It’s the question that’s perplexed drafters for the past few years. Do you draft a quarterback early or do you wait until the later rounds? But what if your leaguemates draft quarterbacks early and you’re worried that you’re going to miss out on one of the startable quarterbacks? What if your league has six-point passing touchdowns? Okay, okay, what about Aaron Rodgers? I mean, he’s in a tier all by himself, right?
I can’t tell you how many times a day I get asked these exact questions. The answer remains the same. While everyone else is out there snatching up quarterbacks early, you’re picking up the pieces, getting players in the third round who should’ve gone in the second round. Players in the fourth round who should have gone in the third round. Rinse and repeat, as necessary.
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It’s unlikely that you’ll see me grab a quarterback early in drafts, simply because they don’t fall far enough for me to consider them a value. You see, everything comes down to replacement value. You cannot find guys like Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette who are guaranteed to get 300-plus touches (barring injury) in the eighth round of your draft. You can find a quarterback who’ll have just as many attempts down there, though. Granted, they won’t be as efficient as someone like Rodgers, but they will have opportunity. Do not pass up guaranteed opportunity at running back and wide receiver in order to take a quarterback.
Today we’ll be going down the rankings and tiers of quarterbacks, just to give you an idea as to when you should be considering them. Again, you may laugh and say there’s no way they’ll fall this far in your draft. Again, consider yourself lucky you play in a league like that, where you can get so much value. But for the most of us, we just want to know when you should consider these quarterbacks, and that’s what we’re here to discuss. I’ve done the same with other positions over the last few weeks, so you can check them out afterwards at the links below.
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Tier One (Round 3-4)
Yes, he’s in a tier all by himself. That still doesn’t mean you draft him any higher than the late third round. As you can see, I was being generous to those of you who feel the need to jump on him if he falls there, though it’s likely he won’t. If you’re of the mindset that he should last even later than that, I made the case for Rodgers in this article right here.
Tier Two (Round 5)
While these two are in fact every-week starters, they don’t belong in the first four rounds where you can get wide receivers who are locked into 100-plus targets or running backs who are on the verge of RB1 value. Despite the perception about Brees being bad on the road, he’s not. The truth is that he’s just not as good as he is at home, which is umm… great. He’s averaged 338 yards and 2.5 touchdowns at home, while averaging 301 yards and 1.9 touchdowns on the road over the last three years. Don’t overthink it. Brady is now 40 years old, which does add some risk to his profile, but also has some of the best weapons he’s ever had around him.
Tier Three (Rounds 6-7)
This is tough, because I know the knocks on both of these guys. Wilson took a step backwards last year, his offensive line is bad, and they brought in Eddie Lacy to run the ball more. One, his legs were completely useless over the start of the season due to injuries, but he really took off over the second half of the season, looking like the quarterback we’ve all come to know and love. Two, his offensive line hasn’t ever been great, but that’s never stopped him. And three, just look at the previous critique of him (the offensive line is bad), so what makes you think Lacy will be able to run behind it? Luck is a top-two quarterback if he’s healthy and maybe No. 1 with the amount of volume he’ll have. If he’s cleared for Week 1, move him into tier two. This is the last tier of the ‘quarterbacks who can start every week.’
Tier Four (Rounds 8-10)
Matt Ryan
Ben Roethlisberger
Kirk Cousins
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Dak Prescott
Cam Newton
This is the group of quarterbacks that you should just be okay with snagging the last one in the tier, and no, I don’t necessarily mean Newton. He’s last in the tier for me, but he’s not being drafted that way, as his current ADP is the QB9. Ryan is due for touchdown regression, but he also threw the ball just 534 times last year. His average amount of attempts the previous four seasons was 627, so even with regression, he’s solid. Roethlisberger has legitimately been bad on the road over the last three years, but with his trio of receivers, it’s hard to see that continue. Cousins has the highest volume of the remaining quarterbacks, though Winston may get close. Mariota simply won’t have enough attempts to get into the next tier this year and Prescott needs more weapons in the passing game.
Tier Five (Rounds 11-14)
Andy Dalton
Derek Carr
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Tyrod Taylor
Eli Manning
This is the area you’ll typically find yourself drafting a quarterback if you stick to the tier list. It’s because the top-12 are gone and the rest of your league is now trying to ‘fill in the rest of their starting spots.’ Meanwhile, you have so much depth at other positions that you’re feeling comfortable snagging your quarterback. Dalton is someone who is borderline tier four, though nobody is drafting him as such. If you read my player profile on him, you’d know that he’s essentially been a top-12 quarterback in four of the last five seasons. Carr is a potential breakout candidate, but it would mean that Marshawn Lynch is a bust (Carr needs the touchdowns). Rivers is on my do-not-draft list because of his schedule over the first nine weeks, while Taylor took a massive hit when the Bills traded away Sammy Watkins. Eli Manning is a bounce-back candidate, though you’ll never want to trust him 100 percent of the time. Heck, maybe not even 60 percent of the time, but the big games will be there.
The Rest
Jay Cutler
Carson Palmer
Carson Wentz
Blake Bortles
Sam Bradford
This is the list of players who should be on your waiver wire that you’ll be able to snag and start if you need to. If you insist on drafting someone like Philip Rivers who has to play the Broncos in Week 1, snag Palmer who’ll play the Lions that week. These guys may have a few good weeks, but it’s unlikely they are fantasy starters more than half the time.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
