Tiered positional rankings have been around forever as a fantasy draft strategy, but it remains a simple and effective way to decide when you should pounce on a player at a given position, and when you might be able to hold off until later. Today, let’s check out this year’s crop of shortstops as we enter the final draft days before the season starts.
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Top of the Line
Although Trea Turner has yet to even play 100 games in a season, he’s the definitive number one shortstop as one of only a handful of players projected to get in the neighborhood of 50 stolen bases. He’ll typically go as high as third in drafts, and while there’s a bit of uncertainty given we’ve never seen a full season out of him, there’s no denying the potential upside. After all, he posted 75 runs, 11 home runs, and 46 stolen bases with a .284 average over just 98 games last year.
Following him we have Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, and while Correa is generally going first of the two, you can’t go wrong with either one. Correa’s stolen bases evaporated in 2017, but he’s shown incremental improvements as a hitter every season, and at just age 23 we could easily see 30 dingers and a .300 average this year.
Like many other hitters these days, Lindor did the hip sell out for fly balls routine, and as a result he thwacked 33 long balls, more than doubling his previous two seasons combined. He took a step back in batting average for his troubles, but a low .275 BABIP and still excellent 12.9% strikeout rate suggests he could get that back up even if he sticks with the new swing. If that’s the case, he’ll be a true five-category star.
Young Guns
By this time next year, we could find Alex Bregman hanging out with the big boys in the top tier. In his first full season, Bregman did not disappoint, compiling 19 round-trippers and 17 swiped bags with a .284 average. With an excellent 15.5% strikeout rate, and a hard-hit rate that improved as the year went, we could have another Lindor on our hands by the end of 2018.
Coming of a fine rookie season, expectations were high for Corey Seager going into 2017, and although it wasn’t a downright poor campaign, it failed to live up to the hype. Much of this could be blamed on an elbow injury that nagged him for the latter half of the year. And yet he still managed an impressive 44.0% hard-hit rate, good for fourth in the league among qualified hitters. The “down” year, injury, and lack of speed has driven down his stock a bit, but make no mistake — this is still an elite talent.
“Old” Reliables
Not a one of them has hit 30 years old yet, but it feels like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, and Xander Bogaerts have been around forever — and Bogaerts is still just 25!
Andrus saw a surprising power spike in 2017, belting 20 home runs after having a previous career-high of just eight. Even with the rise in homers across the league, it’s easy to be skeptical of Andrus the home run hitter, but we’ll still be pleased with a 10-25-.280 campaign. Of course, that’s pretty much exactly the same line we can project for Segura, and yet Andrus is going on average over 10 picks ahead of him. Don’t feel the need to reach for Andrus if Segura is still on the board.
Compared to the other two, Bogaerts is a bit more difficult to figure out. His 2017 season proved to be a disappointment, with both his home runs (10) and average (.273) dropping off from his 2016 marks. Given his name recognition, it looks like a buy-low opportunity, but what exactly will we be purchasing? We can presume double-digits in stolen bases, but the power has been all over the place, and the once mighty batting average has dipped three straight years. Still, with a modest bounce back to previous levels, we can hope for a five-category contributor at a draft day cost far lower than last year.
Ready to Take the Next Step?
Rounding out our top 10 are another pair of talented young hitters in Trevor Story and Javier Baez. Story failed to live up to the high expectations thrust upon him from his impressive rookie season, but he still managed to hit 24 out of the park in 2017. The punchouts aren’t going anywhere, so Story won’t help the ol’ batting average, but he maintained a 40% hard-hit rate and 47% fly-ball rate for the second straight year. The power is here to stay, and with Coors Field as a backdrop, don’t be surprised if he cracks the 30-homer mark in 2018.
Baez continues to be an intriguing fantasy piece with the potential to be a strong power/speed combo, but question marks remain. He was still averse to walks last season (5.9%), something manager Joe Maddon has said he wants Baez to improve if he wants consistent playing time. Baez is also unlikely to bat high in the order on a deep Cubs team, which would cap his ceiling. All that could change if he can improve his plate discipline, but even if he doesn’t, a repeat of last season isn’t a bad floor.
Consolation Prizes
If you miss out on the top of the shortstop food chain, worry not, these guys should be able to hold their own. Didi Gregorius, Marwin Gonzalez, and Paul DeJong are all coming off surprise breakout seasons, so it’s no shock that they have the highest ADPs of the group. However, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see all three take a step back in 2018, particularly in terms of power. Even with regression, they should be solid performers, but don’t reach for last year’s stats either.
Orlando Arcia and Tim Anderson could both find themselves batting near the bottom of the order, limiting their runs and RBIs. But you can probably bank on 15-15 seasons out of them, giving them reasonable floors at this price point.
The best value of the group could very well be Marcus Semien, who has an ADP often going outside the top-250. Semien hit 27 dingers in 2016, and he’s stolen at least 10 bags in three straight years. Like many guys, he won’t hit for average, but he’s a good bet for another 20-10-.250 campaign. He’s going way too low in most drafts, so don’t be afraid to move him up the board.
Consolation Prizes II
Not a whole lot separates this tier from the prior one, but the floors do get shakier from here. Jose Peraza and Amed Rosario have modest expectations as hitters in 2018, and much of their value will come down to how many bases they steal. Tim Beckham, Andrelton Simmons, and Zack Cozart made unlikely strides in 2017, and their values hinge on whether their improvements stick. Addison Russell hasn’t made the advancements that many hoped for, but the former top prospect is still just 24, so he’s worth taking a flyer on in case he takes a step forward.
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance
- Chris Owings
- Ketel Marte
- Yangervis Solarte
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Jose Reyes
- Brandon Crawford
- Freddy Galvis
- Franklin Barreto
- Dansby Swanson
- Gleyber Torres
Our final tier consists of warm bodies to fill out your roster in deep formats, and prospects who could have an impact later in the year. Chris Owings and Ketel Marte could provide some cheap speed if they get the opportunities.
First Baseman Rankings Tiers
Second Baseman Rankings Tiers
Third Baseman Ranking Tiers
Catcher Rankings Tiers
Outfielder Rankings Tiers
Starting Pitcher Rankings Tiers
Relief Pitcher Rankings Tiers
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
