What does the term “sleeper” even mean anymore? If you’re like me, you remember going down to your local Walgreens to rummage through the magazine section for those on fantasy football. After that, it was straight to my Mead notebooks that contained my deepest, darkest rankings that nobody was allowed to see (even my wife, who also plays). It was all about finding that sleeper in the late rounds that could win you a championship.
Nowadays, all your leaguemates have to do is click on Google, type in ‘sleepers’ and they’ll have hundreds of thousands of words on who the sleepers are in the current year. But the term sleeper has lost its meaning, so we felt the need to step it up. Instead of looking at players outside the top-100 in drafts, we pushed the requirements outside the top 160 players drafted for this article (just two players are in the top-190). That means you can get these players with your last pick in 10-team leagues, and the final three rounds in 12-team leagues. But truth be told, the later we could find them, the better. The composite ADP used in this was based on half-PPR leagues as of 7/9/18 (you can find all ADP data here).
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I’d also like to forewarn you that there aren’t really “sleeper” running backs at this point in time. There are injuries, and then there are players who can step-in and be potential league-winners. Because of that, I want to mention these running backs: T.J. Yeldon (JAX), Justin Jackson (LAC), John Kelly (LAR). I’d feel extremely confident in those guys becoming weekly top-24 players at their position should the starter go down. Now let’s get started with the top-10 sleepers for 2018.
What does the term “sleeper” even mean anymore? If you’re like me, you remember going down to your local Walgreens to rummage through the magazine section for those on fantasy football. After that, it was straight to my Mead notebooks that contained my deepest, darkest rankings that nobody was allowed to see (even my wife, who also plays). It was all about finding that sleeper in the late rounds that could win you a championship.
Nowadays, all your leaguemates have to do is click on Google, type in ‘sleepers’ and they’ll have hundreds of thousands of words on who the sleepers are in the current year. But the term sleeper has lost its meaning, so we felt the need to step it up. Instead of looking at players outside the top-100 in drafts, we pushed the requirements outside the top 160 players drafted for this article (just two players are in the top-190). That means you can get these players with your last pick in 10-team leagues, and the final three rounds in 12-team leagues. But truth be told, the later we could find them, the better. The composite ADP used in this was based on half-PPR leagues as of 7/9/18 (you can find all ADP data here).
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I’d also like to forewarn you that there aren’t really “sleeper” running backs at this point in time. There are injuries, and then there are players who can step-in and be potential league-winners. Because of that, I want to mention these running backs: T.J. Yeldon (JAX), Justin Jackson (LAC), John Kelly (LAR). I’d feel extremely confident in those guys becoming weekly top-24 players at their position should the starter go down. Now let’s get started with the top-10 sleepers for 2018.
10. Anthony Miller (WR – CHI) Current ADP: 197
Everyone and their grandmother knew that the Bears were going to address the wide receiver position in free agency or the draft. Once they landed Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton, most figured they were done. That was until they traded next year’s second-round pick and this year’s fourth-round pick to snag Miller with the 51st overall pick in the NFL Draft. Miller is going to start immediately and play out of the slot, which is where Mitch Trubisky and Kendall Wright started to connect late last year. Miller has been compared to Wright, as well as Seahawks Pro Bowl wide receiver Doug Baldwin. With Robinson recovering from his torn ACL, Miller will have had more time to learn the new offense as well as develop chemistry with his new quarterback.
9. Ryan Grant (WR – IND) Current ADP: 338
It strikes me as odd that nobody has paid attention to Grant this offseason, as he’s walking into the Donte Moncrief role, you know, the one that had him drafted as a top-30 wide receiver on multiple occasions. Grant has come from the bottom and worked his way into the starting lineup before and now just bet on himself with a one-year contract. With Frank Reich coming over as the new head coach, you’d also expect an uptick in efficiency, especially if Andrew Luck is anywhere close to where he was pre-injury. When looking for a sleeper wide receiver in the late rounds, find one who is preferably attached to a top-notch quarterback. It doesn’t hurt that Grant averaged 1.94 PPR points per target last year, which ranked ninth among the 83 wide receivers with more than 50 targets.
8. Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) Current ADP: 210
He’s one who may take a few weeks to kick in, but when he does, the results could be huge. The exit of both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten has left a massive void of a possession receiver on the Cowboys roster, and no, Allen Hurns isn’t going to be that guy. Gallup is the only one on the roster who just might possess No. 1 wide receiver traits, while the others are simply depth chart guys. Prior to the NFL Draft, my Scouting Profile (read it here) compared him to Jeremy Maclin. The Cowboys defense is in rebuild mode, so there’ll be some shootouts the Cowboys are involved in and Dak Prescott isn’t nearly as bad as some are making him out to be after a horrific finish to 2017. It shouldn’t shock you if Gallup is a fantasy starter once he gets into the starting lineup.
7. Mike Williams (WR – LAC) Current ADP: 161
He’s the highest-drafted player on this list, which was somewhat surprising to me considering the way his rookie season went. But maybe the average drafter is getting smarter, because once Hunter Henry went down with a season-ending knee injury, Williams started moving up draft boards, and rightfully so. There are still some who are wondering which tight end will fill that role, but my answer would be “nobody.” Instead, Williams will get a bigger target share, while the tight end position will not be as prevalent. Some are concerned about Tyrell Williams, but I’d argue that the Chargers wouldn’t have drafted Mike Williams at No. 7 if they were content with him. Williams is 6-foot-4 and will likely become a redzone favorite for Philip Rivers, making him worthy of a late-round pick.
