Every season is loaded with surprises from Jordan Howard surging to Allen Robinson fading. Today, I’ll attempt to project the top 12 quarterbacks for the 2017 fantasy football season. No, I am not going to just list my rankings–that is cheating. Rather, think of this as my march madness bracket that is trying to get all 67 games correct. In order to get the right idea, we will have to look at recent trends:
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2016 QB1s
- Aaron Rodgers (ADP #2)
- Matt Ryan (ADP #16)
- Drew Brees (ADP #5)
- Andrew Luck (ADP #4)
- Kirk Cousins (ADP #12)
- Dak Prescott (ADP #22)
- Matthew Stafford (ADP #16)
- Tyrod Taylor (ADP #20)
- Blake Bortles (ADP #10)
- Derek Carr (ADP #15)
- Russell Wilson (ADP #3)
- Marcus Mariota (ADP #17)
2015 QB1s
- Cam Newton (ADP #11)
- Tom Brady (ADP #9)
- Russell Wilson (ADP #4)
- Blake Bortles (ADP #30)
- Carson Palmer (ADP #20)
- Drew Brees (ADP #5)
- Aaron Rodgers (ADP #2)
- Kirk Cousins (ADP #28)
- Matthew Stafford (ADP #10)
- Eli Manning (ADP #12)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP #32)
- Phillip Rivers (ADP #14)
We could do more of this, but you get the picture. It is virtually the same every year. About half of the actual QB1s were drafted as QB1s and the other half is a fine mix of respected QBs and total surprises. So as I build my list, don’t be alarmed, as that is precisely what I am going for.
Top 12 Fantasy Football QBs of 2017
QB #12: Joe Flacco (BAL): ADP #25
Flacco is now 31 years old so you’d think we have seen enough from him to know he will never be a QB1, but I beg to differ. Despite a career-high completion percentage last year, his TD% rate was an all-time low and an unsustainable 3.0%. We have seen 5.1% from him, which is likely around his upper-limit. If you put that number together with his league leading 672 pass attempts from last year, we are looking at a ceiling of 35 touchdowns to go with another 4,300+ passing yards. Seeing that Kenneth Dixon is now out for the year, they might even end up throwing 700 times. We have seen Flacco go white hot for a handful of games in the playoffs so perhaps we see that version for an extended stretch in the regular season.
QB #11: Carson Palmer (ARI): ADP #20
After a superb 2015 season where he finished as the QB #5, Palmer got off to a lousy start last year. Most are saying he has hit the wall, but if you look at his final six games and consider that he accomplished all of it without John Brown or a healthy offensive line, you’ll see a far different story. During that time, he went for 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and 1611 yards, which if prorated to a full season would put him at the same 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns that we mentioned for Flacco. With John Brown coming back, a return to the top 5, let alone top 12 is a real possibility.
QB #10: Blake Bortles (JAX): ADP #22
Go on, get your laughs out. I am not saying he is a Super Bowl quarterback. I am not even saying he is an NFL starter, but he has proven to be a legitimate fantasy asset now in back to back years, finishing as QB #4 and QB #9. Yes, I’m aware that they added Leonard Fournette this off-season and intend to run the ball as often as they can, but I’m also aware that they beefed up their offensive line and that the presence of Fournette will put them in the Red Zone more often and take the defenses out of heavy nickle and dime packages. Perhaps the most important issue here is that Bortles played with a bum shoulder last year. Remember that with the same injury, Andrew Luck was merely QB #12 in terms of fantasy points per game. Surely, Bortles will be more efficient than last year that his 2016 disaster.
QB #9: Matt Ryan (ATL): ADP #4
No, I’m not predicting an injury or that Kyle Shannahan’s departure cripples him from MVP to just above average. Rather, this is all about basic touchdown rate regression. Cam Newton‘s went from 4.1 to 3.9 to 5.1 to 4.0 to 7.1 then back down to earth at 3.7 last year. So when Matt Ryan went from a career 4.2 all the way to a stupid 7.1 last season, it leaves me to assume it will end up right around that career mark, as tends to be the case. That would move him from 38 touchdowns to just 25, which is still solid, but nowhere near an MVP.
QB #8: Tyrod Taylor (BUF): ADP #16
I know a lot of people are thinking this one seems especially stupid, but believe it or not, this is actually me predicting negative regression! Last year, Taylor was the QB7 in points per game and the year before? Number 7 once again. Taylor is a quality fantasy quarterback even when Sammy Watkins isn’t healthy, but he IS healthy and over the past 14 games they played together, Watkins’ stats were every bit as good as Antonio Brown‘s previous 14 games. What’s more is that Rex Ryan is gone, so Taylor might actually get to throw the ball in the red zone for once.
