All season long in this space, I will rank the top-10 quarterbacks for each given week based on a variety of factors. The primary consideration will always be the true talent and ability of the signal-caller. Other circumstances such as the scheduled matchup, surrounding talent, offensive line play, and advanced metrics are then weighed in to produce a weekly ranking.
Before we proceed, let’s review how last week went among the ten quarterbacks I ranked as the most likely to finish as the top overall fantasy producer at the position:
HITS: Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees
MISSES: Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton
All in all, nailing six out of ten isn’t a bad way to start the season. On to the Week 2 QB1 Primer…
10. Josh Allen (BUF) @ New York Giants
Last week, I was aggressive in my Matthew Stafford ranking, and he paid off handsomely in a good match-up. The same logic holds true here, where despite his poor mechanics, Josh Allen should have little trouble moving the ball through the air against an anemic New York defense. It’s only one game, but against Dallas last week, the Giants’ pass defense ranked 31st among all units according to Football Outsiders metrics. According to their DVOA, the Giants were even worse than Miami in terms of overall defense. New York will struggle mightily to contain field-stretching wideout, John Brown, while Allen should have little trouble finding his underneath targets open frequently coming out of breaks. As inaccurate as Allen often is, he actually finished top-10 in adjusted completion percentage in Week 1, according to PFF. With an emerging threat in Devin Singletary as a weapon in the backfield, Allen could have one of the biggest weeks of his season as a passer, especially if his receivers do not drop four balls like they did last week. There’s always some risk with Allen, but the rushing stats should be gravy on top of what could be one of Allen’s strongest performances.
9. Jared Goff (LAR) vs. New Orleans Saints
Goff didn’t look particularly sharp in Week 1. According to PFF, Goff surprisingly ranked dead last among quarterbacks in terms of efficiency with time in the pocket. Efficiency was Goff’s bread and butter last season, and with all his receivers healthy again and a home date with the Saints in Week 2, Goff should settle down nicely. New Orleans should stress the Los Angeles defense more than Carolina did, at least enough that Goff will have to stay aggressive rather than hand the ball off to Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown to salt the clock. The Saints defense can get after the quarterback (six sacks, 11 QB hits in Week 1 against the Texans), but the Rams field a far better offensive line than Houston does. Don’t expect a monster game, but more efficiency alone should give Goff a solid floor with room for much more.
8. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Seattle Seahawks
There’s no sugar-coating it. Big Ben looked apathetic, and the Steelers’ offense as a whole came out flat against New England to open the season. However, the Patriots used bracket coverage to contain Vance McDonald and got physical at the line of scrimmage with JuJu Smith-Schuster to disrupt timing while clogging up running lanes for James Conner. With Jadeveon Clowney leading the way, Seattle figures to make Pittsburgh’s stellar offensive line work for every yard. The Steelers will look to exploit their advantage through the air. The Seahawks allowed Bengals tight ends to combine for nine catches and 93 yards in Weeks 1, a stark contrast to New England’s stifling secondary. Reclamation project John Ross torched this Seattle defense last week, and Pittsburgh should be able to right the ship in Week 2. It’s no secret that Roethlisberger tends to play better at home than on the road (5.7 more fantasy points per game at Heinz Field than on the road the last three years). Expect Roethlisberger to finish inside the top 10 at the position this week.
7. Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles secondary is going to be a liability all season. They finished 29th in defensive DVOA and pass defense in Week 1 against Case Keenum and a cast of misfits in Washington, allowing 380 yards and three scores through the air. Eagles DC Jim Schwartz doesn’t typically dial-up a blitz-heavy attack, but per Tim McManus, Schwartz has blitzed Ryan on 26.8% of his dropbacks, per ESPNStatsInfo, compared to 19.2% of dropbacks against all other teams. It won’t matter. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper should feast on this secondary in a game with shootout potential. With Devonta Freeman struggling to recapture his form and a mediocre offensive line not generating much push in the running game, the Falcons offense will go through Matt Ryan for the foreseeable future.
