You think you can exploit a weakness in the defense with the game on the line. It goes against conventional play-calling and what the coaches told you, but you decide it’s time for a change. You call for an audible, one that will define your season, playoff hopes, and a chance at the championship.
The correct audible wins the game, the wrong one destroys your season.
The same practice applies to our fantasy drafts every year. The coach’s play call is consensus ADP. Following the play call is a low risk, safe way to finish around a 0.500 winning percentage. But fantasy prizes aren’t paid out for being average. Our choice to audible our draft picks can be what leads to triumphant victory or crushing defeat.
I spend at least some time of each day, nearly all year long, researching and studying fantasy football. I love football, its community, and this fantasy game we play. It’s rewarding, exhausting, exciting, and challenging all at the same time, and I simply can’t get enough.
I don’t claim to be any better than anyone else in the writing industry and have my fair share of hits and misses each year. Each one of us has our strengths and weaknesses as analysts. What I do know is that throughout the year, I constantly update projections, post new research on twitter, write articles, and dig for any relevant data.
Despite this effort, none of it is encapsulated into one source. This is my attempt at doing so for your advantage on draft night. A recollection of my research throughout the year and how it has shaped my approach to fantasy drafts this season. A compact summary of each player I am actively targeting at or well above ADP.
Or as I like to call it, responsible audibles for draft night.
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Best Draft Selections At Each Position
While there are countless strategies on how to draft such as Zero-WR, Zero-RB, tier selections, best player available, ect., I’ll be focusing on specific players based on current ADP that I believe can help build a winning team. Broken down by positional ADP for PPR, you can track down the list at each position you are evaluating. For later round picks, head over to my All Undrafted Team article. You can also find consensus ADP using FantasyPros’ tools here.
Let’s begin with running backs.
Running Back Audibles
Austin Ekeler (LAC) ADP: RB12
There is not a pick I am aggressively pursuing more than Ekeler around his ADP of RB12. I built a forecasting model in January that had a very respectable accuracy rate in 2019 (R-squared = 0.56) of which Ekeler comes in as the RB2 overall for 2020. In addition, my significant vacated touches research identifies backs who are due for a drastic increase in volume. Gordon leaves behind 204 touches and 9 touchdowns while Ekeler comes off the best season of his career and an improved offensive line. Age, forecast modeling, available opportunity, offensive line improvements, and dual-threat upside, Ekeler has what it takes to repeat a top-5 finish:
"Why Austin Ekeler is a top-5 RB"✍️
Throughout my research, these 4 categories can help us most to determine next year fantasy production for RBs:
1) Production Modeling
2) Significant Vacated Touches
3) Age
4) Offensive Line PerformanceHow does Ekeler fair? 👇
(1/7)
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) June 23, 2020
Leonard Fournette (JAC) ADP: RB15
In 2019, Fournette had an ADP of RB12 and finished as the RB7 (RB9 per game) despite only scoring three touchdowns on 1,674 all-purpose yards. In the top-30 running backs, no one scored at a lower rate. The return towards average scoring rates is one of the surest bets you can make, which would’ve put him around 10 touchdowns for league average. Many also don’t realize how well Fournette did in creating yards as shown through my Yards Created Through Analytics model – 5th best player of 45 – despite one of the poorest ranked blocking lines in the league. The loss of receiving share from the additions of Chris Thompson and Laviska Shenault are a real threat, but the recovery in touchdowns can balance out this drop. He will remain a high volume rusher with some receiving upside, and as always, volume is king.
James Conner (PIT) ADP: RB22
Few understand that Conner averaged 14.6 in PPG as the RB17. In his first seven games pre-injury, that number was even higher at 17.8 as the RB10. The return of Big Ben will undoubtedly increase their sixth-worst scoring rate after finishing fifth best in both 2017 and 2018. The only competition added was fourth-rounder Anthony McFarland. He also happens to be running behind Justin Boone’s sixth-best offensive line in the league. Getting a workhorse back like Conner with this kind of upside at RB22 is simply outstanding, injury concerns or not.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) ADP: RB29
This should be the easiest selection of your draft across all positions. Not only does he score well above ADP in my forecasting model mentioned earlier (projected RB17), but he also out-scored Nick Chubb in 6 out of 8 games they played together. Now the Browns bring in one of the most run-heavy minded coaches in Kevin Stefanski. My team article notes how both the improved offensive line and increased Vegas projected win totals suggest more scoring for the Browns and higher utilization of their running backs. Everything about this team points towards higher use of their backs, and Hunt has similar upside to Chubb at a fraction of the cost.
Darrell Henderson (LAR) ADP: RB44
After sky-high expectations coming into 2019, Henderson let many owners down. Anyone who watched his matchup against the 49ers saw the talent he displayed, and it was electric. Todd Gurley’s departure leaves behind 254 touches and 14 touchdowns for the taking, that’s a tremendous opportunity. The selection of Cam Akers is no doubt concerning, but McVay has reiterated multiple times that this will be a RBBC. Akers’s current ADP suggests he’ll receive the majority role instantly, but when a committee is involved in a potentially high scoring offense led by McVay, this risk/reward of RB44 has value written all over it. While not much stock should be put into team reports so early, he is already reportedly taking first-team reps in camp.
