NFL DFS Stacking Advice: Week 1 (2021)

Take a deep breath; we have made it. After all the speculation, breakdowns, hot takes, and banter on Twitter, week one of the fantasy football season is upon us. From the dynasty grinders to the redraft faithful to the DFS degenerates, our favorite season has arrived. With the main slate kick-offs approaching, it is time to break down the best stacks on the table for daily fantasy purposes. So, let’s get into the opening week contests.

The money line/spread can be checked here for DraftKings or right here on BettingPros.

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Stacks to Target

DraftKings

Patrick Mahomes (QB - KC) $8100 / Tyreek Hill (WR - KC) $8200 OR Travis Kelce (TE - KC) $8300
For redraft and many dynasty fantasy leagues, Patrick Mahomes is often one of the first, if not the first quarterback to go off the board. Settle into Week 1 of DFS, and it is of little surprise that he starts the season as the highest-priced option at the position. Despite the highest cost, he still fits into the 3x role. He finished with more than his 26.2 fantasy points-per-game average six times last season. The high cost could result in a lower ownership percentage, making him a viable foundation for the more savvy daily fantasy player to build a roster with. Deciding which option to stack him with becomes the immediate challenge. Travis Kelce (23.7) outperformed Tyreek Hill (22.5) on a fantasy points-per-game average by a small margin in DraftKings scoring. With the one-point differential and the extra $1,000 to slot Kelce in, Hill becomes the preferred option to pair with Mahomes for players wanting the octane in those roles.

The biggest counterpoint here is how the Cleveland Browns defense and the offensive scheme are going to roll out. Expect the Browns to be featuring their run game to control the clock. These two teams last met in the 2020 playoffs, and Mahomes finished with 269 combined yards and two total touchdowns. The offensive line has had a significant makeover during the offseason. Expect Mahomes to lead a charge in what is currently the highest implied points total on the slate.

Bear in mind. This stack represents the height of cost, which will make roster construction more complicated.

Russell Wilson (QB - SEA) $7000 / D.K. Metcalf (WR - SEA) $7500 OR Tyler Lockett (WR - SEA) $6700
The fantasy football world saw what could happen if the Seahawks just "let Russ cook" last season. Russell Wilson was the overall QB1 through the first eight weeks of the season. During that span, despite having only the sixth-most passing yards (2,151), he had the most touchdown passes (26) and fantasy points-per-game (30.3) of any quarterback. That kind of success trickled down to the receiving core. During that same span, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf were the WR1 and WR3, respectively.

The Seahawks draw a matchup against the Colts' moderate secondary for week one. DFS players should not be fixated on the defensive matchup without taking into account how porous the Seahawks defense was last season. Aside from the Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks allowed the most production to opposing wide receivers. The Colts can score here, forcing Wilson into a pass-happy approach which in turn leads to fantasy points.

The question becomes which receiver to stack with Chef Wilson. Both receivers averaged just over eight targets per game. The similarities do not end there either. Metcalf averaged 18.5 PPR points per game, while Lockett averaged 16.3 by DK's numbers.

The difference here becomes perceived ceiling and cost. Managers can slot their preferred weapon alongside Russ with confidence, but the $800 discount for Lockett slightly tips the scales his direction for roster construction purposes.

Matt Ryan (QB, -ATL) $6000 / Calvin Ridley (WR - ATL) $7900
Opposing teams with lackluster defenses, now that is how a DFS season should start on the main slate. The Atlanta Falcons host the Philidelphia Eagles in a game that could turn out to exceed the 48.5 implied point total. Matt Ryan has three straight seasons of 600-plus pass attempts and, despite losing his top target, is not in a position to realistically slow down.

Ryan is a volume passer that has finished inside the top-three in pass attempts for the last three seasons, including first overall in this category for the 2020 season. Enter Calvin Ridley from stage left. Ridley finished with 100-plus receiving yards a league-leading eight times last season. His 1,374 receiving yards were good enough for fifth-most among the position and the nine receiving touchdowns just icing on the cake.

The beauty of this stack is that Ryan is 13th overall among quarterbacks in cost, making Ridley's third-highest positional salary more palatable while still leaving room to construct a solid lineup. With an exploitable matchup on both sides of the ball, this one feels like a solid lock and load foundational stack.

Honorable Mentions: Sam Darnold  (QB - CAR) $5000 / Robby Anderson , (WR - CAR) $5700 - Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI) $6400 / Dallas Goedert (TE - PHI) $4800

FanDuel

Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI) $7600 / DeVonta Smith (WR - PHI) $5300 / Dallas Goedert (TE - PHI) $5900
To somewhat echo where we left off, this game has fantasy points drizzled all over it. Jalen Hurts is a strong DFS play in this slate due to his dual-threat ability. While QB scoring in FanDuel only awards four points per passing touchdown, it is a full six points for rushing touchdowns. In four games as the starter last season, Hurts finished with three rushing touchdowns. The Falcons defense, though improved as opposed to last season, should not frighten anyone, especially a quarterback with a proclivity to scramble for big gains.

DeVonta Smith, throughout camp and preseason, appeared to be the kind of receiver this offense has desperately needed since the last soft tissue injury suffered by Alshon Jeffery. At $5300, he is a low-cost, high-ceiling play that could pay off handsomely at the price. For those too nervous to pull the trigger on unproven talent, Dallas Goedert comes in at a reasonable price and a decent expected target share paired with his red-zone presence. The idea is to grab some pieces of this potentially high-scoring affair.

Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN) $7700 / A.J. Brown (WR - TEN) $7800
It is recommended to monitor A.J. Brown's status leading up to game time. Reports out of Titans camp indicate that his recent absence from practice was "just rest." Expectations are that Brown is ready to suit up and play in the opener.

With the second-highest implied point total on the slate, the players in this game should be pieced throughout rosters. The Cardinals offer a fast pace of play against a Titans defense that on paper appears to be middle of the road. They will score and force Ryan Tannehill and company into more passing situations. Tannehill finished last season as the QB7 overall, despite finishing with the second-lowest amount of pass attempts among quarterbacks. His cunning and continued efficiency keep him and his pass-catchers productive. It is also worth mentioning that he finished last season with seven rushing touchdowns, which offer a potential higher-ceiling paired with his already high floor.

Managers looking to save $800 could effectively pivot to Julio Jones.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT) $7100 / Diontae Johnson (WR - PIT) $6600
Sure, rolling 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger out on a week one slate feels, well, kind of gross. Understood. However, the value is there, and the number of people rostering him should remain low and therefore positive for tournament plays. The Steelers defense is very good, but so is Josh Allen. There will be points scored, and the competitive signal-caller will be expected to respond accordingly. Diontae Johnson was fifth among wide receivers in targets on a per-game basis last season. He has the trust of Big Ben, who was one of three quarterbacks with 600-plus pass attempts last season.

Players looking for an absolute home run play could pivot from Johnson and slot in Chase Claypool ($6000) for absolute ceiling potential at the cost of near-guaranteed volume.

Bottom line, while not the most coveted of plays, there will be plenty of volume paired with a low rostering percentage.

Honorable Mentions: Jimmy Garoppolo (QB - SF) $6900 / George Kittle (TE - SF) $7000, Kyler Murray (QB - ARI) $8400 / DeAndre Hopkins (WR -ARI) $8200

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John Hesterman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him @John_Hesterman.