going to routinely mash 20 or more home runs a season while also swiping 20 or more bases. If last season was anything, it was a reality check in that regard.
If you were relying on Springer being that 25/20 guy for your team, abandon ship. Okay, don’t abandon ship, but quickly come to the realization he’s unlikely to reach top 10 fantasy player status this season simply because of his potential. Our projection system has Springer hitting 29 home runs and stealing just 12 bases. While that’s a slight improvement over the nine stolen bases he had last season, it’s still nothing close to what we all seem to think he’s capable of.
Along with Springer’s comments about running only when the situation calls for it, the fact that he attempted 19 steals and was only successful nine times last year should be another red flag. It doesn’t matter how fast or capable someone is of running if you aren’t able to make the right decisions about how far of a lead to take, when to take that first step, at what point in the pitcher’s delivery to commit to the steal and so forth.
Springer seems like a guy that should be able to top 20 stolen bases a season, but his comments on stealing, the underlying metrics behind his performance on the field and overall base running decisions (not good) paint a different picture.
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Lance Rinker is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Lance, check out his archive or follow him @LanceMRinker.