QB #7: Phillip Rivers (SD): ADP #14
Please don’t repeat the worn out line that this is Melvin Gordon‘s team. Gordon rushed for less than 4 yards per carry last season and just 3.5 the year before. Sure, he piled on the touchdowns and looks alright on tape, but he is not a world beater. Rivers, on the other hand, is immensely talented. He has never had a good offensive line and quality receiver core at the same time. This year, he is loaded on both fronts with Keenan Allen returning from injury and Hunter Henry on the quick rise. Rivers is always good for 4300+ yards and 30 touchdowns, but this year with the improved support around him, we could see his best season yet.
QB #6: Russell Wilson (SEA): ADP #6
In 2014 and 2015, Wilson was the only QB to finish in the top 3 back to back seasons. Aaron Rodgers didn’t do it, Tom Brady didn’t do it and neither did Drew Brees, just Wilson. The reason he dropped off last season is that he was playing with a bum leg and hardly ran the ball. If they let him loose this year, he has QB #1 upside, but even if not, he is among the most efficient passers in football and is a good bet to be a QB1 and have several huge performances in the process.
QB #5: Andy Dalton (CIN): ADP #18
Don’t even start to say this could never happen. It already has! Back in 2013, Dalton was considered an MVP candidate for awhile until Peyton Manning ran away with things. Dalton finished QB #5 that year and is more often than not a top 12 QB. With A.J. Green back and healthy this season, there is no reason to believe he will finish as a QB2 this year, and there is a possibility that he returns to the top 5. Their defense is the worst it has been since Dalton went under center in Cincy, so they could be playing in some shootouts and picking up garbage time points galore.
QB #4: Drew Brees (NO): ADP #3
Here are the last 5 fantasy years in Brees’ career: QB #3, QB #6, QB #6, QB #2, QB #1. I think it is safe to say he will end up in that same range this season. Yes, Brandin Cooks is gone, but Michael Thomas is only going to get better and Willie Snead was waiting in the wings for his big role. They’ve got multiple strong pass catchers in the backfield and Coby Fleener, who did end up finishing as a TE1 last season, so don’t expect this offense to take a step back in 2017.
QB #3: Matthew Stafford (DET): ADP #15
If you listen to the podcast, you’ve heard me share this stat. Only two players show up multiple times in the top 10 for single season passing yards. Drew Brees is one. The other isn’t Manning or Brady or Dan Marino. It is Stafford. He was top 10 QB each of the past two seasons and is still young in QB-years. The upside is there and he has passed the ball at least 592 pass attempts each of the past six seasons. Detroit’s defense may be the worst we’ve seen from them in 5 years, so they may end up passing even more than usual, which is saying quite a bit.
QB #2: Kirk Cousins (WAS) : ADP #11
Over the past two seasons, only four QBs have thrown for 9,000 yards and wouldn’t you know it, Cousins is one of them. Also in the past two seasons, only Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and Cousins have rushed for at least nine touchdowns. He adds Josh Doctson and Terrell Pryor to the mix this year as well. The only thing missing is touchdown rate. Someone is going to see their TD% spike this year, as is always the case, so if it is Cousins, who happens to be #3 all time in completion percentage, then we could be looking at 4,900 yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. That, friends, is a top 2 QB.
QB #1: Aaron Rodgers (GB) : ADP #1
If Rodgers is healthy, he is nearly a lock to be the #1 QB. He averaged a whopping 23.8 fantasy points per game last year. He was also #1 in 2014 and missed by 3 points in 2012. We are watching the greatest quarterback in NFL history and his name is not Tom Brady. Rodgers has 4.12 TD/INT for his career, which is by far the best in NFL history. His regular season and post season QB rating blows everyone else out of the water too. It is only a matter of time before his career counting stats pile up to Peyton Manning territory.
Notable exclusions
Tom Brady (NE) – While you don’t want to project an injury, his concussions from last season leave me concerned, plus he might just sit out Weeks 15-17 if they wrap up the division early
Andrew Luck (IND) (IND) – Major shoulder issues and may begin the season on the PUP list for 6 weeks
Cam Newton (CAR) (CAR) – Shoulder concerns and the fact that he was among the most inefficient passers last season
Derek Carr (OAK) – Touchdown regression, running scheme, tough schedule and injury concerns
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Hardest pass defense schedule in the NFL plus a running scheme
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – This is a running team and they are bridling Mariota’s use of his legs
Jameis Winston (TB) – The Bucs closed the season against bad pass defenses, but refused to pass because of turnover issues
Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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