I’m really not that big of an awards guy.
I think it’s silly that the MVP award goes to a quarterback every year. I still don’t know what the difference between MVP and Offensive Player of the Year is. I don’t like that Defensive Rookie of the Year just goes to whichever front seven player gets the most sacks.
So, today I’m unveiling what’s more of second-half superlatives, rather than awards. This isn’t meant to recap what’s happened so far. Instead, it will help fantasy owners make decisions as the rest of the season goes on and we inch closer to the fantasy playoffs.
Here are six awards predictions I have for the second half of the year. Congratulations to the winners (?).
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Player most likely to disappoint based on average draft position: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG)
I’m not including players who are injured or holding out for this award (sorry Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook).
Instead, I’m going with Beckham, whose stock is trending down the more the season goes on. Owners have to love the number of targets he’s gotten so far this season (he’s third in the league in targets), but I don’t see him finishing as a top-3 fantasy receiver, let alone a top 10.
Beckham was drafted as the No. 3 receiver, according to our preseason ADP rankings, and I’d much rather have guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks, who were drafted behind him. The main reason? Eli Manning.
Manning has the fifth lowest attempted air yards per pass (6.9) among all qualified quarterbacks, and the third lowest if you remove C.J. Beathard and Sam Bradford (who have only started a handful of games combined), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Giants’ offense essentially consists of throwing the ball to Beckham and Saquon Barkley at the line of scrimmage and hoping they can break something. And while Beckham will do that from time to time, it won’t be consistent enough that he’ll live up to his preseason value.
Also, it could get uglier if the Giants decide to see what they have in the recently arrested Kyle Lauletta and take him for a test drive.
Player most likely to overachieve based on ADP: Golden Tate (WR – PHI)
Tate was the No. 21 receiver based on ADP, and I consider him a top 15 pass catcher rest-of-season in point-per-reception leagues now that he’s in Philadelphia.
This guy is an absolute catch machine, and he should excel with the Eagles now that he doesn’t have to compete against Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay for looks. Since coming back from a torn ACL, Carson Wentz has been on fire, throwing multiple touchdowns in five straight games and completing more than 70 percent of his passes.
Nelson Agholor leads all Eagles wide receivers with 61 targets, while Zach Ertz leads the team with 23 more than him. There’s certainly a gap to fill here because the Eagles’ offense can’t just be relying on Ertz constantly. I expect Tate to see eight or so targets a game and be the No. 1 receiver in this offense.
Most reliable player: Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
This award goes to the player who you can blindly put in your lineup week after week and not have to think twice about it.
While Todd Gurley makes a strong case, I am less worried about Mahomes’ schedule down the stretch and into the fantasy playoffs. While the Rams could have the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC locked up early on, Mahomes could be in a race for home field advantage throughout the postseason with New England. It’s unlikely that Mahomes sits at any point for the remainder of this season (barring injury), and owners can feel good about him every week without a sweat.
He’s leading all quarterbacks with an average of 27.1 fantasy points per game and is on pace to throw more than 50 touchdowns. These aren’t all volume stats, either. He’s attempted just the 10th most passes out of anyone in the league, behind guys like Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles, who have vastly underperformed him in fantasy.
Mahomes and the Chiefs do have a tough stretch of matchups in the coming weeks, but he does close out the season with the Raiders in Weeks 13 and 17 (10th most fantasy points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks) and the Chargers in Week 15 (eighth-most fantasy points allowed).
Most controversial player: Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Basically, which player will cause the most arguments.
Will he be worth a first-round pick in 2019? Did he go too high in drafts this year? How much should we be worried about Mark Ingram?
I could see fantasy experts and owners coming to blows over Kamara’s value by the end of the year, mainly because of the way the Saints’ offense is trending and Ingram’s presence.
Since Ingram returned in Week 5, Kamara hasn’t eclipsed more than 64 rushing yards in a game and has averaged four catches per game versus 8.75 per game before Ingram’s return.
Through four weeks, Kamara was the No. 1 running back in fantasy (in both PPR and standard leagues). But through the past four weeks, he’s averaging just the 15th most points per game among running backs in PPR leagues and the 22nd most in standard leagues.
If things don’t turn around, a lot of people are going to sour on him.
Rookie of the Year: Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)
I know I just complained about counting stats in the introduction, so I’m trying to factor in a number of things here. Lindsay was an undrafted free agent coming into the year and was hardly drafted in fantasy leagues, while fellow rookie Royce Freeman went in the fourth and fifth rounds of most drafts.
But Lindsay has dominated Denver’s backfield this year, and now has the sixth most rushing yards in the league on only the 17th most carries. It seems every week either Freeman or Devontae Booker is trying to eat into Lindsay’s touches, but he keeps cementing his role in the backfield.
He’s also only scored three rushing touchdowns so far, a rate that I could see ticking up as the year goes on and he continues to distance himself from the rest of the backfield.
I’m trying to live by the letter of the law here: Which player has been the most valuable to their fantasy team? Who’s winning owners the most leagues?
While Mahomes makes a solid argument considering where he was drafted, I can’t see going with anyone but Gurley (for what it’s worth, I think he should win real-life MVP, too).
Gurley is averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game in standard leagues — four points more than the second highest-scoring back, Melvin Gordon. Meanwhile, Mahomes is averaging 2.8 points per game more than the No. 2 fantasy quarterback (Matt Ryan) and the No. 1 and No. 7 fantasy receivers are separated by only three points per game.
In short, Gurley is the most valuable player at his position and is clearly separating himself from the pack and is seeing the most work. There’s no reason to think his production won’t keep up in the second half of the year.
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Jon Munshaw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @jon_munshaw.
