Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 4

Enough games have passed to get a general idea of each team’s tendencies and usage pattern. Yet is three games sufficient to anoint a flavor of the month or shun a fallen a star?

This question caused some interesting challenges when forming Week 4’s rankings. A couple of my undervalued players have struggled out of the gate, but strong matchups present a path to redemption. The other two require some faith to keep churning out big plays in their sophomore campaigns. In a couple of overvalued cases, the other experts have let a positive Week 1 shield them from two discouraging lines. And perhaps I’m not giving the proper weight to big Week 3 showings in the other scenarios.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Eli Manning (NYG vs. NO) – ECR: QB18; My Rank: QB14
This is all about the matchup. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, and Matt Ryan recorded 1,010 passing yards for 10 touchdowns, one pick, and a 141.7 quarterback rating — Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with a 137.4 rating — against the Saints. Taylor settled for a QB24 outcome, but Fitzpatrick and Ryan were QB1 and 2 in Weeks 1 and 3, respectively. Eli Manning, meanwhile, boasts the league’s third-highest completion percentage (74.6) behind Drew Brees and Derek Carr. Finally given enough time in the pocket, he went 25-of-29 for 297 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. He lost Evan Engram (MCL), but still has Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., and Sterling Shepard. The last of the trio will benefit from New Orleans losing Patrick Robinson to a broken ankle, so Manning stands out as Week 4’s top QB streamer after Andy Dalton.

Overvalued: Andrew Luck (IND vs. HOU) – ECR: QB16; My Rank: QB20
I didn’t want to pick on Deshaun Watson for the third time in four weeks. Instead, I’ll stay in QB2 territory with Andrew Luck, who is still benefiting from his prior reputation when healthy. Three weeks into the season, only Sam Bradford has accrued fewer yards per pass attempt than Luck’s 5.34. He has generated 343 yards in the past two games combined, amounting to QB29 and 20 finishes. The Texans, who have allowed a 73.3 completion percentage and 119.9 passer rating following a rough day against Manning, are far from a terrible matchup. Yet peers such as Manning, Case Keenum (vs. Kansas City), Baker Mayfield (at Oakland), and Joe Flacco (at Pittsburgh) also face favorable opponents, none of whom roster J.J. Watt. Houston’s pass-rush underwhelmed against a suspect Giants offensive line, but it could bounce back against another patchwork protection unit. Even the ECR would suggest Luck’s investors find a replacement.

Running Back

Undervalued: Jamaal Williams (GB vs. BUF) – ECR: RB34; My Rank: RB26
Latavius Murray occupied this space last week, and he registered one rushing yard. Pairing Buffalo’s shocking upset with Aaron Jones’ return has scared many rankers away from Jamaal Williams. One unexpected outcome, however, does not guarantee a second. The Packers are also double-digit favorites at home against the Bills, and they shouldn’t repeat Minnesota’s mistake of underestimating the AFC East opponent. Although the Bills jumped out to an early lead in Week 3, they previously coughed up three touchdowns to running backs in consecutive contests. This remains a strong matchup despite Murray’s shortcomings. The real problem is identifying which Green Bay rusher benefits. Jones possesses more upside, but he played just 17 snaps in his 2018 debut. Williams, whose blocking is more valuable than ever given Aaron Rodgers’ health, saw the field for 30 plays despite the highly unfavorable game script. My RB31, Jones is a flex option who could win Week 4 matchups and run away with the job. The safer bet, however, is Williams getting more carries and red-zone opportunities.

Overvalued: Jordan Howard (CHI vs. TB) – ECR: RB6; My Rank: RB11
You’re still starting Jordan Howard. Ranking him as a low-end RB1 seems more than fair for someone averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Before dragging him down, let’s first try to understand why he’s slotted so high. He found the end zone in Week 3’s 26-touch outing, and the Bears are home favorites. Maybe everyone is fully on board with Howard’s pass-catching gains, because that’s the way to expose Tampa Bay’s defense. Maybe they just don’t like the position’s other top-10 candidates. The Buccaneers are tied for last in passing defense, but they’re third against the run. While they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, Alvin Kamara and James Conner were better suited to attack their weaknesses through the air. Howard, on the other hand, has never posted 50 or more receiving yards in a game. He’s going to need to set a new personal best or procure multiple touchdowns to validate his RB6 ECR.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Mike Williams (LAC vs. SF) – ECR: WR36; My Rank: WR30
Over the past two weeks, Mike Williams has faced Tre’Davious White’s Bills and the Rams, who at least entered Week 3 with Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib healthy. He scored three touchdowns while playing 69.6 and 67.3 percent of the Chargers’ snaps. The second-year wide receiver has already matched last season’s reception tally (11) and posted two 81-yard outings. He now gets the 49ers, who have tied the Patriots for the sixth-most fantasy points allowed to wideouts. An unexpected addition to their injury report, Keenan Allen (knee) did not practice on Thursday. His absence would send Williams soaring into the top 20, but he should still play a vital role in the aerial game even if his star teammate plays at less than 100 percent.

Overvalued: Sammy Watkins (KC at DEN) – ECR: WR25; My Rank: WR32
Am I still holding a grudge for past disappointments? Sammy Watkins opened 2018 with another letdown (21 yards) before catching 11 of 15 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers and 49ers. The Broncos are 22nd in passing defense with 8.2 yards allowed per pass attempt, so I’m not expecting them to shut down Mahomes (my QB1) and the Chiefs. Another big game will force me to alter my perception of the volatile receiver. Yet it’s also possible he sees plenty of Chris Harris, causing Mahomes to pick apart Denver up the middle with Travis Kelce. For now, Watkins remains a risky WR3 with upside in an explosive offense.

Tight End

Undervalued: O.J. Howard (TB at CHI) – ECR: TE9; My Rank: TE7
O.J. Howard is this season’s TE2 behind Kelce. He’s tied for third on his own team with 14 targets. While his floor questions his status as a weekly starter, brandishing big-play upside on the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense is good enough in the position’s current climate. Given the benefits of a steady snap rate, he has yet to suffer that downside. He has topped 50 yards in all three games and six of his last eight contests dating back to last season. Although hardly a pushover, the Bears have watched Will Dissly and Ricky Seals-Jones waltz into the end zone in consecutive games.

Overvalued: Jared Cook (OAK vs. CLE) – ECR: TE6; My Rank: TE10
To little surprise, Jared Cook fell back to earth. Following Week 1’s 180-yard outburst, the 31-year-old left the next two games with 80 combined yards. That sounds more like Cook, who has scored two touchdowns in his last 25 games. Formerly an ideal opponent for tight ends, the Browns have shielded the position from the end zone and permitted just 97 yards. Anyone starting Cook should only do so because there’s no other choice. Plenty of players who drafted Engram, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, or Jordan Reed (bye) face this futile situation. That’s not the case if Howard, Trey Burton, or even David Njoku is on the table. Cook may also drop to TE11 for Eric Ebron or Jack Doyle depending on the latter’s health status.