Wide Receiver Audibles
DJ Moore (CAR) ADP: WR10
Moore has all the makings of an elite production profile. His early career production, 100+ targets, 90%+ true catch rate, and a 65%+ first down rate all imply he’s destined for greatness. Hitting in the aforementioned categories puts his career trajectory similar to AJ Green, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown, all of which is explained here:
Finding the next elite dynasty WR! 🧐
To identify when a WR becomes an elite (top-5 WR) prospect, I use 4 Phases:
1) Early Career Production
2) True Catch Rate
3) First Down Rate
4) COE..only ONE 2019 player qualifies 👇#EliteWRs
(1/6)
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) June 18, 2020
Understand that he hit all these thresholds while Kyle Allen – who ranked 27th of 27 quarterbacks in IQR from Sports Info Solutions – was throwing the ball. Any starting level quarterback is an upgrade, and Teddy Bridgewater should be able to deliver. The Panthers also lost multiple defensive starters and have a Vegas projected win total of 5.5. Negative game scripts and high passing volume should ensue, making Moore a healthy volume recipient pairing nicely with Bridgewater’s low average depth of target.
Robert Woods (LAR) ADP: WR18
Finishing as the WR14 last year, Woods has been the model of consistency since entering Los Angeles. With 130 targets and 1,100 yards or more in two straight seasons, his only knock was his low touchdown total of two last year. Brandin Cooks has left his primary targets to be split between him and Cooper Kupp as the main options for the receiving group, so a rise in volume is very plausible if not certain. If you like betting on players with high floors that can only go up should his touchdown rate come back to normal, you will love Woods at ADP.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) ADP: WR24
A month ago, I posted how Washington receiving options are being severely undervalued discussed here. The combination of regression back to league average pass attempts and scoring and Ron Rivera’s second-highest passing rate in 2019 versus Washington’s fifth-worst, all strongly point to a drastic volume increase in 2020. McLaurin’s production is tied to Haskins’ development as a passer, whom I also believe will improve. The combination of historical trends and coaching changes all point up for the second-year receiver. His fantasy finish of WR29 as a rookie with a quarterback carousel shows just how well he performed, and he is being drafted near this same 2019 finish despite the trends mentioned.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) ADP: WR31
Boyd had the seventh-most targets in the NFL last year and the WR18 finish, but you wouldn’t believe that by looking at his ADP of WR31. A multi-year 100-plus target and 1,000-plus yard producer, Boyd enters only his age-25 season. First overall selection Joe Burrow enters the scene as the quarterback after a down season from long-time signal-caller Andy Dalton. The fear of many is the return of stud wideout AJ Green who’s last game was played in December of 2018. Even if Green somehow returns to elite form without missing a step, Boyd’s production profile continual target share of over 22% year after year will keep him productive. Don’t be scared of young, perennial producers like Boyd.
BONUS: Draft Steven Sims (ADP: WR83) in the late rounds pending roster depth for similar reasons, discussed him here.
Quarterback Audibles
Daniel Jones (NYG) ADP: QB16
After a rough start to the year, Jones put together three games of 28 points or more from week 8 on. He averaged 22 rushing yards per game which came in sixth among starters along with the eighth-most passing touchdowns per game. His high turnover rate was concerning, so he will need to protect the ball better. The return of healthy receiving options will undoubtedly benefit his production, as one or multiple players in Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, and Golden Tate all missed at least three games each and played through variations of injuries. Apart from the overwhelming swagger, he and Gardner Minshew are in very similar tiers for me, with Jones winning due to the better depth of receiving options.
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) ADP: QB25
Practically completely free in single quarterback leagues, Bridgewater is my favorite deep round option at quarterback. New coaches Joe Brady and Matt Rhule will try to bring their offensive talents to the Panthers that revolves around spectacular receiving playmakers such as Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel, and additional help in newly acquired Robby Anderson and upcoming tight end Ian Thomas. As mentioned in Moore’s blurb, their losses at defense and projected win total all suggest high passing volume in 2020 for the Panthers, and Bridgewater will be leading the charge with a high powered arsenal of weapons at his disposal.
Tight End Audibles
Hayden Hurst (ATL) ADP: TE13
The Falcons lost Austin Hooper in the offseason and traded a second-round pick to replace him with Hayden Hurst from the Ravens. Hurst was largely ignored in Baltimore while playing second fiddle to breakout candidate Mark Andrews. Even still, he finished the year the third-most receiving yards on the team.
Now consider this, the Ravens passed at the league’s lowest rate of 46% of plays. The Falcons passed at the league’s highest rate at 67% of plays. That’s a difference of 208 more passes throughout the season. Based on this volume alone and the open opportunity in Atlanta, I have him projected to finish easily as a top-6 tight end.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) ADP: TE15
Gesicki’s breakout was seemingly tied to Preston Williams’s injury, and from week 10 on Gesicki was the TE8 with 11.3 PPG. The opt-outs of both Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson will allow Gesicki to continue his league-leading slot rate for tight ends last year in another heavy receiving role. What’s more, is the surge of importance of athleticism in tight ends and how that ties to fantasy production. I dove into these metrics and Gesicki came in second overall in the model from the last seven years, largely because he tested as one of the most athletic tight ends of all time. Continue to bet on his rise and lock him in as a late-round option.
When draft night comes, make sure you have done your research. Straying from ADP only works if you pick the right players, and I believe this list includes the best audibles you can make when you’re on the clock.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.