6. Carson Wentz (PHI) vs. Atlanta Falcons
For the same reason that the Eagles secondary should be an inviting matchup for Matt Ryan, the residual effect is that Carson Wentz will likely have to throw more to keep Philadelphia in games. DeSean Jackson is the missing field-stretcher this offense has lacked for a while, and Wentz took full advantage in Week 1, targeting the speedy veteran ten times while connecting eight times for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta has a talented defense; they allowed only 97 yards passing in Week 1, the fewest in the NFL. However, much of that had to do with Minnesota’s success running the ball against them. Philadelphia will likely try the same approach, but the woes in their secondary may lead to them playing from behind more often than not. The attempts will be there for Wentz to rack up stats in this one.
5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. Washington Redskins
New OC Kellen Moore’s impact on this offense cannot be overstated. More pre-snap movement and play-action have opened up the offense, and with it, Dak Prescott’s production. With more usage of 11 personnel, Dak will constantly have three receivers threatening the defense. Ezekiel Elliott will prevent teams from playing too much nickel, lest they get gashed on the ground. Washington contained Wentz for most of the game in Week 1, but the wheels eventually fell off, and they allowed 313 yards and three scores through the air in a hurry. Divisional games are usually more hotly contested matchups, regardless of how teams look on paper, but Dak has the weapons and now the scheme to force himself into the top-5 every week.
4. Tom Brady (NE) @ Miami Dolphins
Brady continues to defy Father Time, and this matchup is so good that it borders on detrimental. I say that only because the Patriots might have such a huge lead by halftime that Brady barely attempts another pass in the second half. That being said, New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1, and Brady kept his foot on the gas, tossing three touchdowns and piling up 341 yards through the air on 36 attempts. Few coaches are as ruthless as Bill Belichick, so it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Brady puts up enough yards and scores in one half of football to place him inside the top-5 this week. The possibility that Brady remains aggressive in a one-sided slaughtering as he did in Week 1 makes it impossible to rank him any lower than this.
3. Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
A home date with a division rival should bring out the best in Watson. Under duress all game against New Orleans in Week 1, Watson could have an easier time against a Jacksonville unit that registered zero sacks and only four QB hits against Kansas City last week. Granted, the Jaguars did post 11 pressures, forcing Mahomes to get the ball out quicker, but Watson should be able to do the same with stud receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V, and Kenny Stills all capable of winning at every level. Jacksonville’s vaunted secondary won’t make it easy, but Watson arguably has the best odds of challenging Mahomes for MVP this year.
2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. Arizona Cardinals
This might be the highest Jackson gets ranked all year. Against Miami, Jackson displayed tremendous touch and accuracy on his passes, completing just 17 passes on 20 attempts that went for 324 yards and a staggering five touchdowns. Admittedly, the Dolphins made it easy by selling out to stop the run, but Jackson’s ability to make them pay creates a “pick your poison” scenario. If Arizona does what Miami did and playing man coverage and committing a safety to spy Jackson and keep him from beating them with his legs, he should easily be able to connect with his pass-catchers against an injury-riddled Arizona secondary that Matt Stafford ripped for 385 yards and three touchdowns. Against defenses that can succeed with man coverage, Jackson will be tested far more. Right now, Arizona likely isn’t that defense, so another big week looks inevitable in what will surely be a hyped matchup between Jackson and Kyler Murray in Baltimore’s home debut.
1. Patrick Mahomes (KC) @ Oakland Raiders
No Tyreek Hill? No problem. Despite losing his star receiver early against Jacksonville last week, Mahomes still racked up 378 yards and three scores against one of the league’s better secondaries. He had 313 yards at halftime. What do you think he can do against Oakland’s subpar unit? HC Andy Reid is a master of play-action and creative scheming, and with so many weapons still around Mahomes, it’s hard not to rank the game’s best young signal-caller as the best bet for QB1 overall production this week.
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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.