In dynasty leagues, player values are constantly changing, and you need to stay on top of these changes to be successful long-term. This dynasty stock report comes in as I discuss four players each week, two on the rise and two falling, both at the MLB level and in the minors as well.
This week’s report features a resurgent former top prospect, a struggling top-100 pick, and two exciting shortstop prospects quickly trending in opposite directions.
MLB Riser
After going from No. 1 pitching prospect to potential bust quickly, MacKenzie Gore has risen from the ashes this season and told all his doubters to stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. In 42 innings with San Diego this season, Gore has recorded a pristine 1.71 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with an 8.4% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate. He appears to be getting stronger and more comfortable with each start, leading up to seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Pirates in his last outing.
MacKenzie Gore’s bringin’ it. pic.twitter.com/U4LwBBE7ky
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) April 16, 2022
This season, Gore has been mixing four pitches with his fastball, curveball, and slider accounting for 95% of his total pitches. The fastball has averaged 95.3 mph with a .208 BAA, .245 SLG, and .233 wOBA and has been Gore’s best pitch thus far with a -10 run value according to Baseball Savant. Gore’s slider has been highly effective, too, with a .169 BAA, .222 SLG, .247 wOBA, and a 39.2% whiff rate despite having below-average horizontal and vertical movement.
While I’m buying into Gore’s recent success, given how he’s looked along with his prospect pedigree, I’m not buying him to this extent. There’s no doubting Gore has undoubtedly impressed, and the stat line is phenomenal, but many of his metrics are around league average, give or take. This includes his whiff, chase, and zone contact rates. I’m buying Gore as a top-40 starter moving forward and maybe even top-25 at some point, but it wouldn’t hurt to see what you can get for him right now in dynasty leagues. Don’t sell him for the sake of selling him, but you might be able to get someone to overpay given that prospect pedigree and current surface stats.
MLB Faller
There’s been a massive offensive outage in Detroit this season. The Tigers currently rank 27th in AVG, 29th in OBP, 30th in SLG, 30th in home runs, 29th in doubles, and have 30 fewer runs scored than the second-lowest team (Pittsburgh). When you break this mess down to the individual player level, five Detroit hitters with over 100 PA are hitting below .200 right now, and right in the middle of that is their recent big-money acquisition, Javier Baez.
After a 1/5 showing on Sunday, Baez’s slash line sits at a puke-worthy .195/.236/.302 with three homers, 13 RBI, 10 runs, and zero steals. Out of 167 qualified hitters this season, Baez currently has the sixth-worst wOBA and wRC+.
That’s gotten even worse in May, too, with a .152/.198/.219 slash line. Many of us wondered where the power would be at given his move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, but this is far worse than even the biggest Baez naysayer could’ve anticipated. Baez’s hard-hit and barrel rates have dropped 13.1% and 5.8%, respectively, with his AVG EV sinking from 90.1 mph to 88.3 mph. The below tweet encapsulates Baez’s entire season in one three-pitch at-bat.
Adrian Martinez vs. Javier Báez.
It's almost like Báez was hunting to reach on a dropped 3rd strike the whole ab. 😂 pic.twitter.com/bNT3UgxKzp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2022
On a positive note, Baez has trimmed his strikeout rate slightly while improving his zone contact rate. But his lesser quality of contact metrics has more than offset those minimal improvements. And while the strikeout and zone contact rates have improved, Baez still sports his usual lofty chase and whiff rates that rank among the worst in baseball.
With all this said, at least Baez is still running and providing value through stolen bases, right? Wrong. As we enter the month of June, Baez has yet to even attempt a steal this season after swiping 18 in 23 attempts last season. His sprint speed has also declined.
There aren’t many positive metrics to discuss in Baez’s profile right now, and his dynasty value is tanking because of it. Some may say that this is just the usual streaky Baez going through one of his slumps, and he’ll be fine moving forward. That may be true to a degree, but Baez’s new home ballpark simply isn’t a great fit for him, and he’s not running more. That power/speed blend made his inconsistencies tolerable, but not anymore.
MiLB Riser
Before the 2022 season began, I had Kahlil Watson ranked inside my top-30 and Ezequiel Tovar around 150 overall. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I’d be slotting Tovar ahead of Watson before the end of May, but here we are.
As a 20-year-old in Double-A, Tovar has impressed. In 42 games this season, Tovar has racked up 10 doubles, 10 home runs, and 16 steals (1 CS) with a stellar .327/.412/.601 slash line, .274 ISO, and .436 wOBA across 192 plate appearances. And when you add in his 2021 stats, Tovar has 25 homers, and 40 steals with a .298 AVG in 156 games. Not too shabby. Oh yeah, he’s still only 20 years old and doing all this in the cold-weather, pitcher-friendly Double-A Eastern League.
With his power developing nicely this season, Tovar’s value has skyrocketed. He already showed above-average or better contact skills with plus speed and a solid approach, and this power boost is the final piece of his prospect puzzle. With Tovar’s combination of tools and his performance relative to age and level, there’s no logical reason he shouldn’t be considered a top-25 dynasty prospect moving forward, or at the very least, in the conversation.
MiLB Faller
Speaking of Kahlil Watson, his stock is falling nearly as quickly as Tovar’s is rising. OK, that’s a bit harsh, and Watson is still a top-50 prospect for me right now, but the strikeout issue is a major red flag moving forward. Through his first 39 games as a professional, Watson has struck out a whopping 71 times for a 42.3% strikeout rate. It’s great that he has six homers and nine steals so far, but five of those six homers came in April. In May, Watson does have six steals, but those only come with one lone home run, a 41.5% strikeout rate, and a .171/.223/.227 slash line.
That said, it’s FAR too early to jump ship on Watson in dynasty leagues. It’s been 39 games, and this was a prospect considered top-20 overall by some just a month or two ago, myself included. Watson possesses an exciting power/speed blend with electric bat speed and can impact the ball when he makes contact.
The whole making contact aspect of the game has been a significant issue for him. In addition to the astronomical strikeout rate, Watson’s contact rate currently sits at a lowly 54.5%. The further apart your contact rate and strikeout rates are, the better. Watson makes for a solid buy-low target in dynasty given the upside, but his stock is currently in a downward swing.
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