The MLB trade deadline is typically an exciting time for baseball and fantasy baseball fans. With players changing teams, their fantasy stock can fluctuate.
Juan Soto’s blockbuster trade to San Diego was the most significant trade of the 2022 deadline. He will likely see an uptick in fantasy value moving to a better offense, but many other players gained value too.
Several players lost significant fantasy value due to deadline moves, including players who did not even change teams.
Today’s column will review players whose fantasy stock has either risen or fallen now that the dust has settled and the deadline deals have been made.
Tyler Mahle (SP – MIN) 4.76 ERA in CIN
Tyler Mahle gets a massive upgrade in fantasy baseball value with his move to Minnesota from Cincinnati.
This season, he had a 4.76 ERA at home compared to a 3.83 ERA away. His career ERA in Great American Ballpark is 5.02, compared to a 3.74 career ERA away from home.
Mahle has struggled to pick up wins this season but should have a chance to earn more with his move to the Twins. He gets a major upgrade in offensive support as Minnesota is in the top half of the league in most offensive categories.
He should continue to see success with a 9.38 K/9 rate and better than average hard contact metrics. His .289 BABIP is a bit lower than his career average, but he has done well to limit line drives this season, with a 17.4% LD rate, suggesting that his ERA is likely to not spike.
It is likely his luck will continue to improve in a new home. His ERA is 4.40, but he has a 3.96 xFIP and a 3.80 SIERA. Now is the time to buy Mahle before it is too late.
Trey Mancini (1B, OF – HOU) 9.6% HR/FB rate
Trey Mancini is another player who should see his stock increase in a new location. Despite what many may think, Baltimore’s offense is not far behind Houston’s, so this is not a massive upgrade in fantasy value for Mancini.
One issue Mancini has faced this season is a 9.6% HR/FB rate, which is 9.2% lower than his career average, meaning that he has been extremely unlucky in terms of home runs. Moving to Houston’s lineup could potentially fix that problem.
Houston is ninth in team barrel rate and 10th in team hard-hit rate, two spots ahead of Baltimore in both categories. According to ESPN’s park factors metric, Houston has performed better than Baltimore as a hitter’s park this season.
Mancini also possesses a 9.9% barrel rate and a 42.3% hard-hit rate this year, similar to 2019 when he hit 35 homers and in 2017 and 2018 when he homered 24 times each season.
Mancini is an excellent target in fantasy leagues for players looking to buy relatively low on a multi-position eligible player.
Santiago Espinal (2B – TOR) 3.7% Barrel rate
Santiago Espinal is one player whose stock is likely headed down, even though he did not change teams. With Whit Merrifield potentially taking over second base, chances are Espinal is the odd man out in Toronto.
If Espinal had better metrics behind him, he could make a case to stay on the field, but his background data is ugly.
He has a 3.7% barrel rate and a 32.4% hard-hit rate, both well below average. He also does not possess much pop (six home runs) or speed (five steals). He has a slight advantage over Merrifield in batting average – .265 for Espinal and .240 for Merrifield – otherwise, Merrifield is a clear upgrade.
While both second basemen have six home runs, Espinal has a higher HR/FB rate than usual, and Merrifield has a lower rate than normal, meaning Espinal has been lucky and Merrifield has been unlucky when it comes to homers (although neither will hit for much power the rest of the season).
Espinal is one of many players in this position who will suffer because of their teams’ acquisitions. Fantasy managers will need to adjust accordingly.
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