6. Albert Wilson (WR – MIA) Current ADP: 249
Once Wilson signed with the Dolphins early-on in free agency, I wanted to declare him an excellent late-round pick right away. A short while after that, they signed Danny Amendola, seemingly putting some fire on the hype Wilson should be receiving. However, upon further review, you should still snag Wilson with a late-round pick. The Dolphins will not have Amendola and Wilson on the field at the same time, as they both play on the inside, and the Dolphins ran exactly 33 total snaps last year with four wide receivers on the field. While Wilson can play outside as well, but neither Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker are going to the bench. Wilson is the one who gives them more versatility to slide Stills/Parker around the formation, meaning he’ll be on the field over 70 percent of the time. If Ryan Tannehill stays with what he’s done throughout his career, you can expect plenty of targets over the middle of the field for Wilson. He’s someone who would be a high-floor sleeper, rather than a high-upside one due to the limitations of the Dolphins offense.
5. James Washington (WR – PIT) Current ADP: 282
Don’t let the fact that he’s a rookie stop you from drafting him, as there’ve been two Steelers rookie wide receivers make serious fantasy football impacts in year one. Martavis Bryant finished with 549 yards and eight touchdowns in just 10 games his rookie year, and last year we watched JuJu Smith-Schuster hit 917 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 games. Washington was the best deep-ball tracker in the draft and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot, as he’ll see one-on-one coverage and has a quarterback who can get the ball downfield to him. Beat writers have already started to chime-in saying he might just be better than Bryant was in the role they need him to play.
4. Jordan Wilkins (RB – IND) Current ADP: Undrafted
Now that we know Robert Turbin will be suspended for the first four games, the picture of the Colts backfield just got a bit clearer, though there’s still a lot to be determined. Wilkins has the size/versatility of someone like Matt Forte, though I won’t say he’s on Forte’s level. But there are reasons to like him as a late-round pick. He can stay on the field all three downs, he’s been getting first-team reps while Marlon Mack has been out due to offseason shoulder surgery, and Nyheim Hines is more of a scat-back who’ll be used in a Darren Sproles-type role. It’s rare to find a running back who is going undrafted who has a shot to lead a backfield in touches. One thing is for sure – he’s worth drafting with your final pick and you should know what you have after the first week or two.
3. Vance McDonald (TE – PIT) Current ADP: 195
I’ve been all over the Trey Burton hype-train this offseason, but he’s going earlier than our sleeper list allows. If there’s someone else in your league who snags Burton, take a look at McDonald. After being traded to the Steelers one week before the regular season began, McDonald had no chance to learn the offense or develop any sort of chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger. After seeing just 11 targets over the first 13 weeks, McDonald saw 11 targets in the next two games, totaling 52 yards in both contests. After a full offseason, they’ve said he’ll be much more involved this year and let’s not pretend that defenses will be concerned about him with all the other talent on the field. Between Jesse James and McDonald last year, they accounted for 87 targets, which is more than enough to finish as a top-12 tight end.
2. Mitch Trubisky (QB – CHI) Current ADP: 170
If you’re one of those drafters who wants to try out the whole late-round quarterback approach, here’s your target. After throwing to a starting trio of Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, and Dion Sims with John Fox at the helm last year, Trubisky will now be throwing to Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton with Matt Nagy calling plays. Quite the difference, eh? It’s very reminiscent to the Rams, who went from Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, and Brian Quick with Jeff Fisher, to Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp under Sean McVay last year. We all witnessed Jared Goff go from someone who couldn’t put together much of anything, to someone you trusted as a QB1. But the best part is that Trubisky’s ceiling is even higher, as he rushed for at least 44 yards in three of his last nine games in 2017, which is essentially another passing touchdown. Most don’t realize he was the QB13 over the final four games of 2017, and that was with his “supporting cast.” He’s going to be an excellent streamer, at worst.
1. Geronimo Allison (WR – GB) Current ADP: 201
I’ve said it a bunch this offseason, but Allison is fantasy football’s best kept secret (if there is such a thing). As of now, he’s a starting wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers, yet he’s going undrafted in 12-team, 16-round leagues. WHAT. Some will say that the Packers drafted three wide receivers, but did you know they drafted two wide receivers in the same range last year? Can you tell me where DeAngelo Yancey and Malachi Dupre are now? I can, but that’s besides the point. Allison has played in 15 games with Rodgers, and in those games he’s totaled 45 targets, 26 receptions, 381 yards, and two touchdowns, including an 8/122/0 game in Week 3 last year. He knows the offense, has chemistry with Rodgers, and is heading into his third NFL season. This is all too reminiscent of Devin Funchess last year, though I’m even more excited about Allison because he’s playing with the best quarterback of all-time. You didn’t forget that James Jones scored 14 touchdowns with Rodgers just a few years back, did you? Yeah, he retired just a few years later.
Just missed the cut, but should be on your waiver wire watch list: Hayden Hurst (BAL), Elijah McGuire (NYJ), Joe Williams (SF), Nick Vannett (SEA)
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
