Numbers matter in fantasy football. There’s no denying that. Passing yards are measured in numbers. Receiving TDs are measured in numbers. Rushing yards, receptions, interceptions, rushing TDs – that’s right, all numbers. The most critical fantasy number is points scored. Score more than your opponent, and you win. Score even a fraction of a point less, and you lose.
Numbers don’t just matter in fantasy football. They are everything. Fantasy owners can read the box score of every game every week, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story. Numbers without context are meaningless. Some numbers matter more than others, some are good predictors of future behavior, some are fluky and hard to consistently forecast, and others merely reinforce what our eyes already tell us about a particular player.
Week 6 brought us an amazing shootout between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, a thriller in Green Bay on Monday night, and Nathan Peterman doing more “Nathan Peterman things.” As always, we’re going to look at some of the week’s notable stats and figures and what they mean for fantasy football. Here’s our latest installment of “By the Numbers.”
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6 – Consecutive 100-yard receiving games for Adam Thielen
Thielen leads the league in receiving after posting his sixth straight 100-yard outing on Sunday.
Why should I care?
That makes the second-longest streak to start a season in NFL history and the third-longest streak of its kind through any point of a season. Thielen is absolutely on fire in 2018, accounting for a league-high 712 receiving yards and four receiving TDs. He leads the league in receptions and targets with 58 and 81, respectively. His full-season pace is 154 receptions on 216 targets for nearly 1,900 receiving yards. His current pace is unsustainable, but his final totals certainly won’t come down from that dramatically with the Vikings defense giving up far more points than last season and Kirk Cousins chucking the ball at will. Interestingly enough, Thielen ranks second in the NFL in dropped passes (four), but that hasn’t hampered his production one bit.
Through six games, Thielen is the overall WR1 in total fantasy points and fantasy points per game in standard and PPR scoring. He has arguably the highest floor of any receiver in the game this season, and I like him rest of season more than guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyreek Hill. Keep firing him up, and enjoy the magical run.
6 – QBs on pace for 5,000 passing yards
There are currently six different QBs on pace to throw for at least 5,000 yards this season.
Why should I care?
Only five players have ever thrown for 5,000 in a single season, and the only time more than one did it in the same season was 2011 when Drew Brees, Brady, and Matthew Stafford all accomplished the feat. This season, six players are on pace for that number (including Brees), and Mahomes is on pace for 4,973. Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, and Cousins could all eclipse 5,000 yards for the first time in their careers. Brees could hit that number for the sixth time in his career. These numbers just go to show the pass-happy (and very entertaining) nature of the league. All of these signal-callers are elite options for the rest of the season.
11 – Consecutive regular season games for Julio Jones without a receiving TD
Jones is second in receiving yards this season, but he hasn’t scored a TD in his last 11 games.
Why should I care?
Jones has been an absolute stud and fantasy must-play for his entire NFL career, averaging 1,579 receiving yards per season over the last four years. He finished 2017 with 1,444 receiving yards, and he is currently on pace for what would be a career-high 1,885 receiving yards. His lack of TDs in 2017 (three) was annoying, but positive regression was sure to come in 2018, right? Not quite. Jones hasn’t found the end zone this season, and he hasn’t scored since Week 12 of last year, a streak of 11 straight regular season games. In fact, he’s only scored five times in his last 32 regular season games dating back to 2016.
While fantasy owners would love a TD now and then, he has proven that he doesn’t need to hit the end zone to finish as a WR1 in fantasy football. He’s one of the best in the league, and he will eventually start scoring. If you can get him on the cheap because of his lack of TDs, that’s a no-brainer. If you own him, stay the course and enjoy the safe floor with the monstrous ceiling. He’s a top-three play at WR every week as the number one option on a pass-heavy team with a terrible defense.
29 – Total TD pace for Todd Gurley
Gurley leads the league with nine rushing TDs and 11 total TDs through six games this season.
Why should I care?
Gurley led the league last year with 19 total TDs, and he’s on pace to shatter his career high in that department this year. Gurley is currently on pace to score 29 total TDs this season. That would rank second all-time in a single season behind LaDainian Tomlinson‘s mark of 31 set in 2006. The fourth-year back out of Georgia shows no signs of slowing down, working as the focal point of the NFL’s most high-powered offense. He’s the best RB in football right now, and it’s not close. As if the TDs weren’t enough, Gurley is the NFL’s leading rusher too. He’s phenomenal and should finish as the overall RB1 for the second season in a row with only Saquon Barkley nipping at his heels.
6.8 – Matt Breida’s league-leading YPC
Breida leads the NFL in yards per carry (YPC) this season with 6.8.
Why should I care?
He’s been nothing short of fantastic, playing behind a below-average offensive line and working with C.J. Beathard for much of this season. Breida has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, getting the starting RB gig when Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL in the preseason. Breida is tied for seventh in rushing yards this season with 430, and he’s become an every-week RB2 based on volume and efficiency. Raheem Mostert split time with Breida in Week 6, and the former led the team in rushing yards. I’m not concerned with that performance, as Breida sprained his ankle in Week 5 and was given a smaller Week 6 workload, though he did still lead the team in carries. The 49ers host a tough Rams defense in Week 7, but San Francisco has a favorable schedule for RBs after that. Breida remains a great weekly option.
6 – Eric Ebron’s receiving TDs
After scoring five receiving TDs over the last two seasons combined, Ebron is tied for the league lead with six this season.
Why should I care?
Shockingly, he’s the TE2 in PPR and the TE1 in standard through six games this year. Ebron has been a favorite of Andrew Luck, especially in the red zone. Ebron was selected in the first round of the 2014 Draft by the Lions and has largely been a disappointment throughout his career, scoring only 11 TDs in four seasons with Detroit and averaging 47 receptions and 518 receiving yards per season. He’s on pace to have the best season of his career receiving, but his production should slow down when T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle eventually make their way back into the Colts’ lineup. For now, continue to use him as a weekly TE1.
54 – Home/road split in QB rating for Jared Goff
Goff’s QB rating at home is 54.0 points better than his QB rating on the road.
Why should I care?
Goff has taken the league by storm this season, leading the “Greatest Show on Surf” to a 6-0 record and piling up points on offense. Goff has thrown 1,928 yards, 12 TDs, and five INTs and is the overall QB9 at this point in the season. Surprisingly, his home/away split in QB rating is a whopping 54.0 points. Goff leads the league in home passer rating with a tremendous 136.5 mark. That number dips way down to 82.5 on the road.
Goff’s fantasy PPG at home compared to the road is much different as well. In home games, the Rams’ QB boasts a healthy 27.0 fantasy PPG, but on the road, Goff averages a measly 13.0 fantasy PPG. It’s a small sample size, with three games at home and three on the road this season, but it’s one to keep an eye on. I’d expect Goff to rebound this week after a scoreless visit to Mile High in Week 6. You’re certainly not benching him for road games, but if he struggles at San Francisco in Week 7 against a weak secondary, you might want to consider other options when the Rams aren’t in Los Angeles.
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Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster
