NBA DFS Primer: Saturday (11/20)

Friday’s card was perfect for us! There was a ton of injury news that we capitalized on, leading to one of my most profitable days of the season. We’re in for another wild slate here, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

We had a vast slate on Friday, and we have another big one here. We have eight games making up this Saturday card, with eight teams in the second half of a back-to-back set. Those teams include Boston, Charlotte, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and Sacramento. Look for chaos to ensue with all of that nonsense going on!

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Schedule and Odds

• NOR at IND (IND -7.5) O/U: 215
• MIA at WAS (MIA -1.5) O/U: 211
• CHA at ATL (ATL -6.5) O/U: 227
• OKC at BOS (BOS -10.5) O/U: 206
• ORL at MIL (MIL -11.5) O/U: 212
• MEM at MIN (MIN -1.5) O/U: 218.5
• PHI at POR (POR -6.5) O/U: 217
• UTA at SAC (UTA -7.5) O/U: 224

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Damian Lillard (abdomen) Probable
• Ben Simmons (personal) OUT
• Tyler Herro (wrist) Questionable
• Devonte Graham (foot) Questionable
• Jaylen Brown (hamstring) Doubtful
• PJ Washington (elbow) OUT
• Joel Embiid (COVID) OUT
• Zion Williamson (leg) OUT
• Robert Williams (knee) Doubtful
• Bam Adebayo (knee) Questionable
• Brook Lopez (back) OUT

Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $11,900 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The only question mark with Giannis is if he’ll play the second half of a B2B. If he does, Antetokounmpo is the best play on the board. The superstar just tallied 21 points, 19 rebounds, seven assists, two steals, and four blocks on Friday. That’s scary since he only made six shots, exemplifying what makes him such a dominant fantasy option,

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Morant has taken his game to another level this season. The stud point guard has scored at least 39 DraftKings points in 14 of 15 games, en route to a 48-point average. That’s hard to overlook in a matchup like this, with Minnesota maintaining one of the worst defenses in the NBA since the start of last season. That’s pretty clear when you see that Ja has at least 57 DK points in each of their previous two meetings.

Tobias Harris (PF – PHI): $8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Toby is going to be in this section every game until Joel Embiid returns. With the big man off the floor, Harris leads the team with a 34 percent usage rate while averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. He averaged over 40 fantasy points per game in the 18 games Embiid missed last year and is flirting with the same averages this season. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 26th-ranked Portland defense, either.

Cash Game Considerations

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $9,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Tatum has been a beast without Jaylen Brown. He leads the team with a 32 percent usage rate with JB off the floor, scoring at least 47 DK points in six of his last seven games. That makes it hard to believe he’s still below $10K, especially since he might be asked to do more with Boston playing the second half of a back-to-back set.

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $10,100 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The Grizzlies rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season and will surely struggle with a stud like this. KAT has at least 37 fantasy points in 12 of 15 games this season, generating a 50-point average in those outings. That should be easy to duplicate here, dropping 51 DK points in this matchup just last week.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $7,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Capela has a double-double in four of his last five games, playing at least 32 minutes in all of those. That has led to him averaging 40 DraftKings points per game in that span, an amazing total from a $7K player. We love that in this matchup, with Charlotte ranked fourth in pace and dead-last in points allowed.

GPP Targets

Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Turner has been terrible the last three games, but that snapped one of the best stretches of his career. In fact, Myles had at least 28 DK points in each of his previous nine games, providing a 41-point average in that span. That tells you why he’s a good GPP option because many DFS managers will fade him after the recent struggles. This matchup is an excellent way to get him going, with the Pelicans owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Jusuf Nurkic (C – POR): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Chauncey Billups has been limiting Nurk’s minutes for whatever reason, and it’s made him tough to trust for DFS purposes. In any case, Nurkic has been doing work in those limited minutes, averaging 31.4 DK points across 24.1 minutes a game. That means he’s a candidate for 50-plus if he plays the 30-35 minutes he should play, which could happen here against a big team like Philly.

T.J. McConnell (PG – IND): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Something tells me we might get some Pacers rested. Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon are prime candidates, missing time over the last few weeks. If either of those guys sits, McConnell should start at point guard and become one of the best plays of the day. He’s averaging over 30 DK points per game as a starter since the beginning of last season and should thrive against the worst defense in the NBA.

Value Plays

Marcus Smart (PG/SG – BOS): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Smart has struggled with his shot all year, but the last five games have been impressive. The feisty guard is averaging 13 points, 5.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.6 steals in that span. That equates to nearly 40 fantasy points per game, which is absurd from someone this cheap. A big reason for that is the absence of Brown, and Smart should continue to step up with JB expected to sit yet again.

Mason Plumlee (C – CHA): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Plumlee has quietly had a really satisfying career, and he’s in the midst of another solid season. The big man has scored at least 23 DraftKings points in 10 of 16 games this year, which is really all you can ask for from someone this cheap. Charlotte playing without PJ Washington has forced Mason into even more minutes than usual, and we expect him to play 30-plus here to oppose a beast like Capela.

Robert Covington (PF – POR): $3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
RoCo has been horrible at times this season, but this dude used to be between $6,000-$7,000 just last season. He’s shown flashes of that player recently, scoring at least 25 DK points in six of his last nine games. That might not sound like much, but that’s a 6X floor from a sub-$4K player. Good luck finding that from another guy this cheap.

Advantageous Pricing

• Marcus Smart (PG/SG – BOS): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
• Robert Covington (PF – POR): $3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
• LaMelo Ball (PG/SG – CHA): $10,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
• Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI): $7,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
• Dennis-schroder.php” class=”fp-player-link fp-id-2780″ target=”_blank”>Dennis Schroder (PG – BOS): $6,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
• Bradlet Beal (SG – WAS): $9,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
• Franz Wagner (SG/SF – ORL): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
• Jaren Jackson Jr (PF/C – MEM): $6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
• Jonas Valanciunas (C – NOR): $9,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
• Mo Bamba (C – ORL): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
• Richaun Holmes (C – SAC): $6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

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